Revisiting Akaike’s Final Prediction Error and the Generalized Cross Validation Criteria in Regression from the Same Perspective: From Least Squares to Ridge Regression and Smoothing Splines

In regression, despite being both aimed at estimating the Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), Akaike’s Final Prediction Error (FPE) and the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) selection criteria are usually derived from two quite different perspectives. Here, settling on the most commonly accepted definition of the MSPE as the expectation of the squared prediction error loss, we provide theoretical expressions for it, valid for any linear model (LM) fitter, be it under random or non random designs. Specializing these MSPE expressions for each of them, we are able to derive closed formulas of the MSPE for some of the most popular LM fitters: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), with or without a full column rank design matrix;Ordinary and Generalized Ridge regression, the latter embedding smoothing splines fitting. For each of these LM fitters, we then deduce a computable estimate of the MSPE which turns out to coincide with Akaike’s FPE. Using a slight variation, we similarly get a class of MSPE estimates coinciding with the classical GCV formula for those same LM fitters.

Discrimination of Transgenic Rice Based on Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares Regression Discriminant Analysis

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy （NIRS）, a non-destructive measurement technique, was combined with partial least squares regression discrimiant analysis （PLS-DA） to discriminate the transgenic （TCTP and mi166） and wild type （Zhonghua 11） rice. Furthermore, rice lines transformed with protein gene （OsTCTP） and regulation gene （Osmi166） were also discriminated by the NIRS method. The performances of PLS-DA in spectral ranges of 4 000-8 000 cm-1 and 4 000-10 000 cm-1 were compared to obtain the optimal spectral range. As a result, the transgenic and wild type rice were distinguished from each other in the range of 4 000-10 000 cm-1, and the correct classification rate was 100.0% in the validation test. The transgenic rice TCTP and mi166 were also distinguished from each other in the range of 4 000-10 000 cm-1, and the correct classification rate was also 100.0%. In conclusion, NIRS combined with PLS-DA can be used for the discrimination of transgenic rice.

Estimating Wheat Grain Protein Content Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

Estimating wheat grain protein content by remote sensing is important for assessing wheat quality at maturity and making grains harvest and purchase policies. However, spatial variability of soil condition, temperature, and precipitation will affect grain protein contents and these factors usually cannot be monitored accurately by remote sensing data from single image. In this research, the relationships between wheat protein content at maturity and wheat agronomic parameters at different growing stages were analyzed and multi-temporal images of Landsat TM were used to estimate grain protein content by partial least squares regression. Experiment data were acquired in the suburb of Beijing during a 2-yr experiment in the period from 2003 to 2004. Determination coefficient, average deviation of self-modeling, and deviation of cross- validation were employed to assess the estimation accuracy of wheat grain protein content. Their values were 0.88, 1.30%, 3.81% and 0.72, 5.22%, 12.36% for 2003 and 2004, respectively. The research laid an agronomic foundation for GPC （grain protein content） estimation by multi-temporal remote sensing. The results showed that it is feasible to estimate GPC of wheat from multi-temporal remote sensing data in large area.

Improved adaptive pruning algorithm for least squares support vector regression

As the solutions of the least squares support vector regression machine （LS-SVRM） are not sparse, it leads to slow prediction speed and limits its applications. The defects of the ex- isting adaptive pruning algorithm for LS-SVRM are that the training speed is slow, and the generalization performance is not satis- factory, especially for large scale problems. Hence an improved algorithm is proposed. In order to accelerate the training speed, the pruned data point and fast leave-one-out error are employed to validate the temporary model obtained after decremental learning. The novel objective function in the termination condition which in- volves the whole constraints generated by all training data points and three pruning strategies are employed to improve the generali- zation performance. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is tested on six benchmark datasets. The sparse LS-SVRM model has a faster training speed and better generalization performance.

Flatness intelligent control via improved least squares support vector regression algorithm

To overcome the disadvantage that the standard least squares support vector regression(LS-SVR) algorithm is not suitable to multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) system modelling directly,an improved LS-SVR algorithm which was defined as multi-output least squares support vector regression(MLSSVR) was put forward by adding samples' absolute errors in objective function and applied to flatness intelligent control.To solve the poor-precision problem of the control scheme based on effective matrix in flatness control,the predictive control was introduced into the control system and the effective matrix-predictive flatness control method was proposed by combining the merits of the two methods.Simulation experiment was conducted on 900HC reversible cold roll.The performance of effective matrix method and the effective matrix-predictive control method were compared,and the results demonstrate the validity of the effective matrix-predictive control method.

Fault diagnosis of power-shift steering transmission based on multiple outputs least squares support vector regression

A method of multiple outputs least squares support vector regression （LS-SVR） was developed and described in detail, with the radial basis function （RBF） as the kernel function. The method was applied to predict the future state of the power-shift steering transmission （PSST）. A prediction model of PSST was gotten with multiple outputs LS-SVR. The model performance was greatly influenced by the penalty parameter γ and kernel parameter σ2 which were optimized using cross validation method. The training and prediction of the model were done with spectrometric oil analysis data. The predictive and actual values were compared and a fault in the second PSST was found. The research proved that this method had good accuracy in PSST fault prediction, and any possible problem in PSST could be found through a comparative analysis.

Characterizing and estimating rice brown spot disease severity using stepwise regression,principal component regression and partial least-square regression

Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of healthy and infected leaves by the fungus Bipolaris oryzae (Helminthosporium oryzae Breda. de Hann) through the wavelength range from 350 to 2 500 nm. The percentage of leaf surface lesions was estimated and defined as the disease severity. Statistical methods like multiple stepwise regression, principal component analysis and partial least-square regression were utilized to calculate and estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot at the leaf level. Our results revealed that multiple stepwise linear regressions could efficiently estimate disease severity with three wavebands in seven steps. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for training (n=210) and testing (n=53) dataset were 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Principal component analysis showed that the first principal component could explain approximately 80% of the variance of the original hyperspectral reflectance. The regression model with the first two principal components predicted a disease severity with RMSEs of 16.3% and 13.9% for the training and testing dataset, respec-tively. Partial least-square regression with seven extracted factors could most effectively predict disease severity compared with other statistical methods with RMSEs of 4.1% and 2.0% for the training and testing dataset, respectively. Our research demon-strates that it is feasible to estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot using hyperspectral reflectance data at the leaf level.

Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Three Components Including Deoxyschizandrin by Partial Least Squares Regression

The computer auxiliary partial least squares is introduced to simultaneously determine the contents of Deoxyschizandin, Schisandrin, r-Schisandrin in the extracted solution of wuweizi. Regression analysis of the experimental results shows that the average recovery of each component is all in the range from 98.9% to 110.3% , which means the partial least squares regression spectrophotometry can circumvent the overlappirtg of absorption spectrums of mlulti-components, so that sctisfactory results can be obtained without any scrapple pre-separation.

A sparse algorithm for adaptive pruning least square support vector regression machine based on global representative point ranking

Least square support vector regression(LSSVR)is a method for function approximation,whose solutions are typically non-sparse,which limits its application especially in some occasions of fast prediction.In this paper,a sparse algorithm for adaptive pruning LSSVR algorithm based on global representative point ranking(GRPR-AP-LSSVR)is proposed.At first,the global representative point ranking(GRPR)algorithm is given,and relevant data analysis experiment is implemented which depicts the importance ranking of data points.Furthermore,the pruning strategy of removing two samples in the decremental learning procedure is designed to accelerate the training speed and ensure the sparsity.The removed data points are utilized to test the temporary learning model which ensures the regression accuracy.Finally,the proposed algorithm is verified on artificial datasets and UCI regression datasets,and experimental results indicate that,compared with several benchmark algorithms,the GRPR-AP-LSSVR algorithm has excellent sparsity and prediction speed without impairing the generalization performance.

Partial Least Squares Regression Model to Predict Water Quality in Urban Water Distribution Systems

The water distribution system of one residential district in Tianjin is taken as an example to analyze the changes of water quality.Partial least squares(PLS) regression model,in which the turbidity and Fe are regarded as control objectives,is used to establish the statistical model.The experimental results indicate that the PLS regression model has good predicted results of water quality compared with the monitored data.The percentages of absolute relative error(below 15%,20%,30%) are 44.4%,66.7%,100%(turbidity) and 33.3%,44.4%,77.8%(Fe) on the 4th sampling point;77.8%,88.9%,88.9%(turbidity) and 44.4%,55.6%,66.7%(Fe) on the 5th sampling point.

Application of partial least squares regression in data analysis of mining subsidence

Based on the surveying data of strata-moving angle and the ordinary least squares regression, this paper is to construct, a regression model is constructed which is strata-moving parameter β concerning the coal bed obliquity, coal thickness, mining depth, etc. But the regression is unsuccessful. The result is that none of the parameters is suited, this is not up to objective reality. This paper presents a novel method, partial least squares regression (PLS regression), to construct the statistic model of strata-moving parameter β. The experiment shows that the forecasting model is reasonable.

Linear-regression models and algorithms based on the Total-Least-Squares principle

In classical regression analysis, the error of independent variable is usually not taken into account in regression analysis. This paper presents two solution methods for the case that both the independent and the dependent variables have errors. These methods are derived from the condition-adjustment and indirect-adjustment models based on the Total-Least-Squares principle. The equivalence of these two methods is also proven in theory.

Improved Scheme for Fast Approximation to Least Squares Support Vector Regression

The solution of normal least squares support vector regression(LSSVR)is lack of sparseness,which limits the real-time and hampers the wide applications to a certain degree.To overcome this obstacle,a scheme,named I2FSA-LSSVR,is proposed.Compared with the previously approximate algorithms,it not only adopts the partial reduction strategy but considers the influence between the previously selected support vectors and the willselected support vector during the process of computing the supporting weights.As a result,I2FSA-LSSVR reduces the number of support vectors and enhances the real-time.To confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm,experiments on benchmark data sets are conducted,whose results support the presented I2FSA-LSSVR.

Boosting the partial least square algorithm for regression modelling

Boosting algorithms are a class of general methods used to improve the general periormance of regression analysis. The main idea is to maintain a distribution over the train set. In order to use the given distribution directly, a modified PLS algorithm is proposed and used as the base learner to deal with the nonlinear multivariate regression problems. Experiments on gasoline octane number prediction demonstrate that boosting the modified PLS algorithm has better general performance over the PLS algorithm.

Improved scheme to accelerate sparse least squares support vector regression

The pruning algorithms for sparse least squares support vector regression machine are common methods, and easily com- prehensible, but the computational burden in the training phase is heavy due to the retraining in performing the pruning process, which is not favorable for their applications. To this end, an im- proved scheme is proposed to accelerate sparse least squares support vector regression machine. A major advantage of this new scheme is based on the iterative methodology, which uses the previous training results instead of retraining, and its feasibility is strictly verified theoretically. Finally, experiments on bench- mark data sets corroborate a significant saving of the training time with the same number of support vectors and predictive accuracy compared with the original pruning algorithms, and this speedup scheme is also extended to classification problem.

A partial least-squares regression approach to land use studies in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region

In several LUCC studies, statistical methods are being used to analyze land use data. A problem using conventional statistical methods in land use analysis is that these methods assume the data to be statistically independent. But in fact, they have the tendency to be dependent, a phenomenon known as multicollinearity, especially in the cases of few observations. In this paper, a Partial Least-Squares （PLS） regression approach is developed to study relationships between land use and its influencing factors through a case study of the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region in China. Multicollinearity exists in the dataset and the number of variables is high compared to the number of observations. Four PLS factors are selected through a preliminary analysis. The correlation analyses between land use and influencing factors demonstrate the land use character of rural industrialization and urbanization in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region, meanwhile illustrate that the first PLS factor has enough ability to best describe land use patterns quantitatively, and most of the statistical relations derived from it accord with the fact. By the decreasing capacity of the PLS factors, the reliability of model outcome decreases correspondingly.

Comparison of dimension reduction-based logistic regression models for case-control genome-wide association study:principal components analysis vs.partial least squares

With recent advances in biotechnology, genome-wide association study （GWAS） has been widely used to identify genetic variants that underlie human complex diseases and traits. In case-control GWAS, typical statistical strategy is traditional logistical regression （LR） based on single-locus analysis. However, such a single-locus analysis leads to the well-known multiplicity problem, with a risk of inflating type I error and reducing power. Dimension reduction-based techniques, such as principal component-based logistic regression （PC-LR）, partial least squares-based logistic regression （PLS-LR）, have recently gained much attention in the analysis of high dimensional genomic data. However, the perfor- mance of these methods is still not clear, especially in GWAS. We conducted simulations and real data application to compare the type I error and power of PC-LR, PLS-LR and LR applicable to GWAS within a defined single nucleotide polymorphism （SNP） set region. We found that PC-LR and PLS can reasonably control type I error under null hypothesis. On contrast, LR, which is corrected by Bonferroni method, was more conserved in all simulation settings. In particular, we found that PC-LR and PLS-LR had comparable power and they both outperformed LR, especially when the causal SNP was in high linkage disequilibrium with genotyped ones and with a small effective size in simulation. Based on SNP set analysis, we applied all three methods to analyze non-small cell lung cancer GWAS data.

Based on Partial Least-squares Regression to Build up and Analyze the Model of Rice Evapotranspiration

During the course of calculating the rice evapotranspiration using weather factors,we often find that some independent variables have multiple correlation.The phenomena can lead to the traditional multivariate regression model which based on least square method distortion.And the stability of the model will be lost.The model will be built based on partial least square regression in the paper,through applying the idea of main component analyze and typical correlation analyze,the writer picks up some component from original material.Thus,the writer builds up the model of rice evapotranspiration to solve the multiple correlation among the independent variables (some weather factors).At last,the writer analyses the model in some parts,and gains the satisfied result.

Medium Term Load Forecasting for Jordan Electric Power System Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Least Square Regression Methods

This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid for year of 2015. Linear, quadratic and exponential forecast models have been examined to perform this study and compared with the Auto Regressive (AR) model. MTLF models were influenced by the weather which should be considered when predicting the future peak load demand in terms of months and weeks. The main contribution for this paper is the conduction of MTLF study for Jordan on weekly and monthly basis using real data obtained from National Electric Power Company NEPCO. This study is aimed to develop practical models and algorithm techniques for MTLF to be used by the operators of Jordan power grid. The results are compared with the actual peak load data to attain minimum percentage error. The value of the forecasted weekly and monthly peak loads obtained from these models is examined using Least Square Error (LSE). Actual reported data from NEPCO are used to analyze the performance of the proposed approach and the results are reported and compared with the results obtained from PSO algorithm and AR model.