Introduction of a New Cycle in Replacement of Metonic: An Ideal Solution towards a Deviation Free Luni-Solar Calendar

Molad is simply an interval between two successive new moon timelines with respect to the line joining the Sun and the Earth i.e., with respect to the Sun as seen from the Earth, which in scientific terms is referred as lunation or “synodic lunar month”. Though synodic lunar month may vary by up to ±0.7 days locally, the length of mean synodic lunar month is constant over a long period of time and is a crucial value in determining the luni-solar calendar’s new months similar to Hebrew calendar’s “Rashei Hodesh”. Based on the Metonic cycle the luni-solar Hebrew calendar adds 07 intercalary months in 19 solar years. This hypothesis proposes a new cycle instead of the Metonic cycle towards eliminating the deviation of the calendar incurred in the long course of time. The research analyzed that application of the conventional Metonic cycle to luni-solar calendar is erroneous, which theoretically leads Hebrew calendar to absorb extra 11 days (approx.) by 2053 years after inception. The study pointed out that through the application of 2116 - 2053 lunar-solar years cycle instead of 235 - 228 lunar-solar months based Metonic cycle, formulation of a far better high precession luni-solar calendar is possible and also both lunar and solar sides of the luni-solar calendar became fully balanced and harmonized.

基于阴阳历叠加的中长期天气预报方法

采用在阴阳历叠加的基础上进行修正的方法,利用环渤海地区和青藏高原东北部地区1960-2010年地面测站降水、风速资料,探讨了阴阳历叠加法进行中长期天气预报的可行性.结果表明:对于不同地区,不同要素阴阳历叠加预报时最佳样本长度略有差异,降水预报时环渤海地区最佳样本长度为37 a,青藏高原东部地区最佳样本长度为20 a;对大风天气过程而言,环渤海地区最佳样本长度为34 a,青藏高原东北部地区为31 a.降水日预报检验表明,环渤海地区和青藏高原东北部地区降水日预报威胁评分(TS)呈单峰型变化,峰值均集中在夏季,6-8月降水日预报TS评分均高于0.4,两地各月降水日预报TS评分均高于气候概率.利用站点相关订正后,准确率最高可提高14.2%,最低提升了4.1%,平均提高9.8%,站点相关订正是有效的.两地大风预报准确率呈现单峰型分布特征,并在3-5月间为明显的波峰,且两地的预报TS评分均高于气候概率TS评分,预报是有效的.

一个自动确定指针的阴阳历叠加程序

从实际预报出发 ,根据阴阳历之间的关系 ,用 Turbo C语言编写了一个能够灵活、快速自动确定指针的阴阳历叠加程序 。

基于阴阳历叠加的中长期天气预报方法检验

针对重庆市永川地区汛期(5～9月)降雨与春秋冬季降温天气过程,采用永川地区1957-2016年的历史资料,用阴阳历叠加的方法对2017年天气过程进行预报,同时根据2017年的天气实况进行检验,结果表明:(1)预报2017年汛期降雨过程30次,其中暴雨过程13次;预报春季降温4次,秋季降温6次,冬季降温5次。(2)经实况检验,汛期实况暴雨发生6次,5次预报准确,1次预报量级偏低,对小雨的预报量级普遍偏高;实况降温10次,预报准确6次,漏报4次。阴阳历叠加的中长期预报方法大体上能反映主要的降雨、降温过程,具有一定的可信度,可为提前做好防灾减灾工作提供一定的参考,但存在一定的空报、漏报、错报率,实际工作中需要结合短临预报等其他预报手段进行修正,能得到更好的预报效果。