Variation Character of Grain Yield per Unit Area in Main Grain-producing Area of Northeast China

Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.

Increasing Subsidies to Main Grain Production Area——Necessity of the Rejuvenation of Northeast China

As an old industrial base, Northeast China is one of the most important grain production base. To rejuvenate Northeast China, it is necessary to strengthen farming products processing, lengthen industrial chain and develop sustainable agriculture.

Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China

A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.

Measurement of Grain Production Efficiency in Main Grain-producing Areas and Analysis of Inter-provincial Differences--A Study Based on Super-SBM Model and Malmquist Index

China's food security mainly depends on the core areas of food production.Under the dual constraints of resource scarcity and environmental degradation,improving the grain production efficiency of the main grain-producing areas has become the fundamental way to strengthen the grain production capacity and improve the national food security capability,and to improve the efficiency of grain production in major grain-producing areas requires empirical support.This paper used the Super SBM model and the Malmquist index to measure the grain production efficiency of the main grain-producing areas from 2001 to 2020 from both static and dynamic perspectives,and compared the differences in grain production efficiency among different soil types and different provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas.The results showed that from 2001 to 2020,the grain production in the main grain-producing areas was in a relatively ineffective state,and the differences in grain production efficiency among different soil types and different provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas were obvious.The order of grain production efficiency in different soil types was black soil region>red-yellow soil region>paddy soil region>fluvo-aquic soil region,and the order of grain production efficiency of the provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas was Jilin>Heilongjiang>Inner Mongolia>Jiangxi>Hunan>Sichuan>Hubei>Jiangsu>Liaoning>Henan>Anhui>Shandong>Hebei.From 2001 to 2020,the total factor productivity of grain in the main grain-producing areas increased,but due to the trade-off between the technological progress and the growth of technical efficiency,the increase in the total factor productivity of grain in the main grain-producing areas was small,and the growth mainly came from the increase of input factors in this period.The total factor productivity of grain in Hebei,Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,Jiangsu,Henan and Anhui increased,but the increase was small,while the total factor productivity of grain in Jiangxi,Sichuan,Hunan and Hubei provinces declined.

Industrial Policy Analysis of Restricted Development Zones in Western China——A Study of State-level Main Producing Areas of Agricultural Products and Key Ecological Functional Areas

As one of the important policies of promoting the formation of main functional areas, the industrial policy directly determines the sustainable growth of space control ability of main functional areas. A restricted development zone is a type of main functional area which provides agricultural products and ecological products, assures the supply of national agricultural products and the stability of ecosystems, as well as safeguards the ecological functions and agricultural functions of wider regions by restricting its own development. Therefore scientific, complete and operable industrial policy support is needed. Restricted development zones are distributed widely in western China. With the restriction of their main functions, differential industrial policies should be implemented in the development of the restricted development zones: Dealing well with the relationship between industrial development and ecological protection, developing special industries which are friendly to resources and environment and appropriate for local conditions, guiding and encouraging industries to learn from regions with favorable development conditions, orderly withdrawing industries and enterprises adverse to main functions, facilitating industrial structure upgrading, optimizing industrial organization, improving industrial technological level and rationalizing industrial layout.

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to westem China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China＇s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the add and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that fi.trther studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China＇s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.

Ideas and Countermeasures for Perfecting Rural Public Product Supply from the Perspective of Main Beneficiaries

On the basis of defining the concept of rural public product supply, the weaknesses of the supply mechanism of rural public product are analyzed. The shortages of rural public product supply lead to the difficult ties in developing agriculture and rural economy; enriching farmers and narrowing the urban and rural income gap. Problems in rural public product supply are further analyzed. Firstly, the national finance used in agriculture is low. Secondly, farmers are not separated from decision system and the beneficiaries separate from the decision-makers. Thirdly, farmers are not fully treated as civilians. Fourthly, rural areas lack the selection and supervision mechanism of public product. The ideas and countermeasures on perfecting rural public product are put forward from the perspective of main beneficiaries. The supply of rural public product should take intensifying the self development capability of farmers as core; farmers should actively participate in the making the rural public product decision and fight for their right to say. Farmers should unit together through organizations to improve the organizational level. Farmers should actively participate in trainings on them and try to get the updated information from the local government. The village collective should protect the supply of rural public product.

绿色金融赋能主产区粮食生产的高质量发展双效应研究

粮食主产区以粮食生产为中心,被赋予国家粮食安全的重大责任和率先推进农业农村现代化的艰巨任务,必须加快主产区粮食生产的高质量发展。基于此,构建以粮食生产为中心的经济循环系统理论分析框架,利用2012—2021年省级面板数据,采用固定效应、中介效应和门槛效应模型,实证检验绿色金融赋能主产区粮食生产的高质量发展“双效应”。结果显示,绿色金融赋能一方面通过粮食生产的要素改造、行为转变和产品升级产生直接效应,另一方面通过消费市场粮食产品生态化和价值化导向需求响应行为产生间接效应。研究表明,绿色金融赋能粮食生产高质量发展既具有金融工程的项目性质,可以利用不同的绿色金融工具实施;又具有区域经济系统的整体性和复杂性,需要利用不同的绿色金融工具组合及其功能创新才能实现,以防止和规避主产区以粮食生产为中心的经济循环“梗阻”现象。

生产集聚对粮食生产用水绿色效率的影响研究--以我国粮食主产区为例

基于2002-2021年我国13个粮食主产区的省级面板数据,运用区位基尼系数和Super-SBM模型对粮食主产区粮食生产集聚度和粮食生产用水绿色效率分别进行测度,在此基础上通过面板模型探究粮食生产集聚对粮食生产用水绿色效率的影响,并利用中介效应模型对路径机制进行检验。结果表明:研究期内我国粮食主产区粮食生产集聚度整体呈上升趋势,粮食生产用水绿色效率呈现“北高南低”的空间分布状态且整体无明显改善。粮食生产集聚度与粮食生产用水绿色效率呈“倒U形”关系,规模化经营和种植结构调整在“倒U形”关系中发挥中介效应且规模化经营的中介效应更大,科技创新的中介效应不显著。因此政府应因地制宜制定合理的粮食生产集聚政策,引导农户、组织及企业适度规模经营,提高种植结构的合理性,建立粮食生产集聚与技术创新的高效联动机制,促进粮食生产用水绿色效率的提升。

财政激励下主产区粮食低碳生产“稳中求进”策略——基于演化博弈模型的分析

2022年“中央一号文件”提出要牢牢守住保障国家粮食安全这条底线,而提升粮食综合生产能力是国家粮食安全、有效防范和抵御各类风险挑战、促进粮食生态可持续发展和推动农业领域碳排放目标的重要保障。本文以提升粮食综合生产能力、粮食低碳可持续发展能力的财政专项补贴为激励手段,构建粮食主产区政府、粮食生产者和社会组织三方演化博弈模型,通过模拟仿真分析在不同财政激励程度下对提升粮食综合生产能力、粮食低碳生态可持续发展能力的政策影响。研究结果表明:三方博弈主体在财政激励影响下,最终可达到粮食主产区政府激励、粮食生产者支持和社会组织保障的稳定均衡状态。故此,应强化粮食增产财政激励、加强财政转移支付精度、优化财政资金导向作用和注重粮食保障财政倾斜等发展策略,实现粮食低碳生产“稳中求进”。

双碳目标下粮食主产区农业绿色生产效率测度及空间分布

论文根据2003~2022年我国粮食主产区农业投入产出的面板数据,运用面板三阶段DEA模型测度粮食主产区的农业绿色生产效率,并对该区域农业绿色生产效率的空间分布作分级分析。研究发现:在去除环境因素和随机误差等因素对效率值的干扰后,人均GDP和人均可支配收入的增加均有利于提高农业绿色生产效率,自然灾害受灾面积的增加会阻碍农业绿色生产效率的提升。进一步分析发现,粮食主产区的农业绿色生产综合技术效率和规模效率均呈现出南北低、中间高的空间分布趋势,农业绿色生产纯技术效率值都比较高,空间分布上比较集中。为进一步提升粮食主产区的农业绿色生产效率及优化其空间分布格局,应优化财政支农资金投向,鼓励新型农业经营主体适度规模经营,差异化举措提升农业绿色生产效率,缩小区域农业绿色发展差距。

新时期我国主销区粮食安全的认识维度、矛盾诊断和破解路径

为提升重大突发公共安全事件下主销区粮食安全保障能力,厘清产销区省域粮食生产能力与空间变迁情况,进一步提升新时期全国统一大市场背景下国家粮食安全治理能力和长效机制。利用ArcGIS技术结合统计分析方法,以全国粮食主产区、主销区、产销平衡区为研究对象,对新中国成立以来粮食产量和面积进行空间演化分析,并对2011—2023年主产区粮食调出率进行计算。结果发现,全国粮食净调出地更加集中于黑龙江、河南、山东、安徽四省,而作为传统粮食调出大省的四川、江苏、湖北、湖南粮食调出率却不断下降,甚至出现“销区化”倾向。我国粮食安全局面存在“区域非均衡加强”“产销错配”“粮饲错配”等结构性问题,产销跨省域运距过长及常态化成本较高,物流通道之间基本相互独立、互通性和连接性较差。鉴于此,提出应在大食物观下,进一步压实主销区保障一定自给率要求,重点提高主销区粮食生产和应急储备能力,建立粮食“产销”跨区域协作长效保障机制;提升主销区粮食主体内生积极性,规避“运动式”的生产方式。

粮食主产区“三生”功能与粮食生产可持续发展

基于粮食主产区国家粮食安全战略和美丽中国建设行动,构建粮食主产区“三生”功能与粮食生产可持续发展的理论框架,采用耦合协调模型实证检验粮食生态经济系统“三生”功能对粮食生产可持续发展的影响。结果表明:1)粮食主产区“三生”功能具有耦合协调效应,耦合协调行为是促进粮食生产可持续发展的有效途径;2)粮食主产区“三生”功能的高耦合度匹配着高耦合协调度,高耦合协调度契合着可持续发展的高水平;3)当前粮食主产区粮食生态经济系统“三生”功能耦合协调发展整体处于“初级协调”的演化阶段,呈现初期阶段的递增态势特征和区域异质性特征。据此,建议通过粮食生态经济系统的要素赋能增强“三生”功能的耦合动力,加快推进美丽中国建设等增强“三生”功能的耦合推力,遵循“三生”功能的异质性特征推动主产区粮食生态经济系统的合作竞争,瞄准新平衡点助推“三生”功能高阶演进。

邻里效应对农户粮食生产托管的影响——基于河南省周口市617户小麦种植户的经验证据

本文以粮食主产区河南省617户小麦种植户为研究对象,构建邻里效应对农户粮食生产托管影响的理论分析框架,采用线性均值模型、中介效应模型和分组回归模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明,邻里效应对农户小麦托管行为具有显著的正向影响,考虑内生性问题和进行稳健性检验后,结果依旧显著。作用机制检验表明,邻里效应通过观察性学习、风险规避和降低签约成本等路径提高农户的粮食生产托管程度。此外,邻里效应在不同农户群体和作业环节的影响存在异质性,具体表现为:与高收入农户和规模户相比,邻里效应对低收入农户和小农户的作用更大;在耕地、播种和收割等作业效益显示度高的环节,邻里效应的作用更明显。根据研究结论,本文提出扩大农业生产托管示范户样点、降低农户采纳服务的风险预期和签约成本以及扶持生产托管服务的薄弱环节发展等建议。

中国粮食主产区农业水贫困与粮食生产脆弱性的时空耦合研究

为厘清粮食主产区农业水资源与粮食生产的协调适配关系,促进二者协同发展进而增强我国粮食生产韧性,本研究构建了农业水贫困和粮食生产脆弱性评价指标体系,借助主客观赋权法、耦合协调度模型、全局莫兰指数和基尼系数,分析了2006—2019年粮食主产区农业水贫困、粮食生产脆弱性及二者耦合协调关系的时空演变特征。结果表明:2006—2019年农业水贫困程度降低了30.45%,南方降幅高于北方,整体呈现北高南低的态势;粮食生产脆弱性降低了71.99%,北方降幅高于南方,整体呈现南高北低的态势;农业水贫困与粮食生产脆弱性的耦合协调度上升了21.99%,区域差异趋于缩小,但始终保持北高南低的态势。据此,本研究提出了降低农业水贫困和粮食生产脆弱性、提升两个系统耦合协调发展的路径。

农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响

基于2004—2020年中国内地30个省市面板数据,在运用熵值法测算出我国农业高质量发展水平的基础上,通过动态面板和门槛效应模型对农村人口老龄化促进农业高质量发展的效果和机制进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:农村人口老龄化能够显著提高农业高质量发展水平,其促进效应在粮食主产区内要强于产销平衡区内,而在主销区内,这一促进效应则并不显著。对农业高质量发展分维度异质性分析后发现:农村人口老龄化通过改善农业高质量发展中农业发展水平、资源条件、经济条件以及技术条件,促进农业高质量发展水平的提高;通过抑制环境条件的改善,阻碍农业高质量发展水平的提高。最后,门槛效应检验结果表明:农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的促进效应会随着农业高质量发展水平的提高而得到进一步的增强。

中国东部沿海粮食主销区小麦生产现状分析与发展对策——以浙江省宁波地区为例

小麦是中国重要的粮食作物,对维护国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于中国东部沿海粮食主销区小麦面积、单产和总产等相关数据,结合小麦品种和病害发生情况,分析当前小麦生产发展中存在的主要制约因素。结果表明,当前东部沿海主销区小麦产业中存在生产成本高、天气多变、小麦病害重等导致减产减收制约因素。为提高中国东部沿海主销区粮食自给率以及综合生产能力,针对生产中存在的问题,从加强小麦生产政策扶持、提升小麦耕地生产能力、研发与推广先进种植管理技术、提高技术推广到位率、推动小麦生产规模化高效化发展等方面,提出了促进中国东部沿海粮食主销区小麦及粮食生产发展的对策建议。

“双碳”目标下粮食主产区农业绿色生产效率研究--以安徽省为例

【目的】探究“双碳”和粮食安全双重目标约束的农业绿色生产效率及其影响因素,为提高农业绿色生产效率和实现“双碳”目标提供科学支撑和政策参考。【方法】以我国粮食主产区安徽省为例,基于2011—2020年16个市的面板数据,通过构建DEA模型、Malmquist指数模型和Tobit模型,从时序和空间角度对农业绿色生产效率进行静态分析和动态评估,并分析其关键影响因素。【结果】安徽省农业绿色生产综合效率为0.593,呈现南高北低的空间分布格局;纯技术效率为0.808,呈现中间高两边低的空间分布规律;规模效率为0.731,呈现中间低两边高的分布规律。农业绿色全要素生产率不断提高,呈现中间高两边低的空间分布规律;大部分地区在农业绿色生产的资源利用和规模投入方面存在不同程度冗余,导致其效率未达到生产最优;耕地面积和农业机械化能够显著提高农业绿色生产效率,而城镇人口比重和受灾情况则显著降低农业绿色生产效率。【结论】安徽省农业绿色生产效率总体水平不高,且不同地区之间存在差异,耕地面积和农业机械化是影响农业绿色生产效率的积极因素。

南方丘陵山区耕地“非粮化”特征及其形势与对策探究——以湘西土家族苗族自治州为例

【目的】防止耕地“非粮化”对促进耕地可持续利用具有重大意义。丰富对不同地区耕地“非粮化”特征、形势和形成原因的认知,可为制定有效的耕地“非粮化”管控策略提供科学依据,为更好地防治耕地“非粮化”提供基础。【方法】本研究以遥感数据、社会经济空间数据集等为基础,采用空间分析与空间统计等方法探究湘西州2000—2015年的耕地“非粮化”时空格局特征,并在此基础上尝试分析湘西州耕地“非粮化”的形势与相应的对策。【结果】1)2000年以来,湘西州耕地非粮化率在39%~47%之间浮动,呈现出以2010年为节点先缓慢降低后快速升高的规律,且呈现出较明显的时空分异特征。2)随着时间推移,耕地“非粮化”低—低、高—高类型的空间在不断扩大,说明耕地“非粮化”存在较强的空间自相关性。3)在城市周边较易发生耕地“非粮化”现象,另外,距离县城10 km~25 km、人口密度较小的山区,耕地非粮化率出现了快速增加的现象。【结论】在治理耕地“非粮化”的时候需要结合区位、人口、地形等因素优化农业产业布局,以避免耕地“非粮化”的无序扩张;应当把耕地“非粮化”管控向非食物化管控方向调整,并且明确耕地转型应当以耕地质量保护为前提,即在不破坏耕地质量的前提下进行食物种植结构调整,以协调人民追求美好生活、保护耕地和生态安全的多重目标需求。

粮食主产区耕地生态安全动态评价及农技推广的研究进展

以粮食主产区为研究对象,探讨了耕地生态安全的动态评价方法,构建了初步的指标体系,应用多种评价模型,精确地模拟生态系统的变化趋势。提出的不同地域和生态系统类型的耕地生态安全动态评价方法、发展决策支持系统、改进数据收集和处理技术或将成为未来一段时期的研究重点。研究强调了农技推广在粮食主产区耕地生态安全动态评价中的重要作用以及未来的研究方向和挑战。