Dynamical Framework of IAP Nine-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Simple General Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Models with Memory

This article examines some general atmospheric circulation and climate models in the context of the notion of “memory”. Two kinds of memories are defined： statistical memory and deterministic memory. The former is defined through the autocorrelation characteristic of the process if it is random （chaotic）, while for the latter, a special memory function is introduced. Three of the numerous existing models are selected as examples. For each of the models, asymptotic （at t →∞） expressions are derived. In this way, the transients are filtered out and that which remains concerns the final behaviour of the models.

High Resolution Global Modeling of the Atmospheric Circulation

An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models, The focus is on results obtained recently with versions of the GFDL SKYHI model and the Atmospheric Model for the Earth Simulator （AFES） global atmospheric models. These models have been run with effective horizontal grid resolution of -10-40 km and fine vertical resolution. The results presented demonstrate the utility of such models for the study of a diverse range of phenomena, Specifically the models are shown to simulate the development of tropical cyclones with peak winds and minimum central pressures comparable to those of the most intense hurricanes actually observed, More fundamentally, the spectrum of energy content in the mesoscale in the flow can be reproduced by these models down to near the smallest explicitly-resolved horizontal scales, in the middle atmosphere it is shown that increasing horizontal resolution can lead to significantly improved overall simulation of the global-scale circulation, The application of the models to two specific problems requiring very fine resolution global will be discussed, The spatial and temporal variability of the vertical eddy flux of zonal momentum associated with gravity waves near the tropopause is evaluated in the very fine resolution AFES model, This is a subject of great importance for understanding and modelling the flow in the middle atmosphere, Then the simulation of the small scale variations of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation is analyzed, and the signature of significant topographic modulation of the semidiurnal atmospheric tide is identified.

Study on the Model between the Occurrence Area of Grasshopper and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation in Western Aletai

By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of grasshopper and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in western Aletai from 1991 to 2008,the atmospheric circulation factors which had the significant relationship with the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were screened.The prediction models for the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were established by stepwise regression method,and the models obtained were also tested.These models were subsequently utilized to carry out extended prediction on the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties of western Aletai from 2009 to 2010.Meanwhile,the relationship between the atmospheric circulation factors and the occurrence area of grasshopper were analyzed.The results provided the theoretical basis for the prediction on grasshopper plague.

The African Climate as Predicted by the IAP Grid-Point Nine-Layer Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-9L-AGCM)

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Numerical Modelling of the Effects of Ozone on the Summer Atmospheric Circulation

The effects of ozone on the summer atmospheric general circulation are simulated by use of a zonal model with the pesigma coordinate system. Results show that the simulated properties at the upper levels are remarkably improved after the ozone effects are introduced to the model. The direct effect of ozone is to enhance the heating rates at the upper levels. In the lower atmosphere. this effect is very little. Furthermore, the ozone can change the distributions and values of other components of heating fields, resulting in the change of the total heating rates, and meanwhile induce evident variation of atmospheric circulation at the lower levels.

Relationship between Rice Planthopper Occurrence Area in China and Atmospheric Circulation Indices

[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.

Primary Reasoning behind the Double ITCZ Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.

Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL)

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.

A Study on Sulfate Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Forcing Using LASG-IAP General Circulation Model

The direct radiative forcing （DRF） of sulfate aerosols depends highly on the atmospheric sulfate loading and the meteorology, both of which undergo strong regional and seasonal variations. Because the optical properties of sulfate aerosols are also sensitive to atmospheric relative humidity, in this study we first examine the scheme for optical properties that considers hydroscopic growth. Next, we investigate the seasonal and regional distributions of sulfate DRF using the sulfate loading simulated from NCAR CAM-Chem together with the meteorology modeled from a spectral atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） developed by LASG-IAP. The global annual-mean sulfate loading of 3.44 mg m-2 is calculated to yield the DRF of -1.03 and -0.57 W m-2 for clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. However, much larger values occur on regional bases. For example, the maximum all-sky sulfate DRF over Europe, East Asia, and North America can be up to -4.0 W m-2. The strongest all-sky sulfate DRF occurs in the Northern Hemispheric July, with a hemispheric average of -1.26 W m-2. The study results also indicate that the regional DRF are strongly affected by cloud and relative humidity, which vary considerably among the regions during different seasons. This certainly raises the issue that the biases in model-sinmlated regional meteorology can introduce biases into the sulfate DRF. Hence, the model processes associated with atmospheric humidity and cloud physics should be modified in great depth to improve the simulations of the LASG-IAP AGCM and to reduce the uncertainty of sulfate direct effects on global and regional climate in these simulations.

The Effect of Mesoscale Flows on Regional Atmospheric Transport in a Complex Terrain

Model results simulated over a complex terrain under a synoptically calm condition, using a three-dimensional (3-D) regional-scale meteorological acid deposition model (RMADM), show that thermally induced mesoscale circulations (MCs): sea-and land-breeze circulations and up- and down-slope flow circulations play a fundamental role in determining how the pollutants being dispersed . Analysis showed that under synoptically calm condition, the role played by the MC would dilute the smoke released during the early stage of the emission; the accumulation, however, would become important if the synoptically calm condition lasts long. Since the structure and intensity of the MCs depend on geography and topographical allocation, land surface coverage, incoming solar radiation intensity and so on, it makes the estimates of source-reception relationship and long-range atmospheric dispersion more difficulty. It concluded that it is impossible for a pollution model to correctly simulate smokes transport using only the synoptic station data, since the mesoscale information can not be resolved from these datasets.

INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY IN A MODEL ATMOSPHERE

By using the simulation results of an AGCM, which had been run from 1945 to 1993 forced by COADS SST, the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere was investigated and compared with that of NCEP reanalysis data. It was found that, interdecadal variability exists significantly in both the tropical Pacific wind fields and the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation of the model atmosphere. The tendency of time variation and spatial distributions of the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere are basically consistent with observation. Relative to the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation, the simulation of tropical Pacific wind is more satisfying, which suggests that anomalous variation of SST is still the main factor for the interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific wind. It might have more significant influence on the tropical wind than on the mid-high latitude atmosphere. However, there is still obvious difference between the simulation and observation. They could be attributed to both the simulation capability of the model and absence of other factors in the model which are important for the interdecadal climate variation.

Coupling the Common Land Model to ECHAM5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.

Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center

The performance of BCC （Beijing Climate Center） AGCM 2.0.1 （Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1） in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation （TIO） is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 （Community Atmosphere Model version 3） results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM （version 1） and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the original prognostic variables of temperature and surface pressure become their departures from the reference atmosphere.A new Zhang-McFarlane convective parameterization scheme is incorporated into the model with a few modifications.Other modifications include those in the boundary layer process and snow cover calculation.All simulations are run for 52 yr from 1949 to 2001 under the lower boundary conditions of observed monthly SST.The TIOs from the model are analyzed.The comparison shows that the NCAR CAM3 has a poor ability in simulating the TIO.The simulated strength of the TIO is very weak.The energy of the eastward moving waves is similar to that of the westward moving waves in CAM3.While in observation the former is much larger than the latter.The seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO produced by CAM3 are also much different from the observation.The ability of the BCC AGCM2.0.1 in simulating the TIO is significantly better.The simulated TIO is evident.The strength of the TIO produced by the BCC AGCM2.0.1 is close to the observation.The energy of eastward moving.waves is much stronger than that of the westward moving waves,which is consistent with the observation.There is no significant difference in the seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO between the BCC model simulation and the observation.In general,the BCC model performs better than CAM3 in simulating the TIO.

Effects of Nested Area Size upon Regional Climate Model Simulations

This paper presents a numerical study on the 1998 summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in central and eastern China, addressing effect of a nested area size on simulations in terms of the technique of nesting a regional climate model (RCM) upon a general circulation model (GCM). Evidence suggests that the size exerts greater impacts upon regional climate of the country, revealing that a larger nested size is superior to a small one for simulation in mitigating errors of GCM-provided lateral boundary forcing. Also, simulations show that the RCM should incorporate regions of climate systems of great importance into study and a low-resolution GCM yields more pronounced errors as a rule when used in the research of the Tibetan Plateau, and, in contrast, our PσRCM can do a good job in describing the plateau’s role in a more realistic and accurate way. It is for this reason that the tableland should be included in the nested area when the RCM is employed to investigate the regional climate. Our PσRCM nesting upon a GCM reaches more realistic results compared to a single GCM used.

Modelling the January and July Climate of 9000 Years before Present

The January and July climate of 9000 years before present was simulated through a set of perpetual experimentsby means of the newly designed 9 Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) in the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The results were analysed and compared with previous results simulated by the IAP 2Level AGCM. There exists good agreement between them. It is found that the temperature is higher in July and lower inJanuary in 9000 yBP than that at present. The temperature difference is more obvious in the Northern Hemispherethan in the Southern Hemisphere and greater in July than in January. These results prove the potential abilities of theg-L AGCM in the climate simulation and climate prediction.

NEW METHOD FOR LOW ORDER SPECTRAL MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

In order to overcome the deficiency in classical method of low order spectral model, a new method for low order spectral model was advanced. Through calculating the multiple correlation coefficients between combinations of different functions and the recorded data under the least square criterion, the truncated functions which can mostly reflect the studied physical phenomenon were objectively distilled from these data. The new method overcomes the deficiency of artificially selecting the truncated functions in the classical low order spectral model. The new method being applied to study the inter-annual variation of summer atmospheric circulation over Northern Hemisphere, the truncated functions were obtained with the atmospheric circulation data of June 1994 and June 1998. The mechanisms for the two-summer atmospheric circulation variations over Northern Hemisphere were obtained with two-layer quasi-geostrophic baroclinic equation.

区域海气耦合模式WON在东南亚低纬高原一次强降水事件模拟中的应用

为改善东南亚低纬高原区(LLHSA)降水模拟的性能,提高降水预报准确性,本文采用大气环流模式WRF(4.2版)和海洋分量模式NEMO(3.4版),用耦合器OASIS3-MCT进行桥接,得到区域海气耦合模式WRF-OASIS-NEMO(WON)。大气和海洋分量模式都配置成相同的Arakawa-C网格,水平空间分辨率设为0.25°,耦合频次设置为逐小时,便于模拟海洋和大气环流相耦合的中尺度运动特征。为评估WON模式的模拟性能,选取2020年8月16-18日的强降水过程为例,与单独WRF模式的模拟效果进行比较分析。WON和WRF模式模拟的降水大值区位于高原东北部和中西部地区,平均日降水量约为20 mm·d^(-1),与观测事实基本相符。WON模式改善了WRF模式在高原南部降水偏多而在高原西北部降水偏少的模拟偏差。WON模式改善了降水动力条件的模拟效果,在高原中南部气旋式环流增强,在高原西侧反气旋式环流增强,进而改善了WRF模式在高原南部周围降水偏少,高原西北部降水偏多的模拟偏差。WRF和WON模式均能再现垂直螺旋度的发展特征,即在对流层中低层为正垂直螺旋度发展,而在对流层高层为负垂直螺旋度发展。两个模式在雨带西部400 hPa高度层附近垂直螺旋度模拟偏强,而在600~700 hPa高度层上垂直螺旋度模拟偏弱。WON模式相对于WRF模式的改进区域主要集中在雨带中西部地区。本次强降水的水汽来源包括孟湾的西南水汽输送和中国南海的偏南水汽输送。WRF模式和WON模式均能较好地重现相关水汽通量特征。WRF模式在孟湾北部水汽辐合偏强,而在中国南海水汽向北输送偏弱。WON模式主要改善了WRF模式在中国南海水汽输送偏弱的模拟偏差。WON模式改善降水模拟效果的主要原因是孟湾海表热通量交换导致孟湾中低层大气偏冷偏干,大气对流活动减弱,在孟湾北部形成的低层反气旋偏差改善了本次强降水过程动力条件和水汽条件的模拟效果。

大气环流因子对黄河流域长预见期农业干旱预测性能的影响

准确的干旱预测对于减轻或规避干旱对区域粮食生产和水资源配置的不利影响至关重要。大气环流因子可能会通过遥相关影响农业干旱的发生、发展和传递过程,在干旱预测模型中引入大气环流因子是否会改善农业干旱的预测性能尚不明晰。该研究以农业干旱、高温和大气环流因子为预测因子,在不同预见期(1、12、24、36、48个月)下采用Meta-Gaussian(MG)模型预测黄河流域典型年份的农业干旱事件,通过纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,NSE)和均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)探究在MG模型中引入大气环流因子对农业干旱预测性能的影响。结果表明:大气环流因子中12个月时间尺度的标准化西太平洋副高强度指数(standardized western Pacific subtropical high intensity index,SWPSHI)与农业干旱相关性最为显著;以典型年2014年8月份为例发现MG模型预测值受预见期长度、预测因子影响较大;相比于单因子预测,引入大气环流因子的MG模型的评价指标NSE和RMSE改善网格占比最高达46%,空间上在内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、陕西等省区1 a以上预见期明显改善,而考虑大气环流因子和高温的MG模型进一步提升了模型的预测性能,扩大了网格占比。因此在上述省区干旱预测时需考虑大气环流因子的影响。