An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
为了探讨交通运输部门的低碳发展方向,基于LEAP(longrange energy alternatives planning system)模型建立西安市道路交通运输部门运输能源与环境模型,模拟2021—2050年不同情景下交通运输部门的能源需求、CO_(2)和污染物排放变化趋势...为了探讨交通运输部门的低碳发展方向,基于LEAP(longrange energy alternatives planning system)模型建立西安市道路交通运输部门运输能源与环境模型,模拟2021—2050年不同情景下交通运输部门的能源需求、CO_(2)和污染物排放变化趋势以及减排潜力。结果表明,低碳情景(LC)下能源消耗和CO_(2)排放在2031年左右达到峰值,2050年相对基准情景(BAU)的削减率分别为32.62%、30.21%,对CO、NO_(x)、PM_(10)减排效果较好,相对BAU削减率分别为33.88%、36.27%、40.33%;各子情景中,运输结构调整情景(TSA)节能减排贡献最大,其次为绿色汽车情景(GC)和技术性节能情景(TES);要实现交通运输部门碳减排和污染物的排放控制,需调整交通结构,淘汰老旧车型和大力发展公共交通,并不断完善相应的基础设施,提高新能源汽车的市占率。展开更多
Shuffled frog leaping algorithm( SFLA) was used to solve multi-objective sequencing problem of mixed model assembly line( MMAL). Local convergence can be avoided and optimal solution can be obtained to a certain exten...Shuffled frog leaping algorithm( SFLA) was used to solve multi-objective sequencing problem of mixed model assembly line( MMAL). Local convergence can be avoided and optimal solution can be obtained to a certain extent. However,the multi-objective sequencing problem of MMAL is an non-deterministic polynomial hard( NP-hard) problem and the shortcomings are slow convergence rate and low precision. To solve the shortcomings for optimization objectives of minimizing total utility time and keeping average consumption rate of parts, a chaos differential evolution SFLA( CDESFLA) is proposed in this study. Because SFLA is easy to fall into local optimum,the evolution operator of differential evolution algorithms is introduced in SFLA as a local search strategy,and differential mutation operator is introduced in chaotic sequence to prevent premature convergence. The examples show that the proposed CDESFLA is better for convergence accuracy than SFLA,genetic algorithm( GA) and particle swarm optimization( PSO)展开更多
未来城市能源供给面临巨大的压力,同时温室气体减排也成为经济发展的一项硬约束.为探索节能减排和低碳发展背景下城市的能源需求和CO2排放变化,本文基于LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System)模型框架,建立起针对基准情...未来城市能源供给面临巨大的压力,同时温室气体减排也成为经济发展的一项硬约束.为探索节能减排和低碳发展背景下城市的能源需求和CO2排放变化,本文基于LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System)模型框架,建立起针对基准情景和节能低碳情景的能源消费和CO2排放的预测技术.以景德镇市为例,利用建立的LEAP模型预测两种情景下能源需求和CO2排放变化.结果表明,节能低碳情景下2020年景德镇市能源需求和CO2排放增速显著减缓,其中能源需求相比基准情景将降低27%,单位产值CO2排放则降低37%.展开更多
面对中国钢铁行业耗能高、CO2排放量巨大、严重供过于求导致钢铁企业大面积亏损的严峻形势,中国政府推行了淘汰落后产能、推广节能减排技术以及建立全国性碳交易市场等政策。借助长期能源规划平台LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Pl...面对中国钢铁行业耗能高、CO2排放量巨大、严重供过于求导致钢铁企业大面积亏损的严峻形势,中国政府推行了淘汰落后产能、推广节能减排技术以及建立全国性碳交易市场等政策。借助长期能源规划平台LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System),建立了LEAP-Policy模型,通过构建1个基准情景和3个政策情景来模拟分析中国钢铁产业政策的效果,并探索2015—2040年中国钢铁行业的节能减排潜力。研究发现:中国钢铁行业存在巨大的节能减排潜力,4个情景的节能减排效果排序为:碳交易市场情景(ET)>缩减产能情景(CEC)>技术推广情景(TI)>基准情景(BAU)。碳交易市场情景(ET)2040年的能源需求总量为49亿吉焦,CO2排放总量为3.61亿吨,分别比基准情景(BAU)降低了60.5%和68.4%,节能减排效果最为显著。如果政府制定的产业政策得到有效实施,中国钢铁行业未来的能源消耗和CO2排放量可以得到有效控制。展开更多
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
文摘为了探讨交通运输部门的低碳发展方向,基于LEAP(longrange energy alternatives planning system)模型建立西安市道路交通运输部门运输能源与环境模型,模拟2021—2050年不同情景下交通运输部门的能源需求、CO_(2)和污染物排放变化趋势以及减排潜力。结果表明,低碳情景(LC)下能源消耗和CO_(2)排放在2031年左右达到峰值,2050年相对基准情景(BAU)的削减率分别为32.62%、30.21%,对CO、NO_(x)、PM_(10)减排效果较好,相对BAU削减率分别为33.88%、36.27%、40.33%;各子情景中,运输结构调整情景(TSA)节能减排贡献最大,其次为绿色汽车情景(GC)和技术性节能情景(TES);要实现交通运输部门碳减排和污染物的排放控制,需调整交通结构,淘汰老旧车型和大力发展公共交通,并不断完善相应的基础设施,提高新能源汽车的市占率。
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(o.61370037)
文摘Shuffled frog leaping algorithm( SFLA) was used to solve multi-objective sequencing problem of mixed model assembly line( MMAL). Local convergence can be avoided and optimal solution can be obtained to a certain extent. However,the multi-objective sequencing problem of MMAL is an non-deterministic polynomial hard( NP-hard) problem and the shortcomings are slow convergence rate and low precision. To solve the shortcomings for optimization objectives of minimizing total utility time and keeping average consumption rate of parts, a chaos differential evolution SFLA( CDESFLA) is proposed in this study. Because SFLA is easy to fall into local optimum,the evolution operator of differential evolution algorithms is introduced in SFLA as a local search strategy,and differential mutation operator is introduced in chaotic sequence to prevent premature convergence. The examples show that the proposed CDESFLA is better for convergence accuracy than SFLA,genetic algorithm( GA) and particle swarm optimization( PSO)
文摘未来城市能源供给面临巨大的压力,同时温室气体减排也成为经济发展的一项硬约束.为探索节能减排和低碳发展背景下城市的能源需求和CO2排放变化,本文基于LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System)模型框架,建立起针对基准情景和节能低碳情景的能源消费和CO2排放的预测技术.以景德镇市为例,利用建立的LEAP模型预测两种情景下能源需求和CO2排放变化.结果表明,节能低碳情景下2020年景德镇市能源需求和CO2排放增速显著减缓,其中能源需求相比基准情景将降低27%,单位产值CO2排放则降低37%.
文摘面对中国钢铁行业耗能高、CO2排放量巨大、严重供过于求导致钢铁企业大面积亏损的严峻形势,中国政府推行了淘汰落后产能、推广节能减排技术以及建立全国性碳交易市场等政策。借助长期能源规划平台LEAP(Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System),建立了LEAP-Policy模型,通过构建1个基准情景和3个政策情景来模拟分析中国钢铁产业政策的效果,并探索2015—2040年中国钢铁行业的节能减排潜力。研究发现:中国钢铁行业存在巨大的节能减排潜力,4个情景的节能减排效果排序为:碳交易市场情景(ET)>缩减产能情景(CEC)>技术推广情景(TI)>基准情景(BAU)。碳交易市场情景(ET)2040年的能源需求总量为49亿吉焦,CO2排放总量为3.61亿吨,分别比基准情景(BAU)降低了60.5%和68.4%,节能减排效果最为显著。如果政府制定的产业政策得到有效实施,中国钢铁行业未来的能源消耗和CO2排放量可以得到有效控制。
