Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern...Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern parts of Jordan including, Ma’an, Karak and Aqaba. The available statistical data about the load of southern part of Jordan are supplied by electricity Distribution Company. Mathematical and statistical methods attempted to forecast future demand by determining trends of past results and use the trends to extrapolate the curve demand in the future.展开更多
In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access ...In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.展开更多
With the expansion of distributed generation systems and demand response programs, the need to fully utilize distribution system capacity has increased. In addition, the potential bidirectional flow of power on distri...With the expansion of distributed generation systems and demand response programs, the need to fully utilize distribution system capacity has increased. In addition, the potential bidirectional flow of power on distribution networks demands voltage visibility and control at all voltage levels. Distribution system state estimations, however, have traditionally been less prioritized due to the lack of enough measurement points while being the major role player in knowing the real-time system states of active distribution networks. The advent of smart meters at LV loads, on the other hand, is giving relief to this shortcoming. This study explores the potential of bottom up load flow analysis based on customer level Automatic Meter Reading (AMRs) to compute short time forecasts of demands and distribution network system states. A state estimation frame-work, which makes use of available AMR data, is proposed and discussed.展开更多
The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program co...The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program comprises a particular set of demand-side measures aimed at reducing the annual peak load.The paper also presents the program simulations for the case study of the Electricity Distribution Company of Belgrade(EDB).According to the methodology used,the first step is to determine the available controllable load of the distribution utility/area under consideration.The controllable load is presumed constant over the analyzed time horizon,and the smart grid(SG)infrastructure available.The saturation of positive effects during intense program application is also taken into account.Technical and economic input data are taken from the real projects.The conducted calculations indicate that demand-side programs can bring about the same results as the energy storage in the grids with a strong impact of distributed generation from variable renewable sources(V-RES).In conclusion,the proposed demand-side program is a good alternative to building new power facilities,which can postpone investment costs for a considerable period of time.展开更多
文摘Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern parts of Jordan including, Ma’an, Karak and Aqaba. The available statistical data about the load of southern part of Jordan are supplied by electricity Distribution Company. Mathematical and statistical methods attempted to forecast future demand by determining trends of past results and use the trends to extrapolate the curve demand in the future.
文摘In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.
文摘With the expansion of distributed generation systems and demand response programs, the need to fully utilize distribution system capacity has increased. In addition, the potential bidirectional flow of power on distribution networks demands voltage visibility and control at all voltage levels. Distribution system state estimations, however, have traditionally been less prioritized due to the lack of enough measurement points while being the major role player in knowing the real-time system states of active distribution networks. The advent of smart meters at LV loads, on the other hand, is giving relief to this shortcoming. This study explores the potential of bottom up load flow analysis based on customer level Automatic Meter Reading (AMRs) to compute short time forecasts of demands and distribution network system states. A state estimation frame-work, which makes use of available AMR data, is proposed and discussed.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia,being the part of the research project ‘‘Smart Energy Networks’’ (No.Ⅲ 42009/2011)
文摘The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program comprises a particular set of demand-side measures aimed at reducing the annual peak load.The paper also presents the program simulations for the case study of the Electricity Distribution Company of Belgrade(EDB).According to the methodology used,the first step is to determine the available controllable load of the distribution utility/area under consideration.The controllable load is presumed constant over the analyzed time horizon,and the smart grid(SG)infrastructure available.The saturation of positive effects during intense program application is also taken into account.Technical and economic input data are taken from the real projects.The conducted calculations indicate that demand-side programs can bring about the same results as the energy storage in the grids with a strong impact of distributed generation from variable renewable sources(V-RES).In conclusion,the proposed demand-side program is a good alternative to building new power facilities,which can postpone investment costs for a considerable period of time.
