A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay

Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.

Dynamic Analysis of Propulsion Mechanism Directly Driven by Wave Energy for Marine Mobile Buoy

Marine mobile buoy（MMB） have many potential applications in the maritime industry and ocean science.Great progress has been made,however the technology in this area is far from maturity in theory and faced with many difficulties in application.A dynamic model of the propulsion mechanism is very necessary for optimizing the parameters of the MMB,especially with consideration of hydrodynamic force.The principle of wave-driven propulsion mechanism is briefly introduced.To set a theory foundation for study on the MMB,a dynamic model of the propulsion mechanism of the MMB is obtained.The responses of the motion of the platform and the hydrofoil are obtained by using a numerical integration method to solve the ordinary differential equations.A simplified form of the motion equations is reached by omitting terms with high order small values.The relationship among the heave motion of the buoy,stiffness of the elastic components,and the forward speed can be obtained by using these simplified equations.The dynamic analysis show the following：The angle of displacement of foil is fairly small with the biggest value around 0.3 rad;The speed of mobile buoy and the angle of hydrofoil increased gradually with the increase of heave motion of buoy;The relationship among heaven motion,stiffness and attack angle is that heave motion leads to the angle change of foil whereas the item of speed or push function is determined by vertical velocity and angle,therefore,the heave motion and stiffness can affect the motion of buoy significantly if the size of hydrofoil is kept constant.The proposed model is provided to optimize the parameters of the MMB and a foundation is laid for improving the performance of the MMB.

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Recent Progress of Marine Geographic Information System in China:A Review for 2006-2010

In this article,the progress of marine geographic information system(MGIS) in China during 2006?2010 is reviewed with emphases on generic MGIS,advanced MGIS and MGIS-based applications.Generic MGIS can be divided into two categories:data-oriented MGIS and user-oriented MGIS,recent achievements of which by Chinese researchers are summarized respectively.Advanced MGIS mainly involves the establishment of 3D virtual marine environment and 'Digital Ocean'.An overview of the 3D MGIS based simulations in the context of ocean phenomena,ocean engineering and ocean battlefield is also presented.Several sug-gestions for future development of MGIS in China are proposed,and trends of development are addressed.

Boundary Control of Coupled Nonlinear Three Dimensional Marine Risers

This paper presents a design of boundary controllers implemented at the top end for global stabilization of a marine riser in a three dimensional space under environmental loadings. Based on the energy approach, nonlinear partial differential equations of motion, including bending-bending and longitudinal-bending couplings for the risers are derived. The couplings cause mutual effects between the three independent directions in the riser＇s motions, and make it difficult to minimize its vibrations. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to design the boundary controller. It is shown that the proposed boundary controllers can effectively reduce the riser＇s vibration. Stability analysis of the closed-loop system is performed using the Lyapunov direct method. Numerical simulations illustrate the results.

Numerical study on spatially varying control parameters of a marine ecosystem dynamical model with adjoint method

Based on the simulation of a marine ecosystem dynamical model in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, chlorophyll data are assimilated to study the spatially varying control parameters （CPs） by using the adjoint method. In this study, the CPs at some grid points are selected as the independent CPs, while the CPs at other grid points can be obtained through linear interpolation with the independent CPs. The independent CPs are uniformly selected from each 30′ × 30′area, and we confirm that the optimal influence radius is 1.2° by a twin experiment. In the following experiments, when only the maximum growth rate of phytoplankton （Vm） is estimated by two given types of spatially varying CPs, the mean relative errors of Vm are 1.22% and 0.94% while the decrease rates of the mean error of chlorophyll in the surface are 94.6% and 95.8%, respectively. When the other four CPs are estimated respectively, the results are also satisfactory, which indicates that the adjoint method has a strong ability of optimizing the prescribed CP with spatial variations. However, when all these five most important CPs are estimated simultaneously, the collocation of the changing trend of each parameter influences the estimation results remarkably. Only when the collocation of the changing trend of each parameter is consistent with the ecological mechanisms which influence the growth of the phytoplankton in marine ecosystem, could the five most important CPs be estimated more accurately.

Development of a global high-resolution marine dynamic environmental forecasting system

A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.

Development and Application of a Marine Ecosystem Dynamic Model

A nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus （NPZD） type of marine ecosystem model was developed in this study,and was further coupled to a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean circulation model with a river discharge model and a solar radiation model to reproduce the dynamics of the low nutrition level in the Bohai Sea （BS）.The simulation results were validated by observations and it was shown that the seasonal variation in the phytoplankton biomass could be characterized by the double-peak structure,corresponding to the spring and summer blooms,respectively.It was also found that both nitrogen and phosphate declined to the lowest level after the onset of the summer bloom,since the large amounts of nutrients were exhausted by phytoplankton for photosynthesis,and the concentrations of nutrients could resume in winter after a series of the biogeochemical-physical processes.By calculating the nitrogen/phosphorus （N/P） ratio,it is easy to see that the phytoplankton dynamics is nitrogen-limited as a whole in BS,though the phosphorus limitation may occur in the Yellow River （YR） Estuary where the input of riverine nitrogen is much more than that of phosphate.

Numerical experiments of HAB inducement in Qingdao adjacent coastal area

A three-dimension ecological dynamic model was established to numerically study the relationship of HAB and environmental conditions.The numerical experiments showed that the growth of diatom,the dominant HAB specie,was mainly restricted by phosphate and silicate.If the concentrations of phosphate and silicate reach 17-25 μg/L and 300-375 μg/L respectively,the water is in a state of eutrophication.When phosphate and silicate up to 26-32 μg/L and 350-500 μg/L respectively,HAB could be induced.The major regions of HAB occurrence are Jiaozhou Bay mouth,coastal bays,and coastal area from Maidao to Shilaoren.To avoid HAB occurrence,concentration of phosphate and silicate should not exceed 17-20 μg/L and 300 μg/L as a whole.Reasonable control of pollutant discharge is a key point to prevent water eutrophication and HAB occurrence.

A new biomimicry marine current turbine: Study of hydrodynamic performance and wake using software OpenFOAM

Inspired by Dryobalanops aromatica seed, a new biomimicry marine current turbine is proposed. Hydrodynamic performance and wake properties are two key factors determining whether a new marine current turbine design is practical or not. Thus, a study of hydrodynamic performance and wake of the proposed biomimicry turbine is conducted. The computational fluid dynamics（CFD） software, Open FOAM is used to generate the required results for the mentioned study. The hydrodynamic performance and wake properties of the proposed biomimicry turbine is compared to two conventional turbines of Bahaj et al. and Pinon et al. respectively. The simulation results showed that the proposed biomimicry marine current turbine gives optimum power output with its power coefficient, 0.376 PC ≈ at the tip speed ratio（TSR） of 1.5. Under the same boundary conditions, the maximum torque produced by the proposed biomimicry turbine at zero rotational speed is 38.71 Nm which is 1110% greater than the torque generated by the turbine of Bahaj et al.. The recovery distance for the wake of the biomimicry turbine is predicted to be 10.6% shorter than that of IFREMER-LOMC turbine. The above-mentioned results confirm the potential application of the proposed biomimicry marine current turbine in the renewable energy industry.