Improvement of Coding for Solar Radiation Forecasting in Dili Timor Leste—A WRF Case Study

This paper investigates the accuracy of weather research and forecasting by improving coding for solar radiation forecasting for location in Dili Timor Leste. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.9.1 is used in this study for improvement purposes. The shortwave coding of WRF is used to improve in order to decrease error simulation. The importance of improving WRF coding at a specific region will reduce the bias and root mean square root when comparing to the observed data. This study uses high resolution based on the WRF modeling to stabilize the performance of forecasting. The decrease in error performance will be expected to enhance the value of renewable energy. The results show the root mean square error of the WRF default is 233 W/m2 higher compared to 205 W/m2 from the WRF improvement model. In addition, the Mean Bias Error (MBE) of the WRF default is obtained value 0.06 higher than 0.03 from the WRF improvement in rainy days. Meanwhile, on sunny days, the performance Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of WRF default is 327 W/m2 higher than 223 W/m2 from the WRF improvement. The MBE of WRF improvement obtained 0.13 lower compared to 0.21 of WRF default coding. Finally, this study concludes that improving the shortwave code under the WRF model can decrease the error performance of the WRF simulation for local weather forecasting.

A Case Study: Performance Comparison of Solar Power Generation between GridLAB-D and SAM in Dili Timor Leste

Study of comparison of solar power generation between the GridLAB-D tool and System Advisor Model (SAM) in Dili, Timor Leste is presented in this paper. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate solar radiation for one calendar year from January to December 2014 using six-hourly interval 1° × 1° NCEP FNL analysis data. The one calendar year results from the WRF model will be used as input data for GridLAB-D and SAM to estimate the solar power generation. GridLAB-D is an open-source and analysis tool designed to operate the distribution power systems with a high-performance algorithm. System Advisor Model version SAM 2017.9.5 is used to estimate solar power performance with Photovoltaics (PVWatts)- Commercial Distributed model. This model is designed to analyze the performance and the financing of renewable energy for electricity generation. The results show the lowest solar radiation is 512 W/m2 obtained in June with an average monthly power of 20.6 kW and 30.55 kW generated from the SAM model and the GridLAB-D simulator, respectively. Meanwhile, the highest solar radiation is 1100 W/m2, 1112 W/m2, 1046 W/m2, and 1077 W/m2 obtained in October, November, December, and January with an average monthly power of 55.72 kW, 62.44 kW, 56.65 kW, and 56.97 kW from the SAM model, in the other hand, 48.89 kW, 51.31 kW, 55.51 kW, and 57.18 kW generated by the GridLAB-D. Finally, the results show that the performance of the GridLAB-D and the SAM model was quite good because both model precisely presented values are almost closest to each other. This study proposes that the results of solar output power from both methods, GridLAB-D and SAM can be used to design grid-connected or stand-alone electric power projects to increase the quality of electricity generation in Dili, Timor Leste.

for fear(that)与lest有何区别?

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Combination of WRF Model and LSTM Network for Solar Radiation Forecasting—Timor Leste Case Study

A study of a combination of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network for location in Dili Timor Leste is introduced in this paper. One calendar year’s results of solar radiation from January to December 2014 are used as input data to estimate future forecasting of solar radiation using the LSTM network for three months period. The WRF model version 3.9.1 is used to simulate one year’s solar radiation in horizontal resolution low scale for nesting domain 1 × 1 km. It is done by applying 6-hourly interval 1º × 1º NCEP FNL analysis data used as Global Forecast System (GFS). LSTM network is applied for forecasting in numerous learning problems for solar radiation forecasting. LSTM network uses two-layer LSTM architecture of 512 hidden neurons coupled with a dense output layer with linear as the model activation to predict with time steps are configured to 50 and the number of features is 1. The maximum epoch is set to 325 with batch size 300 and the validation split is 0.09. The results demonstrate that the combination of these two methods can successfully predict solar radiation where four error metrics of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized MBE (nMBE), and normalized RMSE (nRMSE) perform small error distribution and percentage in three months prediction where the error percentage is obtained below the 20% for nMBE and nRMSE. Meanwhile, the error distribution of RMSE is obtained below 200 W/m2 and maximum bias error is 0.07. Finally, the values of MBE, RMSE, nMBE, and nRMSE conclude that the good performance of the combination of two methods in this study can be applied to simulate any other weather variable for local necessary.

电控汽油喷射器开启响应特性测试台的研制

通过分析电控汽油喷射器的结构组成和工作原理,并依据钢球开启不同阶段线圈电流曲线的变化特点提出了一种钢球开启响应时间参数测试新方法。以80C196单片机为核心开发了电控汽油喷射器开启响应特性测试台,实现了钢球开始运动时刻及完全开启时刻的自动检测。该测试台主要由电喷汽油机供油系统、单片机控制系统、汽油喷射器驱动电路、钢球开启响应特性检测电路等部分组成。通过对比实验对所提出的检测方法的有效性进行了验证,并利用该测试台对不同类型电控汽油喷射器的开启时间参数进行了实验测试。结果表明,该系统具有结构简单、使用方便、测试精度高的显著特点,可以满足电控汽油喷射器开启响应特性实际测试的需要。

武器系统虚拟试验验证技术发展研究

虚拟试验验证是贯穿军工产品全生命周期的核心技术之一;它通过将系统工程方法、虚拟现实技术和计算机仿真技术有机地结合起来,构建数字化的试验和测试环境,评价军工产品关键系统的功能和性能等是否满足设计要求,验证系统之间互操作的协调性和匹配性;该报告以复杂军工产品试验验证过程为背景,对虚拟试验验证技术的概念和内涵进行了阐述,对虚拟试验验证应用系统的构成和关键技术进行了分析,在此基础上介绍了虚拟试验验证的典型应用和发展前景。

数字式牵引变压器综合测试与故障诊断系统的实现

根据我国目前铁路行业标准和电力机车主机厂现有技术条件,设计开发了一种新型的全自动数字式牵引变压器综合测试与故障诊断系统;通过对牵引变压器试验电源系统的研究和归纳,依据试验中对电源容量要求和接线方式的不同,将整个测试系统分为功能电源部分、上层工控机控制系统、可编程序控制器控制系统和变频调速系统;现场运行表明,利用该系统可以大大提高工作效率,且各项试验数据精确,可靠性高。

网络中心化军事信息系统能力评估

首先,介绍了网络中心化军事信息系统的概念,从系统技术、作战应用和完成任务等能力出发,初步建立了一个多维多层次的系统能力评估指标体系;然后,提出了底层指标和综合类指标的评估方法;最后,以信息服务能力指标评估为例,介绍了基于仿真试验的评估方法。

基于多方法集成的复杂工艺优化设计研究

针对流程工业复杂的连续生产工艺的特点,提出了基于模式识别、神经网络、遗传算法、非线性回归等多种智能技术集成的复杂工艺过程优化系统的设计思想、体系结构、关键技术和实现方法,主要解决多因子、高噪声、非线性、非高斯分布和非均匀的复杂工艺系统难题。采用代理技术设计系统的体系结构,用偏最小二乘法和Chelyshev多项式建立领域模型,通过演化计算进行最优问题求解,并用正交实验取得模型学习的样本数。实际应用证明,利用这些方法可以在很少的实验情况下,使所建立的模型能在较大误差范围内指导生产实践。

基于多方法集成的复杂工艺优化智能配方系统研究

介绍多因子工艺优化配方智能系统的设计思想、系统的结构、关键技术和实现的工具,主要解决因素多、工艺复杂的工业生产中工艺配方优化问题。文中采用Agent技术设计系统的体系结构,用偏最小二乘法和Chelyshev多项式建立领域模型,通过演化计算进行最优问题求解,并用正交实验取得模型学习的样本数。实际应用证明,利用这些方法可以在很少的实验情况下,使建立的模型能在较大误差范围内指导生产实践。

新型深穿透酸液体系在西峰油田长8特低渗透储层中的应用

针对西峰油田长8特低渗透储层注水井注水效果不好,欠注严重,普通酸液增注效果不理想的实际情况,通过岩心溶蚀实验,确定了该油田储层主体酸化用液配方,在此基础上研制了新型深穿透酸液体系SG-1。通过室内静态和动态实验,对该体系的防腐性能、防乳化及酸渣性能、稳定铁离子能力、防膨性能、配伍性、注入性能、热稳定性及岩心酸化效果等进行了评价。现场试验结果表明,使用新型深穿透酸化体系SG-1后,西峰油田西31-14井在油压为18.4MPa的条件下,注入量达到41m3/d,吸水指数达到了2.23m3/(d·MPa),与措施前相比,注入量增加了19m3/d,吸水指数提高了85.6%,有效地解决了油藏的欠注问题,并取得了较好的增油效果,具有良好的推广应用价值。

基于CATS面向信号的TPS开发设计

本文介绍了CATS测试系统开发平台,以及在该平台上进行TPS开发过程,并以数字万用表资源测量某LRU的输出电压为例,详细介绍了面向信号的测试程序开发步骤,实现了在基于CATS平台下面向信号的TPS的开发,为解决航空电子装备的LRU维修问题提供一种可行的研究思路。

基于多方法集成的复杂工艺优化

介绍了基于模式识别、神经网络、遗传算法、非线性回归等多种智能技术集成的复杂工艺过程优化系统的设计思想、体系结构、关键技术和实现方法,主要解决多因子、高噪声、非线性、非高斯分布和非均匀的复杂工艺系统难题。采用Agent技术设计系统的体系结构,用偏最小二乘法和Chelyshev多项式建立领域模型,通过演化计算进行最优问题求解,并用正交实验取得模型学习的样本数。实际应用证明,利用这些方法可以在很少的实验情况下,使建立的模型能在较大误差范围内指导生产实践。

Fermat小定理的若干证明及应用

文章分别通过 Euler定理、Wilson定理、既约剩余系、同余理论、原根理论、整多项式理论给出了 Fermat小定理的若干种证明方法 。

我国外商投资法律体系反思与重构

改革开放至今,我国外资法律体系从无到有先后经历了三个阶段的发展变化,对促进经济发展起到了积极的作用。然而,国际投资自由化和国内改革纵深推进影响下,现行外资法律体系弊端日益凸显,体系重构已是必然。未来改革应在结合现行外资法律体系自有特点、优势和国际投资趋势的基础上,通过集中立法方式制定单独、统一的外国投资法,并于其中确立准入前国民待遇和负面清单基本外资管理模式、备案申报制和国家安全审查等核心制度。

系统辨识在水位流量关系中的应用

用传统方法拟合平稳河流的水位流量关系,往往精度不高,与实际测量不能很好的重合。对于局部线性的水位流量关系,用系统辨识理论对其进行建模,利用最小二乘法,拟合精度明显提高。

“一国两制”构想的伟大创新

邓小平创造性地提出并推动实施了"一国两制"的伟大构想,这反映了中国政府在解决重大历史问题时务实而明智的作风。本文从国家学说和国家统一思想、国家宪法内容和地方自治立法、国家管理结构和地方自治体制以及解决历史遗留问题的思路和方式等四个方面,对"一国两制"政策在形成与实施过程中的诸多重大创新加以总结和探究。

谈英语中几个状语从句的分类

语法学家多把forfearthat、lest以及某些情况下incase引导的从句归类为目的状语从句,本文旨在通过语义和例证分析论证forfearthat引导的从句为原因状语从句;lest和incase引导的从句在某些情况下亦应归类为原因状语从句。

Verification of option parity relations in domestic warrants market of China

This paper screens five pairs of call walTants/put warrants with the same listing date and final exercise date from domestic delisted wattant, and collects and processes relevant statistic in warrant market and stock market. Because inconformity of strike price between call warrants/put warrants in domestic warrant market, and regarding the strike price of put warrants as standard, this paper takes advantage of BSM formula recalculates the price of call warrants, and carries out verification of option parity relations by regression analysis and Wilcoxon＇s Sign Rank Test. From a theoretical point of view, homogenous call warrants/put warrants should satisfy the parity relations. However, due to the lack of short sales mechanism in domestic warrant market and stock market, the empirical results indicate that domestic warrant market can＇ t meet the option parity relations.

大功率柴油机试车台低温水系统的设计与优化

针对目前陆用柴油机低温水系统水质较差,温差较大,不能满足核电机两级空冷器验收要求的技术缺陷,开发新型"内部切换式"低温水系统。采用控制系统对低温水的冷却模式进行实时切换,满足现阶段台位"一台多机"的试GSCU车要求,同时对新系统进行自动加药及调温控制,精确控制系统阻垢缓蚀剂的用量,优化水质,节省水量,满足各型柴油机空冷器进水的不同要求。