In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is,...In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.展开更多
The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, th...The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.展开更多
文摘In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.
基金This research is supported by Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.
