In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investm...In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.展开更多
The proposal of"Belt and Road Initiative"has brought greater opportunities for the development of China's agricultural trade,but in recent years,China's agricultural trade deficit has shown a trend o...The proposal of"Belt and Road Initiative"has brought greater opportunities for the development of China's agricultural trade,but in recent years,China's agricultural trade deficit has shown a trend of gradually expanding.Based on the data of seven years from 2012 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the agricultural trade effect of China's economic growth.It is concluded that the consumption effect of agricultural trade in China's economic growth is anti-trade biased,the production effect and comprehensive effect of agricultural trade are pro-trade biased,and China's terms of trade of agricultural products tend to improve.This paper puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of export structure,production mode,agricultural product processing,logistics mode,e-commerce system,inspection and quarantine and so on.展开更多
文摘In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.
文摘The proposal of"Belt and Road Initiative"has brought greater opportunities for the development of China's agricultural trade,but in recent years,China's agricultural trade deficit has shown a trend of gradually expanding.Based on the data of seven years from 2012 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the agricultural trade effect of China's economic growth.It is concluded that the consumption effect of agricultural trade in China's economic growth is anti-trade biased,the production effect and comprehensive effect of agricultural trade are pro-trade biased,and China's terms of trade of agricultural products tend to improve.This paper puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of export structure,production mode,agricultural product processing,logistics mode,e-commerce system,inspection and quarantine and so on.
