Study on the Price Design and Contract Stability of "Company + Farmer" Model with Time Preference under Double Moral Hazards

The double moral hazard of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ and the time preference cost of company and farmer was analyzed. According to static game model, it re-vealed that the reason for low compliance rate of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ model was the existence of market risk, namely, the fluctuation of market price, and the stable market price in contracts was actualy a kind of interval, instead of a specific value. Furthermore, the effect of default penalty, market transaction cost and time prefer-ence cost on the stability of contract was studied. The results showed that default penalty, market transaction cost and time preference cost had positive influence on the price interval range of a contract.

Progress billing method of accounting for long-term construction contracts

This article questions the reliability of the amount of revenue recognized in the percentage of completion （POC） method of revenue recognition in construction industry and recommends a new method based on the progress billing which is more reliable. The most commonly used method of revenue recognition in the construction industry is the percentage of completion method （POC）, where the revenue is recognized on the basis of the percentage of work completed. The calculation of percentage of work completed is made on the basis of the cost incurred for the contract work during the financial period and the cost required for completion of the work as estimated by the contractor. Here, the acceptance of the product by the buyer （contractee） is not involved in recognizing the revenue. The reliability of the amount of revenue and its collectability can be assured only when the buyer accepts the product. The approval of the progress bill by the contractee is needed to assure the reliability and collectability and it must be the event that triggers the recognition of revenue.

Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market

Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.

G-Contractive Sequential Composite Mapping Theorem in Banach or Probabilistic Banach Space and Application to Prey-Predator System and A &H Stock Prices

Theorems of iteration g-contractive sequential composite mapping and periodic mapping in Banach or probabilistic Bannach space are proved, which allow some contraction ratios of the sequence of mapping might be larger than or equal to 1, and are more general than the Banach contraction mapping theorem. Application to the proof of existence of solutions of cycling coupled nonlinear differential equations arising from prey-predator system and A&H stock prices are given.

Effect of contract choice on upstream carbon emission reduction considering carbon taxation

In order to curb the manufacturer’s product carbon emission levels, the leading retailer usually offers three contracts to the manufacturer, i.e., wholesale-price contract(WC), cost-sharing contract(CC) and revenue-sharing contract(RC). The results of implementing the three contracts are discussed and compared. The results reveal that as long as the government levies carbon taxations, all the three contracts can effectively stimulate the manufacturer to invest in carbon emission reduction. Among the three contracts, RC can achieve the highest level of carbon emission reduction of products and the maximum profits for both the manufacturer and retailer in a supply chain. However, the RC fails to reach the level of the centralized supply chain(CSC), thus it cannot coordinate the supply chain. The supply chain members’ contract choices are consistent. Both members prefer RC to the other two contracts. In order to effectively reduce the manufacturer’s carbon emission levels, the government should impose the highest carbon taxation level under RC, the medium carbon taxation level under CC, the lowest carbon taxation level under WC, and the same carbon taxation level as RC under the CSC.

One size fits all? Contract farming among broiler producers in China

Contract farming has been increasingly found to benefit smallholders in developing countries, yet much less is known about its role in the poultry industry where economies of scale could be more prominent. This study aims to narrow this gap by analysing the choice of contract farming among Chinese broiler producers using a nationally representative survey. Simply cost-benefit analysis and multinomial logit regression modelling are jointly employed to explain contract farming decision making especially among small producers. In contrast to many recent studies, we find that small producers, though not passively excluded, usually opt out of contract farming due to limited profitability when large producers are coexistent. Such relationship is appropriately identified through a control function approach to correct for possible endogeneity. Therefore, contract farming may not help achieve higher welfare goals for small broiler producers who actually instead seek alternative market opportunities that better realise their comparative advantages.

Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development

In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.

Stock Price Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks Long Short-Term Memory: A Bibliometric Analysis and Systematic Literature Review

This study maps the academic literature on Stock Price Forecasting with Long-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks—RNA LSTM. The objective is to know if it is suitable for time series studies, especially for stock price projection. Through bibliometric analysis and systematic literature review, it is observed that 333 authors wrote on the topic between 2018 and March 2022, and the journals Expert Systems with Applications, IEEE Access, Big Data Journal and Neural Computing and Applications, published the most relevant articles. Of the 99 articles published in this period, 43 are associated with Chinese institutions, the most cited being that of Kim and Won, who studies the volatility of returns and the market capitalization of South Korean stocks. The basis of 65% of the studies is the comparison between the RNN LSTM and other artificial neural networks. The daily closing price of shares is the most analyzed type of data, and the American (21%) and Chinese (20%) stock exchanges are the most studied. 57% of the studies include improvements to existing neural network models and 42% new projection models.

Cost Optimization Strategy for Long-Term Storage of Scientific Workflow

With the rapid development of cloud environment, the capabilities of systems have been promoted with powerful computing and storage. But for the characteristic of “pay-as-you-go” of cloud resources, it is necessary to consider the different data storage cost. Especially for processing of “old data” in longterm storage, an appropriate strategy is needed to reduce users’ cost. Considering the characteristics of price stratification in the current commercial cloud environment, a three-level price stratified storage strategy is proposed based on the CTT-SP algorithm, which stores part of the “old data” on relatively inexpensive secondary and tertiary storage, and ensures that the time delay caused by three-level storage does not exceed the deadline. Compared with other storage methods, the experimental result shows the strategy proposed can guarantee the time delay while reducing the cost of users significantly in longterm storage.

Movement in Global Prices Mixed;A Index Higher,Chinese Prices Lower

Recent price movement NY futures and the A Index moved slightly higher over the past month,while other benchmark prices were unchanged.?Prices for the March NY futures contract rose from levels near 62 cents/lb to those over 65 cents/lb.The A Index increased from values near 69 cents/lb to those near 71 cents/lb.The CC Index was stable in international(92 cents/lb)and local terms(near12,950 RMB/ton).Indian prices held to values

Cotton market fundamentals & price outlook, NOVEMBER 2021

RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT All benchmark prices increased over the past month.●The December NY/ICE contract increased from 110 to ll 8 cents/lb.Open interest has been migrating out of the December contract ahead of its expiration and into the March contract.●March NY/ICE futures have been trading a little lower than December,with the latest values near 114 cents/lb.

Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

Benchmark prices either increased or were stable over the past month.Prices for the May NY futures con-tract increased, climbing from levels near 75 cents/lb in mid-March to those near 79 cents/lb recently. The July contract, which now represents more open interest, also rose and has maintained values slightly higher than those for the May contract.

工程总承包计价中的价格清单问题研究

为了推动工程总承包规范发展,有必要对其计价中的价格清单问题进行讨论。首先,对国内与国际惯例中的价格清单模式进行阐述和比较;其次,从价格清单的属性和使用两个角度出发,分析了价格清单存在的问题;最后,从价格清单的编制、作用以及变更三个层面提出完善建议,以期促进我国工程总承包高质量规范发展。

NY futures & A Index turn lower Chinese prices unchanged

2015.5 Recent price movement After trending higher from midMarch through the end of April,values for NY futures and the A Index turned lower in May.Chinese prices have been stable,while Indian and Pakistani prices increased.Prices for the nearby July contract(NY futures)met resistance near 68 cents/

考虑网络口碑的供应链定价与协调研究

随着电子商务和社交网络的迅速发展,网络口碑正在影响和改变消费者的购买习惯,并对企业决策产生重要影响。本文考虑由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链,通过建立两阶段定价模型研究网络口碑对供应链定价和协调的影响。首先,文章分析了集中决策下网络口碑对供应链最优定价策略和整体利润的影响;其次,设计批发价契约和收益共享契约对分散决策下的供应链进行协调。研究表明:当受正面口碑影响时,系统会降低第一阶段价格,提高第二阶段价格,且口碑影响力度越大,两阶段的价格差异越小,供应链整体利润越高;当受负面口碑影响时,系统会提高第一阶段价格,降低第二阶段价格,且口碑影响力度越大,两阶段的价格差异越大,供应链整体利润越低;批发价契约无法实现供应链的协调,收益共享契约可以同时改善制造商、零售商和供应链整体利润,实现供应链协调。

基于柔性契约的应急物资政企联合储备定价博弈模型

为提高突发事件应急物资保障能力与韧性、控制政府采购成本,构建基于柔性契约的应急物资政企联合储备定价博弈模型。以政府采购成本最小化、供应商利润最大化为目标,运用逆向归纳法依次求解供应商最优实物、原材料储备量决策和政府最优定价决策,并进行数值模拟仿真验证及变量敏感性分析。研究结果表明:与政府单独储备模式相比,该模型能够提升应急物资储备水平,提高政府应对突发事件的能力,同时降低政府采购成本并提高供应商收益,实现政企双方共赢。高灾害概率促使政府增加储备、企业调整生产,政府大规模的常规采购会给企业带来稳定收益,企业在现货市场供给率较大时会提高原材料储备量。灾害发生概率、现货市场采购价格、政府常规采购量、现货市场供给率等因素对政企双方决策及成本收益均有影响。研究结果可为政企双方应急物资储备量、采购价格以及激励双方合作储备提供决策参考。

不对称信息下的提成制销售激励合同设计

代理商销售模式下,不对称信息对制造商产品定价与销售合同设计的影响越来越不容忽视。本文基于委托代理模型,分别构建了两种信息情况下提成制激励合同模型,对比分析了信息不对称下产品定价与代理商提成的关系,以及信息不对称对代理商收益、制造商利润的影响。研究发现,制造商最优定价与高需求实现概率和努力成本密切相关,当高需求市场实现概率较小且努力成本较高时,制造商将放弃对代理商的激励,并设定较低产品价格。当制造商激励代理商努力时,不对称信息有利于提高代理商期望收益,但会降低制造商期望利润,不影响价格高低。此外,不对称信息会缩小制造商可接受的努力成本区间,当代理商努力成本较大时,制造商会因薪酬支出过高而放弃对代理商的激励,而不对称信息使得代理商薪酬进一步提高,使得制造商更倾向于不激励代理商努力,相应定价也随之降低。

不同数字技术投资模式决策及其对绿色供应链定价影响

将数字技术投资模式引入绿色供应链定价决策中,分别构建数字技术固定投资模式和边际投资模式情形下的供应链模型,研究不同数字技术投资模式对绿色供应链定价决策影响.研究发现,(1)两种模式下,制造商分别存在一个改善自身利润的数字技术投资成本阈值,存在一个数字技术投资合作区间,提出零售商收益分享+罗宾斯坦恩讨价还价模型达成供应链双赢;(2)数字技术边际投资模式下的批发价(零售价)大于数字技术固定投资模式下的批发价格,但数字技术固定投资模式下的产品绿色度比数字技术边际投资模式下大;(3)两种数字技术投资模式都能带来零售商利润的改善,且零售商利润在数字技术固定投资模式下更大.相同数字技术投资总成本下,数字技术固定投资模式更有利于提高供应链成员企业的利润.

企业数据资产的区块链交易定价机制研究

数据资产是数据时代的重要资产形式,只有推动数据的充分利用、高度分享,才能引领颠覆性技术创新,形成数字经济时代经济增长的新动能。当前,数据资产在市场上的归属权和使用权较为模糊、定价不统一,其交易存在收益激励不足、价格机制不统一、交易技术不安全等问题。数据资产的需求日益增长,但其交易定价机制尚未形成有效共识,其重要性、模糊性、安全性要求加快技术研发,完善数据资产确权制度和追溯技术。为充分挖掘数据价值、保障数据资产的产权权益、推动数据共享,需确立数据资产的交易定价制度。从数据所有、经营、使用和监管的角度分析数据资产的形成过程和交易流程,提出基于收益分工的数据资产定价策略和基于区块链智能合约的自动化交易方法。

碳税-碳交易下零售商主导型供应链公平关切决策

在碳税-碳交易政策的影响下,以一个主导零售商和从属中小制造商(SMM)组成的低碳供应链为研究对象,通过构建SMM有无公平关切行为的分散决策模型以及集中决策模型,并对各个模型的最优决策进行比较分析,探讨SMM的公平关切决策和供应链的协调问题。文章研究了SMM公平关切下公平关切系数、碳减排率和碳税率对供应链定价和利润的影响,并设计了“Nash谈判-两部定价”契约实现系统协调。研究发现,在碳税-碳交易政策的影响下,供应链成员利润随着碳税率的增加而减少,但是供应链成员利润随着碳减排率变动呈现两种不同方向变化。SMM公平关切行为可以提高批发价格和自身利润,降低零售商利润,但对零售价格和系统利润没有影响,随着SMM公平关切系数的增大,零售商与SMM之间的利润差距缩小。文章设计的“Nash谈判-两部定价”契约可以实现系统协调。