The New Normal of China's Macroeconomic Policy

This paper summarizes the theoretical background and realistic considerations for the emergence of the new normal of macro policy. The characteristics of the new normal of macro policy are as follows: 1) a supply-side approach in response to growth slowdown; 2) understanding economic heterogeneity and growth disequilibrium and paying attention to structural regulation; 3) highlighting strategic planning and broadening the horizon of macro policy; 4) re-establishing a benchmark of macro policy and re-initiating local competition; 5) balancing the interests of various stakeholders and understanding the political economy of macro policy; 6) respecting the spillover effects of major countries and implementing responsible macro policies; 7) respecting "market determinism" and recognizing the limitations of macro policy; and 8) propelling institutional developments and creating a basic framework of macro policy. This paper concludes that the new normal of macro policy is not simply a passive adjustment to the new normal of economy but represents an initiative of proactive response that steers the economy towards a more advanced form. In particular, the following issues should be clarified in current macro policy: some of the characteristics will be corrected or phased out, some that coincide with the new normal will be abreast with the times, and some require that a new trail be explored through innovation of macro policy. These components will constitute the basic framework for China's macro policy to transition towards the new normal.

Crowding-in or Crowding-out:How Infrastructure Investment Affects Household Consumption

This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases wealth inequality in the long term.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidences for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.