Dynamical Predictability of Leading Interannual Variability Modes of the Asian-Australian Monsoon in Climate Models

The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers worldwide.Results show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second mode.The first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central Pacific.The second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and spring.Our findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM modes.Still,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial features.The multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal features.The BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM modes.The predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.

Transition from the Southern Mode of the Mei-yu Front Cloud System to Other Leading Modes

Based on normalized six-hourly black body temperature （TBB） data of three geostationary meteorological satellites,the leading modes of the mei-yu cloud system between 1998 and 2008 were extracted by the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method,and the transition processes from the first typical leading mode to other leading modes were discussed and compared.The analysis shows that,when the southern mode （EOF1） transforms to the northeastern mode （EOF3）,in the mid-troposphere,a low trough develops and moves southeastward over central and eastern China.The circulation pattern is characterized by two highs and one low in the lower troposphere.A belt of low pressure is sandwiched between the weak high over central and western China and the strong western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH）.Cold air moves southward along the northerly flow behind the low,and meets the warm and moist air between the WNPSH and the forepart of the low trough,which leads to continuous convection.At the same time,the central extent of the WNPSH increases while its ridge extends westward.In addition,transitions from the southern mode to the dual centers mode and the tropical-low-influenced mode were found to be atypical,and so no common points could be concluded.Furthermore,the choice of threshold value can affect the number of samples discussed.

The Second Decadal Leading Mode of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

The first decadal leading mode of East Asian summer rainfall(EASR) is characterized by rainfall anomalies along the East Asian subtropical rain belt. This study focuses on the second decadal leading mode(2DLM), accounting for 17.3% of rainfall decadal variance, as distinct from the other two neighboring modes of EAMR, based on the state-of-the-art in-situ rainfall data.This mode is characterized by a South-China-wet–HuaiheRiver-dry pattern, and is dominated by a quasi-30-yr period. Further analysis reveals the 2DLM corresponds to an enhanced lower-level monsoon jet, an eastward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and a weakened East Asian upper-level westerly jet flow. The Tibetan Plateau surface temperature and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are closely linked with the 2DLM. The regressed SST pattern indicates the PDO-like pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies may have a teleconnection relationship with the 2DLM of EASR.

Technology Innovation Mode of Agricultural Leading Enterprise——Based on the Virtual Organization Mode

Based on the definition of technology innovation of agricultural leading enterprises by domestic and foreign experts and scholars,technology innovation of agricultural enterprises is a process of new market increment,which uses new knowledge,technology,process and production mode,produces new products,offers new services and realizes commercialization. Characteristics of agricultural technology innovation are introduced,such as obvious regionality,relatively high risk,long-term periodicity and public attribute. Predicament for technology innovation of leading enterprises is analyzed,such as technical constraints,financial constraints and personnel constraints. Technological Innovation Mode can be classified into three modes of independent innovation,imitative innovation and cooperative innovation by the method of technology innovation. Among them,since there are some defects in the technology innovation process,independent innovation and imitative innovation are generally not used for the innovation of agricultural enterprises. Cooperative Innovation Mode can rely on foreign aid,can realize complementary advantages and achievement sharing,and can be widely applied in the agricultural innovation enterprise. Virtual organization in cooperation innovation mode is described,which makes up for technology,capital and human resources barriers in the process of agricultural enterprise innovation. Therefore,this mode is popular among the agricultural innovation enterprise.

Failure Modes of Lead Free Solder Bumps Formed by Induction Spontaneous Heating Reflow

The shear failure modes and respective failure mechanism of Sn3.5Ag and Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu lead-free solder bumping on Au/Ni/Cu metallization formed by induction spontaneous heating reflow process have been investigated through the shear test after aging at 120℃ for 0, 1, 4, 9 and 16 d. Different typical shear failure behaviors have been found in the loading curves （shear force vs displacement）. From the results of interracial morphology analysis of the fracture surfaces and cross-sections, two main typical failure modes have been identified. The probabilities of the failure modes occurrence are inconsistent when the joints were aged for different times. The evolution of the brittle NiaSn4 and Cu-Ni-Au-Sn layers and the grains coarsening of the solder bulk are the basic reasons for the change of shear failure modes.

以学生为中心的物理化学课程教学模式的改革与实践

针对物理化学课程,提出了“四元三导一对分”线上线下混合式教学模式。教学效果表明,卷面成绩不及格率从传统讲授法的50%~70%区间逐渐降低至“四元三导一对分”教学法的15%~21%区间,平均分也由55分提升到70分,学生满意度较高,教学效果显著。

“红墙先锋、红色温度”城市街道社区党建工作的思考与实践——深圳市横岗模式调研与借鉴

“红色管家联盟”是深圳市横岗街道在党建引领社会建设、社会基层治理中一次有意义的探索与实践。实践的目标在于建立、建设共建、共治、共享的社区,在现代城市发展和治理过程中积极探索,让改革开放成果更好地惠及百姓。北京市百万庄东社区党建引领社会基层治理模式创新,社区治理、服务的实践总结为:“红墙先锋红色温度”,即一个核心、两项工程、三条主线、四个抓手。党建引领共治,强化基层党组织的引领作用,注重基层组织的建设,积极探索多元治理机制,构建共建共治共享的基层治理新格局。

弹性工作制联合带组护士管理模式在眼科日间手术中的应用效果

目的探讨弹性工作制联合带组护士管理模式在眼科日间手术中的应用效果。方法于2022年9月-2023年3月在某三甲医院眼科日间手术室实施弹性工作制联合带组护士管理模式,比较模式实施前后患者出院指导质量、手术取消率、不良事件发生率及护士职业认同感。结果实施弹性工作制联合带组护士管理模式后,患者出院指导质量总分和护士职业认同感总分均较实施前提升(P<0.05),患者手术取消率和不良事件发生率均较实施前有所下降(P<0.05)。结论弹性工作制联合带组护士管理模式能够提升患者出院指导质量,助力日间手术管理,提升护士职业认同感。

基于全部参数自适应Smith预估补偿的永磁同步电机滑模前馈控制及扰动抑制

在永磁同步电机控制系统中,逆变器的延迟效应会降低系统的跟踪性能和稳定裕度。引入Smith预估补偿器可以补偿延迟环节对系统性能的影响,但Smith预估补偿器要求延迟时间和被控对象模型参数已知,这不符合实际情况。为此提出时变模型自适应预估方法,分别对延迟时间和被控对象模型参数进行自适应估计,实现Smith预估补偿器的全参数自适应。设计基于位置输出超前值预测和扰动抑制的滑模前馈控制器,与全参数自适应Smith预估补偿控制相结合,确保控制系统的全局稳定,降低系统对参数不确定的敏感性,并提高系统的抗扰性。仿真结果表明,与传统及多种改进的Smith预估补偿方法相比,该方法有着更高的跟踪精度,即使在非理想条件下,对参数不确定依然具有较强的鲁棒性,对随机扰动依然具有较强的干扰抑制能力。

The Dipole Mode of the Summer Rainfall over East China during 1958–2001

By examining the second leading mode （EOF2） of the summer rainfall in China during 1958 2001 and associated circulations, the authors found that this prominent mode was a dipole pattern with rainfall decreasing to the north of the Yangtze River and increasing to the south. This reverse relationship of the rainfalls to the north and to the south of the Yangtze River was related with the meridional circulations within East Asia and the neighboring region, excited by SST in the South China Sea-northwestern Pacific. When the SST was warmer, the geopotential heights at 500 hPa were positive in the low and high latitudes and negative in the middle latitudes. The anticyclone in the low latitudes favored the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific （SHNP） shifting southwestward, leading to additional moisture transport over southern China. The anomalous atmospheric circulations along the East Asian coast tends to enhance upward movement over the region. Subsequently, rainfall in southern China is enhanced.

基于硫化铅量子点可饱和吸收体的锁模光纤激光器

通过优化后的热注入法制备得到硫化铅胶体量子点,再利用匀胶机两步旋涂的方法使材料平铺在小块羧甲基纤维素薄膜上,并将其作为可饱和吸收体应用于光纤激光器中,实现稳定的锁模。制备的硫化铅量子点可饱和吸收薄膜的调制深度和饱和强度分别约为26.46%和6.75 MW/cm^(2),非饱和损耗为6.42%。测试结果表明该薄膜具有更小的非饱和损耗以及更好的重复性和一致性。采用该薄膜作为可饱和吸收体的光纤激光器能在47 mW的泵浦功率处开始实现自启动锁模,且能够实现长时间稳定的锁模激光输出。研究结果为硫化铅量子点可饱和吸收体在光纤激光器中的后续应用奠定了基础。

倾斜薄状铅锌矿体开采方法研究

对倾斜薄状矿体进行开采时,常常会面临采矿方法选择难的问题。某矿区内的铅锌矿体主要赋存于断裂带中,矿区内待开采的矿体属于倾斜薄状矿体。为了开采矿区内的铅锌矿资源,采用平硐+盲斜井的开拓方式,并根据矿区内矿体特征和开采技术条件,确定采用留矿全面采矿法对该铅锌矿进行开采。对留矿全面采矿法的采场矿块结构、采准、切割工程、回采落矿工艺进行了设计。结合相关经济指标,认为该采矿方法能够满足矿山实际生产需求,采用的留矿全面采矿法适合开采矿岩较稳固的倾斜薄状矿体,可为相关铅锌矿体的开采提供参考。

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC)is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation.This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying mechanisms.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method,the leading mode(EOF1,R2=28.9%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China;the second mode(EOF2,R2=24.3%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China.EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT)branches over northeastern China and eastern China,which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS)area in the preceding October-November(ON).EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China,which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere.This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC,and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

PBL教学法在神经病学住院医师规范化培训中的应用价值

目的探讨以问题为导向的教学法(problem-based learning,PBL)在神经病学住院医师规范化培训教学中的应用效果。方法选取2020年6月—2021年6月滨州医学院附属医院神经内科参加60名住院医师规范化培训住培医师进行研究,使用随机数字表法分为传统组(30名)和干预组(30名),比较两组住培医师神经病学知识掌握程度,比较两组住培医师综合能力,包括团队协作能力、文献检索能力、病例分析能力等。结果干预组住培医师神经病学知识掌握度优良率显著高于传统组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预组住培医师团队协作能力、文献检索能力、病例分析能力评分均高于传统组住培医师,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论PBL教学法在神经病学住院医师规范化培训中应用,可有效提升住培医师知识掌握程度,提升住培医师综合能力。

以新发展理念探索党建引领下的公立医院高质量发展之路

在“健康中国战略”时代背景下,公立医院应不断拓宽党建与业务深度融合的工作思路,把政治优势转化为推动医院高质量发展的强大动力。本研究应用“党建+”创新工作模式,探索将公立医院党建和业务相结合,进一步深化体制创新、技术创新、模式创新、工作创新,构建优质、高效的整合型医疗卫生服务体系,努力推动公立医院高质量发展。

秋季黄河中下游降水主模态及2021年极端降水的气候背景

为探讨2021年秋季黄河中下游极端降水的气候背景,基于中国160站降水资料、NCEP/NCAR大气环流和NOAA海表温度(SST)再分析资料,分析了黄河中下游秋季降水主模态的时空特征及2021年极端降水的可能成因。经验正交函数分解表明,秋季黄河中下游降水主模态在空间分布上西至甘肃省东南部,东至山东省西部,主体位于黄河中下游地区,2021年是黄河中下游降水主模态的典型表现。采用黄河中下游秋季降水指数(ARYR)表征主模态时间变化,其年际、年代际变化分别与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)存在相关,拉尼娜年和PDO负位相时降水偏多。秋季黄河中下游降水偏多主模态与北太平洋SST异常偏高的区域和强度相关密切,选取关键区定义中纬度北太平洋SST(MNPSST)指数,当MNPSST偏高时,海洋性大陆(MC)区域存在强的上升运动,黄河中下游地区出现显著的低(高)空辐合(散),指数偏低则降水偏少。其中2021年MNPSST指数为1951年以来最高,2021年MC对流区北侧的中国南海北部有较强上升运动,中纬度北太平洋偏东气流异常偏强,水汽通量异常分为偏南和偏东两支到达黄河流域中游和下游。中纬度北太平洋SST正异常是2021年秋季黄河中下游极端降水的重要影响因子之一。

水电站蓄电池组多模块协同阻断技术研究

蓄电池作为水电站中常用的储能设备,能够为电力系统提供稳定的备用电源,并满足水电站在电网停电或负荷波动时的供电需求。铅酸蓄电池以其容量大、寿命长、成本相对较低、充放电效率高和维护成本低等优点而在水电站得到广泛应用。然而,由于频繁的充放电,铅酸蓄电池易发生老化,所以当蓄电池出现开路故障时,会对整个水电站的电源安全构成严重威胁。因此文章基于目前较成熟的开路续流装置设计了一种新型铅酸蓄电池组装置,用于解决水电站铅酸蓄电池组开路故障问题。

畜牧业产业链转型升级“五有”领军型人才培养模式思考

建设现代畜牧业是中国特色农业现代化发展的重要任务。面对畜牧业转型升级而人才培养跟不上时代发展的危机,综合性大学应调整人才培养模式来适应社会需求的改变。高校是人才培养、思想汇聚和科学研究的高地,肩负着科技创新、人才培养、促进经济社会发展的责任和义务。本文从畜牧行业的转型升级入手,在新农科人才的核心理念下,以“技术、项目、人才”为纽带,打造“入口协同、过程融合、出口互动”的全程培养模式,构建形如“螺栓—螺母”紧密相扣的“五有”领军型人才培养体系,通过“共创、共建、共享”的方式,校企双方以需求为导向,明确培养目标,围绕培养目标优化课程体系,开阔教育视野,完善育人方案,共建协作平台来提高企业参与育人积极性,升级知识结构以达到产业集群对人才标准的要求,加强过程监督提高培养复合型人才的能力,把关毕业论文严守人才出口,评价人才质量并反馈培养责任主体,不断完善培养模式,提高了校企双方培养人才的积极性,实现了人才培养的过程参与资源共享,进而推动畜牧业现代化的发展进程。

体育强国思想背景下的高校体育教学路径探讨

体育强国发展战略思想的实现,需要有兼具体育专项技能、体育信息素养等综合素质人才的支持。高等院校肩负着培养高素质人才的重要使命,高校体育教学不仅是提升大学生体质健康的重要教学实践形式,也是当今我国大力发展体育强国战略的重要组成部分。该文采用文献资料法等研究方法,对体育强国思想背景下的高校体育教学路径展开了研究,在分析当前高校体育教学发展现状的基础上,提出体育强国思想背景下的高校体育教学具体优化路径,以有效促进高校体育教学的创新与发展,全面提升大学生的健康水平,加快我国建设体育强国的进程。

学校主导—专家协助:新时代学校文化建设合作模式的转向

学校文化建设是新时代中小学高质量发展的重要抓手。当前,由于U-S合作机制不完善,导致学校文化建设缺乏长久支撑,内生动力不足,品质整体偏低。为提升学校文化建设品质,亟须转向“学校主导—专家协助”的U-S合作模式。“学校主导—专家协助”模式是从中小学的实际情况出发,由中小学全体成员主导、专家团队协助建立的内生性跨组织合作模式。该模式通过意向性接洽、深入了解、制定方案以及实施评价四个阶段推动合作的运转。为促进新型U-S合作模式的实施,需要树立共同的价值理念,建立顺畅的沟通机制,构建多维的保障体系,进而实现双方的共生性发展。