Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.

Cumulative Capacity Credit Estimation for Renewable Energy Projects

This paper presents a novel method for accurately estimating the cumulative capacity credit(CCC)of renewable energy(RE)projects.Leveraging data from the main interconnected system(MIS)of Oman for 2028,where a substantial increase in RE generation is anticipated,the method is introduced alongside the traditional effective load carrying capability(ELCC)method.To ensure its robustness,we compare CCC results with ELCC calculations using two distinct standards of reliability criteria:loss of load hours(LOLH)at 24 hour/year and 2.4 hour/year.The method consistently gives accurate results,emphasizing its exceptional accuracy,efficiency,and simplicity.A notable feature of the method is its independence from loss of load probability(LOLP)calculations and the iterative procedures associated with analytic-based reliability methods.Instead,it relies solely on readily available data such as annual hourly load profiles and hourly generation data from integrated RE plants.This innovation is of particular significance to prospective independent power producers(IPPs)in the RE sector,offering them a valuable tool for estimating capacity credits without the need for sensitive generating unit forced outage rate data,often restricted by privacy concerns.