Analysis on Long-Term Change of Sea Surface Temperature in the China Seas

Long-term change of sea surface temperature （SST） in the China Seas from 1900 to 2006 is examined based on two different observation datasets （HadlSSTI and HadSST3）. Similar to the Atlantic, SST in the China Seas has been well observed during the past 107 years. A comparison between the reconstructed （HadISSTI） and un-interpolated （HadSST3） datasets shows that the SST wanning trends from both datasets are consistent with each other in most of the China Seas. The warming trends are stronger in winter than in summer, with a maximum rate of SST increase exceeding 2.7℃ （100year）-I in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait during winter based on HadISSTI. However, the SST from both datasets experienced a sudden decrease after 1999 in the China Seas. The estimated trend from HadlSSTI is stronger than that fi＇om HadSST3 in the East China Sea and the east of Taiwan Island, where the difference in the linear SST warming trends are as large as about 1℃ （100year）-I when using respectively HadISST1 and HadSST3 datasets. When compared to the linear winter warnling trend of the land surface air temperature （1.6℃ （100 year）-1）, HadSST3 shows a more reasonable trend of less than 2.1℃（ 100 year）-1 than HadISST 1 ＇s trend of larger than 2.7℃ （ 100 year）-1 at the mouth of the Yangtze River. The restllts also indicate large uncertainties in the estimate of SST warming patterns.

The long-term variability of sea surface temperature in the seas east of China in the past 40 a

The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understood because long-term observations are sparse and, even when they exist, they are over limited areas. Preliminary results on the long-term variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in summer and winter in the seas east of China during the period of 1957-2001 are reported using the Ocean Science Database of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the coastal hydrological station in situ and satellite data. The results show well-defined warming trends in the study area. However warming and cooling trends vary from decade to decade, with steady and rapid warming trends after the 1980s and complicated spatial patterns. The distribution of SST variation is intricate and more blurred in the areas far away from the Kuroshio system. Both historical and satellite data sets show significant warming trends after 1985. The warming trends are larger and spread to wider areas in winter than in summer, which means decrease in the seasonal cycle of SST probably linked with recently observed increase of the tropical zooplankton species in the region. Spatial structures of the SST trends are roughly consistent with the circulation pattern especially in winter when the meridional SST gradients are larger, suggesting that a horizontal advection may play an important role in the long-term SST variability in winter.

Analysis of ground surface settlement in anisotropic clays using extreme gradient boosting and random forest regression models

Excessive ground surface settlement induced by pit excavation(i.e.braced excavation) can potentially result in damage to the nearby buildings and facilities.In this paper,extensive finite element analyses have been carried out to evaluate the effects of various structural,soil and geometric properties on the maximum ground surface settlement induced by braced excavation in anisotropic clays.The anisotropic soil properties considered include the plane strain shear strength ratio(i.e.the ratio of the passive undrained shear strength to the active one) and the unloading shear modulus ratio.Other parameters considered include the support system stiffness,the excavation width to excavation depth ratio,and the wall penetration depth to excavation depth ratio.Subsequently,the maximum ground surface settlement of a total of 1479 hypothetical cases were analyzed by various machine learning algorithms including the ensemble learning methods(extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost) and random forest regression(RFR)algorithms).The prediction models developed by the XGBoost and RFR are compared with that of two conventional regression methods,and the predictive accuracy of these models are assessed.This study aims to highlight the technical feasibility and applicability of advanced ensemble learning methods in geotechnical engineering practice.

Failure mechanism of large-diameter shield tunnels and its effects on ground surface settlements

A new technique for the analysis of the three-dimensional collapse failure mechanism and the ground surface settlements for the large-diameter shield tunnels were presented.The technique is based on a velocity field model using more different truncated solid conical blocks to clarify the multiblock failure mechanism.Furthermore,the shape of blocks between the failure surface and the tunnel face was considered as an entire circle,and the supporting pressure was assumed as non-uniform distribution on the tunnel face and increased with the tunnel embedded depth.The ground surface settlements and failure mechanism above large-diameter shield tunnels were also investigated under different supporting pressures by the finite difference method.

Calculation of maximum surface settlement induced by EPB shield tunnelling and introducing most effective parameter

This study aims to predict ground surface settlement due to shallow tunneling and introduce the most affecting parameters on this phenomenon.Based on data collected from Shanghai LRT Line 2 project undertaken by TBM-EPB method,this research has considered the tunnel's geometric,strength,and operational factors as the dependent variables.At first,multiple regression(MR) method was used to propose equations based on various parameters.The results indicated the dependency of surface settlement on many parameters so that the interactions among different parameters make it impossible to use MR method as it leads to equations of poor accuracy.As such,adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system(ANFIS),was used to evaluate its capabilities in terms of predicting surface settlement.Among generated ANFIS models,the model with all input parameters considered produced the best prediction,so as its associated R^2 in the test phase was obtained to be 0.957.The equations and models in which operational factors were taken into consideration gave better prediction results indicating larger relative effect of such factors.For sensitivity analysis of ANFIS model,cosine amplitude method(CAM) was employed; among other dependent variables,fill factor of grouting(n) and grouting pressure(P) were identified as the most affecting parameters.

Limit analysis of supporting pressure in tunnels with regard to surface settlement

The proliferation of Hoek-Brown nonlinear failure criterion and upper bound theorem makes it possible to evaluate the stability of circular tunnels with an original curved collapsing mechanism. The arch effect of shallow circle tunnel is not taken into consideration so that the mechanical characteristics can be easily described. Based on the mechanism, the upper bound solution of supporting pressure of tunnels under the condition of surface settlements and overloads on the ground surface is derived. The objective function is formed from virtual work equations under the variational principle, and solutions are presented by the optimum theory. Comparisons with previous works are made. The numerical results of the present method show great agreement with those of existing ones. With regard to the surface settlement and overloads, the influence of different rock parameters on the collapsing shape is analyzed.

Relationship between body surface area and ALT normalization after long-term lamivudine treatment

AIM： To further evaluate the relationship between BSA and the effects of lamivudine in a greater number of cases and over a longer period of observation than in our previous evaluation. METHODS： We evaluated 249 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The effects of treatment for one year （n = 249）, two years （n = 147）, and three years （n = 72） were evaluated from the levels of serum ALT and HBVoDNA, as biological and virological effects （undetectable levels by PCR）, respectively. Moreover, several variables that could influence the response to treatment, including ALT, albumin, bilirubin, platelet counts, BSA, HBVoDNA, and HBeAg were analyzed. RESULTS： For 1-year treatment, multivariate analysis revealed that BSA （P = 0.0002） was the only factor for the biological effect, and that ALT （P = 0.0017）, HBV- DNA （P = 0.0004）, and HBeAg （P = 0.0021） were independent factors for the virological effect. For 2-year treatment, multivariate analysis again showed that BSA （P = 0.0147） was the only factor for the biological effect, and that ALT （P = 0.0192） and HBeAg （P = 0.0428） were independent factors for the virological effect. For 3-year treatment, multivariate analysis, however, could not reveal BSA （P = 0.0730） as a factor for the normalization of ALT levels. CONCLUSION： BSA is a significant predictor for the normalizing the effect of lamivudine therapy on ALT for an initial 2-year period, suggesting that lamivudine dosage should be based on the individual BSA.

Effect of the overconsolidation ratio of soils in surface settlements due to tunneling

Construction of urban tunnels requires the control of surface subsidence to minimize any disturbance to nearby buildings and services. Past study of surface subsidence has been limited to mainly empirical solutions based on field studies, and very few analytical studies have been carried out. The available analytical solutions are not sufficient to include complex ground conditions; hence, a comprehensive analytical solution coupled with numerical modeling is necessary to model the effect of surface subsidence due to tunneling. This paper presents the results of modeling of surface settlements due to tunneling using the finite element method. The effect of the overconsolidation ratio of soils expressed in terms of the co- efficient of earth pressure at rest （K0） on surface subsidence due to tunneling is investigated. It is demonstrated that surface settlements appear to be sensitive to K0 values, and for geotechnical calculations pertaining to overconsolidated sand and clay soil, K0 values of 0.6 and 0.8, respectively, are proposed.

Human settlement's social network analysis based on spatial trend surface model:a case study of Chongqing Municipality

Integrated with GIS and remote sensing(RS) technology,a systematic analysis and its methodology for human-settlements social environment has been introduced.This methodology has been called spatial trend field model(STFM).STFM's application history in the field of human-settlements social environment has been discussed at first.Then,some index data models have been created through STFM,which include population density trend field,human activity strength trend field,city-town spatial density trend field,urbanization ratio trend field,road density trend field,GDP spatial density trend field and PER-GDP spatial density trend field.With all above-mentioned indexes as input data,through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Techniques Algorithm(ISODATA),this paper makes a verification study of Chongqing municipality.The result of the case study confirms that STFM methodology is credible and has high efficiency for regional human-settlements study.

Shallow Tunneling Method and Control Measure for Ground Surface Settlement

In order to ensure that the tunnel deformation and surface settlement are controlled within the allowable range during the construction process,the design unit has compiled technical measures and monitoring schemes for ground settlement control of this project.Based on the example of a shallow tunneling project on Subway line 8,this paper analyzes and discusses the shallow tunneling method in detail and puts forward corresponding technical measures for ground settlement control.

A review of surface ozone source apportionment in China

Air pollution caused by particulate matter has significantly improved in China in recent years since the implementation of a series of stringent clean-air regulations.However,surface ozone concentrations have increased,especially in developed city clusters,such as the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Sichuan Basin regions.Due to the complexity and nonlinearity of the ozone formation,accurately locating major sources of ozone and its precursors is an important basis for the formulation of cost-effective pollution control strategies.In this paper,the authors systematically summarize the reported results and outcomes of the methods and main conclusions of ozone source apportionment(regions and categories)in China from the published literature,based on observation-based methods and emission-based methods,respectively.The authors aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of ozone pollution and reliable references for the formulation of air pollution prevention policies in China.

Long-term settlement prediction of high-speed railway bridge pile foundation

The process and characteristics of loading on high-speed railway bridge pile foundation were firstly obtained by means of field research and analysis,and the corresponding loading function was presented.One-dimensional consolidation equation of elastic multilayered soils was then established with single drainage or double drainages under multilevel loading.Moreover,the formulas for calculating effective stress and settlement were derived from the Laplace numerical inversion transform.The three-dimensional composite analysis method of bridge pile group was improved,where the actual load conditions of pile foundation could be simulated,and the consolidation characteristics of soil layers beneath pile were also taken into account.Eventually,a corresponding program named LTPGS was developed to improve the calculation efficiency.The comparison between long-term settlement obtained from the proposed method and the in-situ measurements of pile foundation was illustrated,and a close agreement is obtained.The error between computed and measured results is less than 1 mm,and it gradually reduces with time.It is shown that the proposed method can effectively simulate the long-term settlement of pile foundation and program LTPGS can provide a reliable estimation.

The seasonal variations in the significant wave height and sea surface wind speed of the China's seas

Long-term variations in a sea surface wind speed （WS） and a significant wave height （SWH） are associated with the global climate change, the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, and an ocean resource exploitation, and other activities. The seasonal characteristics of the long-term trends in China＇s seas WS and SWH are determined based on 24 a （1988-2011） cross-calibrated, multi-platform （CCMP） wind data and 24 a hindcast wave data obtained with the WAVEWATCH-III （WW3） wave model forced by CCMP wind data. The results show the following. （1） For the past 24 a, the China＇s WS and SWH exhibit a significant increasing trend as a whole, of 3.38 cm/（s.a） in the WS, 1.3 cm/a in the SWH. （2） As a whole, the increasing trend of the China＇s seas WS and SWH is strongest in March-April-May （MAM） and December-January-February （DJF）, followed by June-July-August （JJA）, and smallest in September-October-November （SON）. （3） The areal extent of significant increases in the WS was largest in MAM, while the area decreased in JJA and DJF; the smallest area was apparent in SON. In contrast to the WS, almost all of China＇s seas exhibited a significant increase in SWH in MAM and DJF; the range was slightly smaller in JJA and SON. The WS and SWH in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, the Tsushima Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the northern South China Sea, the Beibu Gull and the Gulf of Thailand exhibited a significant increase in all seasons. （4） The variations in China＇s seas SWH and WS depended on the season. The areas with a strong increase usually appeared in DJF.

Interannual and Decadal Variations of Surface Solar Radiation over East China in the First Half of the 20th Century

Variability and long-term trends of sunshine duration(SSD) and total cloud cover(TCC) were studied based on surface observations from 10 meteorological stations over East China in the first half of the 20 th century. The correlation coefficients between SSD and diurnal temperature range(DTR), as well as TCC, were analyzed. SSD experienced a significant increasing trend(0.16 h d-1 per decade) from 1908 to 1936, and the maximum brightening was in autumn(0.33 h d-1 per decade). The good agreement between the variability of SSD and DTR, supported by the correlation coefficient between them of 0.72, implies that the SSD measurements were reliable. TCC showed a decreasing trend(-0.93% per decade) and was significantly inversely related to SSD(-0.74), indicating the variation of SSD was attributable to changes in cloud cover. The result was obviously different to that since the 1960 s, when clouds could not account for the decadal trend of surface solar radiation in China.

Changes in Surface Energy Partitioning in China over the Past Three Decades

Surface energy balance and the partitioning of sensible heat flux(SHF) and latent heat flux(LHF) play key roles in land–atmosphere feedback. However,the lack of long-term observations of surface energy fluxes,not to mention spatially extensive ones,limits our understanding of how the surface energy distribution has responded to a warming climate over recent decades(1979–2009) at the national scale in China. Using four state-of-the-art reanalysis products with long-term surface energy outputs,we identified robust changes in surface energy partitioning,defined by the Bowen ratio(BR = SHF/LHF),over different climate regimes in China. Over the past three decades,the net radiation showed an increasing trend over almost the whole of China. The increase in available radiative energy flux,however,was balanced by differential partitioning of surface turbulent fluxes,determined by local hydrological conditions. In semi-arid areas,such as Northeast China,the radiative energy was transferred largely into SHF. A severe deficiency in near-surface and soil moistures led to a significant decreasing trend in LHF. The combined effect of increased SHF and decreased LHF resulted in significant upward trends in the BR and surface warming over Northeast China. In contrast,in the wet monsoon regions,such as southern China,increased downward net radiation favored a rise in LHF rather than in SHF,leading to a significant decreasing trend in the BR. Meanwhile,the increased LHF partly cancelled out the surface warming. The warming trend in southern China was smaller than that in Northeast China. In addition to impacts on heat-related events,the changes in the BR also reflected recent cases of extreme drought in China. Our results indicate that information regarding the BR may be valuable for drought monitoring,especially in regions prone to such conditions.

Prediction of surface settlement caused by synchronous grouting during shield tunneling in coarse-grained soils:A combined FEM and machine learning approach

This paper presents a surrogate modeling approach for predicting ground surface settlement caused by synchronous grouting during shield tunneling process.The proposed method combines finite element simulations with machine learning algorithms and introduces an intelligent optimization algorithm to invert geological parameters and synchronous grouting variables,thereby predicting ground surface settlement without conducting numerous finite element analyses.Two surrogate models based on the random forest algorithm are established.The first is a parameter inversion surrogate model that combines an artificial fish swarm algorithm with random forest,taking into account the actual number and distribution of complex soil layers.The second model predicts surface settlement during synchronous grouting by employing actual cover-diameter ratio,inverted soil parameters,and grouting variables.To avoid changes to input parameters caused by the number of overlying soil layers,the dataset of this model is generated by the finite element model of the homogeneous soil layer.The surrogate modeling approach is validated by the case history of a large-diameter shield tunnel in Beijing,providing an alternative to numerical computation that can efficiently predict surface settlement with acceptable accuracy.

Comparison of machine learning methods for ground settlement prediction with different tunneling datasets

This study integrates different machine learning(ML) methods and 5-fold cross-validation(CV) method to estimate the ground maximal surface settlement(MSS) induced by tunneling.We further investigate the applicability of artificial intelligent(AI) based prediction through a comparative study of two tunnelling datasets with different sizes and features.Four different ML approaches,including support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF),back-propagation neural network(BPNN),and deep neural network(DNN),are utilized.Two techniques,i.e.particle swarm optimization(PSO) and grid search(GS)methods,are adopted for hyperparameter optimization.To assess the reliability and efficiency of the predictions,three performance evaluation indicators,including the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and Pearson correlation coefficient(R),are calculated.Our results indicate that proposed models can accurately and efficiently predict the settlement,while the RF model outperforms the other three methods on both datasets.The difference in model performance on two datasets(Datasets A and B) reveals the importance of data quality and quantity.Sensitivity analysis indicates that Dataset A is more significantly affected by geological conditions,while geometric characteristics play a more dominant role on Dataset B.

Kinematic analysis of shallow tunnel in layered strata considering joined effects of settlement and seepage

The purpose of this work is to predict the state of collapse in shallow tunnel in layered strata by using a new curved failure mechanism within the framework of upper bound theorem.Particular emphasis is first given to consider the effects of seepage forces and surface settlement.Furthermore,the Hoek-Brown nonlinear failure criterion is adopted to analyze the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape.Two different curve functions which describe two different rock layers are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle.According to the numerical results,the parameter B in Hoek-Brown failure criterion and the unit weights in different rock layers have a positive relationship with the size of collapsing block while pore pressure coefficient and the parameter A in Hoek-Brown failure criterion present a reverse tend.

Catastrophe stability analysis for shallow tunnels considering settlement

Limit analysis of the stability of geomechanical projects is one of the most difficult problems.This work investigates the influences of different parameters in NL failure strength on possible collapsing block shapes of single and twin shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement.Upper bound solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory are used for describing the distinct characteristics of falling blocks of different parts in twin tunnels.Furthermore the analytical solutions of minimum supporting pressures in shallow tunnels are obtained by the help of the variational principle.Lastly,the comparisons are made both in collapsed mechanism and stability factor with different methods.According to the numerical results in this work,the influences of different parameters on the size of collapsing block are presented in the tables and the limit supporting loads are illustrated in the form graphs that account for the surface settlement.

Numerical simulation for settlement urban tunnel construction

The excavation for the municipal tunnel will disturb the soil around the tunnel,and the deformation and subsidence of the earth surface always take place,which may lead to instability and even collapse for the building above the tunnel. At the same time the deformation and subsidence of the earth surface affect the normal use of underground municipal pipelines,and may cause the road sudden collapse,leading to significantly traffic accidents. The authors did a research by simulating for the excavation of municipal tunnel and designed the related supporting plan,and put forward some suggestions and measures for the design and construction of urban tunnel.