Spatial Distribution of Large-scale Landslides Induced by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake

The 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 induced hundreds of large-scale landslides. This paper systematically analyzes 112 large-scale landslides (surface area > 50000 m2), which were identified by interpretation of remote sensing imagery and field investigations. The analysis suggests that the distribution of large-scale landslides is affected by the following four factors: (a) distance effect: 80% of studied large-scale landslides are located within a distance of 5 km from the seismic faults. The farther the distance to the faults, the lower the number of large-scale landslides; (b) locked segment effect: the large-scale landslides are mainly located in five concentration zones closely related with the crossing, staggering and transfer sections between one seismic fault section and the next one, as well as the end of the NE fault section. The zone with the highest concentration was the Hongbai-Chaping segment, where a great number of large-scale landslides including the two largest landslides were located. The second highest concentration of large-scale landslides was observed in the Nanba-Donghekou segment at the end of NE fault, where the Donghekou landslide and the Woqian landslide occurred; (c) Hanging wall effect: about 70% of the large-scale landslides occurred on the hanging wall of the seismic faults; and (d) direction effect: in valleys perpendicular to the seismic faults, the density of large-scale landslides on the slopes facing the seismic wave is obviously higher than that on the slopes dipping in the same direction as the direction of propagation of the seismic wave. Meanwhile, it is found that the sliding and moving directions of large-scale landslides are related to the staggering direction of the faults in each section. In Qingchuan County where the main fault activity was horizontal twisting and staggering, a considerable number of landslides showed the feature of sliding and moving in NE direction which coincides with the staggering direction of the seismic faults.

Insights into some large-scale landslides in southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(SMQTP)is of a typical large landslide-prone area due to intense tectonic activity,deeply incised valleys,high geostress and frequent earthquakes.To gain insights into large landslides in southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,an area covering 3.34×105 km2 that extends 80e150 km on both sides of the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridors(G318)was used to examine the spatial distribution and corresponding characteristics of landslides.The results showed that the study area contains at least 629 large landslides that are mainly concentrated on 7 zones(zones IeVII).Zones IeVII are in the southern section of the Longmenshan fault zone(with no large river)and sections with Dadu River,Jinsha River,Lancang River,Nujiang River and Yarlung Zangbo River.There are more landslides in the Jinsha River section(totaling 186 landslides)than the other sections.According to the updated Varnes classification,408 large landslides(64.9%)were recognized and divided into 4 major types,i.e.flows(275 cases),slides(58 cases),topples(44 cases)and slope deformations(31 cases).Flows,which consist of rock avalanches and iceerock avalanches,are the most common landslide type.Large landslide triggers(178 events,28.3%)are also recognized,and earthquakes may be the most common trigger.Due to the limited data,these landslide type classifications and landslide triggers are perhaps immature,and further systematic analysis is needed.

Freely accessible inventory and spatial distribution of large-scale landslides in Xianyang City,Shaanxi Province,China

In this study, we used high-resolution optical satellite images on the Google Earth platform to map large-scale landslides in Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province, China. After mapping, a comprehensive and detailed large-scale landslide inventory that contains 2 924 large-scale landslides was obtained. We analyzed the spatial distribu-tion of landslides with seven influencing factors, including elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, lithology, distance to a river, and distance to the fault. Landslide Number, Landslide Area, Landslide Number Density(LND), and Landslide Area Percentage(LAP) were selected as indexes for the spatial distribution analysis. The results show that the number and area of landslides in the elevation range of 1 000–1 200 m is the highest. The highest number of landslides was observed in the slope angle of 25°–30°. North-facing slopes are prone to sliding. The area and number of landslides are the largest when the slope curvature ranges from-1.28 to 0. The LND and LAP reach their maxima when the slope curvature is less than-2.56. Areas covered by the Tertiary stratum with weakened fine-grained sandstone and siltstone show the highest LND and LAP values. Regarding distance to a river, the LAP peaks in the range of 300–600 m, whereas the LND peaks in an area larger than 2100 m. The values of LND and LNP rise as the distance from the faults increases, except for the locations 30 km away from active faults. This phenomenon is because active faults in this area pass through the plain areas, while landslides mostly occur in mountainous areas. The cataloging of landslide development in Xianyang City provides a significant scientific foundation for future research on landslides. In addition, the spatial distribution results are useful for landslide hazard prevention decisions and provide valuable references in this area.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using RBFN-Based Ensemble Machine Learning Models

This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.

Large-scale Rock Landslide Slip Surface Location Analysis and Strength Parameters Evaluation

Large-scale rock landslides have huge impacts on various large-scale rock engineering and project operations. They are also important aspects evaluating geological disasters. In the initial evaluations on the stability of large-scale rock landslides, in most cases, it is difficult to conduct evaluation or to have accurate evaluations because most of large-scale rock landslides are huge in size, high in slopes, and located in the canyon of mountains, which makes the exploration very difficult and thus hard to get credible data on slip surface form, location, depth and strength. This paper describes the Badi landslide happened along the Lancang River, and systematically introduces methods to analyze and verify large-scale slip surface form using terrain conditions surrounding the large-scale landslide, shape of the slide walls, and development patterns of streams and gully. This paper also introduces ways to obtain strength parameters of slip surface with the soil in the slide zone by using the principles of stress state, principles of gravity compaction, structure regeneration and strength regeneration. It is confirmed that analyzed results to the slip surface are basically consistent with the exploration results. The methods introduced here have been successfully applied to evaluate the stability of Badi large-scale rock landslide and have been applied in engineering practices.

Formation and reactivation mechanisms of large-scale ancient landslides in the Longwu River basin in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, China

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau exhibits steep topography and strong internal or external dynamic geological effect and is frequently subjected to strong earthquakes and heavy rainfall. The geological evolution has resulted in a wide distribution of ancient landslides, which has become a hotspot for studying ancient landslide formation and reactivation. In recent decades, several ancient landslides on both banks of the Longwu River, Qinghai Province, China were reactivated, causing serious economic losses and casualties. This study conducted remote sensing interpretation and ground surveys on these ancient landslides. Totally 59 ancient landslides were identified, and the formation mechanism, evolution process, and resurrection mechanism of the Longwu Xishan No.2 ancient landslide were analyzed by means of a detailed field geological survey, drilling, and series of experimental tests such as the particle size distribution test, the Xray diffraction test and the mechanical properties test. The results show that the formation of these ancient landslides is closely associated with the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the erosion of the Longwu River. Firstly, the intermittent uplift of the Tibetan Plateau lead to the diversion and downcutting of the Longwu River basin, which forms the alternate slope topography with steep and slow slopes, thereby providing favourable topography and slope structure conditions for the formation of landslides. Secondly, 34.5% clay-mineral content in the Neoproterozoic mudstone with 32.7% particle size less than 0.005 mm, and the corrosion and softening effects of the Neogene mudstone with high clay mineral content under the erosion of water provides favourable material conditions for the formation of landslides. Thirdly, rainfall and human activities are the primary triggering factors for the revival of this ancient landslide group. It is revealed that the evolution process of the ancient landslides on both banks of the Longwu River can be divided into five stages namely tectonic rapid uplift slope formation, river erosion creep-sliding deformation, slope instability critical status, landslide failure-movement-accumulation, and slope reactivation under rainfall erosion and engineering excavation.

Stability and deformation of Xiaozhuang landslide: A large-scale creeping landslide in Gansu, China

Information about the long-term spatiotemporal evolution of landslides can improve our understanding of the landslide development process and can help prevent landslide disasters.This paper describes the Xiaozhuang landslide triggered by a historical earthquake and rainfall in Tianshui,Northwest China.The landslide is dominated by rotational-sliding movement.Several new failures and many fissures formed in the landslide area as a result of the 2013 Ms 6.6 Minxian earthquake and rainfall.Accordingly,field investigations,borehole drilling,geotechnical laboratory tests,and numerical calculations were conducted to study the mechanism of the landslide and to forecast its stability.A triaxial creep test of the slip soil indicates that the axial deformation of the mudstone increases with increasing water content.Numerical simulations suggest that failure is prone to occur within the deep part of the landslide under earthquake conditions.If the input seismic acceleration exceeds 0.2 g,the landslide will become unstable.Furthermore,the horizontal peak ground acceleration near the surface of the landslide is greater than that at depth.During a strong earthquake,the unstable regions are primarily located in the middle of the landslide and at its crest.When the rainfall intensity rate is 200 mm/d,the factor of safety is 1.319 and a dangerous zone appears in the lower and middle parts of the landslide.

Uncertainties in landslide susceptibility prediction:Influence rule of different levels of errors in landslide spatial position

The accuracy of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)mainly depends on the precision of the landslide spatial position.However,the spatial position error of landslide survey is inevitable,resulting in considerable uncertainties in LSP modeling.To overcome this drawback,this study explores the influence of positional errors of landslide spatial position on LSP uncertainties,and then innovatively proposes a semi-supervised machine learning model to reduce the landslide spatial position error.This paper collected 16 environmental factors and 337 landslides with accurate spatial positions taking Shangyou County of China as an example.The 30e110 m error-based multilayer perceptron(MLP)and random forest(RF)models for LSP are established by randomly offsetting the original landslide by 30,50,70,90 and 110 m.The LSP uncertainties are analyzed by the LSP accuracy and distribution characteristics.Finally,a semi-supervised model is proposed to relieve the LSP uncertainties.Results show that:(1)The LSP accuracies of error-based RF/MLP models decrease with the increase of landslide position errors,and are lower than those of original data-based models;(2)70 m error-based models can still reflect the overall distribution characteristics of landslide susceptibility indices,thus original landslides with certain position errors are acceptable for LSP;(3)Semi-supervised machine learning model can efficiently reduce the landslide position errors and thus improve the LSP accuracies.

How do the landslide and non-landslide sampling strategies impact landslide susceptibility assessment? d A catchment-scale case study from China

The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the sampling strategy of landslide and non-landslide on the performance of landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA).The study area is the Feiyun catchment in Wenzhou City,Southeast China.Two types of landslides samples,combined with seven non-landslide sampling strategies,resulted in a total of 14 scenarios.The corresponding landslide susceptibility map(LSM)for each scenario was generated using the random forest model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and statistical indicators were calculated and used to assess the impact of the dataset sampling strategy.The results showed that higher accuracies were achieved when using the landslide core as positive samples,combined with non-landslide sampling from the very low zone or buffer zone.The results reveal the influence of landslide and non-landslide sampling strategies on the accuracy of LSA,which provides a reference for subsequent researchers aiming to obtain a more reasonable LSM.

A Two-Layer Encoding Learning Swarm Optimizer Based on Frequent Itemsets for Sparse Large-Scale Multi-Objective Optimization

Traditional large-scale multi-objective optimization algorithms(LSMOEAs)encounter difficulties when dealing with sparse large-scale multi-objective optimization problems(SLM-OPs)where most decision variables are zero.As a result,many algorithms use a two-layer encoding approach to optimize binary variable Mask and real variable Dec separately.Nevertheless,existing optimizers often focus on locating non-zero variable posi-tions to optimize the binary variables Mask.However,approxi-mating the sparse distribution of real Pareto optimal solutions does not necessarily mean that the objective function is optimized.In data mining,it is common to mine frequent itemsets appear-ing together in a dataset to reveal the correlation between data.Inspired by this,we propose a novel two-layer encoding learning swarm optimizer based on frequent itemsets(TELSO)to address these SLMOPs.TELSO mined the frequent terms of multiple particles with better target values to find mask combinations that can obtain better objective values for fast convergence.Experi-mental results on five real-world problems and eight benchmark sets demonstrate that TELSO outperforms existing state-of-the-art sparse large-scale multi-objective evolutionary algorithms(SLMOEAs)in terms of performance and convergence speed.

Spatial distribution of shallow landslides caused by Typhoon Lekima in 2019 in Zhejiang Province, China

In recent years, the coastal region of Southeast China has witnessed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling typhoons. The hilly and mountainous terrain of this area, combined with rapid rainfall accumulation, has led to a surge in flash floods and severe geological hazards. On August 10, 2019, Typhoon Lekima made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, and its torrential rainfall triggered extensive landslides, resulting in substantial damage and economic losses. Utilizing high-resolution satellite images, we compiled a landslide inventory of the affected area, which comprises a total of 2,774 rainfallinduced landslides over an area of 2965 km2. The majority of these landslides were small to mediumsized and exhibited elongated, clustered patterns. Some landslides displayed characteristics of high-level initiation, obstructing or partially blocking rivers, leading to the formation of debris dams. We used the inventory to analyze the distribution pattern of the landslides and their relationship with topographical, geological, and hydrological factors. The results showed that landslide abundance was closely related to elevation, slope angle, faults, and road density. The landslides were predominantly located in hilly and low mountainous areas, with elevations ranging from 150 to 300 m, slopes of 20 to 30 degrees, and a NE-SE aspect. Notably, we observed the highest Landslide Number Density(LND) and Landslide Area Percentage(LAP) in the rhyolite region. Landslides were concentrated within approximately 4 km on either side of fault zones, with their size and frequency negatively correlated with distances to faults, roads, and river systems. Furthermore, under the influence of typhoons, regions with denser vegetation cover exhibited higher landslide density, reaching maximum values in shrubland areas. In areas experiencing significantly increased concentrated rainfall, landslide density also showed a corresponding rise. In terms of spatial distribution, the rainfall-triggered landslides primarily occurred in the northeastern part of the study area, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography such as Shanzao Village in Yantan Town, Xixia Township, and Shangzhang Township. The research findings offer crucial data on the rainfallinduced landslides triggered by Typhoon Lekima, shedding light on their spatial distribution patterns. These findings provide valuable references for mitigating risks and planning reconstruction in typhoon-affected area.

Spatiotemporal deformation characteristics of Outang landslide and identification of triggering factors using data mining

Since the impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)in 2003,numerous slopes have experienced noticeable movement or destabilization owing to reservoir level changes and seasonal rainfall.One case is the Outang landslide,a large-scale and active landslide,on the south bank of the Yangtze River.The latest monitoring data and site investigations available are analyzed to establish spatial and temporal landslide deformation characteristics.Data mining technology,including the two-step clustering and Apriori algorithm,is then used to identify the dominant triggers of landslide movement.In the data mining process,the two-step clustering method clusters the candidate triggers and displacement rate into several groups,and the Apriori algorithm generates correlation criteria for the cause-and-effect.The analysis considers multiple locations of the landslide and incorporates two types of time scales:longterm deformation on a monthly basis and short-term deformation on a daily basis.This analysis shows that the deformations of the Outang landslide are driven by both rainfall and reservoir water while its deformation varies spatiotemporally mainly due to the difference in local responses to hydrological factors.The data mining results reveal different dominant triggering factors depending on the monitoring frequency:the monthly and bi-monthly cumulative rainfall control the monthly deformation,and the 10-d cumulative rainfall and the 5-d cumulative drop of water level in the reservoir dominate the daily deformation of the landslide.It is concluded that the spatiotemporal deformation pattern and data mining rules associated with precipitation and reservoir water level have the potential to be broadly implemented for improving landslide prevention and control in the dam reservoirs and other landslideprone areas.

Thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical responses of a reservoir-induced landslide tracked by high-resolution fiber optic sensing nerves

Thermo-poro-mechanical responses along sliding zone/surface have been extensively studied.However,it has not been recognized that the potential contribution of other crucial engineering geological interfaces beyond the slip surface to progressive failure.Here,we aim to investigate the subsurface multiphysics of reservoir landslides under two extreme hydrologic conditions(i.e.wet and dry),particularly within sliding masses.Based on ultra-weak fiber Bragg grating(UWFBG)technology,we employ specialpurpose fiber optic sensing cables that can be implanted into boreholes as“nerves of the Earth”to collect data on soil temperature,water content,pore water pressure,and strain.The Xinpu landslide in the middle reach of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China was selected as a case study to establish a paradigm for in situ thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical monitoring.These UWFBG-based sensing cables were vertically buried in a 31 m-deep borehole at the foot of the landslide,with a resolution of 1 m except for the pressure sensor.We reported field measurements covering the period 2021 and 2022 and produced the spatiotemporal profiles throughout the borehole.Results show that wet years are more likely to motivate landslide motions than dry years.The annual thermally active layer of the landslide has a critical depth of roughly 9 m and might move downward in warmer years.The dynamic groundwater table is located at depths of 9e15 m,where the peaked strain undergoes a periodical response of leap and withdrawal to annual hydrometeorological cycles.These interface behaviors may support the interpretation of the contribution of reservoir regulation to slope stability,allowing us to correlate them to local damage events and potential global destabilization.This paper also offers a natural framework for interpreting thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical signatures from creeping reservoir bank slopes,which may form the basis for a landslide monitoring and early warning system.

A local rainfall-triggered giant landslide occurred in a region along a high-speed railway on the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau

An increasing number of geological hazards along high-speed railways on the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau have occurred and have resulted in a profound influence on old infrastructure,which has attracted increasing attention.The landslide event that occurred on September 15,2022,in Jiujiawan village,Xining city,Qinghai Province,is a typical case.Based on field investigations and remote sensing interpretations,a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the landslide.Additionally,the potential secondary failure of the current Jiujiawan landslide was assessed using Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua in Three Dimensions(FLAC3D).Based on the application of the small baseline subset-interferometric synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-InSAR)technique to SAR images from February 24,2017 to September 14,2022,a significant westward horizontal deformation was found to have been formed prior to the occurrence of the landslide.The maximum annual average deformation rate in the line of sight(LOS)direction reached-45 mm/yr,with a maximum cumulative deformation of-178 mm.This value was consistent with the continual increase in annual precipitation(2.51 mm/yr)prior to the occurrence of the landslide.The accumulated precipitation before the landslide was 279.8 mm,accounting for 54.2%of the total annual precipitation,with a particularly notable surge in monthly precipitation observed during August(250.3 mm).Additionally,the occurrence of a seismic event with a magnitude of Ms 6.9 in Menyuan County,80 km away from Xining,could be a potential triggering factor to the landslide,as evidenced by an abrupt subsidence alteration observed prior to and following the earthquake.The maximum subsidence in the line of sight(LOS)direction exceeded 11 mm,exhibiting a highly consistent spatial distribution with the occurrence range of landslides.These results suggest that the Jiujiawan landslide was likely induced by earthquake events in the early stage and heavy rainfall in the later stage.The FLAC3D numerical simulation show that after the landslide,the slope remained marginally stable under natural conditions;however,it is susceptible to reactivation with heavy rainfall.

Fiber optic monitoring of an anti-slide pile in a retrogressive landslide

Anti-slide piles are one of the most important reinforcement structures against landslides,and evalu-ating the working conditions is of great significance for landslide mitigation.The widely adopted analytical methods of pile internal forces include cantilever beam method and elastic foundation beam method.However,due to many assumptions involved in calculation,the analytical models cannot be fully applicable to complex site situations,e.g.landslides with multi-sliding surfaces and pile-soil interface separation as discussed herein.In view of this,the combination of distributed fiber optic sensing(DFOS)and strain-internal force conversion methods was proposed to evaluate the working conditions of an anti-sliding pile in a typical retrogressive landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area,China.Brillouin optical time domain reflectometry(BOTDR)was utilized to monitor the strain distri-bution along the pile.Next,by analyzing the relative deformation between the pile and its adjacent inclinometer,the pile-soil interface separation was profiled.Finally,the internal forces of the anti-slide pile were derived based on the strain-internal force conversion method.According to the ratio of calculated internal forces to the design values,the working conditions of the anti-slide pile could be evaluated.The results demonstrated that the proposed method could reveal the deformation pattern of the anti-slide pile system,and can quantitatively evaluate its working conditions.

Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation based on SBAS-InSAR technology and SSA-BP neural network algorithm:A case study of Baihetan Reservoir Area

Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation takes on critical significance in early warning and disaster prevention and reduction.In order to solve the problems of poor effectiveness of landslide data and complex calculation of weights for multiple evaluation factors in the existing landslide susceptibility evaluation models,in this study,a method of landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation is proposed by combining SBAS-InSAR(Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)and SSA-BP(Sparrow Search Algorithm-Back Propagation)neural network algorithm.The SBAS-InSAR technology is adopted to identify potential landslide hazards in the study area,update the cataloging data of landslide hazards,and 11 evaluation factors are chosen for constructing the SSA-BP model for training and validation.Baihetan Reservoir area is selected as a case study for validation.As indicated by the results,the application of SBAS-InSAR technology,combined with both ascending and descending orbit data,effectively addresses the incomplete identification of landslide hazards caused by geometric distortion of single orbit SAR data(e.g.,shadow,overlay,and perspective contraction)in deep canyon areas,thereby enabling the acquisition of up-to-date landslide hazard data.Moreover,in comparison to the conventional BP(Back Propagation)algorithm,the accuracy of the model constructed by the SSA-BP algorithm exhibits a significant increase,with mean squared error and mean absolute error reduced by 0.0142 and 0.0607,respectively.Additionally,during the process of susceptibility evaluation,the SSA-BP model effectively circumvents the issue of considerable manual interventions in calculating the weight of evaluation factors.The area under the curve of this model reaches 0.909,surpassing BP(0.835),random forest(0.792),and the information value method(0.699).The risk of landslide occurrence in the Baihetan Reservoir area is positively correlated with slope,surface temperature,and deformation rate,while it is negatively correlated with fault distance and normalized difference vegetation index.Geological lithology exerts minimal influence on the occurrence of landslides,with the risk being low in forest land and high in grassland.The method proposed in this study provides a useful reference for disaster prevention and mitigation departments to perform landslide hazard susceptibility evaluations in deep canyon areas under complex geological conditions.

Displacement field reconstruction in landslide physical modeling by using a terrain laser scanner e Part 2:Application and large strain/displacement and water effect analysis

Deformation analysis is fundamental in geotechnical modeling.Nevertheless,there is still a lack of an effective method to obtain the deformation field under various experimental conditions.In this study,we introduce a processebased physical modeling of a pileereinforced reservoir landslide and present an improved deformation analysis involving large strains and water effects.We collect multieperiod point clouds using a terrain laser scanner and reconstruct its deformation field through a point cloud processing workflow.The results show that this method can accurately describe the landslide surface deformation at any time and area by both scalar and vector fields.The deformation fields in different profiles of the physical model and different stages of the evolutionary process provide adequate and detailed landslide information.We analyze the large strain upstream of the pile caused by the pile installation and the consequent violent deformation during the evolutionary process.Furthermore,our method effectively overcomes the challenges of identifying targets commonly encountered in geotechnical modeling where water effects are considered and targets are polluted,which facilitates the deformation analysis at the wading area in a reservoir landslide.Eventually,combining subsurface deformation as well as numerical modeling,we comprehensively analyze the kinematics and failure mechanisms of this complicated object involving landslides and pile foundations as well as water effects.This method is of great significance for any geotechnical modeling concerning large-strain analysis and water effects.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Centrifuge modeling of unreinforced and multi-row stabilizing piles reinforced landslides subjected to reservoir water level fluctuation

With the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir dam,frequent reservoir landslide events have been recorded.In recent years,multi-row stabilizing piles(MRSPs)have been used to stabilize massive reservoir landslides in China.In this study,two centrifuge model tests were carried out to study the unreinforced and MRSP-reinforced slopes subjected to reservoir water level(RWL)operation,using the Taping landslide as a prototype.The results indicate that the RWL rising can provide lateral support within the submerged zone and then produce the inward seepage force,eventually strengthening the slope stability.However,a rapid RWL drawdown may induce outward seepage forces and a sudden debuttressing effect,consequently reducing the effective soil normal stress and triggering partial pre-failure within the RWL fluctuation zone.Furthermore,partial deformation and subsequent soil structure damage generate excess pore water pressures,ultimately leading to the overall failure of the reservoir landslide.This study also reveals that a rapid increase in the downslope driving force due to RWL drawdown significantly intensifies the lateral earth pressures exerted on the MRSPs.Conversely,the MRSPs possess a considerable reinforcement effect on the reservoir landslide,transforming the overall failure into a partial deformation and failure situated above and in front of the MRSPs.The mechanical transfer behavior observed in the MRSPs demonstrates a progressive alteration in relation to RWL fluctuations.As the RWL rises,the mechanical states among MRSPs exhibit a growing imbalance.The shear force transfer factor(i.e.the ratio of shear forces on pile of the n th row to that of the first row)increases significantly with the RWL drawdown.This indicates that the mechanical states among MRSPs tend toward an enhanced equilibrium.The insights gained from this study contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the failure mechanisms of reservoir landslides and the mechanical behavior of MRSPs in reservoir banks.