Real time remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear Wiener based degradation processes with measurement errors

Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.

The Life Predictions in Whole Process Realized with Different Variables and Conventional Materials Constants for Elastic-Plastic Materials Behaviors under Unsymmetrical Cycle Loading

Author researches a lot of the mathematical models and the related conventional material constants in the traditional and the modem mechanics; to adopt two types of variables a and D, for the fatigue-damage-fracture behaviors to elastic-plastic steels contained flaws, to put forward several calculation models, which are the driving force and the life prediction expressions at each stage and in whole process; for the key parameters .A1 and ,A2 in two stages, there are functional relation with other conventional material constants σF,m1 and M2,λ2, they are defined as the new calculable comprehensive material constants, and indicate their physical and geometrical meanings. In addition, for conversion methods between two types of variables, relevant calculating example is provided. Thereby, make a linking between the fracture mechanics and the damage mechanics, communicating their relationships. This works for saving man powers and funds on fatigue-damage-fracture testing that will be having practical significance.

Life cycle inventory analysis of CO_2 and SO_2 emission of imperial smelting process for Pb-Zn smelter

Based on the principle of life cycle assessment, CO2 and SO2 emission of Imperial Smelting Process in a certain zinc-lead smelter was analyzed by life cycle inventory method. According to the system expansion and substitution method, the environmental impacts of co-products were allocated among the main products of zinc, lead and sulfuric acid. The related impacts were assessed by use of Global Warming Potential （GWP） and Acidification Potential （ACP）. The results show that the GWP index from 1998 to 2000 is 11.53, 11.65, 10.93 tCO2-eq/tZn respectively, the ACP index decreases from 14.88 kgSO2-eq/tZn in 1998 to 10.99 kgSO2-eq/tZn in 2000. Power and electricity generation, followed by smelting and zinc distillation, are mainly responsible for GWP. Sintering individually affects ACP. Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of the ISP may come from energy conservation measures rather than from technological developments. And recycling more secondary Pb and Zn materials effectively treated by ISP, and reducing the amount of primary metal are the main ways to put SO2 emission under control.

A Statistical Analysis of Intensities Estimation on the Modeling of Non-Life Insurance Claim Counting Process

This study presents an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts relating to a specified time. The objective of this study is to estimate the parameters in non-life insurance claim counting process, including the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity. We use the estimating function, the zero mean martingale (ZMM) as a procedure of parameter estimation in the insurance claim counting process. Then, Λ(t) , the compensator of is proposed for the number of claims in the time interval . We present situations through a simulation study of both processes on the time interval . Some examples of the situations in the simulation study are depicted by a sample path relating to its compensator Λ(t). In addition, an example of the claim counting process illustrates the result of the compensator estimate misspecification.

System Safety Management of Whole Life Cycle of Chemical Process Unit

Guaranteeing the safety performance of chemical process units is the premise for the safety production of chemical enterprises.Only to have the system safety management of the whole life cycle of the process units can operate the process systems under the state of controllable risk.

Feature Based Machining Process Planning Modeling and Integration for Life Cycle Engineering

Machining process data is the core of computer aided process planning application systems.It is also provides essen- tial content for product life cycle engineering.The character of CAPP that supports product LCE and virtual manufacturing is an- alyzed.The structure and content of machining process data concerning green manufacturing is also examined.A logic model of Machining Process Data has been built based on an object oriented approach,using UML technology and a physical model of machin- ing process data that utilizes XML technology.To realize the integration of design and process,an approach based on graph-based volume decomposition was apposed.Instead,to solve the problem of generation in the machining process,case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning have been applied synthetically.Finally,the integration framework and interface that deal with the CAPP integration with CAD,CAM,PDM,and ERP are discussed.

基于加速退化试验的漏电信号调理电路性能退化及可靠性研究

在电子电路服役过程中,元器件退化会引起电路输出特性变化,降低电子电路的可靠性。漏电信号调理电路作为一种电子电路,其可靠性直接决定了漏电断路器的可靠性。以漏电信号调理电路为研究对象,首先基于灵敏度分析方法确定影响电路性能退化的关键元器件,并对漏电信号调理电路进行了以温度为加速应力、动作电流值为退化特征量的恒定应力加速退化试验;其次根据不同温度应力下的试验数据建立基于Wiener过程的漏电信号调理电路性能退化模型,并利用极大似然估计法求取退化模型的未知参数,进而得出寿命预测的概率密度函数和可靠度函数;最后利用阿伦尼斯(Arrhenius)方程外推出正常应力下漏电信号调理电路的预测寿命。相关结论可为不同电子电路的寿命预测及可靠度分析提供支撑。

INVESTIGATIONS ON LASER SHOCK-PROCESSING (LSP) TO IMPROVE FATIGUE LIFE OF SMALL HOLE IN AIRCRAFT STRUCTURES

Laser shock-processing (LSP) is of particular advantage for improving fa-tigue behavior of small holes and blind holes. Because there are not good accessibility andpassage, these holes cannot be treated by shot peening or cold extrusion. The fatigue livesof aircraft aluminum alloy 2024-T62 are increased greatly by means of optimization oflaser shocking parameters. With 95 % confidence, the mean fatigue life of LSP specimensis 4. 35~7, 75 times larger than that of the un-shocked ones.

基于溃决机理的堰塞湖溃决快速风险评估方法研究

堰塞湖发生后极易形成溃决灾害链,亟需构建基于有限数据包的溃决快速定量风险评估方法。通过快速获取堰塞湖影响区域的三维地理信息,构建溃决-致灾的快速定量评估模型。基于堰塞湖坝体颗粒级配组成,实现精细化、简单化的稳定性快速评价;基于冲蚀特性和崩塌过程溃决机理,实现溃口流量变化过程分析与洪水演进过程模拟(1 h内);基于极限学习机网络模型建立风险人口与生命损失的函数,实现了生命损失评估预警,明晰了溃决-致灾的灾害链效应。将其应用于唐家山堰塞湖实例发现:研究方法能够较好地预警溃决灾害链;开挖引流槽可降低堰塞湖的溃口峰值流量、最大流速、溃口宽度和溃决库容,但无法防止溃决发生;若不开挖引流槽,溃决库容将达到3.14×10^(8) m^(3),溃口峰值流量达到9343.35 m^(3)/s,溃口顶宽增大到151.6 m,开挖引流槽可使溃口峰值流量减少12.6%,溃决库容减少36.5%,降低了堰塞湖的溃决风险;当提前预警时间超过2 h后,及时疏散下游淹没范围内的居民可使生命损失率降低为0。研究方法可实现堰塞湖应急处置时的快速定量风险评估,并为其应急处置决策提供技术支撑。

轴向荷载作用下小规格拉铆钉和普通螺栓疲劳性能对比研究

拉铆钉因其良好的防松动、抗疲劳和防腐性能以及较强的环境适应性等特点而被广泛应用于航空航天、轨道交通、桥梁建筑等领域。为解决光伏支架中螺栓连接易发生疲劳的问题,现研究一种国产新型拉铆钉的轴向疲劳性能,用以代替普通螺栓连接进而提高光伏支架的疲劳寿命。对LMY8和LMY10小规格拉铆钉及同规格的普通螺栓进行了轴向荷载作用下的静力试验和疲劳试验,并利用ABAQUS软件进行了拉铆钉铆接过程的模拟,利用FE-Safe软件对拉铆钉疲劳寿命进行了模拟。研究结果表明:在同样条件下,铆钉的疲劳性能优于普通螺栓的疲劳性能;拉铆钉在轴向荷载作用下的疲劳断口位于套环和锁紧环槽啮合的第一圈螺纹处,此处应力集中是拉铆钉发生疲劳失效的主要原因;拉铆钉的疲劳寿命会随着最小荷载的增大而提高,随最大荷载的增大而降低;由疲劳云图可知,拉铆钉在承受轴向循环荷载作用时,铆钉头部下方R角过渡处也会产生较大的应力,此区域也是易发生疲劳失效的部位。

A Bayesian Inference of Non-Life Insurance Based on Claim Counting Process with Periodic Claim Intensity

The aim of this study is to propose an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts related to the insurance claim counting process, including the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity and a beta-shaped intensity. The estimating function, such as the zero mean martingale (ZMM), is used as a procedure for parameter estimation of the insurance claim counting process, and the parameters of model claim intensity are estimated by the Bayesian method. Then,Λ(t), the compensator of N(t) is proposed for the number of claims in a time interval (0,t]. Given the process over the time interval (0,t]., the situations are presented through a simulation study and some examples of these situations are also depicted by a sample path relating N(t) to its compensatorΛ(t).

氯氧镁水泥混凝土中涂层钢筋的锈蚀劣化模型研究

为了推进钢筋氯氧镁水泥混凝土(magnesium oxychloride cement reinforced concrete,MOCRC)在西部地区的深度应用,设计模拟西部地区盐渍土环境、气候环境的室内加速破坏试验,研究涂层在多因素破坏试验环境下对钢筋的保护效果。利用电化学工作站测试试件的极化曲线和腐蚀电流密度,选用腐蚀电流密度作为Wiener随机退化过程的退化指标,建立随机退化过程的可靠度函数预测模型。结果表明:涂层在多因素试验环境下对钢筋的保护效果弱于纯浸泡试验环境下对钢筋的保护效果;通过可靠度函数寿命预测模型能够确定,MOCRC在不同浓度2%、4%、6%、8%氯化钠盐溶液室内多因素加速破坏试验环境下达到中等腐蚀破坏的时间分别为4000、3500、1400、400d。

基于两阶段随机维纳过程的机车车轮剩余寿命预测

为探究机车车轮退化过程中呈现的两阶段特征问题,提出一种基于两阶段维纳过程的车轮剩余寿命预测方法。利用两阶段维纳过程模型建立车轮轮缘退化模型,通过随机化漂移系数表征车轮退化过程中存在的个体差异;利用期望最大化(expectation maximum,EM)算法及贝叶斯理论实现了退化模型参数的离线估计与在线更新;通过Schwarz信息准则(Schwarz information criterion,SIC)判断并找到车轮退化过程中存在的变点;最后通过某机车车轮实测轮缘退化数据进行了实例验证。结果表明:与单阶段退化模型相比,考虑存在变点的两阶段退化模型更符合现场实际且在车轮80%寿命分位点处预测精度提升了9.42%。剩余寿命预测结果可以为车轮镟修周期的优化提供一定的理论依据。

食用菌预制菜的工艺配方研究及保质期预测

为丰富食用菌预制菜产品种类并解决预制菜储藏和运输的问题,通过运用高温反压式杀菌技术和加速破坏性试验(accelerated shelf-life testing,ASLT),开发出了一种复配型食用菌预制菜配方,并预测了其常温储藏保质期。采用3种食用菌为主要原料制作食用菌配方预制菜,加入猪五花肉、胡萝卜等配料,通过单因素和正交试验优化了其配方组成,获得了感官接受度较高的配方。配方组成为杏鲍菇200 g、香菇150 g、黑木耳50 g、猪五花肉70 g、胡萝卜30 g、香辣酱15 g、食盐1.2 g、蚝油1 g。该配方产品通过真空包装、高温反压式杀菌(121℃,20 min)和加速破坏性试验,预测在20℃下的保质期为195.4 d,满足常温储藏要求。通过对食用菌预制菜生产工艺的研究,证明了常温储藏食用菌预制菜的可行性。

基于脉冲涡流监测与Wiener过程的再制造工作辊实时剩余寿命预测方法

再制造工作辊在热轧工作过程中熔覆层易发生复杂的退化行为,而其性能退化会影响轧制产品的质量。为实时监测轧辊退化情况并预测其剩余寿命,构建一套在线脉冲涡流监测方法和系统,采用变分模态分解-希尔伯特变换(VMD-Hilbert)方法提取0~5000 Hz频率边际谱能量和的增量作为轧辊退化特征。基于此,构造考虑个体差异的状态退化空间模型,结合最大期望(EM)算法和Kalman平滑滤波算法联合对模型中未知参数进行自适应参数估计,并利用层次分析法融合监测的历史数据与实时数据,以实现对再制造工作辊实时剩余寿命预测。实验结果表明,所提方法能够准确预测再制造工作辊剩余寿命,具有一定的应用前景。

基于AHP-模糊评价分析法的社区老年人售药机设计研究

为了提升社区生活环境中老年人用户售药机的使用体验,以及解决老年人在自主购药中的问题,在注重城市社区生活环境背景的同时,更加科学合理地对售药机设计方案进行创新。聚焦传统售药机的使用需求和使用习惯,以及现有老年人售药机存在的问题,运用AHP层次分析法将相对应的设计因素进行归纳总结,从操作、造型、人机和老年人需求4个方面构建社区老年人售药机的多层级分析模型,并归纳计算影响因素评价指标的权重;最后通过模糊综合评价分析法对设计方案进行评价,以判断设计方案是否具有可行性。将AHP与模糊评价分析法结合,使主观的设计需求转为客观准确的分析,并且通过模糊评价分析法验证结果的合理性,为老年人售药机提供有效客观的设计方法。通过对社区老年人售药机的分析和设计,提出了AHP-模糊评价分析法的集成模型应用于老年人售药机设计的可行性。

压缩空气储能盐穴储气库技术及其智能建造工艺技术研究

当前,盐穴型储气库建造技术已较为成熟,并朝着智能化方向发展。根据盐穴储气库技术现状,对盐穴储气库当前建造技术进行分析;从全生命周期管理角度,将盐穴储气库智能建造划分为智能选址、智能设计、智能施工、智能运维4个阶段,并对每个阶段涉及的关键技术进行研究;提出盐穴储气库智能建造工艺技术框架及其具体内容;最后,从系统、技术、理论、模型4个方面,提出并总结盐穴储气库智能建造未来研究重点。相关技术在应城300 MW级压缩空气储能示范工程上得到有效应用。

新型高强度钛合金切削刀具技术研究

针对TB18航空结构件在实际加工过程中加工效率低、刀具寿命短等问题,开展TB18材料与通用钛合金材料的切削过程对比试验,分析影响刀具切削性能的关键因素,并结合具体的加工需求,通过典型刀具选型改进、新型刀具研制和切削参数优化,提高TB18材料加工效率,延长刀具使用寿命。

不同加工方式的三文鱼货架期预测模型建立与应用

为建立简单实用的三文鱼货架期模型,以冰鲜三文鱼、冷冻三文鱼、烟熏三文鱼和炙烤三文鱼为研究对象,分析了其在0、4、10℃3种贮藏温度条件下的菌落总数、pH、挥发性盐基氮(total volatile basic nitrogen, TVB-N)含量、感官评价和组胺含量的变化情况,并采用一级动力学模型和Arrhenius方程模拟产品的货架期,建立了预测模型。结果表明,TVB-N含量、菌落总数和组胺含量在0~10℃的品质变化规律可以为建立货架期预测模型提供直接参考,以之为基础建立的货架期预测模型准确度较高,对监测、改善三文鱼在生产流通环节易腐败变质的问题具有良好的应用价值。

典型生物质发酵制取燃料乙醇环境影响分析

结合生命周期评价方法与层次分析方法对杨木、玉米秸秆、甘蔗渣3种典型纤维素生物质的发酵制取燃料乙醇工艺进行环境影响评价。针对酸化、富营养化、全球变暖、化石能源消耗、光化学污染、人体毒性6种环境类型进行分析对比,并选取3个不同视角分析生物质发酵工艺所带来的环境影响。结果表明:农业阶段和生产阶段所产生的温室效应在全生命周期过程中占比最高;全球性视角下,全球变暖影响占比较高;区域性和局地性视角下,工艺的酸化影响最严重。