Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review

In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.

Impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading

The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises,which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock transactions.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to2018,we study the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading.The results show that macroeconomic policy uncertainty helps restrain the opportunistic trading of shares held by management.When macroeconomic policies are uncertain,enterprises improve their internal governance.Furthermore,strengthening equity governance helps reduce management’s opportunistic use of the uncertainty of the policy environment,highlighting the advantageous effect of macroeconomic policy uncertainty and helping regulators standardize managerial behavior and promote the governance effect of macroeconomic policy.

Analysis of China's Overheated Economyand Macroeconomic Policy Options

Based on macroeconomic analysis since 2003, this article holds that a trend towardsoverheating has surfaced in Chinas economy. Chinas rapid economic expansion hasaffected the quality of its growth, with rising material and energy consumption and imbalancedeconomic structure as the main manifestations. Regarding macroeconomic policy options in2004, decision-makers should shift the policy focus from control of deflation to preventionof inflation; the pace of economic growth should be properly set; a balance betweenconsumption and investment should be strengthened by controlling excessive expansion ofinvestment, and industrial restructuring should be conducted in a coordinated manner onthe basis of properly controlling the overly rapid industrial growth; policies should becontinued to boost exports and sustainable growth of foreign investment; and more effortsshould be made to accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth.

Haste Makes Waste： Policy Options Facing China after Reaching the Lewis Turning Point

This paper provides a framework for assessing the health of China＇s macro economy and the sustainability of economic growth by combining supply-side and demand-side factors and by considering their relationship at different stages of development. As the Chinese economy passed through its Lewis turning point, weakened supply-side factors caused its growth to slow. The increasing concern regarding the economic slowdown has induced both the central and local governments to implement various stimulus plans through instruments of macroeconomic, industrial and regional policies. By examining where the imbalances of the Chinese economy really lie and investigating the determinants of the current slowdown and of the enhancement of the potential growth rate, the present paper suggests that the best path of action for the Chinese Government is not to stimulate growth through demand-side factors but to increase the potential growth rate through reforms in certain key areas.