Spatial Variation in CO_(2) Concentration Improves the Simulated Surface Air Temperature Increase in the Northern Hemisphere

The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO_(2) since the Industrial Revolution has affected surface air temperature.However,the impact of the spatial distribution of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration on surface air temperature biases remains highly unclear.By incorporating the spatial distribution of satellite-derived atmospheric CO_(2) concentration in the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model,this study investigated the increase in surface air temperature since the Industrial Revolution in the Northern Hemisphere(NH) under historical conditions from 1976-2005.In comparison with the increase in surface temperature simulated using a uniform distribution of CO_(2),simulation with a nonuniform distribution of CO_(2)produced better agreement with the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) data in the NH under the historical condition relative to the baseline over the period 1901-30.Hemispheric June-July-August(JJA) surface air temperature increased by 1.28℃ ±0.29℃ in simulations with a uniform distribution of CO_(2),by 1.00℃±0.24℃ in simulations with a non-uniform distribution of CO_(2),and by 0.24℃ in the CRU data.The decrease in downward shortwave radiation in the non-uniform CO_(2) simulation was primarily attributable to reduced warming in Eurasia,combined with feedbacks resulting from increased leaf area index(LAI) and latent heat fluxes.These effects were more pronounced in the non-uniform CO_(2)simulation compared to the uniform CO_(2) simulation.Results indicate that consideration of the spatial distribution of CO_(2)concentration can reduce the overestimated increase in surface air temperature simulated by Earth system models.

Evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis temperature data over the Qilian Mountains of China

Air temperature is an important indicator to analyze climate change in mountainous areas.ERA5 reanalysis air temperature data are important products that were widely used to analyze temperature change in mountainous areas.However,the reliability of ERA5 reanalysis air temperature over the Qilian Mountains(QLM)is unclear.In this study,we evaluated the reliability of ERA5 monthly averaged reanalysis 2 m air temperature data using the observations at 17 meteorological stations in the QLM from 1979 to 2017.The results showed that:ERA5 reanalysis monthly averaged air temperature data have a good applicability in the QLM in general(R2=0.99).ERA5 reanalysis temperature data overestimated the observed temperature in the QLM in general.Root mean square error(RMSE)increases with the increasing of elevation range,showing that the reliability of ERA5 reanalysis temperature data is worse in higher elevation than that in lower altitude.ERA5 reanalysis temperature can capture observational warming rates well.All the smallest warming rates of observational temperature and ERA5 reanalysis temperature are found in winter,with the warming rates of 0.393°C/10a and 0.360°C/10a,respectively.This study will provide a reference for the application of ERA5 reanalysis monthly averaged air temperature data at different elevation ranges in the Qilian Mountains.

Factors Influencing the Spatial Variability of Air Temperature Urban Heat Island Intensity in Chinese Cities

Few studies have investigated the spatial patterns of the air temperature urban heat island(AUHI)and its controlling factors.In this study,the data generated by an urban climate model were used to investigate the spatial variations of the AUHI across China and the underlying climate and ecological drivers.A total of 355 urban clusters were used.We performed an attribution analysis of the AUHI to elucidate the mechanisms underlying its formation.The results show that the midday AUHI is negatively correlated with climate wetness(humid:0.34 K;semi-humid:0.50 K;semi-arid:0.73 K).The annual mean midnight AUHI does not show discernible spatial patterns,but is generally stronger than the midday AUHI.The urban–rural difference in convection efficiency is the largest contributor to the midday AUHI in the humid(0.32±0.09 K)and the semi-arid(0.36±0.11 K)climate zones.The release of anthropogenic heat from urban land is the dominant contributor to the midnight AUHI in all three climate zones.The rural vegetation density is the most important driver of the daytime and nighttime AUHI spatial variations.A spatial covariance analysis revealed that this vegetation influence is manifested mainly through its regulation of heat storage in rural land.

Surface air temperature change in the Wuyi Mountains,southeast China

Detecting changes in surface air temperature in mid-and low-altitude mountainous regions is essential for a comprehensive understanding of warming trend with altitude.We use daily surface air temperature data from 64 meteorological stations in Wuyi Mountains and its adjacent regions to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature change.The results show that Wuyi Mountains have experienced significant warming from 1961 to 2018.The warming trend of the mean temperature is 0.20℃/decade,the maximum temperature is 0.17℃/decade,and the minimum temperature is 0.26℃/decade.In 1961-1990,more than 63%of the stations showed a decreasing trend in annual mean temperature,mainly because the maximum temperature decreased during this period.However,in 1971-2000,1981-2010 and 1991-2018,the maximum,minimum and mean temperatures increased.The fastest increasing trend of mean temperature occurred in the southeastern coastal plains,the quickest increasing trend of maximum temperature occurred in the northwestern mountainous region,and the increase of minimum temperature occurred faster in the southeastern coastal and northwestern mountainous regions than that in the central area.Meanwhile,this study suggests that elevation does not affect warming in the Wuyi Mountains.These results are beneficial for understanding climate change in humid subtropical middle and low mountains.

Effects of temperature, particle size, and air humidity on sensibility of typical high-energetic explosives

The production and utilization of high-energetic explosives often pose a range of safety hazards,with sensitivity being a key factor in evaluating these risks.To investigate how temperature,particle size,and air humidity affect the responsiveness of commonly used high-energetic explosives,a series of BAM(Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und-prüfung)impact and friction sensitivity tests were carried out to determine the critical impact energy and critical load pressure of four representative high-energetic explosives(RDX,HMX,PETN and CL-20)under different temperatures,particle sizes,and air humidity conditions.The experimental findings facilitated an examination of temperature and particle size affecting the sensitivity of high-energetic explosives,along with an assessment of the influence of air humidity on sensitivity testing.The results clearly indicate that high-energetic explosives display a substantial decline in critical reaction energy when subjected to micrometre-sized particles and an air humidity level of 45%at a temperature of 90℃.Furthermore,it was noted that the critical reaction energy of high-energetic explosives diminishes with an increase in temperature within 25℃−90℃.In the same vein,as the particle sizes of high-energetic explosives increase,so does the critical reaction energy for micrometre-sized particles.High air humidity significantly affects the sensitivity testing of high-energetic explosives,emphasizing the importance of refraining from conducting sensitivity tests in such conditions.

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Antarctic surface air temperature during 1900 to 2015

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.

Response of Rice Cultivars to Elevated Air Temperature and Soil Amendments: Implications towards Climate Change Adaptations and Mitigating Global Warming Potentials

Global mean surface air temperature is expected to increase 1.1˚C - 6.4˚C by the end of 21st century which may affect rice productivity and methane emissions in the future climate. This experiment was conducted to investigate the response of rice cultivars to elevated air temperature (+1.5˚C higher than ambient) and soil amendments in regards to rice yield, yield scaled methane emissions and global warming potentials. The experimental findings revealed that replacement of inorganic fertilizers (20% - 40% of recommended NPKS) with Vermicompost, Azolla biofertilizer, enriched sugarcane pressmud, rice husk biochar and silicate fertilization increased rice yield 13.0% - 23.0%, and 11.0% - 19.0% during wet aman and dry boro season, respectively. However, seasonal cumulative CH4 fluxes were decreased by 9.0% - 25.0% and 5.0% - 19.0% during rainfed wet aman and irrigated dry boro rice cultivation, respectively with selected soil amendments. The maximum reduction in seasonal cumulative CH4 flux (19.0% - 25.0%) was recorded with silicate fertilization and azolla biofertilizer amendments (9.0% - 13.0%), whereas maximum grain yield increment 10.0 % - 14.0% was found with Vermicompost and Sugarcane pressmud amendments compared to chemical fertilization (100% NPKS) treated soils at ambient air temperature. However, rice grain yield decreased drastically 43.0% - 50.0% at elevated air temperature (3˚C higher than ambient air temperature), eventhough accelerated the total cumulative CH4 flux as well as GWPs in all treatments. Maximum seasonal mean GWPs were calculated at 391.0 kg CO2 eq·ha−1 in rice husk biochar followed by sugarcane pressmud (mean GWP 387.0 kg CO2 eq·ha−1), while least GWPs were calculated at 285 - 305 kg CO2 eq·ha−1 with silicate fertilizer and Azolla biofertilizer amendments. Rice cultivar BRRI dhan 87 revealed comparatively higher seasonal cumulative CH4 fluxes, yield scaled CH4 flux and GWPs than BRRI dhan 71 during wet aman rice growing season;while BRRI dhan 89 showed higher cumulative CH4 flux and GWPs than BINA dhan 10 during irrigated boro rice cultivation. Conclusively, inorganic fertilizers may be partially (20% - 40% of the recommended NPKS) replaced with Vermicompost, azolla biofertilizer, silicate fertilizer and enriched sugarcane pressmud compost for sustainable rice production and decreasing GWPs under elevated air temperature condition.

Urban Surroundings Influence on Air Temperature in a Small Urban Area of Curitiba-Brazil

The formation of urban climates constitutes a distinctive system intrinsically linked to the urban environment. This study aims to delve into the impact of the urban environment on climatic variables. The Urban Weather Generator (UWG) algorithm was employed to generate climatic data, facilitating the creation of an epw climate file that corresponds to the urban characteristics surrounding the Centro Politécnico campus at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR). Comprehensive analyses encompassing land use, occupancy patterns, albedo, surface absorption, anthropogenic heat, and architectural attributes were conducted. A comparative assessment between the UWG-derived air temperature values and meteorological station data revealed that the UWG effectively characterizes the air temperature patterns around the UFPR campus. The anticipated air temperature values consistently surpass the original dataset (SWERA), which was utilized as input, primarily during the hours from 3 p.m. to 7 a.m., showcasing the unmistakable urban heat island phenomenon.

Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models

评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显著预测技巧,模式对于夏季SAT表现出最佳的预测水平.与外部强迫相比,模式对于SAT的预测技巧可能来自初始化.模式中的一个明显系统性误差值得注意,即模式中冬季SAT的变率可以持续到其他季节,而在观测中其他季节的SAT变化与冬季SAT相对独立.

Research on Air Temperature Variation Characteristics and Trend in Tacheng Prefecture in Xinjiang during 1954-2008

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the changes characteristics of temperature in Tacheng.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature from 1955 to 2008 in four typical meteorology station,Tacheng,Hebukesai’er,Tuoli and Wusu,the temperature multi-temporal scale characteristics and changes trend in future in Tacheng were expounded by small wave analysis and climate trend coefficient method.[Result] The average temperature in so many years in Tacheng was 5.88 ℃.The annual changes of temperature were relatively stable.The coefficient of changes were between 0.130-0.265.The extreme value was between 1.73-3.79;the sequence distribution of temperature showed plat peak form and the annual average temperature was divergence.The temperature in Tacheng had 5-year,9-year and 14-year period.It was in cold period in 1970 when average temperature was only 3.77 ℃.The 1980s was the warmest age in recent 54 years,reaching 8.10℃.In recent 90s,and comparing with 80s,temperature in Tacheng was decreasing,but still higher than that in 70s.It was forecasted that the temperature in future would increase.The annual average temperature in each area and the average temperature in each season in Tacheng increased significantly,with a range of 1.15-2.05 ℃/10 a.The smallest temperature increase speed in summer was 0.16-0.45 ℃/10 a.The annual average temperature changes speed was 0.40-0.78 ℃/10 a.[Conclusion] The temperature changes in Tacheng had positive corresponding trend toward the climate warming.

Monitoring of Summer High Temperature Damage by Using MODIS Data to Estimate Air Temperature

[Objective] This study was to monitor the hot damage of high temperature on rice in summer by using MODIS data to estimate air temperature. [Method] A new statistical algorithm was introduced for daytime air temperature （Ta） retrievals over east China by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data, and the high temperature monitoring for rice in south China in 2007 summer was used to demonstrate. [Result] High temperature plays a key role in rice production during rice heading stage in summer in southern China. Using MODIS data to monitor the hot damage of high temperature is a feasible way to relieve agricultural disasters. [Conclusion] The result of this study provided a method to monitor hot damage of high temperature tn rice in summer of China.

A Preliminary Analysis of the Relationship between Longan Canopy Temperature and Air Temperature during Overwintering Period

[Objective] The study aimed to provide supports for developing chilling and freezing injury monitoring and disaster damage assessment of longan(Dimocarpus Longan Lour.).[Method] Based on field observation data,the relationships between longan canopy temperature and air temperature under different weather types(sunny,cloudy to sunny,cloudy,rainy,radiation chilling injury and advection chilling injury)in 2007-2008 winter were analyzed.[Result] Diurnal variations of longan canopy temperature under sunny and radiation chilling injury weather conditions were most dramatic,followed with those under cloudy to sunny condition,while variations under cloudy,rainy and advection chilling injury conditions were mild.Diurnal variations of orchard air temperature were also closely related to weather types.By using linear and curvilinear regression methods,the relationship models between longan canopy temperature and observation station air temperature were established.The models for cloudy,rainy and advection chilling injury had better effects than those for sunny,cloudy to sunny and radiation chilling injury;the models for night were better than those for daytime and the whole day.[Conclusion] To some extent,applying the relationship models between longan canopy temperature and observation station air temperature could make up the shortcoming of meteorological data which were higher than the real values.

Detecting and Adjusting Temporal Inhomogeneity in Chinese Mean Surface Air Temperature Data

Adopting the Easterling-Peterson (EP) techniques and considering the reality of Chinese meteorological observations, this paper designed several tests and tested for inhomogeneities in all Chinese historical surface air temperature series from 1951 to 2001. The result shows that the time series have been widely impacted by inhomogeneities resulting from the relocation of stations and changes in local environment such as urbanization or some other factors. Among these factors, station relocations caused the largest magnitude of abrupt changes in the time series, and other factors also resulted in inhomogeneities to some extent. According to the amplitude of change of the difference series and the monthly distribution features of surface air temperatures, discontinuities identified by applying both the E-P technique and supported by China's station history records, or by comparison with other approaches, have been adjusted. Based on the above processing, the most significant temporal inhomogeneities were eliminated, and China's most homogeneous surface air temperature series has thus been created. Results show that the inhomogeneity testing captured well the most important change of the stations, and the adjusted dataset is more reliable than ever. This suggests that the adjusted temperature dataset has great value of decreasing the uncertaities in the study of observed climate change in China.

A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s

This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer （June,July and August）.Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Prediction of Decadal Variability of East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on IPCC-AR5 Near-term Climate Simulations

Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 （The Fifth Assessment Report）, probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction （PMME） of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia （20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E） was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing （GED） methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal （1981-2010） mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades （2006-35） over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 （Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2） scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K （30 yr）-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn （mainly）, faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.

Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3

Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.

Temporal and spatial variation of annual mean air temperature in arid and semiarid region in northwest China over a recent 46 year period

We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using the REOF method we divided the region into 4 sub-regions:the Northern region,the Plateau region,the Southern Xinjiang region and the Eastern region.The region’s annual mean air temperature transition has regional differences.The Plateau and Southern Xinjiang re-gions got warmer steadily without any obvious acceleration in the rate of warming.The Northern region’s warming started about 5-years earlier than that of the low latitude Eastern region.The ’Startup region’ of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,appears to undergo temperature changes 3 to 10 years earlier than the other regions,and exhibits inter-decadal variations 1 to 2 years ahead of the other regions.

Temperature Difference Between the Air and Organs of Rice Plant and Its Relation to Spikelet Fertility

Based on the experiment of measuring panicles and leaves, air temperature, and humidity above the canopy of rice cultivars after heading in 2005 and 2006, we investigated the temperature difference （TD） between the air and organs of rice plant and its relationship with spikelet fertility. The results showed that TDs between the air and organs of rice varied with air temperature, air humidity, and plant type. For similar air humidity, TDs were lower at the air temperature of 28.5℃ than at higher temperature of 35.5℃, whereas for the same air temperature, the TDs decreased as the air humidity increased. TDs were also affected by plant type of the cultivars. Erect panicle cultivars showed higher TDs than those with droopy panicles under similar climatic conditions, and cultivars with panicles above flag leaf （PAFL） had higher TDs than those with panicles below the flag leaf （PBFL）. Cultivars grown in a location with lower air humidity and higher temperature, such as Taoyuan, China, had higher spikelet fertility than those in higher humidity under the similar air temperature during the grain filling stage. This is partially attributed to the larger TDs under the lower humidity. Rowspacing and the ratio of basal-tillering to panicle-spikelet fertilizer showed a significant influence on TD and subsequently on spikelet fertility, suggesting the possibility of increasing spikelet fertility by agronomic management.

Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.

Predicting Winter Surface Air Temperature in Northeast China

The author investigates the prediction of Northeast China's winter surface air temperature (SAT),and first forecast the year to year increment in the predic-tand and then predict the predictand.Thus,in the first step,we determined the predictors for an increment in winter SAT by analyzing the atmospheric variability associated with an increment in winter SAT.Then,multi-linear re-gression was applied to establish a prediction model for an increment in winter SAT in Northeast China.The pre-diction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.73) between the simulated and observed annual increments in winter SAT in Northeast China throughout the period 1965-2002,with a relative root mean square error of -7.9%.The prediction model makes a reasonable hindcast for 2003-08,with an average relative root mean square error of -7.2%.The prediction model can capture the in-creasing trend of winter SAT in Northeast China from 1965-2008.The results suggest that this approach to forecasting an annual increment in winter SAT in North-east China would be relevant in operational seasonal forecasts.