Theory and Application of Loss of Life Risk Analysis for Dam Break

The loss of life risk evaluation model for dam break is built in this paper.By using an improved Monte Carlo method,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated,and the Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to generate random numbers.The Graham method is used to calculate the loss of life resulting from dam failure.With Dongwushi reservoir located at Hebei Province taken as an example,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated as 4.77×10-6.Los...

Relationship between Selected Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Diseases and the Quality of Life

The ageing population is more predisposed to chronic diseases and functional disabilities with an increased level of dependence. The delivery of adequate health care services to the ageing population requires enquires into their quality of life. This cross-sectional study therefore investigated the relationship between some selected risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and the quality of life of aging adults. Using a convenient sampling technique, one hundred and forty six (146) adults of ages 50 years and above from varying locations within the Metropolis of Enugu State, Nigeria were recruited. The parameters obtained were participants’ blood pressure, height, body weight, waist circumference and blood sugar level. Health-related quality of life was assessed using the WHO-QOL BREF and physical activity level was assessed with the IPAQ. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics of frequency and percentage while the statistical measures of relationship (Pearson’s moment correlation and spearman rho correlation) were used to calculate the relationship between obtained data. The result revealed a positive relationship between waist circumference (obesity indicator) and the environment domain of quality of life measure (r = 0.227, p = 0.006). Surprisingly, no relationship was found between obesity indicators (waist circumference and BMI) and physical/psychological health status. The result also found a positive relationship between physical activity levels and quality of life;a weak negative relationship between casual blood sugar levels and the social relationship domains of quality of life and a weak negative relationship was also observed between age and physical activity and psychological health. Therefore, reduced physical activity level influences a poor quality of life. We recommend physical activity participation among the older population, as well as detailed similar studies for higher degree of certainty.

APPLICATION OF THE UNIFIED STATISTICAL MATERIAL DATABASE FOR DESIGN AND LIFE/RISK ASSESSMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURE COMPONENTS

Statistical manipulation of material data was conducted for probabilistic life assessment or risk-based design and maintenance for high temperature components of power plants. To obtain the statistical distribution of material properties, dominant parameters affecting material properties are introduced into normalization of statistical variables. Those parameters are hardness, chemical composition, characteristic micro structural features and so on. Creep and fatigue properties are expressed by normalized parameters and the unified statistical distributions are obtained. These probability distribution functions show good coincidence statistically with the field database of steam turbine components. It was concluded that the unified statistical baseline approach is useful for the risk management of components in power plants.

Stochastic Modelling of Vulnerability Life Cycle and Security Risk Evaluation

The objective of the present study is to propose a risk evaluation statistical model for a given vulnerability by examining the Vulnerability Life Cycle and the CVSS score. Having a better understanding of the behavior of vulnerability with respect to time will give us a great advantage. Such understanding will help us to avoid exploitations and introduce patches for a particular vulnerability before the attacker takes the advantage. Utilizing the proposed model one can identify the risk factor of a specific vulnerability being exploited as a function of time. Measuring of the risk factor of a given vulnerability will also help to improve the security level of software and to make appropriate decisions to patch the vulnerability before an exploitation takes place.

Oncological results, functional outcomes and health-related quality-of-life in men who received a radical prostatectomy or external beam radiation therapy for localized prostate cancer： a study on long-term patient outcome with risk stratification

Health-related quality-of-life （HRQOL） after a radical prostatectomy （RP） or extemal beam radiation therapy （EBRT） has not been studied in conjunction with oncological outcomes in relation to disease risk stratification. Moreover, the long-term outcomes of these treatment approaches have not been studied. We retrospectively analyzed oncological outcomes between consecutive patients receiving RP （n = 86） and EBRT （n = 76） for localized prostate cancer. HRQOL and functional outcomes could be assessed in 62 RP （79%） and 54 EBRT （79%） patients over a 3-year follow-up period （median： 41 months） using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 （SF-36） and the University of Califomia Los Angeles Prostate Cancer Index （UCLA PCI）. The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival did not differ between the RP and EBRT groups for low-risk （74.6% vs. 75.0%, P = 0.931） and intermediate-risk （61.3% vs. 71.1%, P = 0.691） patients. For high-risk patients, progression-free survival was lower in the RP group （45.1%） than in the EBRT group （79.7%） （P = 0.002）. The general HRQOL was comparable between the two groups. Regarding functional outcomes, the RP group reported lower scores on urinary function and less urinary bother and sexual bother than the EBRT group （P 〈 0.001, P 〈 0.05 and P 〈 0.001, respectively）. With risk stratification, the low- and intermediate-risk patients in the RP group reported poorer urinary function than patients in the EBRT group （P 〈 0.001 for each）. The sexual function of the high-risk patients in the EBRT group was better than that of the same risk RP patients （P 〈 0.001）. Biochemical recurrence was not associated with the UCLA PCI score in either group. In conclusion, low- to intermediate-risk patients treated with an RP may report relatively decreased urinary function during long-term follow-up. The patient＇s HRQOL after treatment did not depend on biochemical recurrence.

Life Style and Risk Behavior of Street Children in Bangladesh: A Health Perspective

Background: Street children concern to millions of deprived boys and girls who have adopted the street as their residence. They grow up where tranquility and physical and emotional stability are frequently threatened. The purpose is to have an empathetic look into the lives of street children for identifying their health-related needs. Method: A cross sectional descriptive type of study was conducted among 125 street children between the ages 8 to 14 years who were available at different intercept points of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. The information was collected through face-to-face interview using a structured questionnaire. An attempt was made to relate their lifestyle, risk behavior and health impact upon the socio demographic characteristics. Result: According to the statement of street children, poverty (41%) is the main reason behind enforcing the children to stay and work on the street. They pass their leisure by playing games, roaming around by watching video/cinema but on the other side of the coin, they are frequently abused (80.8%) either physically or sexually. Regarding health, about 87.2% of street children were suffering from different type of diseases as accidental injury, skin infection, hepatitis, sexually transmitted diseases and warm infestation. Conclusion: A careful examination of the lives of these children will provide a clearer understanding of their disadvantageous life. A better diagnosis of the contributing factors will help to minimize the extent of the problems and also to develop innovative approaches and ensure a healthy lifestyle, protection and rehabilitation for those children.

Identification of life habits factors as risk for gastritis and colitis occurrence in a mestizo population of Chabeklumil, Chiapas, México

Aim: Gastric diseases are a recent trend in morbidity in México. We aimed to identify most frequent life habits factors as risk for gastritis and colitis occurrence, in a Mexican mestizo population in Chabeklumil, Chiapas. Population: This study was observational, descriptive, transversal and prospective;346 questionnaires were applied to individuals of both genders from 11 years of age, with low income and socio-economic status, after they signed the informed consent. An individual file was created by the nurses in Chabeklumil. The predominant gender in the population was female (56.1%), with a distribution of 166 among adulthood (19 - 59 years of age);among males (43.9%), 133 included adults. Results: We identified the following environmental risk factors to develop gastritis and colitis: long periods of daily fasting > consumption of irritant food and drink > stress, in females;in contrast, males reported alcohol and tobacco consumption > irritant food and drink > long periods of daily fasting > stress. We found statistical differences (P < 0.05) in risk factors between females and males, in drugs and alcohol consumption, fasting, and stress, but not in consumption of irritant foods, nor in colitis and gastritis prevalence. Conclusions: Females are most affected by life habits risk factors for gastritis/colitis, which occurs mainly due to lifestyle and “macho” culture, since women are precluded of a better living standard, they work hard in the field, and start early in the day without consuming a meal, which they eat late in the day once arriving home. People in Chabeklumil eat/drink a lot of irritant food like hot pepper and coffee, which damage the gastrointestinal system leading to gastritis and colitis. Furthermore, men started to consume drugs at early ages, a condition also involved in developing gastritis.

Refining a Church-Based Lifestyle Intervention Targeting African-American Adults at Risk for Cardiometabolic Diseases: A Pilot Study

Objective: The pilot study was intended to test the feasibility of a multiple-component lifestyle intervention targeting African American adults in a weight control and cardiometabolic risk reduction program on diet, activity, and stress, using community-engagement principles. Methods: Applying mixed qualitative and quantitative measures, the intervention had a two-part sequential study design consisting of 12 weekly small group sessions that provided individual and group counseling in nutrition, exercise, and mindfulness, while incorporating focus group and interactive techniques to learn about barriers and acceptable practices for this population. The program was implemented at an African-American church in Nashville, Tennessee. Results: Thirty-four participants (aged 56.1 ± 11 years, body mass index (BMI) 36.7 ± 6.6 kg/m2) completed the intervention. Lifestyle changes after the 12 weekly sessions showed some positive trends including reduced sodium intake (from 2725.3 ± 326.5 to 2132 ± 330, mg/day, P = 0.008), increased walking steps (from 4392.1 ± 497.2 to 4895.3 ± 497.9, steps/day, not significant), and slightly decreased Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) scores (from 13.7 ± 1.4 to 12.4 ± 1.5, not significant). Body fat % among male participants decreased significantly (from 33.8 ± 2.6 to 28 ± 2.6, %, P = 0.043). Among cardiometabolic risk biomarkers, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) decreased significantly (from 6.6 ± 0.2 to 6.1 ± 0.2, %, P β = 2.4, P = 0.006). Twenty-one participants took part in focus groups during the program to identify barriers to healthy lifestyle changes. Primary barriers reported were price, time for preparing healthy meals, unfamiliarity with mindfulness activities, their health condition, and daily schedule available for physical activities. Conclusions: This church-based pilot intervention was proven feasible by showing modest progress in reducing adiposity and decreasing HbA1c levels. The focus group and interactive methods facilitated program direction. Future full-scale studies are warranted to identify key strategies that provide more personalized approaches and supportive environments to sustain a healthy lifestyle among these at risk minorities with limited resources.

Risk Identification for the Ecological Environment of Flood Disasters Based on the Life Cycle

Aiming at the complexity of ecological environment risk of flood disaster, the life cycle of flood disaster is defined based on the relevant literatures, which is divided into incubation period, development period, outbreak period, recession period and extinction period. The characteristics of each period are analyzed. Further, the main risks for ecological environment faced at each stage under the life cycle of flood disaster are studied systematically to form the systematic ecological environment risk system for flood disaster.

基于溃决机理的堰塞湖溃决快速风险评估方法研究

堰塞湖发生后极易形成溃决灾害链,亟需构建基于有限数据包的溃决快速定量风险评估方法。通过快速获取堰塞湖影响区域的三维地理信息,构建溃决-致灾的快速定量评估模型。基于堰塞湖坝体颗粒级配组成,实现精细化、简单化的稳定性快速评价;基于冲蚀特性和崩塌过程溃决机理,实现溃口流量变化过程分析与洪水演进过程模拟(1 h内);基于极限学习机网络模型建立风险人口与生命损失的函数,实现了生命损失评估预警,明晰了溃决-致灾的灾害链效应。将其应用于唐家山堰塞湖实例发现:研究方法能够较好地预警溃决灾害链;开挖引流槽可降低堰塞湖的溃口峰值流量、最大流速、溃口宽度和溃决库容,但无法防止溃决发生;若不开挖引流槽,溃决库容将达到3.14×10^(8) m^(3),溃口峰值流量达到9343.35 m^(3)/s,溃口顶宽增大到151.6 m,开挖引流槽可使溃口峰值流量减少12.6%,溃决库容减少36.5%,降低了堰塞湖的溃决风险;当提前预警时间超过2 h后,及时疏散下游淹没范围内的居民可使生命损失率降低为0。研究方法可实现堰塞湖应急处置时的快速定量风险评估,并为其应急处置决策提供技术支撑。

数字化提升企业绿色创新质量的机制研究

选取中国A股上市公司的面板数据,运用多元回归分析模型,考察企业数字化对其绿色创新质量的影响,以及风险承担与市场竞争对二者之间关系的中介和调节机制。研究结果显示,企业数字化对其绿色创新质量具有提升作用,风险承担在企业数字化与绿色创新质量之间发挥部分中介作用,市场竞争对企业数字化与其绿色创新质量之间关系具有正向调节作用。进一步的分析结果显示:与民营企业相比,国有企业数字化对绿色创新质量的促进作用更大,且对中央企业的促进作用比地方国有企业大;与规模较小企业相比,规模较大企业数字化对绿色创新质量的促进作用更大;与处于衰退期的企业相比,处于成长期和成熟期的企业数字化对绿色创新质量的促进作用更大。研究结论能够为企业的数字化战略安排和政府的市场竞争环境培育提供有益的借鉴和启示。

上海市宝山区百岁老人生命质量现状调查分析

目的了解上海市宝山区百岁老人的营养风险及生命质量现状并探讨其影响因素。方法采用横断面调查的方法,2023年11月底在上海市宝山区的6条街道随机招募103名百岁老人作为研究对象,用自制问卷和营养风险筛查简表(NRS 2002)及健康调查简表(SF-36)对百岁老人的基本信息、养老、疾病、生活方式进行调查,分析不同基本情况下老人生命质量的差别,采用相关分析营养风险与生命质量之间的相关性。结果103名百岁老人SF-36总体评分为(52.86±16.33)分,躯体健康总评(PCS)为(45.48±35.67)分,精神健康总评(MCS)为(60.23±30.11)分。8个维度得分:生理功能(16.06±24.78)分,生理职能(37.86±46.02)分,躯体疼痛(71.68±22.09)分,一般健康状况(56.33±12.71)分,精力(53.30±16.35)分,社会功能(58.90±25.32)分,情感职能(59.54±48.42)分,精神健康(69.20±16.38)分。性别、居住方式、是否服用保健品对百岁老人PCS及MCS的影响差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);是否有营养风险及是否有心血管疾病对百岁老人生命质量PCS及MCS的影响差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。相关分析结果显示:NRS 2002分值越高,百岁老人的生理职能、一般健康状况、精力、社会功能、情感职能、PCS和MCS的评分就越低(均P<0.05)。结论营养风险高及患有心血管疾病的百岁老人生命质量更低,需要根据百岁老人的疾病及营养状况,有针对性地提供营养支持,将有助于提高其生命质量。

数字技术促进精神生活共同富裕的机理、风险及其防范

精神生活共同富裕内在地蕴含人民精神生活富有、人民精神生活发展平衡两个层面的本质规定性。当前,数字技术的广泛应用已经渗透到人民精神生产、分配、交往、消费等实践环节,加速了精神生活富有、精神生活发展平衡理想精神图景的到来。从精神生活共同富裕的本质规定出发,结合人民精神生活实践的运行逻辑,探讨数字技术促进精神生活共同富裕的内在机理,可以发现,数字技术能够提高精神生产效率,助力满足精神生活的多维需要;能够优化精神文化资源配置方式,助力促进精神文化产品的全民享有;能够打造多维高效的交往矩阵,助力凝聚社会成员的价值共识;能够优化精神消费生态,助力推动精神消费的理性自觉。同时,数字技术促进精神生活共同富裕过程中面临数字垄断可能提高精神生产的成本、数字壁垒可能扩大精神产品分配的不公正性、“信息茧房”“数字鸿沟”可能影响精神交往互动深度、数字依赖可能导致精神消费异化等风险。因此,防范数字技术促进精神生活共同富裕过程中可能产生的风险,需要提升数字文化产品和服务的供给能力,提高人们的数字素养和能力,强化社会主义核心价值观对数字技术和精神生活的引领,健全数字技术促进精神生活共同富裕的制度机制。

肝癌术后重症老年患者术后3个月随访状态调查

目的探讨肝癌术后重症老年患者近期生存质量并分析其影响因素。方法回顾性分析2020年2月至2022年3月新疆医科大学附属肿瘤医院收治的152例肝癌术后入住重症监护室的重症老年患者的临床资料。术前及术后3个月使用老年营养风险指数(GNRI)评估患者营养风险,术后3个月使用肝癌患者生命质量测定量表(QOL-LCV2.0)评估患者近期生存质量。根据术后3个月患者生存质量测定结果将患者分为生存质量良好组(78例)与生存质量不良组(74例)。采用SPSS 24.0统计软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型,分别采用χ2检验或t检验进行组间比较。采用logistic回归分析评估肝癌术后重症老年患者近期生存质量不良的影响因素。结果肝癌术后重症老年患者术后3个月QOL-LCV2.0总得分为(124.89±9.22)分。Logistic回归分析显示,年龄≥70岁(OR=1.929,95%CI 1.011~4.290;P<0.05)、术前GNRI≤98(OR=3.593,95%CI 2.252~5.734;P<0.05)及术后并发症(OR=2.550,95%CI 1.411~4.606;P<0.05)均为肝癌术后重症老年患者近期生存质量不良的危险因素。结论肝癌术后重症老年患者近期生存质量值得关注,年龄、营养风险及术后并发症是影响患者近期生存质量的重要因素。

论长寿内卷化

进入长寿时代后,农村老年人在其高龄阶段的生命历程中,会遭遇各种负性生活事件。伴随其机体衰退,他们会不可避免地坠入巨大的生活风险之中。结合中国传统的老龄观,通过对“内卷化”这一概念的辨析和创造性转化,可以构建“长寿内卷化”的概念,以理解当前农村高龄老年人的生活风险状态。当高龄老年人的生命历程步入内卷点之后,其寿命虽然仍然在延长,但由于各种负性生命事件的发生和影响,生命质量却开始下滑,与理想状态相反的是,这段生命历程将持续进入病寿、苦寿、辱寿等单一存在或同时并存的生活风险状态;当这一曲线下滑至接近生命质量轴的交叉点时,它意味着高龄老年人生命主动或被动的终结。支撑从长寿内卷化到生活风险发生的机制是,城镇化进程带来的社会压力通过环状结构的新家庭结构形式向高龄老年人转移。秉持积极老龄观,加强政策干预,实现长寿去内卷化,是长寿时代所必需面对的重要议题。作为一个分析性概念的“长寿内卷化”,不仅对理解当前农村高龄老年人的生活风险具有理论意义和政策意义,将来也同样适用于分析城市高龄老年人的生活风险状况。

多模式预康复在乳腺癌术后病人化疗间歇期中的应用效果

目的:探讨多模式预康复在乳腺癌术后病人化疗间歇期的应用效果。方法:选取2022年1月—12月在某三级甲等医院乳腺外科手术后需要化疗的120例乳腺癌病人,分为观察组和对照组各60例。对照组实行常规护理,观察组实行多模式预康复,比较两组病人的焦虑、抑郁、营养风险及生活质量。结果:最终观察组60例、对照组59例完成本研究。第1次化疗时两组病人一般资料、焦虑抑郁得分、病人营养风险筛查及生活质量得分比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。第6次化疗时观察组病人焦虑及抑郁得分、营养风险筛查显著低于对照组,生活质量评分高于对照组(均P<0.05)。结论:多模式预康复可降低乳腺癌术后化疗间歇期病人的焦虑、抑郁水平,降低营养不良的发生率,提高病人的生活质量。

社会性别观念对育龄群体离婚风险的影响

在中国,婚姻是生育的前提,在目前国内人口负增长趋势明显的严峻形势下,婚姻稳定性一直受到学界关注。本研究使用2012年至2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,通过因子分析构建社会性别观念指数,探究了社会性别观念对于育龄群体离婚风险的影响,并在此基础上讨论了不同性别、已育和未育群体间影响的差异,且进一步分析了生活幸福感在这一过程中的中介效应。结果显示,传统的社会性别观念会降低离婚风险,这一影响在女性和已育群体中更为凸显;另外,传统的社会性别观念除了直接降低离婚风险外,还会降低育龄群体的生活幸福感,从而增加他们做出离婚选择的可能。

鸽粪农业利用潜力及其重金属风险评价

为了解鸽粪组分及其农业利用过程中重金属的潜在生态风险,本研究采集了广东省肉鸽养殖基地的鸽粪样品,检测分析了鸽粪中Cu、Zn、Cd、Cr、Ni、Pb、Hg、As 8种重金属含量以及全氮、全磷、全钾含量,采用单因子污染指数法与综合污染指数法评价了鸽粪重金属污染程度,同时,根据水稻所需全氮含量分析鸽粪安全农用年限,并通过Hakanson潜在生态污染评价法进行验算。结果表明:对比德国腐熟肥料标准,鸽粪中Cu、Zn含量超标,样品超标率分别为18.18%和36.36%,总超标率为45.45%。单因子污染指数表明鸽粪重金属Zn、Cu、Ni分别有36.36%、18.18%、18.18%的样品处于污染水平,其余重金属含量均在《有机肥料》(NY/T525-2021)的限量范围内。内梅罗综合污染指数表明,处于警示及以上污染水平的点位主要受Cu、Zn污染。在不考虑重金属流失情况下,广东省水稻种植中连续施用鸽粪10 a无重金属污染风险,而在水田旱作系统中,以作物所需全磷量为施肥指标的情况下,鸽粪安全农用年限可达50 a。研究表明,鸽粪农用过程中会使重金属在农田土壤中累积,引起重金属污染,应加强鸽粪无害化处理及安全利用等技术研究。

1990-2019年中国心血管疾病流行现状、疾病负担及发病预测分析

背景心血管疾病是严重危害人类健康的重大慢病,且仍是我国乃至全球一个亟待解决的公共卫生问题。目的探讨1990—2019年中国心血管疾病流行特征和疾病负担情况,预测2020—2050年中国心血管疾病发病情况,为心血管疾病相关防治策略的制订提供参考。方法检索2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019)数据库,提取1990—2019年中国及全球心血管疾病负担及危险因素的相关数据并进行分析,使用基于GBD 2019数据库可公开的发病率、患病率、死亡率以及对应的年龄标准化(简称标化)率来量化心血管疾病的疾病流行情况,使用伤残损失寿命年(YLD)、早死损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)量化疾病负担情况,构建ARIMA模型预测2020—2050年中国心血管疾病的发病情况。结果1990—2019年中国心血管疾病的发病率、患病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,其中发病率、患病率及死亡率分别增长了93.75%、99.75%、57.39%。女性的标化发病率、标化患病率均高于男性,标化死亡率低于男性(P<0.05)。从2019年数据上看,中国心血管疾病总体发病率随着年龄升高呈上升趋势,在95岁及以上年龄组达到最高值。男性和女性的发病率趋势与总体趋势相似,但略有差异。总体患病率随着年龄升高呈上升趋势,女性高于男性。在45岁以后心血管疾病的死亡率呈现上升趋势,男性的死亡率在各个年龄段均高于女性。1990—2019年男性YLL率、YLD率、DALY率增长了36.99%、102.42%、40.78%,女性增长了2.79%、107.13%、11.50%。从2019年数据来看,中国总人群心血管疾病的YLL率、YLD率、DALY率总体随着年龄的增加呈上升趋势,尚无拐点出现。男性YLL率、DALY率随人口老龄化进展逐渐升高并远高过女性,女性YLD率在55~59岁年龄组后逐渐升高并远高过男性。1990—2019年,全球心血管疾病的标化发病率、标化患病率及标化死亡率呈逐年下降趋势,而中国的标化发病率和标化患病率仍有所增加,标化死亡率虽有所降低,但仍高于全球范围。从全球整体水平上看,中国心血管疾病的标化YLL率、标化DALY率虽同全球一样呈下降趋势,但2000年以后中国心血管疾病的疾病负担高于全球整体水平,且标化YLD率逐年增加。与心血管疾病死亡相关的危险因素主要是吸烟、吸二手烟、饮酒、体力活动少、高空腹血糖、高收缩压、高BMI、高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇以及肾功能不全。从中国及全球相关数据来看,高收缩压(高血压)依然是造成心血管疾病死亡的首要危险因素,且死亡人数逐年增加。高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(高脂血症)是全球及近年来中国心血管疾病死亡的第二因素。2020—2050年中国心血管疾病标化发病率仍呈上升趋势,预计到2050年心血管疾病的标化发病率将达到663.618/10万。结论1990—2019年我国心血管疾病的发病率、患病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,因心血管疾病导致的疾病负担较重,在未来50年尚无拐点出现,疾病流行及负担情况均高于全球范围。预计到2050年心血管疾病的标化发病率将达到663.618/10万。

砌体结构地震风险控制决策方法研究

地震等自然灾害作用下生命安全风险的相关决策会对社会公共安全产生重大的影响,因此,工程结构应将风险限制在合理可接受水平,在经济投资、使用效益和生命安全保护方面达到综合最佳。为了解决“多安全才足够安全”这个问题,首先,根据我国2018年基本国情和经济水平确定生活质量指数(life quality index,LQI),并建立基于LQI的风险可接受准则;其次,对新建砌体结构和加固既有砌体结构进行可靠度分析,采用蒙特卡罗法计算地震作用下砌体结构的失效概率;最后,建立砌体结构的地震风险控制决策方法,并通过实例应用提出新建砌体结构的最优设计方案和加固既有砌体结构的最佳加固策略。结果表明:文中提出的方法对新建砌体结构可靠度指标的要求与规范要求基本吻合;地震作用下多层砌体结构的可接受失效概率为0.001~0.010。