Spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of rural settlements in mountainous areas: an example of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Southwestern China

Rural settlement is the basic spatial unit for compact communities in rural area. Scientific exploration of spatial-temporal differentiation and its influencing factors is the premise of spatial layout rationalization. Based on land use data of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture(hereinafter referred to as Liangshan Prefecture) in Sichuan Province, China from 1980 to 2020, compactness index, fractal dimension, imbalance index, location entropy and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector(OPGD) model are used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the morphological characteristics of rural settlements, and to explore the influence of natural geographical factors, socioeconomic factors, and policy factors on the spatial differentiation of rural settlements. The results show that:(1) From 1980 to 2020, the rural settlements area in Liangshan Prefecture increased by 15.96 km^(2). In space, the rural settlements are generally distributed in a local aggregation, dense in the middle and sparse around the periphery. In 2015, the spatial density and expansion index of rural settlements reached the peak.(2) From 1980 to 2020, the compactness index decreased from 0.7636 to 0.7496, the fractal dimension increased from 1.0283 to 1.0314, and the fragmentation index decreased from 0.1183 to 0.1047. The spatial morphological structure of rural settlements tended to be loose, the shape contour tended to be complex, the degree of fragmentation decreased, and the spatial distribution was significantly imbalanced.(3) The results of OPGD detection in 2015 show that the influence of each factor is slope(0.2371) > traffic accessibility(0.2098) > population(0.1403) > regional GDP(0.1325) > elevation(0.0987) > poverty alleviation(0). The results of OPGD detection in 2020 show that the influence of each factor is slope(0.2339) > traffic accessibility(0.2198) > population(0.1432) > regional GDP(0.1219) > poverty alleviation(0.0992) > elevation(0.093). Natural geographical factors(slope and elevation) are the basic factors affecting the spatial distribution of rural settlements, and rural settlements are widely distributed in the river valley plain and the second half mountain area. Socioeconomic factors(traffic accessibility, population, and regional GDP) have a greater impact on the spatial distribution of rural settlements, which is an important factor affecting the spatial distribution of rural settlements. Policy factors such as poverty alleviation relocation have an indispensable impact on the spatial distribution of rural settlements. The research results can provide decisionmaking basis for the spatial arrangement of rural settlements in Liangshan Prefecture, and optimize the implementation of rural revitalization policies.

Impact of human settlements quality on urban vitality based on multisource data:A case study of Shahekou District,Dalian,China

Urban geography has always been concerned about the influence of human settlements on urban vitality,but few studies reveal the influence of human settlements on urban vitality at a micro-scale.This paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of human settlements’quality and urban vitality at the micro-scale using Geodetectors and geographic weighted regression to analyze the relationship between human settlements and urban vitality.The results are shown as follows:there is still a significant development space for human settlements quality in Shahekou District,with obvious spatial dependence characteristics and significant gaps between various systems;the urban vitality of Shahekou District has obvious timeliness,and the urban vitality undergoes significant changes over time,which is related to the human settlements quality.The spatial distribution presents a single core spatial distribution structure with strong relative stability.The spatial distribution of cold and hot spots shows a pattern of“high in the north and low in the south,high in the east and low in the west”,with an increasing trend from southwest to northeast;the reachability of public transport has a significant impact on urban vitality.Its synergy with other variables is the leading force forming the spatial distribution of urban vitality.The environmental system,support system and social system are the significant factors affecting the urban vitality of Shahekou District.

Spatial Protection and Development of Traditional Mountain Settlements from the Perspective of Self-organization : A Case Study of Anju Ancient Town in Tongliang District, Chongqing

Through literature research, field research and urban design analysis methods, based on the self-organization theory, the evolution characteristics of the settlement space of Anju Ancient Town with significant characteristics of traditional mountain settlements were analyzed, and then its internal and external influencing factors were summarized. Finally, appropriate protection and development strategies were proposed, such as reasonably planning functional zones, breaking through the single structure, and creating a good living cultural environment. The innovation of this study is that it integrates the self-organization theory into the cognition of traditional mountain settlement space, and discusses the connection between the mountain settlement space and the traditional regional context under the modern development concept, so as to seek the benign protection and reasonable development of traditional mountain settlement space.

Prediction of Settlements of Soft Clay Subjected to Long-Term Dynamic Load

Presented is the numerical analysis of settlements of soft soil by a 2-D dynamic effective stress FEM method. The model based on the results of cyclic triaxial tests on the reconstituted soft Ariake clay is used to predict the wave induced excess pore water pressure and residual strain of soft clay. The settlements of two types of breakwaters on the soft clay under ocean wave load, a low embankment subjected to traffic load and the tunnel surrounded by soft clay in Shanghai subjected to locomotive load are calculated as examples.

Naming and Distribution of Traditional Mountain Settlements in Mentougou in Western Beijing

Settlement naming is an important carrier of settlement society and culture,carries regional culture,historical information,beliefs and other information,and is an important clue to understand regional culture and development characteristics.In this paper,the naming of traditional mountain settlements in Mentougou in western Beijing was studied through literature review and field research,and the correlation between the naming and distribution characteristics of the settlements was discussed to provide reference for the protection and construction of mountain settlements in Mentougou.

Climate Change Adaptation and Historic Settlements: Evidence from the Old Town of Corfu

The Old Town of Corfu is an excellent example of a historic town and a World Heritage Site, distinguished by its authentic and unique character, as reflected in its Venetian-era fortifications and extensive historic building stock. Simultaneously, the Old Town of Corfu is also a vibrant modern city vulnerable to various pressures, including climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on this modern city monument, assess its vulnerability using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s methodology, and develop a comprehensive set of adaptation proposals. The methodology of this paper is based on the analysis of climate data for the Old Town of Corfu, from which the assessment of the extreme weather events and climate changes that pose the greatest threat to the Old Town and the assessment of its vulnerability to these threats are derived. The dense geometrical characteristics of the city’s structure, the intense pathology observed in the materials and structures of the historic building stock, problems in the existing electromechanical infrastructure, and the poor management of issues such as increased tourism and heavy traffic congestion are the primary factors that make the Old Town of Corfu vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Spatiotemporal Interaction Between Rural Settlements and Cultivated Land in Karst Mountainous Area,China

Settlements and cultivated land are important production and living spaces in promoting rural revitalization.However,few studies have explored the relationship between rural settlements and cultivated land from spatiotemporal interaction perspective.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal conversion and the interactive mechanism between rural settlements and cultivated land in a karst mountainous area(Qixingguan District of Guizhou Province)with fragile ecological environment in China during 2009–2018.The results showed that the expansion of rural settlements and the loss of cultivated land coexisted in Qixingguan District.Only 2.68%of the new cultivated land was reclaimed from rural settlements,whereas 85.45%of the new rural settlements occupied cultivated land.Six spatial expansion modes of rural settlements when occupying cultivated land were identified.Among these six modes,the area of the edge-expansion&along traffic roads(EA)mode accounted for 52.75%.The occupation by rural settlements made the cultivated land landscape more fragmented.The area ratio index of cultivated land to rural settlements(ARICR)of Qixingguan District averaged 18.75in 2009 and 17.21 in 2018,respectively.The ARICR reduced in all township administrative regions.Cultivated land with suitable slope condition for farming or without rocky desertification was more likely to be occupied by rural settlements.The probability of cultivated land occupied by rural settlements increased with the decrease of the distance to traffic roads,towns,and old rural settlements.The better the economic and social development of the township administrative regions,the more the ARICR decreased,while the richer the agricultural resources and the better the rural development of the township administrative regions,the less the ARICR decreased.The optimal reconstruction path of rural settlements,the comprehensive conservation path of cultivated land and the urban-rural integration development path in karst mountainous area were proposed.The findings would contribute to our understanding of the spatiotemporal interaction between rural settlements and cultivated land,and would provide a theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of rural man-land relationship and rural revitalization in karst areas.

Post-disaster spatial reconstruction from the perspective of a rural settlement niche in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction provide an effective way to reduce the disaster vulnerability of, and promote leapfrog development in, an affected area. To date, studies that have used administrative boundaries to investigate the reconstruction of settlement space have not been able to clearly define the real boundaries of land use changes or quantify the degree of response to the ‘Build-Back-Better’ initiative, and have lacked any consideration of the fourth reconstruction stage–development period(10 years). This study constructed a mountain settlement niche and analyzed the characteristics, spatial reconstruction, and drivers of rural settlements during 2009–2019 in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, southwest China. The results showed the following:(1) Natural factors were the basis for the formation and development of mountain settlement niches. The scale of the settlement niche and its land use structure depended on the physical geography features and the ethnic farming and grazing traditions. The settlement niche provided a realistic boundary for the spatial reconstruction.(2) The layout of residential land around cropland was the common feature of the mountain settlement niche. Of all the land use types, the roads and rural residential lands showed the most change over the 10 years;13,860 residential patches increased in size and 4,742 patches were abandoned.(3) The area of orchards, planted to reconstruct the economy in the mountains, increased by nearly 2.5 times.(4) Collapses, landslides, and debris flow disasters and the ecological red line influenced the spatial reconstruction. While the main focus of post-disaster recovery is spatial reconstruction, initiatives should include economic and spiritual recovery, and should also achieve sustainable development of the region.

Research on Spatial Distribution of Settlements in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River

Under the background of the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the settlements in the upper reaches of the Min River are significantly affected by the mountain environment, and their spatial distribution is typical and representative. In this study, the relationship between settlements and topography, rivers and transportation, and the spatial distribution patterns of settlements, such as the aggregation and orientation characteristics of settlements, have been studied. The main conclusions include: 1) The settlement density decreases with the increase of elevation, slope, and distance from rivers and roads;76.25% and 63.17% of the settlements are distributed in the range of elevation 1500 - 3000 m and slope 6° - 25°, the upper reaches of the Min River are mostly alpine valley terrain, the bottom of the river has a low altitude, the landscape is undulating. The warm and humid climate is suitable for farming, conducive to agricultural production, and an ideal living environment for mountain residents. 2) The nuclear density of the settlement is distributed in strips along the axis of the river, and the closer to the river, the greater the nuclear density value. 3) Mathematical statistical methods were applied for the first time to realize the quantitative expression of the coupling of settlement and river direction. The influence of topographic conditions in different watersheds on the coupling degree of settlement extension and river flow direction was revealed. The slope of the fitted straight line between the settlement and river direction was 0.897, and the two directions were consistent. Except for the mainstream of the Min River, the larger values of the standard deviation ellipse flattening of settlements in each basin appeared in the upper reaches of the bay, and the overall trend showed a gradual decrease from the upstream to the downstream, which was consistent with the topographic change characteristics of the basin.

An efficient physics-guided Bayesian framework for predicting ground settlement profile during excavations in clay

Recently,the application of Bayesian updating to predict excavation-induced deformation has proven successful and improved prediction accuracy significantly.However,updating the ground settlement profile,which is crucial for determining potential damage to nearby infrastructures,has received limited attention.To address this,this paper proposes a physics-guided simplified model combined with a Bayesian updating framework to accurately predict the ground settlement profile.The advantage of this model is that it eliminates the need for complex finite element modeling and makes the updating framework user-friendly.Furthermore,the model is physically interpretable,which can provide valuable references for construction adjustments.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through two field case studies,showing that it can yield satisfactory predictions for the settlement profile.

Ground settlement and tunnel response due to twin-curved shield tunnelling in soft ground with small clear distance

Twin curved tunnels are often encountered in shield tunnelling,where significant complexities in densely exploited underground space are observed.In this study,the ground settlement and tunnel deformation due to twin-curved shield tunnelling in soft ground were investigated using numerical simulation and field monitoring.Different curvature radii of twin curved tunnels and subsequent effects of tunnel construction were considered to reveal the tunnelling effect on ground surface settlement and tunnel deformation.The results show that the settlement trough yields one offset towards inside of curved shield tunnelling.The location of settlement trough and maximum settlement were affected by curvature radius but except for the shape and width of settlement trough.Adjacent parallel twin-curved shield tunnelling could increase the offset of existing settlement trough and maximum settlement.Then,an empirical prediction of surface settlement trough due to twin-curved shield tunnelling with same tunnel diameters in soft clay was proposed,which was applicable to curvature radius less than 800 m.Finally,a minimum radius of 600 m of curvature tunnel was proposed in terms of allowable convergence deformation of tunnel.The result could provide guidance on safety evaluation for twin curved shield tunnelling construction.

Long-Term Performance and Microstructural Characterization of Dam Concrete in the Three Gorges Project

This study investigates the long-term performance of laboratory dam concrete in different curing environments over ten years and the microstructure of 17-year-old laboratory concrete and actual concrete cores drilled from the Three Gorges Dam.The mechanical properties of the laboratory dam concrete,whether cured in natural or standard environments,continued to improve over time.Furthermore,the laboratory dam concrete exhibited good resistance to diffusion and a refined microstructure after 17 years.However,curing and long-term exposure to the local natural environment reduced the frost resistance.Microstructural analyses of the laboratory concrete samples demonstrated that moderate-heat cement and fine fly ash(FA)particles were almost fully hydrated to form compact micro structures consisting of large quantities of homogeneous calcium(alumino)silicate hydrate(C-(A)-S-H)gels and a few crystals.No obvious interfacial transition zones were observed in the microstructure owing to the longterm pozzolanic reaction.This dense and homogenous microstructure was the crucial reason for the excellent long-term performance of the dam concrete.A high FA volume also played a significant role in the microstructural densification and performance growth of dam concrete at a later age.The concrete drilled from the dam surface exhibited a loose microstructure with higher microporosity,indicating that concrete directly exposed to the actual service environment suffered degradation caused by water and wind attacks.In this study,both macro-performance and microstructural analyses revealed that the application of moderate-heat cement and FA resulted in a dense and homogenous microstructure,which ensured the excellent long-term performance of concrete from the Three Gorges Dam after 17 years.Long-term exposure to an actual service environment may lead to microstructural degradation of the concrete surface.Therefore,the retained long-term dam concrete samples need to be further researched to better understand its microstructural evolution and development of its properties.

Long-term thinning decreases the contribution of heterotrophic respiration to soil respiration in subalpine plantations

Interest in the dynamics of soil respiration(R_(S))in subalpine forest ecosystems is increasing due to their high soil carbon density and potential sensitivity to environmental changes.However,as a principal silvicultural practice,the long-term impacts of thinning on R_(S) and its heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration components(R_(h) and Ra,respectively)in subalpine plantations are poorly understood,espe-cially in winter.A 3-year field observation was carried out with consideration of winter CO_(2) efflux in middle-aged sub-alpine spruce plantations in northwestern China.A trench-ing method was used to explore the long-term impacts of thinning on Rs,Rn and R_(a).Seventeen years after thinning,mean annual Rs,Rn and R_(a) increased,while the contribu-tion of R_(h) to R_(s) decreased with thinning intensity.Thinning significantly decreased winter R,because of the reduction in R_(n) but had no significant effect on Ra.The temperature sensitivity(Q_(10))of R_(h) and R_(a) also increased with thinning intensity,with lower Q_(10) values for R_(h)(2.1-2.6)than for Ra(2.4-2.8).The results revealed the explanatory variables and pathways related to R_(n) and R_(a) dynamics.Thinning increased soil moisture and nitrate nitrogen(NO_(3)^(-)-N),and the enhanced nitrogen and water availability promoted R_(h) and R_(a) by improving fine root biomass and microbial activity.Our results highlight the positive roles of NO_(3)^(-)-N in stimulating R_(s) components following long-term thinning.Therefore,applications of nitrogen fertilizer are not recommended while thinning subalpine spruce plantations from the perspective of reducing soil CO_(2) emissions.The increased Q_(10) values of R_(s) components indicate that a large increase in soil CO_(2) emissions would be expected following thinning because of more pronounced climate warming in alpineregions.

Soil bacterial and fungal communities resilience to long-term nitrogen addition in subtropical forests in China

Atmospheric nitrogen(N)deposition is predicted to increase,especially in the subtropics.However,the responses of soil microorganisms to long-term N addition at the molecular level in N-rich subtropical forests have not been clarified.A long-term nutrient addition experiment was conducted in a subtropical evergreen old-growth forest in China.The four treatments were:control,low N(50 kg N ha^(-1)a^(-1)),high N(100 kg N ha^(-1)a^(-1)),and combined N and phosphorus(P)(100 kg N ha^(-1)a^(-1)+50 kg P ha^(-1)a^(-1)).Metagenomic sequencing characterized diversity and composition of soil microbial communities and used to construct bacterial/fungal co-occurrence networks.Nutrient-treated soils were more acidic and had higher levels of dissolved organic carbon than controls.There were no significant differences in microbial diversity and community composition across treatments.The addition of nutrients increased the abundance of copiotrophic bacteria and potentially beneficial microorganisms(e.g.,Gemmatimonadetes,Chaetomium,and Aureobasidium).Low N addition increased microbiome network connectivity.Three rare fungi were identified as module hubs under nutrient addition,indicating that low abundance fungi were more sensitive to increased nutrients.The results indicate that the overall composition of microbial communities was stable but not static to long-term N addition.Our findings provide new insights that can aid predictions of the response of soil microbial communities to long-term N addition.

Prediction of subsurface settlement induced by shield tunnelling in sandy cobble stratum

This study focuses on the analytical prediction of subsurface settlement induced by shield tunnelling in sandy cobble stratum considering the volumetric deformation modes of the soil above the tunnel crown.A series of numerical analyses is performed to examine the effects of cover depth ratio(C/D),tunnel volume loss rate(h t)and volumetric block proportion(VBP)on the characteristics of subsurface settle-ment trough and soil volume loss.Considering the ground loss variation with depth,three modes are deduced from the volumetric deformation responses of the soil above the tunnel crown.Then,analytical solutions to predict subsurface settlement for each mode are presented using stochastic medium theory.The influences of C/D,h t and VBP on the key parameters(i.e.B and N)in the analytical expressions are discussed to determine the fitting formulae of B and N.Finally,the proposed analytical solutions are validated by the comparisons with the results of model test and numerical simulation.Results show that the fitting formulae provide a convenient and reliable way to evaluate the key parameters.Besides,the analytical solutions are reasonable and available in predicting the subsurface settlement induced by shield tunnelling in sandy cobble stratum.

Clinical manifestations,diagnosis and long-term prognosis of adult autoimmune enteropathy:Experience from Peking Union Medical College Hospital

BACKGROUND Autoimmune enteropathy(AIE)is a rare disease whose diagnosis and long-term prognosis remain challenging,especially for adult AIE patients.AIM To improve overall understanding of this disease’s diagnosis and prognosis.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the clinical,endoscopic and histopathological characteristics and prognoses of 16 adult AIE patients in our tertiary medical center between 2011 and 2023,whose diagnosis was based on the 2007 diagnostic criteria.RESULTS Diarrhea in AIE patients was characterized by secretory diarrhea.The common endoscopic manifestations were edema,villous blunting and mucosal hyperemia in the duodenum and ileum.Villous blunting(100%),deep crypt lymphocytic infiltration(67%),apoptotic bodies(50%),and mild intraepithelial lymphocytosis(69%)were observed in the duodenal biopsies.Moreover,there were other remarkable abnormalities,including reduced or absent goblet cells(duodenum 94%,ileum 62%),reduced or absent Paneth cells(duodenum 94%,ileum 69%)and neutrophil infiltration(duodenum 100%,ileum 69%).Our patients also fulfilled the 2018 diagnostic criteria but did not match the 2022 diagnostic criteria due to undetectable anti-enterocyte antibodies.All patients received glucocorticoid therapy as the initial medication,of which 14/16 patients achieved a clinical response in 5(IQR:3-20)days.Immunosuppressants were administered to 9 patients with indications of steroid dependence(6/9),steroid refractory status(2/9),or intensified maintenance medication(1/9).During the median of 20.5 months of followup,2 patients died from multiple organ failure,and 1 was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.The cumulative relapse-free survival rates were 62.5%,55.6%and 37.0%at 6 months,12 months and 48 months,respectively.CONCLUSION Certain histopathological findings,including a decrease or disappearance of goblet and Paneth cells in intestinal biopsies,might be potential diagnostic criteria for adult AIE.The long-term prognosis is still unsatisfactory despite corticosteroid and immunosuppressant medications,which highlights the need for early diagnosis and novel medications.

Assessment of the Influence of Tunnel Settlement on Operational Performance of Subway Vehicles

In the realm of subway shield tunnel operations,the impact of tunnel settlement on the operational performance of subway vehicles is a crucial concern.This study introduces an advanced analytical model to investigate rail geometric deformations caused by settlement within a vehicle-track-tunnel coupled system.The model integrates the geometric deformations of the track,attributed to settlement,as track irregularities.A novel“cyclic model”algorithm was employed to enhance computational efficiency without compromising on precision,a claim that was rigorously validated.The model’s capability extends to analyzing the time-history responses of vehicles traversing settlement-affected areas.The research primarily focuses on how settlement wavelength,amplitude,and vehicle speed influence operational performance.Key findings indicate that an increase in settlement wavelength can improve vehicle performance,whereas a rise in amplitude can degrade it.The study also establishes settlement thresholds,based on vehicle operation comfort and safety.These insights are pivotal for maintaining and enhancing the safety and efficiency of subway systems,providing a valuable framework for urban infrastructure management and long-term maintenance strategies in metropolitan transit systems.

Prediction of high-embankment settlement combining joint denoising technique and enhanced GWO-v-SVR method

Reliable long-term settlement prediction of a high embankment relates to mountain infrastructure safety.This study developed a novel hybrid model(NHM)that combines a joint denoising technique with an enhanced gray wolf optimizer(EGWO)-n-support vector regression(n-SVR)method.High-embankment field measurements were preprocessed using the joint denoising technique,which in-cludes complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition,singular value decomposition,and wavelet packet transform.Furthermore,high-embankment settlements were predicted using the EGWO-n-SVR method.In this method,the standard gray wolf optimizer(GWO)was improved to obtain the EGWO to better tune the n-SVR model hyperparameters.The proposed NHM was then tested in two case studies.Finally,the influences of the data division ratio and kernel function on the EGWO-n-SVR forecasting performance and prediction efficiency were investigated.The results indicate that the NHM suppresses noise and restores details in high-embankment field measurements.Simultaneously,the NHM out-performs other alternative prediction methods in prediction accuracy and robustness.This demonstrates that the proposed NHM is effective in predicting high-embankment settlements with noisy field mea-surements.Moreover,the appropriate data division ratio and kernel function for EGWO-n-SVR are 7:3 and radial basis function,respectively.

New Rural Community Construction or Retention Development:A Comparative Analysis of Rural Settlement Transition Mechanism in Plain Agriculture Area of China Based on Actor Network Theory

It is an important way to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development to guide rural settlement transition(RST)in an appropriate way.This paper uses actor network theory(ANT)to construct a theoretical framework for the study of RST.Taking two typical villages with different transition paths in rural areas of North China Plain as examples,this paper reveals the mechanism of RST and makes a comparative analysis.The results show that:1)after identifying problems and obligatory passage point,key actors recruit heterogeneous actors into the actor network by entrusting them with common interests,and realize RST under the system operation.2)Rural settlements under different transition paths have similarities in the problems to be solved,collective actions and policy factors,but there are differences in the transition process,mechanism and effect.The actor network and mechanism of RST through the path of new rural community construction are more complex and the transition effect is more thorough.In contrast,the degree of RST of retention development path is limited if there is no resource and location advantage.3)Based on the applicable conditions of different paths,this paper designs a logical framework of‘Situation-Structure-Behavior-Result’to scientifically guide the identification of RST paths under the background of rural revitalization.

Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.