Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.

Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China

A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.

Study on Fluctuation of Grain Yield in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.

Variation Character of Grain Yield per Unit Area in Main Grain-producing Area of Northeast China

Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.

Agricultural Ecological Zoning Plan of Old Industrial Bases in Liaoning Province, China

On the basis of brief description of current situation of old industrial bases and primary industry of Liaoning Province, the paper introduces the general situation of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. First, the ecological bases of agricultural zoning plan are introduced through various topographic and geomorphic types, regional climate differences and imbalanced distribution of natural resources; Second, in accordance with the theory of comparative advantage, distribution of production and resource economics, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation of agricultural natural resources, with the principle of fully excavating economic function of different natural resources, and in order to improve allocation efficiency of the two resources of market and government, the formation of ecological zoning plan of agriculture in Liaoning Province is analyzed; Third, according to Regional Layout Planning of Characteristic Agricultural Products of Liaoning Province (2006-2010), the paper describes basic layout of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. The policy support of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province is analyzed from three aspects-support policy of functional zone major in producing grain, support policy of other characteristic agriculture-ecological zone and support measures of development of agriculture-ecological zone. The paper also analyzes experiences of agricultural development of old industrial bases in ecological zoning plan: First, agriculture-ecological zoning plan is a effective way of the revitalization of old industrial bases; Second, scientificity of plan is the basis of improving competitiveness of regional agriculture; Third, multi-input mechanism guiding by government is the key of agricultural packing effect; Fourth, integrated agricultural industrial chain is guarantee of realizing industrialization in ecological zone.

中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率区域差异及影响因素——基于179个地级市的实证研究

[目的]粮食主产区在实现粮食稳产保供中具有重要的战略地位。研究粮食主产区的耕地利用效率及其时空演变特征,旨在为促进粮食主产区耕地资源高效利用、保障粮食安全及实现农业可持续发展提供参考。[方法]创新性地运用两阶段动态网络DEA模型,测算粮食主产区2010—2020年179个地级市耕地利用效率,并通过ArcGIS可视化技术和核密度估计分析其时空演变特征,构建Tobit模型并探究耕地利用效率影响因素。[结果]2010—2020年粮食主产区整体效率水平呈“小幅下降—快速上升—波动增长”的阶段趋势,整体效率水平偏低,仍具有较大提升空间。分阶段来看,生产阶段效率水平始终高于消费阶段,且两阶段效率水平差距有进一步增大的态势;粮食主产区耕地利用效率提升受两阶段效率水平共同作用的影响,生产阶段是效率提升的主要动力,阻力来自于消费阶段效率。分区域来看,松花江流域>长江流域>黄河流域的耕地利用效率,区域不均衡性显著。从空间上来看,整体效率、生产阶段效率高值区呈东北—西南空间分布,并逐渐形成“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间格局,消费阶段效率高值区呈离散化分布格局,并未呈现出向提升方向收敛的发展态势。整体、生产阶段和消费阶段的外部影响因素不尽相同,涉及社会经济发展水平、城乡发展水平、科技水平及农业基础设施建设。同时不同因素对不同区域的整体及各子阶段耕地利用效率作用强度及作用方向也存在显著差异。[结论]未来粮食主产区不但要探索区域差异化耕地利用路径,加强各地级市间合作,更要在提升生产阶段效率的同时,重点关注各地级市消费阶段效率提升收敛速度以及与生产阶段效率差距之间的协调。

东北粮食主产区农户主导型农村土地流转价格影响因素

分析各因素对农村土地流转价格的影响方向与作用强度可为确定土地承包经营权流转价格提供依据。该文以黑龙江省农村固定观察点14个村的转入方农户为样本,采用相关性分析和多元线性回归方法分别确定单因素与多因素对流转价格的影响,并对比分析各因素对高于均价组和低于均价组中流转价格的影响差异。结果表明:1)单因素对流转价格的影响分析中,耕地粮食产量对流转价格产生显著正向影响,是影响流转价格最重要的因素;2)多因素对流转价格的影响分析中,耕地粮食产量、村域经济发达程度、县域交通通达性、户主年龄对流转价格产生显著正向影响,县域人均GDP、与市中心距离对流转价格产生显著负向影响;3)对比各因素对高于均价组和低于均价组的影响,发现交通通达性、与市中心距离对高于均价组流转价格的影响方向与总样本一致,这些因素对低于均价组流转价格的影响方向与总样本相反。需明确耕地信息、了解地区经济与交通情况,为确定土地流转价格、完善农村土地流转市场创造条件。

东北粮食主产区农户宅基地流转意愿及影响因素分析——基于依安县300户农户的调查

为调查东北粮食主产区农村宅基地的流转意愿对于治理东北农村高"空心化"问题和保障粮食安全的影响,通过对黑龙江省依安县300个农户样本数据的统计,利用Logistic回归模型,定量分析出对农村宅基地流转意愿及其影响因素。研究结果表明:东北粮食主产区农户宅基地流转意愿较低。东北粮食主产区农户在宅基地流转中既有"经济理性"的衡量,也有"生存理性"的考量。东北粮食主产区农户宅基地流转的影响因素有典型的区域特征,主要集中在家庭人口数量、常住人口数量、农户拥有的宅基地数量、宅基地闲置情况和户主年龄等几个方面。东北粮食主产区农村宅基地流转还应该加强政策引导。

基于SFA的中国粮食主产区小麦生产技术效率分析

为促进我国粮食主产区粮食单产水平的稳步提高及确保粮食安全,利用中国粮食主产区1998-2008年10年面板数据,基于随机前沿生产函数(Stochastic Frontier Analysis,SFA)方法测算中国主产区小麦生产的技术效率。结果表明,中国主产区小麦生产的技术效率整体呈上升趋势,地区差异明显。应扩大主要粮食作物的播种面积,加强良种培育和示范推广,进一步提高科技转化效率。

华北平原玉米主产区不同养分调控方式对农田生态系统健康的影响——以河南省获嘉县为例

以河南省获嘉县的粮食主产区为例,采用主成分分析法对不同养分调控措施农田生态系统健康影响进行评价。主要评价指标体系涉及了土壤物理、化学、生物性状以及作物指标,共17个指标。结果表明,玉米秸秆还田和小麦秸秆还田都可以明显改善土壤的物理性质;而对土壤化学性质的影响较为复杂,但总体上有利于土壤有机质的积累和速效养分的提供与保持;有机肥的施用,使土壤的物理性质、化学性质和生物性状方面都得到一定程度的改善。

全国视域下的粮食主产区农业全要素生产率实证分析——基于1998-2012年省际面板数据

基于1998-2012年省际面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法,测算全国、粮食主产区和各省份农业全要素生产率,进而分析粮食主产区农业全要素生产率的时空差异。研究表明,粮食主产区农业全要素生产率增长速度略快于全国平均水平;全国和粮食主产区农业全要素生产率增长,都源于技术进步的推动,而技术效率则起制约作用;粮食主产区内各子区域之间和省份之间农业全要素生产率增长速度和增长源泉均存在较大差异。

东北黑土区水土流失危害及其防治途径

该文在分析东北黑土区水土流失现状、危害的基础上,论述了水土保持工作在黑土区商品粮基地建设中的地位和作用。笔者最后提出了黑土区防治水土流失的途径及措施。

东北粮食主产区耕地生态效率评价及影响因素分析

生态效率是评价资源投入、经济产出和环境污染的重要指标。文章基于粮食生产视角探究东北粮食主产区黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省耕地生态效率,通过超效率SBM模型进行测算,并采用Malmquist指数对效率进行分解,根据Tobit回归模型分析影响耕地生态效率的显著因素。研究结果表明:2009-2018年,东北粮食主产区三省耕地效率值偏低,但整体处于上升态势,吉林省与辽宁省耕地生态效率提升潜力较大;在影响因素方面,政府规制、财政支农水平、农业机械总动力对效率的提升具有正向影响,农用化学品投入对效率的提升具有负向影响,因此,应推进规模经营、促进农业技术发展、优化资源配置效率,建立绿色发展粮食主产区。

对东北粮食主产区建设为生态农业基地的现实论证

东北地区作为国内重要的粮食主产区,在传统的农业生产模式向现代的生态农业模式转变上,应根据自身的条件,因地制宜,合理开发。根据东北粮食主产区建设生态农业基地的基础条件,可以认定东北粮食主产区建设生态农业基地的区域价值,并且可以东北粮食主产区建设生态农业基地的国内外对比为参照系对东北粮食主产区建设生态农业基地有针对性地提出对策。

基于两维图论聚类法的东北地区土地利用分区研究

土地利用分区是土地利用总体规划的基础和关键内容,对于确定区域未来土地利用方向、制定土地利用结构与空间布局调整策略,实现区域土地差异化管理与可持续利用具有重要意义。本文通过构建表征粮食主产区土地利用"本底-现状-潜力"三维状态的指标体系,运用两维图论聚类法对东北地区184个县级行政单元进行土地利用分区研究,并提出差异化的土地利用调控措施。结果表明:土地利用"本底-现状-潜力"三维评价指标体系可以清晰地反映土地利用的自然本底条件、开发现状和未来发展潜力特征;两维图论聚类法和GIS定性分析法相结合得到的东北地区土地利用分区结果具有较好的空间连续性和区划完整性;将东北地区划分为城市综合发展区(3个)、土地利用区(2个农牧、1个农林和1个农林牧)和林农生态区(5个),针对不同类型区采取不同的土地利用指标调控措施。

中部粮食主产区增量经济型土地整理水土重构技术研究

研究目的:寻求适合中部粮食主产区土地整理的增量经济型的水土重构施工阶段的技术体系。研究方法:归纳分析法、文献比较法和理论分析法。研究结果:提出了土壤重构技术施工阶段的增量经济型目标及其技术需求;评价筛选出了适合中部粮食主产区增量经济型土地整理特点的土壤重构技术施工关键技术;按施工先后顺序组配形成了中部粮食主产区增量经济型土地整理项目土壤重构技术施工阶段综合技术体系。研究结论:不同整理区的区域特点、土地整理需求具有较大的差异,水土重构技术也应因地制宜,本文的研究成果可用来指导中部粮食主产区乃至全国范围内的土地整理中的水土重构项目。

2008-2016年中国粮食主产区增产的区域差异研究

文章从国家、区域、省级单元三个层面对中国近9年的粮食生产状况进行量化分析,构建粮食生产变化模型,量化近年来中国不同尺度上粮食增产因素.研究结果表明:1)近9年来中国粮食已经提前实现新增500亿kg生产能力的目标,国内粮食产量能够满足全国粮食消费量,粮食主产区在实现国家粮食安全保障中承担重要作用;2)主产区区域层面上粮食主产区的三个地区粮食贡献存在较大区域差异;3)近9年来在国家层面、区域层面和省级层面上粮食增产原因各异.

中国粮食作物种业企业空间格局及其影响因素

文章基于中国4119家粮食作物种业企业数据,采用最近邻指数、核密度估计、空间热点分析及Tobit回归分析等方法,探究了中国粮食作物种业企业的空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国粮食作物种业企业总体呈现出“东多西少—低密高疏—区域差异显著—集聚特征明显”的空间分布格局。(2)总体样本企业及分类作物种业企业密度空间表现出“异质性—多核心”特征,冷热点区集中连片且分层明显。(3)中国粮食作物种业企业的空间分布主要受产业基础、城市综合实力和技术因素的影响,且深度依赖于地形、气温和降水等自然条件。(4)在多种因素的共同作用下,中国粮食作物种业企业主要分布于农业资源丰富、农业产业优势明显、自然条件适宜的粮食主产地,综合实力强、规模等级高的直辖市和省会城市,以及创新要素集聚效应突出、创新产出规模优势明显、交通条件便利的地区。

生产要素视角下粮食主产区利益补偿机制研究——以东北粮食主产区为例

为保障粮食主产区的粮食生产能力和农民的经济收益,函须构建省际横向的粮食主产区利益补偿机制。本文以东北粮食主产区为例,运用多区域投入产出模型确定粮食省际流通格局,基于生产要素视角核算粮食生产要素消耗量,通过改进功能价值法测算生产要素的利益补偿额度,以明确利益补偿标准,进而多维度构建省际横向的粮食主产区利益补偿机制。研究发现:第一,广东、浙江、山东、北京、上海、贵州、天津、江苏、海南、福建和广西是东北粮食主产区粮食生产的受益省份,需要向东北粮食主产区进行利益补偿。第二,2000一2020年东北粮食主产区生产要素消耗发生了明显变化,其中,耕地资源消耗量和水资源消耗量增长近1倍,农业碳收支量和粮食运输损耗量均增长了近2倍。第三,仅从生产要素消耗角度考虑,2020年东北粮食主产区粮食作物种植的利益补偿标准为580.37亿元。因此,粮食主产区在粮食生产过程中隐含着巨大的生产要素消耗,有必要将粮食生产过程中的生产要素消耗等投入成本纳入主产区利益补偿范畴。

粮食主产区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展耦合协调评价——以东北地区为例

粮食主产区产业振兴是实现乡村振兴的基础与关键,对农业高质量发展具有显著影响。以粮食主产区东北地区为研究区域,采用耦合协调模型分析东北地区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调发展水平,选用2014—2023年东北地区产业链供应链韧性相关数据,构建基于东北地区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调度模型。结果表明,东北地区的产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调度由原来的轻微失调转变为目前的良好协调。基于此,提出构建协同发展共建共享机制与协同评价机制的建议,以期推动粮食主产区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展深度耦合。