Modeling of cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making

An approach for modeling a human cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making is presented. The recognitive and metacognitive processes that represent the cognitive framework are modeled by the colored Petri nets （CPNs）. A structural and behavioral analysis method is adopted to obtain the static and dynamic property used to verify the CPNs model of the cognitive framework. Finally, an example from the command and control radar recognition system is used to evaluate the feasibility and availability of the CPNs model adopted in practical systems.

Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

Selection of Wind Turbine Systems for the Sultanate of Oman

The Sultanate of Oman has been dealing with a severe renewable energy issue for the past few decades,and the government has struggled to find a solution.In addition,Oman’s strategy for converting power generation to sources of renewable energy includes a goal of 60 percent of national energy demands being met by renewables by 2040,including solar and wind turbines.Furthermore,the use of small-scale energy from wind devices has been on the rise in recent years.This upward trend is attributed to advancements in wind turbine technology,which have lowered the cost of energy from wind.To calculate the internal and external factors that affect the small-scale energy of wind technologies,the study used a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution.As a result,in the decision model,four criteria,seventeen sub-criteria,and three resources of renewable energy were calculated as options from the viewpoint of the Sultanate of Oman.This research is based on an examination of statistics on energy produced by wind turbines at various locations in the Sultanate of Oman.Further,six distinct miniature wind turbines were investigated for four different locations.The outcomes of this study indicate that the tiny wind turbine has a lot of potential in the Sultanate of Oman for applications such as homes,schools,college campuses,irrigation,greenhouses,communities,and small businesses.The government should also use renewable energy resources to help with the renewable energy issue and make sure that the country has enough renewable energy for its long-term growth.

Effect of Time Pressure at Tactical Level Managing Disaster

Introduction: Disaster management can face to emergency situation without any pre-sign and even if it has forecast they can meet the requirements of improvisation making their decision. Improvisation can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the time press is certainly the biggest problem. This article focuses on tactical level and shows some method to compensate time press. Method: Author studied relevant literatures and used own ex-perience as a firefighting manager. Other studies made by the author previously were also used. Results: Without time press disaster managers can use analytical thinking but in case of time press they must prefer critical thinking, satisfactory procedures or management by exceptions but creativity and heuristics are also used in their decision. Author created a complex model of decision making in emergency: building on prac-tical experience the above mechanisms together with the internal triggers hold as pillars the recognition-primed decisions on which locate the principals of disaster man-agement.

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling（RSM） methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool（VAT） for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 〈 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.

An Information Fusion Model of Innovation Alliances Based on the Bayesian Network

To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.

New Model of MINI COOPER Makes Its North China Debut

Beijing Yanbao Automobile Service Co.delivered the updated MINI COOPER to its first buyer in north China on May 28,at a ceremony in the Goldport Motor Park in Chaoyang District.