Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Using Return and Risk Model for Choosing Perfect Portfolio Applied Study in Cairo Stock Exchange

Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.

A Monte Carlo-based framework for risk-return analysis in mineral prospectivity mapping

Quantification of a mineral prospectivity mapping(MPM)heavily relies on geological,geophysical and geochemical analysis,which combines various evidence layers into a single map.However,MPM is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of understanding of the metallogenesis and limited spatial data samples.In this paper,we provide a framework that addresses how uncertainty in the evidence layers can be quantified and how such uncertainty is propagated to the prediction of mineral potential.More specifically,we use Monte Carlo simulation to jointly quantify uncertainties on all uncertain evidence variables,categorized into geological,geochemical and geophysical.On stochastically simulated sets of the multiple input layers,logistic regression is employed to produce different quantifications of the mineral potential in terms of probability.Uncertainties we address lie in the downscaling of magnetic data to a scale that makes such data comparable with known mineral deposits.Additionally,we deal with the limited spatial sampling of geochemistry that leads to spatial uncertainty.Next,we deal with the conceptual geological uncertainty related to how the spatial extent of the influence of evidential geological features such as faults,granite intrusions and sedimentary formations.Finally,we provide a novel way to interpret the established uncertainty in a risk-return analysis to decide areas with high potential but at the same time low uncertainty on that potential.Our methods are illustrated and compared with traditional deterministic MPM on a real case study of prospecting skarn Fe deposition in southwestern Fujian,China.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investment. By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return, together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investment is established. The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

A Study on Equivalence of Return-risk and Risk-return Models for Investment Strategies

1 Introduction It is known that the Capital Asset Pricing Model was first proposed by Markowitz and he was awarded the Nobel Prize

Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risks in Yopougon, Abidjan, Southeast Côte d’Ivoire from 1971 to 2022

Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.

第三方负责回收的Downside-Risk闭环供应链协调性研究

以风险中性制造商、第三方物流服务商和具有下行风险特性的销售商组成的闭环供应链系统为背景,证明了在Downside-Risk约束下收益费用共享契约不能使闭环供应链协调。通过将补偿策略附加到该契约,设计了风险共享契约,既能满足下行风险约束,又保证供应链参与方利润均有增量,实现了Downside-Risk约束下闭环供应链的协调。最后通过应用算例说明了风险共享契约的有效性和可行性。

risk analysis

According to the developing of international trade,people began to pay more attention on foreign currency and its exchange.Currency risk is coming into being with changes in foreign exchange value,which affect the return on loan or investments by other currencies.So,at this time,people will think about how to control the currency risk,that is risk analysis.In my opinion,risk analysis is the actions of man-

Joint Occurrence Period of Wind Speed and Wave Height Based on Both Service Term and Risk Probability

Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values.This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis.The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized.Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk.Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea.The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods.Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field.

Impact of the COVID‑19 outbreak on the US equity sectors:Evidence from quantile return spillovers

The aim of this study is to examine the extreme return spillovers among the US stock market sectors in the light of the COVID-19 outbreak.To this end,we extend the now-traditional Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to the quantiles domain by building networks of generalized forecast error variance decomposition of a quantile vector autoregressive model specifically for extreme returns.Notably,we control for common movements by using the overall stock market index as a common factor for all sectors and uncover the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the dynamics of the network.The results show that the network structure and spillovers differ considerably with respect to the market state.During stable times,the network shows a nice sectoral clustering structure which,however,changes dramatically for both adverse and beneficial market conditions constituting a highly connected network structure.The pandemic period itself shows an interesting restructuring of the network as the dominant clusters become more tightly connected while the rest of the network remains well separated.The sectoral topology thus has not collapsed into a unified market during the pandemic.

@Risk软件在工程项目不确定性分析和风险分析中的运用

基于某新建铜冶炼项目的初步财务模型,运用@Risk软件对其财务内部收益率和净现值的分布情况进行模拟,分析不确定性因素和风险因素对项目经济效益的影响程度,为投资者决策提供参考依据。模拟结果显示,原料供应的风险是影响项目效益的首要因素,其次是铜加工费TC。因此,要实现项目的经济效益,首先应确保原料来源,其他风险因素对财务内部收益率和净现值的影响排序不一致,但比较敏感的风险种类基本相同,决策者可以根据自己期望的目标采取合理的风险应对策略。

Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

Flood risk assessment of check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed on the Loess Plateau of China

Check dams have been widely used in China’s Loess Plateau region due to their effectiveness in erosion and flood control.However,the safety and stability of the check dam decrease with the operation process,which increases the probability of dam failure during flood events and threatens local residents’ life and property.Thus,this study simulated flood process of the check dam failure in the Wangmaogou watershed in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province,China,calculated different types of inundation losses based on the flood inundation area within the watershed,and determined the number of key flood protection check dams by classifying the flood risk levels of the check dams.The results showed that 5 dams in the watershed were subject to overtopping during different rainfall return periods,which was related to their flood discharge capacity.Dam failure flood process showed a rapid growth trend followed by slow decrease,and the time of flood peak advanced with increase in the return period.After harmonization of evaluation scales,the magnitude of flood inundation losses can be ranked as:economic losses(212.409 million yuan) > life losses(10.368 million yuan) > ecological losses(6.433 million yuan).The risk value for both individual dams and the whole dam system decreases as the return period increases.The number of key flood protection check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed was 2,3,3,3,4,and 5 for floods with return periods of 10,20,30,50,100,and 200 years,respectively.The results provided a theoretical basis for the safe operation and risk evaluation of check dams in the Loess Plateau Hills watershed.

Determination of the Financing Scale,Time Limit and Returns from the Investment in BOT Projects

The key aspect to the successful implementation of BOT concept is the raising of finance by project sponsor,so financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity.The capital structure and present a model to determine the equity level from the aspects of financing scale,construction time and return on investment are analyzed.The resulting model can help the sponsor to avoid the capital risk,and offer the government a criterion to evaluate management ability of the sponsor.To show the application and availability of this model,a case study is conducted.Thus,this paper is concern with the determination of financing scale,construction time,and return on investment which would assist the sponsor to ensure that the equity level for optimal capital structure is available prior to the implementation stage in BOT project operation.

Today＇s Risks and Difficulty of Chinese Commercial Banks

According to the Top 1,000 world banks released by the British authoritative magazine The Banker, the profits made by Chinese banking industry in 2011 had accounted for one-third of the global banking profits, and nearly 100 banks had been included in the Top 1,000 world banks list. This proves that China＇s commercial banks have been standing in the forefront of the world. While achieving such impressive results, China＇s risks and uncertainties due to the constraints of the internal and external environment cannot be ignored. Those risks are mainly about the risks of the over-estimation of the expected return for financial products, the high credit concentration, as well as the seldom use of financially derivative products. Therefore, it is difficult to avoid risks by the portfolio management, which restricts the further improvement of the competitiveness of commercial banks.

An Evaluation of the Effect of Credit Risk Management （CRM） on the Profitability of Nigerian Banks

This paper assesses the effect of credit risk management （CRM） on the profitability of Nigerian banks with a view to discovering the extent to which default rate （DR）, cost per loan asset （CLA）, and capital adequacy ratio （CAR） influence return on asset （ROA） as a measure of banks＇ profitability. Data were generated from secondary sources, specifically, the annual reports and accounts of quoted banks from 2002 to 2011. Descriptive statistics, correlation, as well as random-effect generalized least square （GLS） regression techniques were utilized as tools of analysis in the study. The findings establish that CRM as measured by three independent variables has a significant positive effect on the profitability of Nigerian banks as indicated by the coefficient of determinations ＂R2 value＂ which shows the within and between values of 40.89% and 58.35% （which are impressive） while the overall R2 iS 43.91%, indicating that the variables considered in the model account for about 44% change in the dependent variable, that is, profitability. The study recommends that banks＇ management should be more scientific （application of risk evaluation techniques） in their credit risk assessment and management of loan portfolios in order to minimize the high incidence of non-performing loans and their negative effect on profitability.

恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.

儿童肝移植受者重返重症监护室的危险因素分析

目的探讨儿童肝移植受者重返重症监护室(ICU)的危险因素,为儿童肝移植术后临床决策提供参考。方法回顾性分析2019至2021年上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院接受肝移植手术后所有转入ICU患儿的临床资料,统计住院期间重返ICU的情况,以及重返的原因。以1∶3比例匹配未发生重返ICU的患儿作为对照组,比较两组患儿基本信息、移植后转出ICU当天的生命体征及各项实验室指标、免疫抑制剂种类及药物浓度等。采用多因素Logistic回归分析探讨儿童肝移植受者重返ICU的危险因素。结果儿童肝移植术后ICU重返率为4.36%,其中48 h内重返率为16.00%,主要原因包括呼吸系统并发症、腹腔感染和肝血管栓塞。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,术后输注红细胞(OR=4.554,95%CI=1.743~11.901,P=0.002)、高血尿酸(OR=1.005,95%CI=1.001~1.009,P=0.014)是重返ICU的危险因素;高舒张压(OR=0.922,95%CI=0.885~0.960,P<0.001)和高总蛋白水平(OR=0.937,95%CI=0.891~0.986,P=0.012)是重返ICU的保护因素。结论术后输注红细胞、高血尿酸水平是儿童肝移植受者重返ICU的独立危险因素。

气候风险对企业价值的影响

极端天气事件频发不但给全球经济增长与金融稳定带来了严峻挑战,而且实体企业也受到多维度的负向影响。科学度量并缓解气候风险对企业价值的负向冲击已成为企业风险管理的重要内容,亦是实现经济可持续发展的重要微观基础。该研究以2012—2022年中国A股上市公司为样本,通过文本分析法刻画企业面临的气候风险,运用固定效应模型实证检验了气候风险对企业价值的影响及其机制。研究发现:①气候风险对企业价值具有显著的负向影响,这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验和处理内生性问题后依然稳健。②企业收益率和企业信用风险均是气候风险负向冲击企业价值的有效渠道,气候风险可通过降低企业的资产收益率以及增加企业的信用风险进而对企业价值产生负向影响。③气候风险对企业价值的负向影响因行业特性、区域位置和企业规模差异而具有异质性。气候风险对重污染行业企业、非东部地区企业以及中小型企业的负向影响更大,上述企业经营过程中更应注重气候风险所带来的负面影响。④企业绿色经营、提升风险管理与内控能力、机构投资者持股,有助于抑制气候风险对企业价值的不利影响。调节效应研究发现,企业ESG表现、企业风险管理能力、企业内部控制水平以及机构投资者持股比例对气候风险与企业价值之间的关系具有正向调节作用,显著抑制了气候风险对企业价值的负面影响。因此,企业应密切关注气候风险冲击,建立气候风险管理的长效机制,逐步强化对可持续发展理念的认知、提升风险管理与内控水平,多措并举加强对气候风险的管理。