The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and the development strategy of a low-carbon economy in Kazakhstan

Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gases, which can significantly affect the balance of the global ecosystem. It has become the common goal of countries worldwide to address climate change, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and implement sustainable development strategies. In this study, we applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993-2010. The results demonstrated： （1） the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a ＂U＂-type curve from 1993 to 2010. This curve was observed because 1993-1999 was a period during which Kazakhstan transitioned from a republic to an independent country and experienced a difficult transition from a planned to a market economy. Then, the economic system became more stable and the industrial production increased rapidly because of the effective financial, monetary and industrial policy support from 2000 to 2010. （2） The relationships between energy con- sumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked; the carbon emissions were mainly derived from energy consumption, and the dependence of economic growth on energy exports gradually increased from 1993 to 2010. Before 2000, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in a recessional decoupling state because of the economic recession. After 2000, this relationship was in strong and weak decoupling states because the international crude oil prices rose and energy exports increased greatly year by year. （3） It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020. Therefore, a low-carbon economy is the best strategic choice to address climate change from a global perspective in Kazakhstan. Thus, we proposed strategies including the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the development of new energy and renewable energy, the use of cleaner production technologies, the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and the expansion of forest areas.

Establishing a Carbon-Neutrality Oriented Economic System through Green, Low-carbon, and Circular Development

Carbon neutrality requires a profound socio-economic revolution.Since the 21;century,China has been promoting social&economic transformation,and put forward a series of strategic directions for development transformation.As China enters the new era of socialism,building a green,low-carbon and circular economic system has become an important direction for future economic development and transformation.This paper analyzes the relationship between the green,low-carbon and circular economic system and carbon neutrality,and points out that green development,low-carbon development and circular development will greatly reduce carbon emissions of economic development and help realize the carbon goal through co-benefit effect,structural adjustment and resource recycling.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting the transformation of the economic system to green,low-carbon and circular development.

Construction of Dynamic Evaluation Model for Economic Benefits under Development of Low-Carbon New Energy

Because the static evaluation is unable to reflect the dynamic features of economic benefits and the contribution of sustainable development of low-carbon new energy to economic benefits is huge,this article puts forward the dynamic evaluation model of economic benefits under the development of low-carbon new energy.Total energy,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,GDP,total population and energy supply structure were taken as independent variables,and the carbon intensity was taken as the dependent variable.Through t-test and decision coefficient,total energy,energy consumption structure,GDP and total population were determined as the main factors of influencing low-carbon economy.Based on these four main factors,the dynamic evaluation index system of economic benefits was constructed.Experimental results show that the proposed model can comprehensively reflect the economic benefit level and the contribution of low-carbon new energy.Therefore,this method has high evaluation accuracy,which can provide scientific reference for the economic benefit management of relevant management departments.

Global Trend of Low-carbon Economy and China's Responses

Based on the analysis on the global economic crisis,climate change crisis and their mutual underlying reasons,the authors believe that low-carbon economy has become an inevitable choice to break through the dual crises,coordinate the economic development,and protect the global climate.The global trend of low-carbon economy finds expression in Green Recovery currently,while,in a long run,it will give rise to a new pattern of world competition in politics,economy,technology,trade and finance.The impact of the global trend of low-carbon economy on China can not be overlooked,and it is both a challenge and an opportunity for China's future development.Based on comparative studies on the low-carbon economy of China,the U.S.,EU and Japan,the authors conclude that China should blaze a new path of lowcarbon economy development with Chinese characteristics,and the authors have put forward relevant countermeasures for China to address the global trend of low-carbon economy from angles of countries,enterprises and the

基于碳势-能源价格双响应的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

利用电-气-热多元负荷节点碳势引导需求响应是实现综合能源系统(IES)低碳运行的有效手段。IES中多能流耦合关系复杂、动态特性交织,碳排放特性难以准确表达。文中针对IES中低碳运行潜力挖掘不足的问题进行了研究,提出了一种基于节点碳势-能源价格双响应的经济调度方法,用于IES源-荷协同,实现低碳运行。一方面,通过剖析气、热动态特性对碳排放流的影响机理,引入动态特性等价替换思想,得出计及动态特性的碳排放流模型,进而得到负荷节点的碳势,实现碳排放责任的分摊;另一方面,从碳视角出发,考虑多元负荷的碳排放责任,设计了基于多元负荷节点碳势-能源价格双响应的IES源-荷低碳互动机制,充分挖掘IES中多元负荷的低碳潜力。通过对IES中碳排放产生、传输、消费全过程的追踪与计量,制定兼顾经济性与低碳性的调控策略。以电网14节点-热网6节点-天然气网6节点(E14-H6-G6)和E57-H12-G12测试系统为例,验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。

A Study on the Coupling Relationship between Low Carbon Economy and Environmental Resources in Jilin Province

In Jilin Province,China,economic development,high output and rational use of resources have become a pair of unrelieved contradictions.The coupling of eco-environmental and socioeconomic systems is not a simple linear addition of these two systems to form an advanced composite system.Therefore,the analysis of the coupling degree between ecological environment and socioeconomic system from the perspective of dissociative structure can be expressed through the establishment of a system coupling model to express the relationship between the two systems.On this basis,a series of analytical indicators are constructed to quantitatively evaluate and qualitatively analyse the coupling between ecological environment and socioeconomy.

基于乐观行动-评判深度强化学习的含氢综合能源系统低碳经济调度

“双碳”背景下,以氢能为能源载体的含氢综合能源系统是中国能源行业低碳化转型的重要支撑。为保证含氢综合能源系统中的氢能供给并提高用氢效率,该文提出了一种电气混合制氢及氢能综合利用的综合能源系统运行模式;并基于碳捕集装置和综合需求响应建立了源荷互补降碳机制,以充分挖掘系统降碳潜能,进一步提升可再生能源消纳率及系统低碳化水平;此外,为了对含氢综合能源系统中的源荷随机波动实现快速响应,提出基于乐观行动-评判深度强化学习方法对系统优化调度模型进行离线训练和在线优化求解,可高效实现含氢综合能源系统的低碳经济在线优化调度。最后通过算例应用验证了所提方法的优越性。

储能提升高比例新能源基地低碳-经济-可靠性能的效益分析

储能具备灵活的功率调节与电能时移能力,其与系统多类型调控资源的协调优化有望为新型电力系统低碳、经济、可靠运行提供有力支撑。针对储能提升高比例新能源基地低碳、经济、可靠性能的效益进行研究。首先,建立了高比例新能源基地发电碳排放计量模型,提出高比例新能源基地低碳、经济、可靠性能量化评估指标;其次,建立了储能与高比例新能源基地的联合运行模拟模型,为含储能高比例新能源基地的优化运行提供决策依据;最后,针对蒙西区域电网开展全年时间尺度精细化运行模拟,分析不同储能容量配比下对系统低碳、经济、可靠运行性能的提升效益。算例结果验证了所提运行模拟模型的有效性,并指出随储能容量提升其对系统低碳、低碳、经济及可靠性能提升的边际效益逐步下降,优化制定储能配置容量有利于最大化其投资运行效益。

计及富氧燃烧-P2G耦合的综合能源系统低碳研究

在双碳目标背景下,为了实现火电机组的低碳化改造,提高电力系统的运行经济性,提出一种富氧燃烧-P2G耦合的优化调度策略。将富氧燃烧技术引入综合能源系统,构建富氧燃烧-P2G协同运行框架与两段式电制氢模型,研究富氧燃烧电厂的能量时移特性,富氧燃烧技术可以实现CO_(2)和O_(2)的循环利用,同时引入阶梯式碳交易机制以约束系统碳排量;调用CPLEX求解器对不同场景的总成本以及碳排放量进行求解分析,仿真结果表明所提出的优化调度模型在促进可再生能源消纳的同时兼顾了经济性和低碳性。

基于风电-碳捕集电力系统的灵活性调峰策略

高比例风电并网增大了电力系统调峰负担,因此亟需提高电力系统调峰灵活性,助力新型电力系统低碳-零碳化的发展。分析碳捕集电厂优良的调峰性能及其用于调峰辅助服务的必要性,并论证碳捕集电厂低碳特性在碳交易中发挥的积极作用,由此提出碳捕集电厂灵活性调峰的运行策略,并阐述所提策略的低碳性与经济性。构建以电力系统综合成本最优为目标的风电-碳捕集调度模型,并基于此模型对比不同灵活运行方式下碳捕集电厂的低碳性能与经济效益。最后,在改进的IEEE 39节点系统中进行仿真,结果验证了所提模型可有效协调调峰资源,在满足电力系统调峰需求的同时降低系统的碳排水平与运行成本。

考虑时空扩散和碳汇的碳捕集-电转气协同优化调度模型

传统的低碳经济调度只考虑碳排放源问题,而没有考虑碳排放去向问题。因此,在碳捕集-电转气的协同运行模式基础上,同时考虑碳排放源和碳排放去向问题,提出了自由二氧化碳浓度(FCDC)的概念。针对不同生态地理环境的碳汇差异,考虑二氧化碳排放的大气扩散和地面植被碳汇的作用,构建自由二氧化碳浓度分布模型。然后,以平均自由二氧化碳浓度最小和总运行成本最小作为目标函数,建立碳捕集-电转气协同运行的低碳经济调度模型。最后,通过算例仿真验证了所提协同优化调度模型的有效性,可在保证经济效益的同时减少碳排放。

计及源荷不确定性和碳捕集虚拟电厂的电-气互联系统优化调度

在电-气综合能源系统的基础上,加入碳捕集系统以及储碳系统,构建碳捕集-电转气-风电-气电虚拟电厂联合运行模型,分析联合运行模式相较于碳捕集电厂独立运行的优势。其次,考虑风电、负荷的不确定性带来的影响,通过引入模糊参数,建立计及源荷不确定性的模糊机会约束模型,分析不确定性对于碳捕集能力的影响。最后,基于改进的IEEE-39节点系统和天然气20节点算例系统,通过GUROBI求解器验证所提碳捕集虚拟电厂联合运行模型在考虑风电和负荷不确定性下可有效消纳风电、降低系统的碳排放。

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative R&D and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational R&D cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.

计及P2G-CCS和柔性负荷的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

为了降低系统的碳排放量和挖掘用户侧负荷参与系统调度的响应能力,文中提出一种含P2G-CCS和柔性负荷的综合能源系统日前低碳经济调度模型。首先,引入P2G-CCS-燃气供热系统协作的运行框架,P2G设备利用捕集到的CO_(2)作为原料,生成的天然气输送到燃气供热系统;其次,考虑用户侧负荷的可平移、可转移、可削减负荷特性,通过分时电价和分时气价引导柔性负荷参与调度;最后,建立以总运行成本为最小的综合能源系统日前优化调度模型,仿真算例使用CPLEX进行求解。通过3种场景对比分析得出,P2G-CCS和柔性负荷的运行策略能有效降低系统的碳排放,提升系统运行的经济性,实现了综合能源系统低碳经济运行。

Human Resource Management Theory in the Context of Economic Development Transformation from the Perspective of the Social Productive Forces

This paper explores the development of the human resource management theory from the perspective of social productive forces,deeply analyzing the development of the current social productive forces and the characteristics of the socio-economic development.It can be concluded that the development of the human resource management theory is closely related to the socio-economic development pattern.The twenty first century is a knowledge-driven era,and"eco-friendly"and"low-carbon"are the basic characteristics of the socio-economic development of the era of the knowledge-driven economy,which has great influence on the subject,aim and content of human resource management.Green human resource management conforms to the trend of the transformation of the socio-economic development.Based on the management of"human",it creates an eco-friendly,low-carbon and sustainable environment for enterprises,which promotes the transformation from extensive growth to intensive growth of the macro management of enterprises.

考虑超碳需求响应的综合能源系统低碳优化调度

西北地区新能源发展迅速,充分利用当地独有的光热资源优势,同时结合火电低碳化改造与新能源协同运行,有利于推动当地能源系统绿色低碳转型。为尽最大限度地提升系统的减碳能力,提出一种基于源荷协同降碳的超碳需求响应模型,将动态碳排放因子作为分时电价的惩罚因子,从而将源侧碳信号传递至荷侧,驱使用户侧进行低碳性状态转移。首先,在日前调度阶段,构建预调度-再调度两阶段调度运行机制,再调度根据预调度的系统状态信息进行超碳需求响应,来深度降低系统碳排量。其次,将光热电站引入综合能源系统,与风电场、碳捕集电厂协同运行,从而构建高比例新能源场景,来验证超碳需求响应在此场景下的减碳效益。最后,建立了基于超碳需求响应的预调度-再调度两阶段低碳调度模型。经算例仿真分析表明,所提源荷协同降碳的新思路能有效提高系统的减碳能力,深入挖掘系统的降碳空间,提升系统的经济效益。

含碳捕集电厂与氢能多元利用的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

随着中国“碳达峰·碳中和”战略的不断推进,综合能源系统的绿色低碳转型迫在眉睫。针对传统碳捕集电厂灵活性较差、风电并网难以消纳等问题,提出一种含碳捕集电厂与氢能多元利用的综合能源系统低碳经济调度模型。首先,引入储液罐对传统碳捕集电厂进行改造,提高电厂应对风电波动的运行灵活性;其次,构建含两段式电转气、氢燃料电池、储氢罐和掺氢热电联产在内的氢能多元利用结构,以充分挖掘氢能利用与碳捕集电厂的协同运行潜力。在此基础上,引入阶梯碳交易机制,建立以碳交易、碳封存、燃煤及购气成本之和最小为优化目标的低碳经济调度模型。算例结果表明,文中模型能够有效提高系统的风电消纳水平和能源利用效率,具有显著的低碳经济效益。此外,碳交易基准价格的合理设定能够引导系统提高碳捕集水平。

储液式CCS耦合P2G的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

为应对电转气P2G(power-to-gas)和碳捕集系统CCS(carbon capture system)在可再生能源出力不足时耦合失效的问题,考虑对常规CCS引入CO_(2)储液罐以加强P2G和CCS的耦合。首先,构建储液式CCS和P2G的耦合模型,利用储液罐将CCS捕集的CO_(2)时移至可再生能源富足时段,供P2G再利用;其次,构建储液式CCS与P2G耦合的电热气综合能源系统日前优化调度模型;最后,以北方某工业园区为例进行仿真。结果证明所提模型可以充分利用CCS捕集的CO_(2),从而获得更好的经济和环境效益。

低碳转型能否推动区域协调发展?——来自“低碳城市”建设的经验证据

实施区域协调发展战略是实现共同富裕,推进中国式现代化的关键路径。基于2006-2019年中国243个地级及以上城市的面板数据,运用双重差分法系统考察了低碳转型对区域协调发展的影响及其作用机制,研究发现:低碳城市建设能显著缩小非中心城市与中心城市的经济差距,而且对于整体发展水平较低、工业依赖型和距离中心城市较近的城市,在缩小与中心城市的经济差距方面有更明显的影响。低碳城市建设缩小区域经济差距的主要传导机制来自城市产业低碳转型、技术创新能力的增强与人力资本的流入。这意味着低碳转型有助于实现“碳中和”与区域协调发展的“双赢”目标。为统筹推进绿色低碳发展和共同富裕,要建立绿色低碳转型的区域协作机制,加快产业绿色低碳升级改造,以低碳转型为契机加强人才引进等。

低碳试点城市工业碳排放脱钩状态及驱动因素研究

基于工业碳排放测算,采用Tapio脱钩模型及LMDI模型对我国首批低碳试点城市2013—2020年的工业脱钩现状及工业碳排放驱动因素进行分析。研究表明:厦门、杭州、重庆、贵阳在2013—2020年已实现一定程度上的工业碳减排及与工业经济发展间的绝对脱钩状态,南昌虽较2013年工业碳排放量有所增加,但当前已实现工业上的弱脱钩状态,天津虽实现一定程度上的工业碳减排,但尚未实现脱钩,处在增长连接状态,深圳和保定则处于扩张负脱钩状态。能源强度效应和人口规模效应主要促进各地碳减排,产出规模效应则表现为主导性的工业碳排放促进因素。各地需加快工业产业优化,加大技术研发,提高工业产业劳动生产率,落实强化工业碳减排对工业产业发展的引领作用。