Examining the association between delay discounting,delay aversion and physical activity in Chinese adults with type-2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND The role of physical activity in diabetes is critical,influencing this disease's development,man-agement,and overall outcomes.In China,22.3%of adults do not meet the minimum level of physical activity recommended by the World Health Organization.Therefore,it is imperative to identify the factors that contributing to lack of physical activity must be identified.AIM To investigate the relationship among delay discounting,delay aversion,glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c),and various levels of physical activity in Chinese adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).METHODS In 2023,400 adults with T2DM were recruited from the People's Hospital of Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province.A face-to-face questionnaire was used to gather demographic data and details on physical activity,delay discounting,and delay aversion.In addition,HbA1c levels were measured in all 400 participants.The primary independent variables considered were delay discounting and delay aversion.The outcome variables included HbA1c levels and different intensity levels of physical activity,including walking,moderate physical activity,and vigorous physical activity.Multiple linear regression models were utilized to assess the relationship between delay discounting,delay aversion,and HbA1c levels,along with the intensity of different physical activity measured in met-hours per week.RESULTS After controlling for the sample characteristics,delay discounting was negatively associated with moderate physical activity(β=-2.386,95%CI:-4.370 to-0.401).Meanwhile,delay aversion was negatively associated with the level of moderate physical activity(β=-3.527,95%CI:-5.578 to-1.476)in the multiple linear regression model,with statistically significant differences.CONCLUSION Elevated delay discounting and increased delay aversion correlated with reduced levels of moderate physical activity.Result suggests that delay discounting and aversion may influence engagement in moderate physical activity.This study recommends that health administration and government consider delay discounting and delay aversion when formulating behavioral intervention strategies and treatment guidelines involving physical activity for patients with T2DM,which may increase participation in physical activity.This study contributes a novel perspective to the research on physical activity in adults with T2DM by examining the significance of future health considerations and the role of emotional responses to delays.

Comparative research on three-echelon and two-echelon medicine inventory model with positive lead-time

According to the principle of minimizing total cost, the three-echelon optimized medical inventory model with stochastic lead-time and two-echelon optimized medicine inventory model with fixed lead-time are established. The relationship between lead-time and inventory cost is studied by Matlab software. It shows that the variety of lead-time has an important effect on medicine inventory systems. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis of two models are presented by Lingo software. Based on analysis, it is concluded that the two-echelon model with lead-time results in inventory cost savings, and keeps the quality of care as reflected in service levels when compared with the three-echelon network structure.

Lead-time bias in esophageal cancer screening in high-risk areas in China

Objective:To investigate what extent lead-time bias is likely to affect endoscopic screening effectiveness for esophageal cancer in the high-risk area in China.Methods:A screening model based on the epidemiological cancer registry data,yielding a population-level incidence and mortality rates,was carried out to simulate study participants in the high-risk area in China,and investigate the effect of lead-time bias on endoscopic screening with control for length bias.Results:Of 100,000 participants,6,150(6.15%)were diagnosed with esophageal squamous dysplasia during the 20-year follow-up period.The estimated lead time ranged from 1.67 to 5.78 years,with a median time of 4.62 years[interquartile range(IQR):4.07-5.11 years]in the high-risk area in China.Lead-time bias exaggerated screening effectiveness severely,causing more than a 10%overestimation in 5-year cause-specific survival rate and around a 43%reduction in cause-specific hazard ratio.The magnitude of lead-time bias on endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer varied depending on the screening strategies,in which an inverted U-shaped and U-shaped effects were observed in the 5-year cause-specific survival rate and cause-specific hazard ratio respectively concerning a range of ages for primary screening.Conclusions:Lead-time bias,usually causing an overestimation of screening effectiveness,is an elementary and fundamental issue in cancer screening.Quantification and correction of lead-time bias are essential when evaluating the effectiveness of endoscopic screening in the high-risk area in China.

Long Lead-Time Streamflow Forecasting Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillation Indices

Climatic variability influences the hydrological cycle that subsequently affects the discharge in the stream. The variability in the climate can be represented by the ocean-atmospheric oscillations which provide the forecast opportunity for the streamflow. Prediction of future water availability accurately and reliably is a key step for successful water resource management in the arid regions. Four popular ocean-atmospheric indices were used in this study for annual streamflow volume prediction. They were Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM), a data driven model based on Bayesian learning approach was used as a prediction model. The model was applied to four unimpaired stream gages in Utah that spatially covers the state from north to south. Different models were developed based on the combinations of oscillation indices in the input. A total of 60 years (1950-2009) of data were used for the analysis. The model was trained on 50 years of data (1950-1999) and tested on 10 years of data (2000-2009). The best combination of oscillation indices and the lead-time were identified for each gage which was used to develop the prediction model. The predicted flow had reasonable agreement with the actual annual flow volume. The sensitivity analysis shows that the PDO and ENSO have relatively stronger effect compared to other oscillation indices in Utah. The prediction results from the MVRVM were compared with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) where MVRVM performed relatively better.

碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论:I.时间统筹

在气候变化应对过程中,面临一种纵向的代际统筹,即当前人类应当或者愿意付出多大代价来避免未来可能发生的气候变化损失。对这一问题的回答关乎当代人与后代人的利益,需要权衡当前减缓气候变化的成本和未来气候变化带来的损失。然而,当前国际上对贴现率和跨期均衡路径的探讨暂未得出明确方案,亟需形成统筹长期与短期的碳减排理论,以指导相关减排路径设计。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,聚焦于碳减排的时间统筹,构建了跨期均衡路径,并设置了积极但不激进的贴现率,从而统筹当前减缓气候变化的成本和未来气候变化带来的损失,回答碳减排的跨期责任分担与成本分配等问题,应用于CEEP-BIT自主开发的中国气候变化综合评估模型(C3IAM)等气候环境治理与碳减排路径的研究中,为统筹长期减排与短期减排提供方法基础。

考虑商家定价和广告投资的电商平台价格折扣决策

本文考虑了商家定价和广告投资决策行为,构建了电商平台价格折扣决策模型,研究了价格促销活动中平台最优价格折扣决策和商家定价和广告投资决策。研究表明,商品消费者效用越高平台最优价格折扣系数越大,商品单位成本越高平台最优价格折扣系数越大。平台促销收益随消费者数量、商品的消费者效用增加而增加;随平台交易费率和广告费用系数增加呈先增加后保持不变的趋势。价格折扣系数较低时,商家保持正常销售时期的价格不变,广告投资水平随价格折扣系数降低而降低;价格折扣系数较高时,商家最优定价随价格折扣系数降低而提高,广告投资水平不变。

改性干粉型聚合物水泥砂浆试验研究

本文研究两种不同的可再分散乳胶粉(醋酸乙烯-乙烯共聚物和醋酸乙烯/叔碳酸乙烯酯共聚物)对干粉型聚合物水泥砂浆力学性能、粘结强度、吸水率、干燥收缩的性能影响。结果表明,可再分散乳胶粉的掺量、类型对聚合物水泥砂浆的性能影响较大,力学性能较普通水泥砂浆有明显的提升和改善。可再分散乳胶粉的加入虽然降低了砂浆的抗压强度,但显著提高了抗折强度和折压比,改善了砂浆的柔韧性和抗裂能力;砂浆的干燥收缩、粘结强度和吸水率等性能均有较为明显的改善。

考虑分散协作及数量折扣的双目标电动车辆路径优化

当前传统燃油车辆造成了极大的空气污染和资源浪费,电动车辆和协作物流是降低碳排放、提高运输效率的有效途径。本文基于协作物流的思想,建立以运输利润最大及配送任务完成量最大为双目标,考虑分散协作及数量折扣的带时间窗电动车辆路径优化模型。设计将贪婪随机自适应搜索—进化邻域搜索(GRASP-ELS)混合算法与ε-约束法相结合的ε-约束混合进化算法,并通过算例对模型和算法进行测试。实验结果表明:所提出的算法优于多目标优化算法NSGA-Ⅱ;通过灵敏度分析给出管理启示。本文为分散协作情境下电动车辆配送优化提供方法借鉴与决策参考。

中国电视剧出海困境与策略探究

电视剧是承载文化使命、展现时代风貌、传递价值观念的重要文化产品,也是讲好中国故事、传递好中国声音的重要文化载体。新时代背景下,中国电视剧在对外传播过程中面临新的机遇和挑战:一方面,中国电视剧的高质量发展和国家政策支持,为国剧出海“造船扬帆”,促进中外深度文化交流与互鉴;另一方面,由于文化语境差异和西方话语干扰,海外观众对中国电视剧常带有误解和偏见,形成跨文化传播壁垒,如何减少因误解、偏见而产生的发展阻力成为国剧出海议程中亟待解决的问题。笔者通过深入分析当前国产电视剧在出海过程中的文化折扣现象,并以非洲地区为例,从三个方面提出建设性意见:进行本土化译制和集束化传播,减少文化歧义,形成强大传播效能;发展合拍剧制作模式,将中国故事进行在地化表达,为中国电视剧出海构造丰富的非洲叙事;坚定中华文化立场,创新电视剧叙事手段,构建独具特色的叙事体系。以独特的影像符号系统促进跨文化叙事的展开,不断优化新时代国剧出海整体格局,为提升国产电视剧的传播力和影响力保驾护航。

电商短期信贷息费优惠、降价与促消费:“分期免息”能带来好处吗?

中国电商平台与消费信贷服务深度融合,使入驻厂商能够灵活地发起息费优惠,并将其作为一种促销手段与降价行为相联动。以京东商城2022年包括“白条”息费优惠、价格、销量、用户评论等多维度信息的电视机产品月度数据构建动态面板回归模型进行实证分析,结果表明电商短期消费信贷的息费优惠确实可以促进消费者购买,但商家在提供息费优惠时,相应产品的价格会被相对抬高。不过,结合现实市场利率与估计结果匡算息费优惠措施的综合效果,发现即使考虑价格相对上涨,消费者仍然能够以较低的代价获得分期付款服务,而商家代替消费者支付相应息费所得到的促销效果与直接给予等额降价基本相当。上述结论反映出电商短期消费信贷的优惠在促进居民消费中的积极作用。

文化折扣视角下河南中原文化对外传播创新

新时代背景下,文化对外传播已成为中华文化传承发展必须面对的重要课题。文章以文化折扣概念为基础,以河南中原文化为核心,借助文献研究法和案例分析法,分析文化折扣视角下河南中原文化对外传播困局,提出拓展对外传播平台,深化文化内容融合,丰富文化传播形式,跟进文化传播技术,强化传播队伍建设等策略,以期削弱文化折扣带来的传播对抗,助力河南中原文化更好地走向世界、融入国际,不断朝着建设文化强国的目标迈进。

太原市垃圾处理PPP项目物有所值定量评价优化研究

以太原市垃圾处理PPP项目为研究对象,对物有所值定量评价方法进行优化。折现率方面,选择资本资产定价模型,计算体现行业特色的基础折现率,考虑通货膨胀因素,采用时间序列分析加以修正;风险分担方面,采用ANP——模糊综合评价法计算共担风险因素的政府和项目公司分担比例;风险量化方面,运用梯形模糊层次法确定风险损失权重,运用集值统计法确定风险发生概率。

不动产信托投资基金投资风险识别与价值影响量化研究——以招商局商业房托基金为例

REITs底层资产类型的扩容及已上市REITs的扩募,均需要不断对各类型、各时期的REITs底层资产价值进行审视,REITs价值评估变得至关重要,其中对投资风险的分析及其对投资价值的影响成为一个关键问题。文章分析REITs投资的风险来源,识别其主要宏观及微观风险,发现在美国、新加坡和中国香港REITs市场上宏观经济及资本市场对REITs投资收益的波动影响较小,主要风险来自微观层面。进而基于这些风险来源讨论REITs投资价值确定中主要风险度量参数—折现率的确定问题,提出三种公募REITs折现率的测算方法:基于同类上市房企β值的累加法、物业资本化率平均调整法、同类REITs收益率类比法。并以招商局商业房托基金(1503.HK)为例,采用三种方法量化其IPO定价中的折现率,为REITs投融资中合理估值的确定提供理论依据与实践建议。

自由现金流量折现法下海尔智家企业价值评估

选取家电企业中更为注重智能化技术投入的海尔智家为案例,采用自由现金流量折现法对发展智能技术后海尔智家企业的价值进行评估,旨在对海尔智家进行客观评价。通过分析研究得出了海尔智家在未来5年内持续稳步增长的结论,未来的发展较为可观。

数据资本资产定价模型:基于两部收费的方法

本文针对当前数据资本资产定价理论中成本法、收益法存在短板的问题,以及市场法不成熟的问题,基于梯若尔双边市场理论拓展了资本资产定价理论,首次引入双边市场作为市场法定价的基础,从数字生态系统现有两部收费的实践出发,构建成本法与收益法相结合、单边市场与双边市场相结合、时间贴现与空间贴现相结合的数据资本资产定价模型(DCAPM),用于标准化数据资本资产定价。这一模型创新性地将现有资本资产定价理论从时间特例发展为时空通则。本文基于均衡分析建模,建立了按照实际销售收入、符合现有会计准则的数据资本资产定价方法。研究的一般意义在于,发现反科斯型市场的作用,尤其是明晰了将外部性加以内部化这一双边市场机制在数据资本资产定价中的作用。

基于不同失稳判据的黄土边坡稳定性数值计算分析

安全系数是边坡稳定性评价的一项重要指标,依据不同失稳判据计算得到的安全系数存在差异,会直接影响边坡稳定性状态的评价。以万花山治沟造地工程台阶型开挖边坡为对象,运用FLAC3D有限差分软件,采用强度折减法,选择计算不收敛判据、塑性区贯通判据、位移突变判据3种失稳判据,对黄土边坡安全系数进行数值计算。对比分析3种判据所得的分析结果及优缺点表明:3种失稳判据得出的安全系数大小排序为位移突变判据>计算不收敛判据>塑性区贯通判据。计算不收敛判据使用简便,求解快速,但不能展示折减过程坡体塑性区的变化情况;塑性区贯通判据不宜单独作为边坡失稳判据,需要结合不平衡力综合评估,但可以展示坡体剪切和拉伸塑性区;位移突变判据求解过程复杂,但能真实地反映坡体位移变化导致的临界破坏状态。建议类似工程优先选用求解过程快速的计算不收敛判据,然后结合塑性区贯通情况与坡体位移变化状态对边坡稳定性进行综合评价。

基于DSmT证据折扣理论的短波多通道信息融合方法

针对由于短波信道复杂恶劣、通道信息间冲突突出,经典合并方式对短波多通道信息合并效果不佳问题,提出基于DSmT证据折扣理论的短波多通道信息融合方法。以DSmT证据折扣理论作为融合框架,实现对短波多通道信息融合推理判决。首先,归一化OFDM帧的相对包络标准差,并通过相对包络标准差与折扣因子计算得到折扣权重。然后,通过比特软信息提取函数获得比特概率,以比特概率对基本信任分配函数定量赋值来作为证据。最后,以PCR6融合规则对多通道软信息进行融合推理判决。在多种信道条件、多种调制方式下与经典合并方式的对比仿真实验表明,所提方法可以获得明显的误码率增益和误包增益。

基于文化折扣理论的衡岳文化对外传播研究

衡岳文化是中华优秀传统文化的重要组成部分,在对外传播中极具经济价值和文化价值。本文从文化折扣的视角,分析衡岳文化对外传播现状中内容触达质量差、话语认知损耗大、受众认同感低等问题,提出在传播内容、传播话语、传播途径等方面予以改进,以降低文化折扣对衡岳文化传播的影响,实现高质量、高效率的衡岳文化对外传播。

基于价格抵扣规则下建设用地指标序贯拍卖定价机制

如何有效缓解城市用地高需求与农村用地低效率并存的矛盾是中国实现可持续发展的重要环节之一。在厘清建设用地指标内在价值的基础上,本文考虑价格抵扣的现实规则,改进了传统的互补品序贯拍卖模型,设计出具有可操作性的建设用地指标定价机制。本文通过理论推导和数值模拟对模型的解进行分析,发现价格抵扣额度与建设用地指标、建设用地的报价正相关,即增大价格抵扣额度可以提高农民复垦积极性,且抵扣额度越高,效果越好。此外,建设用地指标报价随竞标人数增多而降低,且建设用地指标报价随土地闲置费用的提高而提高,即土地闲置费用可有效地提高用地指标报价。基于此,本文针对结论得出了相关的政策建议。

基于试验数据的人工用材林最优轮伐期确定的研究进展

虽然用材林轮伐期研究长期受到国内外众多学者的关注,但有关轮伐期的内涵、轮伐期确定的标准、轮伐期模型选择以及相关变量对轮伐期的影响等方面,依然是众说纷纭,无法为构建用材林提质增效培育模式提供坚实的理论基础。本文通过梳理国内外有关轮伐期确定方面的研究成果,并以我国杉木用材林试验数据作为支撑,意在展示不同轮伐期确定准则、方法和相关影响因素对轮伐期确定的作用机理和过程,并对未来轮伐期的研究方向进行了展望。