Background： A random multiple-regression model that simultaneously fit all allele substitution effects for additive markers or haplotypes as uncorrelated random effects was proposed for Best Linear Unbiased Predictio...Background： A random multiple-regression model that simultaneously fit all allele substitution effects for additive markers or haplotypes as uncorrelated random effects was proposed for Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, using whole-genome data. Leave-one-out cross validation can be used to quantify the predictive ability of a statistical model.Methods： Naive application of Leave-one-out cross validation is computationally intensive because the training and validation analyses need to be repeated n times, once for each observation. Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies are presented here, requiring little more effort than a single analysis.Results： Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies is 786 times faster than the naive application for a simulated dataset with 1,000 observations and 10,000 markers and 99 times faster with 1,000 observations and 100 markers. These efficiencies relative to the naive approach using the same model will increase with increases in the number of observations.Conclusions： Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies are presented here, requiring little more effort than a single analysis.展开更多
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November...Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.展开更多
径向基函数(Radial Basis Function,RBF)是一种确定性的多维空间插值模型,可以有效逼近任意维度的空间数据。RBF插值模型中,基函数形态参数直接影响插值精度。为了快速求解最佳形态参数,获取准确的插值结果,该文采用改进的逐点交叉验证(...径向基函数(Radial Basis Function,RBF)是一种确定性的多维空间插值模型,可以有效逼近任意维度的空间数据。RBF插值模型中,基函数形态参数直接影响插值精度。为了快速求解最佳形态参数,获取准确的插值结果,该文采用改进的逐点交叉验证(Improved Leave One Out Cross Validation,ILOOCV)方法求取最优形态参数,首先从形态参数取值区间内选定初始形态参数α,然后从n个已知点中顺序选出一个点,使用剩下的n-1个已知点构建RBF插值模型,计算被取出点处真实值与插值结果的误差,循环n次,累计交叉验证误差,再依次从形态参数取值区间选取下一个值,重复操作,建立形态参数α与累计交叉验证误差之间的函数映射关系,最后通过最小化交叉验证误差来获取最佳形态参数。以我国东北地区气象观测数据进行实验,对ILOOCV方法进行验证,结果表明ILOOCV方法选取最佳形态参数使其插值结果比较精确,是一种可行的RBF形态参数优化方法。展开更多
[目的]嫩度是肉品质量的首要指标,其影响牛肉的消费和商业价值;寻找合适的嫩度指标,快速、无损、客观地预测牛肉嫩度一直是肉品学研究的热点之一。[方法]本文基于机器视觉技术和图像处理方法,分割牛肉图像的肌间结缔组织区域,提取肌间...[目的]嫩度是肉品质量的首要指标,其影响牛肉的消费和商业价值;寻找合适的嫩度指标,快速、无损、客观地预测牛肉嫩度一直是肉品学研究的热点之一。[方法]本文基于机器视觉技术和图像处理方法,分割牛肉图像的肌间结缔组织区域,提取肌间结缔组织的特征参数,运用统计学方法关联该特征参数和熟肉剪切力值,结合经过专门训练的评级小组的分级,采用Stepwise多元线性回归(Stepwise-MLR)建模,对牛肉嫩度进行预测和分级。[结果]70个样本图像的结缔组织特征数据全部用于训练模型,采用留一法交叉验证(Leave-one-out cross validation)测试模型,验证模型的牛肉嫩度判别系数(R^2)为0.857,剩余标准误差(residual standard error,RSEC)为6.453;将牛肉分为嫩、中等、老3个等级,全部预测集的总体等级预测正确率为88.57%。[结论]肌间结缔组织特征是预测牛肉嫩度的重要指标,本文所用的软硬件方法对牛肉嫩度的快速、无损、客观预测和分级具有一定的实用价值及指导意义。展开更多
基金supported by the US Department of Agriculture,Agriculture and Food Research Initiative National Institute of Food and Agriculture Competitive grant no.2015-67015-22947
文摘Background： A random multiple-regression model that simultaneously fit all allele substitution effects for additive markers or haplotypes as uncorrelated random effects was proposed for Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, using whole-genome data. Leave-one-out cross validation can be used to quantify the predictive ability of a statistical model.Methods： Naive application of Leave-one-out cross validation is computationally intensive because the training and validation analyses need to be repeated n times, once for each observation. Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies are presented here, requiring little more effort than a single analysis.Results： Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies is 786 times faster than the naive application for a simulated dataset with 1,000 observations and 10,000 markers and 99 times faster with 1,000 observations and 100 markers. These efficiencies relative to the naive approach using the same model will increase with increases in the number of observations.Conclusions： Efficient Leave-one-out cross validation strategies are presented here, requiring little more effort than a single analysis.
文摘Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.
文摘径向基函数(Radial Basis Function,RBF)是一种确定性的多维空间插值模型,可以有效逼近任意维度的空间数据。RBF插值模型中,基函数形态参数直接影响插值精度。为了快速求解最佳形态参数,获取准确的插值结果,该文采用改进的逐点交叉验证(Improved Leave One Out Cross Validation,ILOOCV)方法求取最优形态参数,首先从形态参数取值区间内选定初始形态参数α,然后从n个已知点中顺序选出一个点,使用剩下的n-1个已知点构建RBF插值模型,计算被取出点处真实值与插值结果的误差,循环n次,累计交叉验证误差,再依次从形态参数取值区间选取下一个值,重复操作,建立形态参数α与累计交叉验证误差之间的函数映射关系,最后通过最小化交叉验证误差来获取最佳形态参数。以我国东北地区气象观测数据进行实验,对ILOOCV方法进行验证,结果表明ILOOCV方法选取最佳形态参数使其插值结果比较精确,是一种可行的RBF形态参数优化方法。
文摘[目的]嫩度是肉品质量的首要指标,其影响牛肉的消费和商业价值;寻找合适的嫩度指标,快速、无损、客观地预测牛肉嫩度一直是肉品学研究的热点之一。[方法]本文基于机器视觉技术和图像处理方法,分割牛肉图像的肌间结缔组织区域,提取肌间结缔组织的特征参数,运用统计学方法关联该特征参数和熟肉剪切力值,结合经过专门训练的评级小组的分级,采用Stepwise多元线性回归(Stepwise-MLR)建模,对牛肉嫩度进行预测和分级。[结果]70个样本图像的结缔组织特征数据全部用于训练模型,采用留一法交叉验证(Leave-one-out cross validation)测试模型,验证模型的牛肉嫩度判别系数(R^2)为0.857,剩余标准误差(residual standard error,RSEC)为6.453;将牛肉分为嫩、中等、老3个等级,全部预测集的总体等级预测正确率为88.57%。[结论]肌间结缔组织特征是预测牛肉嫩度的重要指标,本文所用的软硬件方法对牛肉嫩度的快速、无损、客观预测和分级具有一定的实用价值及指导意义。
