The Long-Run Performance of IPOs in Italy： A Comparison of Venture and Non-Venture-Backed Companies

The phenomena associated with the performance of newly listed companies has increased the interest of many researchers who have developed a vast literature on long-term underpricing and underperformance, which together with hot and cold issue markets, represent the three anomalies that have always accompanied with Initial Public Offerings （IPOs）. The objective of this work is to investigate the long-run performance of IPOs of venture and non-venture-backed companies. The analysis of a sample of 102 IPOs carried out in Italy in 1998-2005 revealed that both companies （venture-backed and non-venture-backed） showed negative values, thus, confirming the phenomenon of underperformance. During the 36 months following their listing, venture-backed companies seemed to register negative and statistically significant values both with the CARsVB methodology （-93.99%） and the Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns methodology （BHARsVB -88.37%）. Venture-backed companies, unlike non- venture-backed companies, seem to be able to restrain the losses, measured by both methods, in the first 12 months （CARsB - 12.38% -20.15% CARSNNVB; BHARsVB - 10.17%; BHARsNVB - 15.51%）. During the 36 months, however, the IPOs showed negative and statistically significant values regardless of whether they were venture or non-venture-backed. The test on the difference between the average abnormal returns of the two methodologies （CAARS and BHAARs） did not produce statistically significant results. The Wealth Relative was calculated and from the results it would appear that the portfolio of venture-backed IPOs does not register ＂brilliant＂ performances. The portfolio of 102 IPOs does not seem to beat the ＂market portfolio＂. In conclusion, therefore, the phenomenon of underperformance seems to be real in our country and is documented by strongly negative and statistically significant values obtained from the samples of IPOs analyzed.

A NOVEL STOCHASTIC HEPATITIS B VIRUS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH SECOND-ORDER MULTIPLICATIVE α-STABLE NOISE AND REAL DATA

This work presents an advanced and detailed analysis of the mechanisms of hepatitis B virus(HBV)propagation in an environment characterized by variability and stochas-ticity.Based on some biological features of the virus and the assumptions,the corresponding deterministic model is formulated,which takes into consideration the effect of vaccination.This deterministic model is extended to a stochastic framework by considering a new form of disturbance which makes it possible to simulate strong and significant fluctuations.The long-term behaviors of the virus are predicted by using stochastic differential equations with second-order multiplicative α-stable jumps.By developing the assumptions and employing the novel theoretical tools,the threshold parameter responsible for ergodicity(persistence)and extinction is provided.The theoretical results of the current study are validated by numerical simulations and parameters estimation is also performed.Moreover,we obtain the following new interesting findings:(a)in each class,the average time depends on the value ofα;(b)the second-order noise has an inverse effect on the spread of the virus;(c)the shapes of population densities at stationary level quickly changes at certain values of α.The last three conclusions can provide a solid research base for further investigation in the field of biological and ecological modeling.

ECM模型短期动态系数与协整模型长期均衡系数不一致性研究

研究了ECM模型中短期动态系数和协整模型中长期均衡系数之间的不一致性。根据协整理论,因变量的变化可以分解为基本面的变化和暂时性的噪声成分,短期动态系数由此产生。然而变量的差分减小了基本面的影响,同时提升了噪声对真实经济关系的扭曲。短期动态系数的推导过程进一步表明,噪声是造成短期动态系数小于长期均衡系数的原因。因变量变化越大,噪声的影响越小。国内外铜期货市场整合检验的实证结果与理论分析的预测相一致,实证结果同时显示,误差修正项的引入对短期动态系数的估计没有显著影响;当因变量变化巨大时,短期动态系数接近于长期均衡系数。

Examination of Causal Relationship Among Consumer Goods Price Index, Bovine, and Water Buffalo Milk Price in Turkey With Vector Error Correction Model

In this study, causalities among consumer goods price index （CPI）, cattle milk price, and buffalo milk price are researched for Turkey using data covering the period from January 2005 to December 2014. The cointegration analysis and vector error correction model （VECM） are used the casualty relationship among CPI, cattle milk piece, and buffalo milk piece in estimating. According to unit root test, results indicate that each of series is not stationary, when the variables are defined in levels; but that each of series is stationary, when the variables are defined in first differences. Johansen＇s cointegration test results show that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship among CPI, cattle milk piece, and buffalo milk piece. It is concluded that there are three cointegration vectors in the data. Since the series are found to be cointegrated, it used VECM model to test the existence of causality. According to the VECM, there has been no long-term relationship among the variables. In the results of cointegration analysis, its relation between cattle milk piece and CPI is found to be negative. However, a positive relationship has been found between cattle milk price and buffalo milk piece.

Empirical Analysis of Interactions of Agricultural Sector and HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Africa

This study examines long run economic cost of HIV/AIDS on agriculture. Twenty-two African Countries were identified through purposive sampling. The sampling procedure helped to identify 1420 affected households. However, 1300 observations were found suitable for the subsequent analysis. Data were subjected to descriptive statistics and Overlapping Generation (OLG) model. The causes of high prevalence rates are the issue of poverty, fertility, myth and migration among others. Factors responsible for the classification of high HIV/AIDS prevalence rates were the patterns of spread of infectious disease that are closely associated with patterns of human mobility. For lower HIV/AIDS prevalence rate factors were low values of procreation and high values placed on morals. A positive correlation between HIV prevalence and GDP per capita was found. The study found out that there is a curvilinear relationship between the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and agricultural/economic growth in terms of human capita development.

The Efficient Market Theory and Mergers and Acquisitions （M＆As） Puzzle： Evidence From Italy

The efficient market theory is a central point in finance. If the capital market is competitive, the investors cannot expect superior gains from their investment strategies with respect to the risk profile. Event studies are an approach to verify the impact of the information on the stock prices. In an efficient market, stock prices should fully, promptly, and quickly capture all the information. Instead, the market shows phenomena of an under-reaction and over-reaction for both the short and the long run. The mergers and acquisitions （M＆As） are examples of anomalies. Often, the bidder companies record the negative abnormal returns for both the short and the long run. In contrast to the efficient market theory, the empirical evidence shows that this phenomenon is widespread in all （or most of） the countries of the world. This work examines the long-run performance in M＆As. For this purpose, 40 bidders were observed in Italy during the period of 1994-2008 among listed companies. The buy and hold abnormal returns （BHARs） methodology was used, with which it was possible to observe the returns for three years following the deal.

The long-run estimation role of industrial parks on the level of sustainability in Iran and Turkey

The literature on the development of industrial parks has often been neglected by the role of sustainability criteria for long-term prediction.The current study aimed to evaluate the relationship between industrial park development and sustainability levels in Iran and Turkey from 1980 to 2019.Although many researchers have investigated the link between them in different geographical locations,there is no clear picture of the relationship as the results overall are contradictory.An autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model bounds testing panel data method with structural fractures was used to analyze the annual selected data to determine whether the development of industrial parks in Iran and Turkey has been successful.The ARDL model is special in that it incorporates sustainability criteria by role of industrial“parks”.The reasoning behind including this explanatory variable is to determine whether countries with industrial parks are more sustainable and to identify future development challenges.Theory suggests that developing industrial parks will eventually strengthen sustainability regulations and policy implementations based on environmental and economic issues.

Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications:Comovement or Ripple Effect

The overheated housing market has recently become a top priority of the Chinese authorities and whether the ripple effect exists is key to understanding this housing issue. The present paper uses a cointegration estimation technique for six first-tier Chinese cities during the 2003-2013 period to show that the comovements among housing prices in China are fully reflected in a long-run equilibrium. Using the Toda- Yamamoto causality test, the ripple effect is found to be characterized by a lead -lag relationship. More importantly, it is found that Beo＇ing is the main source of housing price appreciation in China, and should be targeted as the regulatory object to efficiently resolve the troubles in this increasingly high housing-price era.

Transmission Use of System Charging for Differentiating Long-term Impacts from Various Generation Technologies

This paper proposes a novel transmission use of system(TUoS)charging method,which is able to 1)acknowledge the trade-offs between short-run congestion cost and long-run investment cost when justifying economic network investment,2)identify the impacts of different generation technologies on congestion cost and network investment,and 3)translate these impacts into economically efficient TUoS tariffs that differentiate generation technologies.An incremental capacity change from a generator will impact the congestion costs at each branch,which is then translated into the impacts on investment time horizons.The difference in the present values with and without the incremental change for a branch is its long-run incremental cost(LRIC).The final TUoS tariff for this generator is the sum of all LRIC triggered by its capacity increment.The proposed method is demonstrated on a modified IEEE 14-bus system to show its effectiveness over the traditional approach.Results show that it can provide cost-reflective TUoS tariffs for different generation technologies at the same sites by examining their respective impacts on congestion and investment.It thus can incentivize appropriate generation expansion to reduce congestion costs and ultimately network investment cost.

Optimizing checkpoint for scientific simulations

It is extremely time-consuming to restart a long-running simulation from the beginning when a failure occurs.Checkpointing is a viable solution that enables simulations to be resumed from the point of failure.We study three models to determine the optimal checkpoint interval between contiguous checkpoints so that the total execution time is minimized and we demonstrate that optimal checkpointing can facilitate self-optimizing.This study greatly advances our knowledge of and practice in optimizing long-running scientific simulations.

The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model

In this paper,following Blanchard and Fischer(1989),I investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic-the increase in the probability of death-may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model.Without money,the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare.By contrast,when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance(CIA)constraint on consumption,the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply.Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.