Recent advances in intelligent transportation system allow traffic safety studies to extend from historic data-based analyses to real-time applications. The study presents a new method to predict crash likelihood with...Recent advances in intelligent transportation system allow traffic safety studies to extend from historic data-based analyses to real-time applications. The study presents a new method to predict crash likelihood with traffic data collected by discrete loop detectors as well as the web-crawl weather data. Matched case-control method and support vector machines （SVMs） technique were employed to identify the risk status. The adaptive synthetic over-sampling technique was applied to solve the imbalanced dataset issues. Random forest technique was applied to select the contributing factors and avoid the over-fitting issues. The results indicate that the SVMs classifier could successfully classify 76.32% of the crashes on the test dataset and 87.52% of the crashes on the overall dataset, which were relatively satisfactory compared with the results of the previous studies. Compared with the SVMs classifier without the data, the SVMs classifier with the web-crawl weather data increased the crash prediction accuracy by 1.32% and decreased the false alarm rate by 1.72%, showing the potential value of the massive web weather data. Mean impact value method was employed to evaluate the variable effects, and the results are identical with the results of most of previous studies. The emerging technique based on the discrete traffic data and web weather data proves to be more applicable on real- time safety management on freeways.展开更多
针对基于浮动车辆数据(floating car data,FCD)的城市道路交通信息采集系统存在的问题,提出一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)和证据理论的数据融合方法,通过融合地感线圈采集的交通流量信息,提高FCD系统交通速度信息采集的准确性.利...针对基于浮动车辆数据(floating car data,FCD)的城市道路交通信息采集系统存在的问题,提出一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)和证据理论的数据融合方法,通过融合地感线圈采集的交通流量信息,提高FCD系统交通速度信息采集的准确性.利用LS-SVM回归得到速度-流量关系曲线的临界速度参数,再根据历史数据库用统计方法计算出流量-速度关联规则的可信度矩阵,在得到这些经验知识的基础上,定义了两种证据源的基本概率分配函数.最后,通过D-S证据理论对两种证据源进行数据融合,获得融合后的速度信息.实地跑车实验结果论证了融合算法的有效性和可靠性.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (71301119)the Shanghai Natural Science Foundation (12ZR1434100)
文摘Recent advances in intelligent transportation system allow traffic safety studies to extend from historic data-based analyses to real-time applications. The study presents a new method to predict crash likelihood with traffic data collected by discrete loop detectors as well as the web-crawl weather data. Matched case-control method and support vector machines （SVMs） technique were employed to identify the risk status. The adaptive synthetic over-sampling technique was applied to solve the imbalanced dataset issues. Random forest technique was applied to select the contributing factors and avoid the over-fitting issues. The results indicate that the SVMs classifier could successfully classify 76.32% of the crashes on the test dataset and 87.52% of the crashes on the overall dataset, which were relatively satisfactory compared with the results of the previous studies. Compared with the SVMs classifier without the data, the SVMs classifier with the web-crawl weather data increased the crash prediction accuracy by 1.32% and decreased the false alarm rate by 1.72%, showing the potential value of the massive web weather data. Mean impact value method was employed to evaluate the variable effects, and the results are identical with the results of most of previous studies. The emerging technique based on the discrete traffic data and web weather data proves to be more applicable on real- time safety management on freeways.
文摘针对基于浮动车辆数据(floating car data,FCD)的城市道路交通信息采集系统存在的问题,提出一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)和证据理论的数据融合方法,通过融合地感线圈采集的交通流量信息,提高FCD系统交通速度信息采集的准确性.利用LS-SVM回归得到速度-流量关系曲线的临界速度参数,再根据历史数据库用统计方法计算出流量-速度关联规则的可信度矩阵,在得到这些经验知识的基础上,定义了两种证据源的基本概率分配函数.最后,通过D-S证据理论对两种证据源进行数据融合,获得融合后的速度信息.实地跑车实验结果论证了融合算法的有效性和可靠性.
