Prediction on Failure Pressure of Pipeline Containing Corrosion Defects Based on ISSA-BPNNModel

Oil and gas pipelines are affected by many factors,such as pipe wall thinning and pipeline rupture.Accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas pipelines can provide technical support for pipeline safety management.Aiming at the shortcomings of the BP Neural Network(BPNN)model,such as low learning efficiency,sensitivity to initial weights,and easy falling into a local optimal state,an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm(ISSA)is adopted to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNN,and an ISSA-BPNN failure pressure prediction model for corroded pipelines is established.Taking 61 sets of pipelines blasting test data as an example,the prediction model was built and predicted by MATLAB software,and compared with the BPNN model,GA-BPNN model,and SSA-BPNN model.The results show that the MAPE of the ISSA-BPNN model is 3.4177%,and the R2 is 0.9880,both of which are superior to its comparison model.Using the ISSA-BPNN model has high prediction accuracy and stability,and can provide support for pipeline inspection and maintenance.

Development of an integrated dynamic model for supply security and resilience analysis of natural gas pipeline network systems

An integrated dynamic model of natural gas pipeline networks is developed in this paper.Components for gas supply,e.g.,pipelines,junctions,compressor stations,LNG terminals,regulation stations and gas storage facilities are included in the model.These components are firstly modeled with respect to their properties and functions and,then,integrated at the system level by Graph Theory.The model can be used for simulating the system response in different scenarios of operation,and evaluate the consequences from the perspectives of supply security and resilience.A case study is considered to evaluate the accuracy of the model by benchmarking its results against those from literature and the software Pipeline Studio.Finally,the model is applied on a relatively complex natural gas pipeline network and the results are analyzed in detail from the supply security and resilience points of view.The main contributions of the paper are:firstly,a novel model of a complex gas pipeline network is proposed as a dynamic state-space model at system level;a method,based on the dynamic model,is proposed to analyze the security and resilience of supply from a system perspective.

Risk analysis and maintenance decision making of natural gas pipelines with external corrosion based on Bayesian network

Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.

Two-stage robust optimization of power cost minimization problem in gunbarrel natural gas networks by approximate dynamic programming

In short-term operation of natural gas network,the impact of demand uncertainty is not negligible.To address this issue we propose a two-stage robust model for power cost minimization problem in gunbarrel natural gas networks.The demands between pipelines and compressor stations are uncertain with a budget parameter,since it is unlikely that all the uncertain demands reach the maximal deviation simultaneously.During solving the two-stage robust model we encounter a bilevel problem which is challenging to solve.We formulate it as a multi-dimensional dynamic programming problem and propose approximate dynamic programming methods to accelerate the calculation.Numerical results based on real network in China show that we obtain a speed gain of 7 times faster in average without compromising optimality compared with original dynamic programming algorithm.Numerical results also verify the advantage of robust model compared with deterministic model when facing uncertainties.These findings offer short-term operation methods for gunbarrel natural gas network management to handle with uncertainties.

Optimal design of the gas storage surface pipeline system with injection and withdrawal conditions

Underground natural gas storage(UNGS)is an important part of the natural gas supply system to ensure a balanced energy supply.The surface system,as an important part of the gas storage,undertakes the functions of gas injection and gas production of the gas storage,and its investment economy is of vital importance.In fact,the UNGS surface pipeline network has two-way injection and production characteristics,which is different from the one-way production characteristics of conventional oil&gas gathering and transportation systems.This paper takes the minimum investment of the pipeline network as the objective function,considers the gas injection and gas withdrawal flow conditions and esablishes a mixed integer non-linear programming model(MINLP)for the surface pipeline network of the UNGS to optimize its pipeline layout and diameter parameters.Constraints including the well affiliation,the number of stations,the gathering radius,the processing capacity and the flow/pressure equilibrium equations,are also taken into consideration.Taking an UNGS in China as an example,the results of the optimal structure and diameter of the pipeline network,as well as the pipe flow,node pressure,and maximum/minimum flowrate during gas injection and gas withdrawal are obtained.Finally,the effects of constraints such as processing capacity and radius on the structure layout and investment of the UNGS are analyzed,verifying the reliability and effectiveness of the model.