The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea

The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.

Long-term Prediction and Verification of Rainfall Based on the Seasonal Model

Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.

New scheme of anticipating synchronization for arbitrary anticipation time and its application to long-term prediction of chaotic states

How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.

Combination of squamous cell carcinoma antigen immunocomplex and alpha-fetoprotein in mid-and long-term prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma among cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND The combination of alpha-fetoprotein(AFP)and squamous cell carcinoma antigen immunocomplex(SCCA-IgM)have been proposed for its use in the screening of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Current screening programs for all cirrhotic patients are controversial and a personalized screening is an unmet need in the precision medicine era.AIM To determine the role of the combination of SCCA-IgM and AFP in predicting mid-and long-term appearance of HCC.METHODS Two-hundred and three cirrhotic patients(Child A 74.9%,B 21.2%,C 3.9%)were followed-up prospectively every six months to screen HCC by ultrasound and AFP according to European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines.The estimation cohort was recruited in Italy(30.5%;62/203)and validation cohort from Spain(69.5%;141/203).Patients underwent to evaluate SCCA-IgM by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(Hepa-IC,Xeptagen,Italy)and AFP levels at baseline.Patients were followed-up for 60 mo,being censored at the time of the appearance of HCC.RESULTS There were 10.8%and 23.1%of HCC development at two-and five-years followup.Patients with HCC showed higher levels of SCCA-IgM than those without it(425.72±568.33 AU/mL vs 195.93±188.40 AU/mL,P=0.009)during the fiveyear follow-up.In multivariate analysis,after adjusting by age,sex,aspartate transaminase and Child-Pugh,the following factors were independently associated with HCC:SCCA-IgM[Hazard ratio(HR)=1.001,95%CI:1.000-1.002;P=0.003],AFP(HR=1.028,95%CI:1.009-1.046;P=0.003)and creatinine(HR=1.56495%CI:1.151-2.124;P=0.004).The log-rank test of the combination resulted in 7.488(P=0.024)in estimation cohort and 11.061(P=0.004)in the validation cohort,and a 100%of correctly classified rate identifying a low-risk group in both cohorts in the two-year follow-up.CONCLUSION We have constructed a predictive model based on the combination of SCCA-IgM and AFP that provides a new HCC screening method,which could be followed by tailored HCC surveillance for individual patients,especially for those cirrhotic patients belonging to the subgroup identified as low-risk of HCC development.

Multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer for long-term urban traffic flow prediction

Long-term urban traffic flow prediction is an important task in the field of intelligent transportation,as it can help optimize traffic management and improve travel efficiency.To improve prediction accuracy,a crucial issue is how to model spatiotemporal dependency in urban traffic data.In recent years,many studies have adopted spatiotemporal neural networks to extract key information from traffic data.However,most models ignore the semantic spatial similarity between long-distance areas when mining spatial dependency.They also ignore the impact of predicted time steps on the next unpredicted time step for making long-term predictions.Moreover,these models lack a comprehensive data embedding process to represent complex spatiotemporal dependency.This paper proposes a multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer(MSPSTT)model to perform accurate long-term traffic flow prediction in cities.MSPSTT adopts an encoder-decoder structure and incorporates temporal,periodic,and spatial features to fully embed urban traffic data to address these issues.The model consists of a spatiotemporal encoder and a spatiotemporal decoder,which rely on temporal,geospatial,and semantic space multi-head attention modules to dynamically extract temporal,geospatial,and semantic characteristics.The spatiotemporal decoder combines the context information provided by the encoder,integrates the predicted time step information,and is iteratively updated to learn the correlation between different time steps in the broader time range to improve the model’s accuracy for long-term prediction.Experiments on four public transportation datasets demonstrate that MSPSTT outperforms the existing models by up to 9.5%on three common metrics.

Prediction model for corrosion rate of low-alloy steels under atmospheric conditions using machine learning algorithms

This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.

Classifying rockburst with confidence:A novel conformal prediction approach

The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.

A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

ST-LSTM-SA:A New Ocean Sound Velocity Field Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning

The scarcity of in-situ ocean observations poses a challenge for real-time information acquisition in the ocean.Among the crucial hydroacoustic environmental parameters,ocean sound velocity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability and it is highly relevant to oceanic research.In this study,we propose a new data-driven approach,leveraging deep learning techniques,for the prediction of sound velocity fields(SVFs).Our novel spatiotemporal prediction model,STLSTM-SA,combines Spatiotemporal Long Short-Term Memory(ST-LSTM) with a self-attention mechanism to enable accurate and real-time prediction of SVFs.To circumvent the limited amount of observational data,we employ transfer learning by first training the model using reanalysis datasets,followed by fine-tuning it using in-situ analysis data to obtain the final prediction model.By utilizing the historical 12-month SVFs as input,our model predicts the SVFs for the subsequent three months.We compare the performance of five models:Artificial Neural Networks(ANN),Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM),Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM),ST-LSTM,and our proposed ST-LSTM-SA model in a test experiment spanning 2019 to 2022.Our results demonstrate that the ST-LSTM-SA model significantly improves the prediction accuracy and stability of sound velocity in both temporal and spatial dimensions.The ST-LSTM-SA model not only accurately predicts the ocean sound velocity field(SVF),but also provides valuable insights for spatiotemporal prediction of other oceanic environmental variables.

Assessments of Data-Driven Deep Learning Models on One-Month Predictions of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

In recent years,deep learning methods have gradually been applied to prediction tasks related to Arctic sea ice concentration,but relatively little research has been conducted for larger spatial and temporal scales,mainly due to the limited time coverage of observations and reanalysis data.Meanwhile,deep learning predictions of sea ice thickness(SIT)have yet to receive ample attention.In this study,two data-driven deep learning(DL)models are built based on the ConvLSTM and fully convolutional U-net(FC-Unet)algorithms and trained using CMIP6 historical simulations for transfer learning and fine-tuned using reanalysis/observations.These models enable monthly predictions of Arctic SIT without considering the complex physical processes involved.Through comprehensive assessments of prediction skills by season and region,the results suggest that using a broader set of CMIP6 data for transfer learning,as well as incorporating multiple climate variables as predictors,contribute to better prediction results,although both DL models can effectively predict the spatiotemporal features of SIT anomalies.Regarding the predicted SIT anomalies of the FC-Unet model,the spatial correlations with reanalysis reach an average level of 89%over all months,while the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients are close to unity in most cases.The models also demonstrate robust performances in predicting SIT and SIE during extreme events.The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed deep transfer learning models in predicting Arctic SIT can facilitate more accurate pan-Arctic predictions,aiding climate change research and real-time business applications.

Data-driven casting defect prediction model for sand casting based on random forest classification algorithm

The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.

Software Defect Prediction Method Based on Stable Learning

The purpose of software defect prediction is to identify defect-prone code modules to assist software quality assurance teams with the appropriate allocation of resources and labor.In previous software defect prediction studies,transfer learning was effective in solving the problem of inconsistent project data distribution.However,target projects often lack sufficient data,which affects the performance of the transfer learning model.In addition,the presence of uncorrelated features between projects can decrease the prediction accuracy of the transfer learning model.To address these problems,this article propose a software defect prediction method based on stable learning(SDP-SL)that combines code visualization techniques and residual networks.This method first transforms code files into code images using code visualization techniques and then constructs a defect prediction model based on these code images.During the model training process,target project data are not required as prior knowledge.Following the principles of stable learning,this paper dynamically adjusted the weights of source project samples to eliminate dependencies between features,thereby capturing the“invariance mechanism”within the data.This approach explores the genuine relationship between code defect features and labels,thereby enhancing defect prediction performance.To evaluate the performance of SDP-SL,this article conducted comparative experiments on 10 open-source projects in the PROMISE dataset.The experimental results demonstrated that in terms of the F-measure,the proposed SDP-SL method outperformed other within-project defect prediction methods by 2.11%-44.03%.In cross-project defect prediction,the SDP-SL method provided an improvement of 5.89%-25.46% in prediction performance compared to other cross-project defect prediction methods.Therefore,SDP-SL can effectively enhance within-and cross-project defect predictions.

Flood Velocity Prediction Using Deep Learning Approach

Floods are one of the most serious natural disasters that can cause huge societal and economic losses.Extensive research has been conducted on topics like flood monitoring,prediction,and loss estimation.In these research fields,flood velocity plays a crucial role and is an important factor that influences the reliability of the outcomes.Traditional methods rely on physical models for flood simulation and prediction and could generate accurate results but often take a long time.Deep learning technology has recently shown significant potential in the same field,especially in terms of efficiency,helping to overcome the time-consuming associated with traditional methods.This study explores the potential of deep learning models in predicting flood velocity.More specifically,we use a Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)model,a specific type of Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs),to predict the velocity in the test area of the Lundesokna River in Norway with diverse terrain conditions.Geographic data and flood velocity simulated based on the physical hydraulic model are used in the study for the pre-training,optimization,and testing of the MLP model.Our experiment indicates that the MLP model has the potential to predict flood velocity in diverse terrain conditions of the river with acceptable accuracy against simulated velocity results but with a significant decrease in training time and testing time.Meanwhile,we discuss the limitations for the improvement in future work.

An adaptive physics-informed deep learning method for pore pressure prediction using seismic data

Accurate prediction of formation pore pressure is essential to predict fluid flow and manage hydrocarbon production in petroleum engineering.Recent deep learning technique has been receiving more interest due to the great potential to deal with pore pressure prediction.However,most of the traditional deep learning models are less efficient to address generalization problems.To fill this technical gap,in this work,we developed a new adaptive physics-informed deep learning model with high generalization capability to predict pore pressure values directly from seismic data.Specifically,the new model,named CGP-NN,consists of a novel parametric features extraction approach(1DCPP),a stacked multilayer gated recurrent model(multilayer GRU),and an adaptive physics-informed loss function.Through machine training,the developed model can automatically select the optimal physical model to constrain the results for each pore pressure prediction.The CGP-NN model has the best generalization when the physicsrelated metricλ=0.5.A hybrid approach combining Eaton and Bowers methods is also proposed to build machine-learnable labels for solving the problem of few labels.To validate the developed model and methodology,a case study on a complex reservoir in Tarim Basin was further performed to demonstrate the high accuracy on the pore pressure prediction of new wells along with the strong generalization ability.The adaptive physics-informed deep learning approach presented here has potential application in the prediction of pore pressures coupled with multiple genesis mechanisms using seismic data.

Mapping Network-Coordinated Stacked Gated Recurrent Units for Turbulence Prediction

Accurately predicting fluid forces acting on the sur-face of a structure is crucial in engineering design.However,this task becomes particularly challenging in turbulent flow,due to the complex and irregular changes in the flow field.In this study,we propose a novel deep learning method,named mapping net-work-coordinated stacked gated recurrent units(MSU),for pre-dicting pressure on a circular cylinder from velocity data.Specifi-cally,our coordinated learning strategy is designed to extract the most critical velocity point for prediction,a process that has not been explored before.In our experiments,MSU extracts one point from a velocity field containing 121 points and utilizes this point to accurately predict 100 pressure points on the cylinder.This method significantly reduces the workload of data measure-ment in practical engineering applications.Our experimental results demonstrate that MSU predictions are highly similar to the real turbulent data in both spatio-temporal and individual aspects.Furthermore,the comparison results show that MSU predicts more precise results,even outperforming models that use all velocity field points.Compared with state-of-the-art methods,MSU has an average improvement of more than 45%in various indicators such as root mean square error(RMSE).Through comprehensive and authoritative physical verification,we estab-lished that MSU’s prediction results closely align with pressure field data obtained in real turbulence fields.This confirmation underscores the considerable potential of MSU for practical applications in real engineering scenarios.The code is available at https://github.com/zhangzm0128/MSU.

Product quality prediction based on RBF optimized by firefly algorithm

With the development of information technology,a large number of product quality data in the entire manufacturing process is accumulated,but it is not explored and used effectively.The traditional product quality prediction models have many disadvantages,such as high complexity and low accuracy.To overcome the above problems,we propose an optimized data equalization method to pre-process dataset and design a simple but effective product quality prediction model:radial basis function model optimized by the firefly algorithm with Levy flight mechanism(RBFFALM).First,the new data equalization method is introduced to pre-process the dataset,which reduces the dimension of the data,removes redundant features,and improves the data distribution.Then the RBFFALFM is used to predict product quality.Comprehensive expe riments conducted on real-world product quality datasets validate that the new model RBFFALFM combining with the new data pre-processing method outperforms other previous me thods on predicting product quality.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Analysis of risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in patients with prostate cancer after castration and the construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.

Future directions of noninvasive prediction of esophageal variceal bleeding:No worry about the present computed tomography inefficiency

In this editorial,we comment on the minireview by Martino A,published in the recent issue of World Journal of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 2023;15(12):681-689.We focused mainly on the possibility of replacing the hepatic venous pressure gradient(HVPG)and endoscopy with noninvasive methods for predicting esophageal variceal bleeding.The risk factors for bleeding were the size of the varices,the red sign and the Child-Pugh score.The intrinsic core factor that drove these changes was the HVPG.Therefore,the present studies investigating noninvasive methods,including computed tomography,magnetic resonance imaging,elastography,and laboratory tests,are working on correlating imaging or serum marker data with intravenous pressure and clinical outcomes,such as bleeding.A single parameter is usually not enough to construct an efficient model.Therefore,multiple factors were used in most of the studies to construct predictive models.Encouraging results have been obtained,in which bleeding prediction was partly reached.However,these methods are not satisfactory enough to replace invasive methods,due to the many drawbacks of different studies.There is still plenty of room for future improvement.Prediction of the precise timing of bleeding using various models,and extracting the texture of variceal walls using high-definition imaging modalities to predict the red sign are interesting directions to lay investment on.