To achieve the goals of national sustainable development,the peaking control of CO2emissions is pivotal,as well as other pollutants.In this paper,we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies an...To achieve the goals of national sustainable development,the peaking control of CO2emissions is pivotal,as well as other pollutants.In this paper,we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations.By analyzing the energy consumptions,coal consumptions,relating emissions and their impacts on GDP,we found that with the structure adjustment policy,the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53%to 48%and CO2emissions will decrease by 11.3%e22.8%compared to the baseline scenario.With the energy intensity reduction policy,CO2emissions will decrease by 33.3%in 2030 and 47.8%in 2050 than baseline scenario.Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects.In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control,the economic costs can not be ignored.The GDP will decrease by 2.96%e8.23%under different scenarios.Therefore,integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.展开更多
With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and empl...With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Fund of China(71173206)the Strategic Priority Research ProgramdClimate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05150300)
文摘To achieve the goals of national sustainable development,the peaking control of CO2emissions is pivotal,as well as other pollutants.In this paper,we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations.By analyzing the energy consumptions,coal consumptions,relating emissions and their impacts on GDP,we found that with the structure adjustment policy,the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53%to 48%and CO2emissions will decrease by 11.3%e22.8%compared to the baseline scenario.With the energy intensity reduction policy,CO2emissions will decrease by 33.3%in 2030 and 47.8%in 2050 than baseline scenario.Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects.In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control,the economic costs can not be ignored.The GDP will decrease by 2.96%e8.23%under different scenarios.Therefore,integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.
基金funding of National Natural Science Foundation of China(72173043)Rockefeller Brothers Fund(21-200).
文摘With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.
