The tempo-spatial evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio before strong earthquakes in California of America and its predicting implications

In this paper, the tempo-spatial evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (namely LURR or Y value) before strong earthquakes with magnitude over 6 during 1976~1994 in California of America are studied in detail. The results show that there appear some high-Y regions cohering with the regional tectonic trend in a great area 3~4 years before strong earthquakes and these high-Y regions migrate from the periphery to the epicenter region at a speed of tens of kilometers per year. The load/unload response ratio (LURR) anomalies near the epicenter region characterizes a type of (ascend ? descend( and appear and increase steeply until one year or less before most earthquakes. (Positive( earthquakes form usually a concentration area; in and near which the main shock occurs. We have analyzed the different and same characters of earthquakes between California of American and the Chinese mainland. Basing on these results, we discuss the approach and method how to predict and estimate the three parameters (place, time and magnitude) of a strong earthquake in California of American by applying the characteristics of the LURR.

Physical meaning and prediction efficiency of the load/unload response ratio of rocks in strain-weakening phase before failure

Rock experiment results indicate that the load/unload response ratio (LURR) of rocks expressed via strain energy may have singular or negative value after the stress in the rock reaches its maximum before rock failure or when the rock goes into the strain-weakening phase. The universality of this phenomenon is discussed. Expressed via strain or strain energy and the travel time of P wave, the variation form of the reciprocal of LURR during the process of rock failure preparation is derived. The results show that after a sharp decrease the reciprocal of LURR reaches its minimum when the main fracture of the rock is about to appear. This feature can be taken as an indication that the rock main fracture is impending.

The Experimental Simulation of Rocks on Load/Unload Response Ratio for Earthquake Prediction

The load/unload experiments on rock failure under pressure have been carried out in Material Test System (MTS) in the Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics of Continuous Media (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and load/unload response ratio (LURR) values with strain as response (i.e. inverse elastic constant as response rate) have been obtained. The experimental results are in accordance with theoretical results and those in real earthquakes: LURR rises just before rock failure. So LURR can be used as the precursor of rock failure and earthquake prediction.

Experimental Research on the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

Implementing acoustic emission experiments with large rock samples, LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory was studied. The loading conditions in the experiments were designed to simulate the complicated loading process of underground rocks. The damages emerging inside the rock samples were recorded by the acoustic emission technique during the loading process. The experimental results were consistent with prediction by LURR theory. Integrating the changing processes of LURR value Y and the location process of acoustic emission events showed agreement between the variation of LURR value Y and the damage evolution inside the rocks. Furthermore, the high value of Y emerged before the complete breakdown of materials. Therefore, the damage evolution of rock specimen can be quantitatively analyzed with LURR theory, thus the failure of the rock materials and the earthquake occurrence may be predicted. The experimental results gave a further verification of LURR theory.

Investigation on the Load/Unload Response Ratio With Coda Q-1 as Response

The load/unload response ratio YQ with the geophysical parameter coda Q-1 of the crust as response is denned in this study.The variation in YQ-1 before and after the Northridge earthquake of January 17,1994(California)has been investigated by using the data of coda Q-1 with frequencies of 1.5,3.0,6.0,12.0,and 24.0 Hz in the Southern California from 1987 to 1994.It can be found that YQ-1 for coda waves with all frequencies,the frequency of 12.0 Hz excluded,ascended to a certain extent prior to the occurrence of the rnainshock and returned to normality after the main shock.

Application of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory to Predictions of Moderate Earthquakes (7.0>M≥6.0)

The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.

Variation of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Before the Main Shocks of the Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

In this paper, the theory of the load/unload response ratio is applied to the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquakes, and variation of the load/unload response ratio Y preceding the occurrence of main shocks of the reservoir-induced earthquakes in Xinfengjiang, Foziling, Danjiangkou, and Shenwo. The results show that the load/unload response ratio Y rises evidently prior to the main shocks.

Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio in the Study of Seismicity in the Region of Iran

The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.

The spatial temporal evolution characteristics of the load／unload response ratio（LURR） and its implications for predicting the three elements of earthquakes

The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.

The Random Distribution of the Loading and Unloading Response Ratio Under the Assumptions of Poisson Models

This paper discussed the random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio（LURR） of different definitions（Y1～Y5）using the assumptions that the earthquakes occurfollowing the Poisson process and their magnitudes obey the Gutenberg-Richter law.Theresults show that Y1～Y5 are quite stable or concentrated when the expected number of eventsin the calculation time window is relatively large（】40）;but when this occurrence ratebecomes very small,Y2～Y5 become quite variable or unstable.That is to say,a high value ofthe LURR can be produced not only from seismicity before a large earthquake,but also from arandom sequence of earthquakes that obeys a Poisson process when the expected number ofevents in the window is too small.To check the influence of randomness in the catalogue tothe LURR,the random distribution of the LURR under Poisson models has been calculated bysimulation.90%,95% and 99% confidence ranges of Y1 and Y3 are given in this paper,which is helpful to quantify the random

Short-term and imminent anomalies of earthquake of load and unload response ratio of the well level to earth tides

In this paper, through the nonlinear response of rock strain and stress, we have analized the physical mechanism of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides,the respouse of an aquifer of confined well to bulk strain tide and showed two methods of the calculation of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides. We took the example of the Yu 01 well, which is near the epicenter of Heze M S 5.9 earthquake, calculated the response rate and loading and unloading response ratio of two kinds of the earth tides of it. The response rate and response ratio before the earthquake had the variation of increase.

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic events.The events that satisfy the random distribution are also generated.With those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is discussed.The study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system F3.The comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also studied.It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is sufficient.The lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may contain.The influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed.

Local Anomalies of the Load-Unload Response of the Geomagnetic Field to Solar Wind and Earthquakes in Southwest China

Many earthquakes occurred during the period 1994 -1996 in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, Southwest China. Taking the process of the initial main phase recovery phase of the magnetic storm as the process of load-unload response of the geomagnetic field to the solar wind, we have estimated and analyzed the distribution in time and space of the load-unload response ratio P(z) of the storm time disturbance daily variation of the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field at ten stations in Southwest China. We found that the area with high ratio P(z) was just the area where moderately strong earthquakes would occur from 44 days to 15 months later. The relationship between the high ratio P(z) and weather disasters in both seismic and non-seismic areas is discussed briefly.

Evolution of mechanical parameters of Shuangjiangkou granite under different loading cycles and stress paths

Surrounding rocks at different locations are generally subjected to different stress paths during the process of deep hard rock excavation.In this study,to reveal the mechanical parameters of deep surrounding rock under different stress paths,a new cyclic loading and unloading test method for controlled true triaxial loading and unloading and principal stress direction interchange was proposed,and the evolution of mechanical parameters of Shuangjiangkou granite under different stress paths was studied,including the deformation modulus,elastic deformation increment ratios,fracture degree,cohesion and internal friction angle.Additionally,stress path coefficient was defined to characterize different stress paths,and the functional relationships among the stress path coefficient,rock fracture degree difference coefficient,cohesion and internal friction angle were obtained.The results show that during the true triaxial cyclic loading and unloading process,the deformation modulus and cohesion gradually decrease,while the internal friction angle gradually increases with increasing equivalent crack strain.The stress path coefficient is exponentially related to the rock fracture degree difference coefficient.As the stress path coefficient increases,the degrees of cohesion weakening and internal friction angle strengthening decrease linearly.During cyclic loading and unloading under true triaxial principal stress direction interchange,the direction of crack development changes,and the deformation modulus increases,while the cohesion and internal friction angle decrease slightly,indicating that the principal stress direction interchange has a strengthening effect on the surrounding rocks.Finally,the influences of the principal stress interchange direction on the stabilities of deep engineering excavation projects are discussed.

Feasibility study on buoyancy-weight ratios of a submerged floating tunnel prototype subjected to hydrodynamic loads

The research progress of a novel traffic solution,a submerged floating tunnel（SFT）,is reviewed in terms of a study approach and loading scenario.Among existing publications,the buoyancy-weight ratio（BWR） is usually predefined.However,BWR is a critical structural parameter that tremendously affects the dynamic behaviour of not only the tunnel tube itself but also the cable system.In the context of a SFT prototype（SFTP） project in Qiandao Lake（Zhejiang Province,China）,the importance of BWR is illustrated by finite element analysis and subsequently,an optimized BWR is proposed within a reasonable range in the present study.In the numerical model,structural damping is identified to be of importance.Rayleigh damping and the corresponding Rayleigh coefficients are attained through a sensitivity study,which shows that the adopted damping ratios are fairly suitable for SFTP.Lastly,the human sense of security is considered by quantifying the comfort index,which helps further optimize BWR in the SFTP structural parameter design.

APRI as a predictor of early viral response in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM:To evaluate the aspartate aminotransferase(AST) to platelet ratio index(APRI) as a predictive factor of early viral response in chronic hepatitis C naive patients.METHODS:We performed an ambispective case-control study.We enrolled chronic hepatitis C naive patients who were evaluated to start therapy with PEGylated interferon α-2b(1.5 μg/kg per week) and ribavirin(>75 kg:1200mg and <75kg:1000mg).Patients were allocated into two groups,group 1:Hepatitis C patients with early viral response(EVR),group 2:Patients without EVR.Odds ratio(OR) and 95% confi dence interval(CI) were calculated to assess the relationship between each risk factor and the EVR in both groups.RESULTS:During the study,80 patients were analyzed,45 retrospectively and 35 prospectively.The mean ± SD age of our subjects was 42.9 ± 12 years;weight 70 kg(±11.19),AST 64.6 IU/mL(±48.74),alanine aminotransferase(ALT) 76.3 IU/mL(±63.08) and platelets 209000 mill/mm3(±84 429).Fifty-five(68.8%) were genotype 1 and 25(31.3%) were genotype 2 or 3;the mean hepatitis C virus RNA viral load was 2 269 061 IU/mL(±7220266).In the univariate analysis,APRI was not associated with EVR [OR 0.61(95% CI 0.229-1.655,P=0.33)],and the absence of EVR was only associated with genotype 1 [OR 0.28(95% CI 0.08-0.94,P=0.034)].After adjustment in a logistic regression model,genotype 1 remains signifi cant.CONCLUSION:APRI was not a predictor of EVR in chronic hepatitis C;Genotype 1 was the only predictive factor associated with the absence of EVR in our patients.

地磁异常识别技术在松原5.7级地震前的应用研究

运用地磁异常识别技术对2018年5月28日松原5.7级地震前的地磁异常展开研究。采用加卸载响应比法、逐日比法、日变化空间相关法、异常叠加法对吉林省三岗台、通化台及东北地区邻近的大连台、营口台、朝阳台、铁岭台等台站,运用松原5.7级地震前18个月内的地磁预处理分钟值数据进行计算分析和异常判定识别。研究结果表明:在加卸载响应比法、逐日比法和日变化空间相关法的基础上,运用异常叠加法提取的地磁异常,其预测的位置与真实值更加接近,预测结果对省内地震具有重要的指示意义。

风载作用下高速列车曲线通过性能研究

在风载和曲线欠超高叠加的不利工况下,高速列车的运行安全性表现出复杂的变化规律,因此需要针对风载作用下高速列车的曲线通过安全性进行深入研究。采用空气动力学和车辆动力学相结合的分析方法,考虑车速和风速变化、实际轮轨匹配及线路激励情况,建立瞬态风载模型、横风作用下高速列车空气动力学模型及车辆动力学模型;对高速列车在不同车速和风速作用下的气动载荷变化规律进行分析,并对其以不同速度通过不同欠超高曲线线路时的脱轨系数、轮重减载率和轮轴横向力等车辆关键动力学参数的变化规律进行分析,研究风载和曲线欠超高对高速列车脱轨和倾覆的影响。结果表明:风速变化引起的侧向力系数变化幅度大于车速;在风载和曲线欠超高叠加的不利工况下,除轮重减载率安全裕量明显降低外,轮轴横向力的安全裕量也降低,且车辆关键悬挂部件工作状态恶化,其中二系横向止档的位移迅速增大且工作状态接近压并,左右两侧空气弹簧压力差也迅速增大,车辆动力学性能的安全裕量明显下降。

于田地区强震前加卸载响应比异常及强震复发间隔

21世纪以来,于田地区发生了4次MS≥6.0地震,包括两次MS7.3地震,引起广泛关注.我们基于加卸载响应比方法 (Load-Unload Response Ratio, LURR),以地震目录(来自中国地震台网中心)为资料,对2008-2020年于田地区4次强震进行分析.结果显示,4次地震前,均在震源区及附近检测到LURR异常,且震前LURR异常空间分布随时间的变化过程类似.强震发生滞后于LURR异常峰值:2008年MS7.3、2014年MS7.3及2020年MS6.4地震,滞后于LURR异常峰值1~2 a;2012年MS6.2地震发生于LURR异常峰值后半年.相邻的民丰地区,1924年发生了MS7.3和MS7.2地震,于田-民丰地区强震较为活跃.我们基于地震导致的地壳介质损伤的平板模型,探索于田及周边地区的强震复发特征.得到于田-民丰地区长期的损伤-愈合速率为3.86×10^(-4)/a.基于单次M 7.5地震造成的损伤,估算这一区域7.5级左右地震的复发间隔约50 a.本文对于田地区强震前介质特征的变化,及区域强震复发间隔提出新的认识.

宁强MS5.3地震前的LURR综合分析

2018年9月12日在陕西省汉中市宁强县发生了MS5.3地震,震源深度11 km。基于陕西区域2014—2018年地球物理观测资料,选取地下水位、洞体应变、体应变以及地电场等观测手段的20个观测站点,采用库仑应力触发模型的加卸载响应比计算方法,计算各个站点的加卸载响应比(LURR),对此次地震前的异常信息进行分析讨论。初步获知:(1)LURR异常出现时间集中在2017年底至2018年5月,其中地下水位LURR出现异常变化时间最早,出现极大值的时间也最早,而洞体应变、体应变、地电场LURR异常开始时间较晚,集中在2018年2—5月,极大值出现时间集中在2018年3—7月。(2)从各观测手段的异常变化幅度来看,地下水位的变化幅度最小,洞体应变和体应变的变化幅度最大,地电场的变化幅度居中;从空间分布看,不同测项的异常站点有分布较为集中的现象。(3)周至地电场LURR与优势方位角异常变化在时域上较为同步。(4)总体上,地下水位、洞体应变、体应变以及地电场这几种地球物理观测资料反映的LURR异常演化具有准同步性。这为尝试多种观测资料计算LURR,进行多重物理量相互验证,提高异常信息的可信度等提供参考。