MACRO ECONOMY

IMF:China economy to continue rapid growth China's economic growth will slow down this year and next,but it is expected to reach 9.7 percent and 9.3 percent respectively,accord- ing to World Economic Outlook,released by International Monetary Fund(IMF)on October 8. The report says China's economic growth in the first half will lower than the same period of last year due to such factors as the slowing export growth,but the economy will remain vibrant boosted by the increase in the investment and steady co...

Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)in 2020,China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect.This paper,based on Energy,Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model(TECGE),a dynamic computable general equilibrium model,carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China's future macro economy.By setting up four scenarios,namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons,10.7 billion tons,10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030,2027,2025,and 2023,it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy.The findings show that,compared with the 2030 benchmark,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the higher the carbon tax prices,and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables,such as aggregate consumption,aggregate imports and exports decline,the share of the tertiary industry increases.That is,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the more macroeconomic variables decline,and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises.This paper,using computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect,makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.

The Influence of Financial Markets on Countries＇ Economic Life

This working paper aims to investigate one of the most present markets in whole economic life： financial market. Even if not everyone is playing on financial market, the result of trading on this markets can be seen and felt by any participant on economic life--individuals, businesses, and government. Those which are participating and trading on financial markets influence economic and social life in a way or another. The paper comes to showing how existence and trading on financial markets can change the money supply and behavior of individuals, businesses, and later they can affect entire economic and social life. The author uses financial data provided by international database such as： Eurostat, central banks, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, BMI Research, website of domestic ministries of finance, and/or economy. The research concluded that in those countries where there is an active and experienced financial market, with a huge volume of transactions, also exists a financial and fiscal stability. Unemployment rate is lower, and a higher level of confidence of investors. A very active financial market can also help governments to maintain their balance of payment in equilibrium and/or to accelerate the development of productive capacity, and for raising and maintaining social stability level.