Analysis and Comparison on Population Dynamics between Adenophoralobophylla and Adenophora potaninii by Leslie Matrix

The population dynamic tendency of Adenophora Iobophvlla Hong as an endangered species and Adenophora potaninii Korsh as widespread species. has been predicted by the Leslie matrix. And the comparison and analysis on the age structures between two species have been carried out in this paper. The results demonstrate the A. lobophylla popuations which have the reasonable age struetures perform slowly negative or positive increment at altitude 2300-3400 m. Especially. below altitude 2700 m. there are many populations performing seriously declining tendcncy. Contrary, A potaninii populations could adapt to environment perfectly at the corresponding condition without finding the population which performs the seriously declining tendency. The differences in developing tendency of population between the two species demonstrate that A. Iobopliylla populations have the weaker ability to adapt to the external unfavorable conditions.

Hybrid LEAP modeling method for long-term energy demand forecasting of regions with limited statistical data

An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.

Population dynamics and considerations for the conservation of the rare Cycas fairylakea in China

Quantitative dynamics and viability of a rare and wild Cycas fairylakea population were studied with a time-specific life table, a Leslie matrix model and a survival function in order to provide scientific guidance for its protection. The results of the time- specific life table show that this C. fairylakea population suffered a high death rate in three age classes, i.e., age class 1 （0-15 years）, V （61-75 years） and VI （76-90 years）. The Leslie matrix model suggests that the number of plants would decline from the present 1613 to 59 per hectare in 150 years. Furthermore, the viability analysis indicates that seedlings have the highest mortality density rate and that middle-aged plants （i.e., 61-75 years, 76-90 years） have high mortality density rate and hazard rate. These conditions affect natural regeneration of the population and lead to a lack of seedlings which in turn causes the extinction of the population. An in situ conservation of the population should be established and protection measures taken as soon as possible.

A Model of Vary in Distance Leslie Matrix of the Giant Panda's Population at Wu-YiPeng,Wolong

A new Vary in Distance Leslie Matrix is adopted to process the observed data of a giant panda population’s development trend dynamics with unequal distance age groups. Results show that this new method adopted is much simpler than the usual lesile Matrix analysis, and no need of deviding the pandas into equal distance age groups and no so many asumptions are needed as in the usual Leslie Methods. We only changed the meaning of some elements in Leslie Matrix and processed the developmental trend of panda population in Wolong Wu Yi Peng successfully we also carried out a sensitivity analysis of many parameters as well as the computer simulation.

Developing, testing and application of rodent population dynamics and capture models based on an adjusted Leslie matrix-based population approach

Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Apodemus agrarius in particular, damage crops and cause major economic losses in China. Therefore, accurate predic- tions of the population size of A. agrarius and an efficient control strategy are urgently needed. We developed a population dynamics model by applying a Leslie matrix method, and a capture model based on optimal harvesting theory for A. agrarius. Our models were parametrized using demographic estimates from a capture-mark-recapture （CMR） study conducted on the Qinshui Forest Farm in Northwestern China. The population dynamics model incorporated 12 equally balanced age groups and included immigra- tion and emigration parameters. The model was evaluated by assessing the predictions for four years based on the known starting population in 2004 from the 2004-2007 CMR data. The capture model incorporated two functional age categories （juvenile and adult） and used density-dependent and density-independent factors. The models were used to assess the effect of rodent control measures between 2004 and 2023 on population dynamics and the resulting numbers of rats. Three control measures affecting survival rates were considered. We found that the predicted population dynamics of A. agrarius between 2004 and 2007 compared favorably with the observed population dynamics. The models predicted that the population sizes of A. agrarius in the period between 2004 and 2023 under the control measure applied in August 2004 were very similar to the optimal population sizes, and no significant difference was found between the two pop- ulation sizes. We recommend using the population dynamics and capture models based on CMR-estimated demographic schedules for rodent, provided these data are available.The models that we have developed have the potential to play an important role in pre- dicting the effects of rodent management and in evaluating different control strategies.