Evaluating the performance of a WRF microphysics ensemble through comparisons with aircraft observations

observation data obtained in a mesoscale convective system are compared to Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model simulations using four microphysics schemes(Morrison,WSM6,P3,SBM)with different complexities.The main purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of the microphysics ensemble in terms of cloud microphysical properties.Results show that although the vertical distributions of liquid water content(LWC)and ice water content(IWC)simulated by the four members are quite different in the convective cloud region,they are relatively uniform in the stratiform cloud region.Overall,the results of the Morrison scheme are very similar to the ensemble average,and both of them are closer to the observations compared to the other schemes.Besides,the authors also note that all members still overpredict the LWC by a factor of 2–8 in some regions,resulting in large deviation between the observation and ensemble average.

CLOUD RADIATIVE AND MICROPHYSICAL EFFECTS ON THE RELATION BETWEEN SPATIAL MEAN RAIN RATE, RAIN INTENSITY AND FRACTIONAL RAINFALL COVERAGE

Cloud radiative and microphysical effects on the relation between spatial mean rain rate, rain intensity and fractional rainfall coverage are investigated in this study by conducting and analyzing a series of two-dimensional cloud resolving model sensitivity experiments of pre-summer torrential rainfall in June 2008. The analysis of time-mean data shows that the exclusion of radiative effects of liquid clouds reduces domain mean rain rate by decreasing convective rain rate mainly through the reduced convective-rainfall area associated with the strengthened hydrometeor gain in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds, whereas it increases domain mean rain rate by enhancing convective rain rate mainly via the intensified convective rain intensity associated with the enhanced net condensation in the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds. The removal of radiative effects of ice clouds decreases domain mean rain rate by reducing stratiform rain rate through the suppressed stratiform rain intensity related to the suppressed net condensation in the presence of radiative effects of liquid clouds, whereas it increases domain mean rain rate by strengthening convective rain rate mainly via the enhanced convective rain intensity in response to the enhanced net condensation in the absence of radiative effects of liquid clouds. The elimination of microphysical effects of ice clouds suppresses domain mean rain rate by reducing stratiform rain rate through the reduced stratiform-rainfall area associated with severely reduced hydrometeor loss.

Comparison of aircraft observations with ensemble forecast model results in terms of the microphysical characteristics of stratiform precipitation

The prediction of the particle number concentration and liquid/ice water content of cloud is significant for many aspects of atmospheric science.However,given the uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions and imperfections of microphysical schemes,the accurate prediction of these microphysical properties of cloud is still a big challenge.The ensemble approach may be a viable way to reduce forecast uncertainties.In this paper,a large-scale stratiform cloud precipitation process is studied by comparing results of a 10-member ensemble forecast model with aircraft observation data.By means of the ensemble average,the prediction of bulk parameters such as liquid water content and ice water content can be improved in comparison with the control member,but the particle number concentrations are still one to two orders of magnitude less than those from observations.Intercomparison of raindrop size spectra reveals a big distinction between observations and predictions for particles with a diameter less than 1000μm.