Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model

For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The＇principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning resuits of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions.

Research on the Impact of Equity Pledge on Company Value

This article aims to provide a literature review on the impact of equity pledges on corporate value,and to explore in depth the application of equity pledges as a financial tool in corporate governance and capital operation,as well as its multidimensional impact on corporate value.By reviewing and analyzing relevant literature both domestically and internationally,this article first defines the basic concept of equity pledges and then elaborates on the impact mechanism of equity pledges on company value from both positive and negative perspectives.In terms of positive impact,this article explores how equity pledges can promote corporate financing,optimize capital structure,and enhance the control of major shareholders over the company.In terms of negative impacts,the possible control risk,market risk,and potential damage to the interests of small and medium-sized shareholders brought about by equity pledges were analyzed.Furthermore,this article also discusses the differences in the impact of equity pledges on company value in different scenarios and proposes corresponding policy recommendations and research prospects.

Micro,Small,and Medium Enterprises’Cross-Border Business Strategies

This paper explores the operational strategies of cross-border micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Against the backdrop of globalization and digitalization, cross-border trade has become one of the important pathways for many MSMEs to achieve growth and competitive advantage. Firstly, the paper outlines the concept and characteristics of cross-border MSMEs, as well as the analysis of their operational environment in the context of globalization, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors. Secondly, the paper proposes operational strategies for cross-border MSMEs, including international market selection and positioning, cross-border marketing strategies, supply chain management, cross-border financial management, and cross-border risk management. Finally, the paper summarizes the importance of effectively implementing these strategies for cross-border MSMEs to seize international market opportunities, reduce operational risks, and enhance competitiveness and profitability.

PRICING EUROPEAN OPTION IN A DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL WITH TWO MARKET STRUCTURE RISKS AND ITS COMPARISONS

Using Fourier inversion transform, P.D.E. and Feynman-Kac formula, the closedform solution for price on European call option is given in a double exponential jump-diffusion model with two different market structure risks that there exist CIR stochastic volatility of stock return and Vasicek or CIR stochastic interest rate in the market. In the end, the result of the model in the paper is compared with those in other models, including BS model with numerical experiment. These results show that the double exponential jump-diffusion model with CIR-market structure risks is suitable for modelling the real-market changes and very useful.

Research on Market Risk Assessment of Dairy Farms: Taking 75 Dairy Farms in Heilongjiang Province as Examples

Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings： the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding.

A Statistical Measure of Global Equity Market Risk

We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods.

Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises： A Brazilian Example With the Central Bank and Currency Based Assets＊

This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/Brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.

Prevention of Agricultural Market Risks by Agricultural Production Entities in Hubei Province

Different agricultural production and operation entities face the same market risks.Since there is a huge gap in market risk prevention ability between agricultural market operation entities,the gap of risk prevention effect is huge.Using statistical analysis and comparative analysis methods,this paper analyzed characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural market risks and pointed out characteristics of agricultural market and special characteristics of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province.Based on SWOT analysis on market risk prevention ability of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province,it came up with three recommendations,including upgrading agricultural production and operation entities,enlarging the production and operation scale,and strengthening the ability of balancing the market demand and supply and bargaining power and pricing power.

Liquidity risk integration in portfolio choice： The bid efficient frontier

In this paper, a tractable solution is proposed to integrate, to a certain extent, market liquidity risk in the portfolio selection process. It is shown how an investor may take advantage of this additional risk source within the standard mean-variance optimization framework, by in certain circumstances overcoming the pitfalls of illiquidity and in others seizing a liquidity premium. Bid prices appear effective to capture liquidity risk. The efficient frontier conceived with bid prices consists of mean-variance optimal allocations that cover more liquid stocks （large caps） under stressed market conditions and less liquid stocks （small caps） under normal conditions.

The Empirical Tests on Risk in Chinese Futures Market

The Research on Market Risks has been developed abroad in all sorts of markets since 1960＇s. It＇s necessary to comprehend and consider opportunity and challenge in Chinese futures market from the viewpoint of risk management. With different ARCH models, we find heteroscedasticity does exist in Chinese market, so we adopt the Variance Ratio. We test empirically the prices of Chinese futures market from 1993 to 2002. The results show that only futures price of copper meets the random walk, thereby confirming the weak form market efficiency. It also means that the function of price discovery is weak and the risk of futures market is poor. Finally, we give much constructive policy advice.

Risk in A Concentrated Export Market

The export destination of China’s home textile products are considered to be highly concentrated. This is reflected by the statistical data of the past couple of years when, the top export destination of the following products-bedding products, curtain and towel- is United States.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production and countermeasures from an agricultural insurance perspective

In the face of the corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,it is essential to stabilize the security of urban“shopping baskets”.Through a survey and interviews with 46 agricultural cooperatives in Shanghai,this paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and offers suggestions on agricultural insurance.The research results show that:(1)the pandemic has impacted almost all stages of the vegetable supply chain but has had a greater impact on the sales stage;(2)the market risks of vegetable production have increased significantly,and the gap between the field price and the market price has widened.The sales price difference between traditional channels and e-commerce is notable;(3)farmers’incomes have generally declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic,and traditional small-scale farmers have suffered more losses;and(4)agricultural insurance plays an important role in stabilizing the supply of vegetables to the city.To minimize the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and to stabilize both urban“shopping baskets”and farmers’incomes,it is necessary to further improve agricultural insurance,especially to provide insurance against market risks.

Influence of The Belt and Road Initiative on Oil and Gas Infrastructure

China has proposed the ＂Belt and Road Initiative （B＆R）＂ in 2013. One its core strategies is international oil/gas cooperation. This paper addresses the status quo of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇, anticipahs the cooperatiorl prospect. On this basis, the author analyzes China＇s advantages and cooperation basis in this domain, conceives the practical way of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇. This paper also elaborates on tlre potential risks, risk evaluation criteria and risk corr trol in oil/gas infrastructu re cooperation with countries tries along tire line of ＂B＆R＂.

Using Wheat Futures to Stabilize the Cost of Raw Material in Bakery Sector

The article presents the example of using relations between the price of wheat flour sold by the milling companies and the price of wheat futures listed on the FOREX market to protect the companies from bakery sector against adverse price movements of raw material--wheat flour. The paper aims to present a method which can help to reduce risk of changes wheat flour price in the market by using wheat futures traded at FOREX market. For the analysis authors used weekly data since January 2006 until October 2010 about wheat flour price, wheat grain price, wheat futures prices, quotes a currency pair USD/PLN. Wheat flour prices came from studies of the Department of Agricultural Markets, Ministry of Agriculture, and Rural Development in Poland and represented the average sales price of wheat flour by milling companies. Information about wheat futures and quotes a currency pair USD/PLN reflects the actual trading of the FOREX market. Authors used statistical analysis tool for determining the strength of the relationship between the price of wheat flour and the wheat price on the domestic market and the wheat futures price. The correlation coefficient between them was 0.763. For further test authors used seven different options that use future contracts to reduce fluctuations in the flour price which can be used in bakery businesses. These results of research show that someone can effectively use wheat futures contracts listed on the FOREX market to protect the bakery business against adverse movements of wheat flour prices. Application in practice chosen strategies can allow bakery companies to achieve cost advantages by reducing the adverse changes in the wheat flour prices. Chosen strategies are more efficient if the prices of flour in the domestic market are rising. If prices drop down, the effectiveness of using wheat futures contracts was lower. It should be noted that wheat futures contracts are a good tool to achieve cost advantages in the bakery industry, especially when the wheat flour prices are increased on the domestic market.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.

Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect of Soybean Price between Domestic and International Markets

Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in implementing price stabilization policy for the government. This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers in soybean prices between international and domestic markets using the multivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model based on the data set from December 22,2004 to December 19,2014. The estimate results indicate that there are volatility spillover effects from domestic futures market to spot market and bilateral spillover between international futures market and domestic spot market. In order to prevent market manipulation and to reduce the impacts of price volatility in international soybean market on Chinese market,this paper proposes the following policy measures such as establishing early warning mechanism for soybean price fluctuations,improving soybean futures contract design and strengthening trading risk management mechanism,amplifying information disclosure system,and regularizing speculation activities of big traders.

Near- and Mid-term Development of Natural Gas Market in China

Economy growth in China is expected to slow down a little during the I3th Five-Year-Plan period. So will the domestic gas demand and supply market, which may be quite different from that of the 11 th and 12th Five-Year-Plan periods. The paper summarized the state quo of gas supply and demand in the country and analyzed factors that may affect the demand and supply balance in the new period. It is proposed that there will be many uncertainties in achieving supply and demand goals of gas set for tire period, and gas glut is also very possible during the time. To deal with the problem, it is suggested that several measures be taken nationwide： improving utilization of gas in several sectors, straightening and optimizing the pricing mechanism, speeding up construction of infrastructures, implementing relevant policies and boosting up supen^ision and monitor of tire industry.

New Maintenance Strategies for Generating Companies in Power Market

A new approach to maintenance scheduling of generating units(MSU)in competitive electricity markets was presented,which was formulated as a noncooperative game with complete information.The payoff of each generating company(Genco)was defined as the profit from the energy auction market minus maintenance cost and risk loss.The compensation fee of interruptible load was a part of the maintenance cost when the permitted maintenance capacity in the system was insufficient.Hourly energy auction was incorporated in the computation of both revenues from energy market and risk loss of maintenance strategy as a nested game.A new heuristic search algorithm for the calculation of the game equilibrium of MSU was presented,which coordinates the solutions of non-equilibrium,unique equilibrium and multiple equilibria.Numerical results for a two-Genco system and a realistic system were used to demonstrate the basic ideas and the applicability of the proposed method,as well as its computational efficiency.

Risk Control of Pension Fund Management in China

Based on an analysis of China ＇s current pension system, the present paper indicates that risk control of pension fund management is a serious policy challenge for the Chinese Government. Although some reform efforts have been made, there are still serious institutional and capital market risks that are difficult to overcome but are key in the success of China＇s pension reform. To ensure a smooth transition in pension reform, China not only needs to build a better institutional framework and facilitate capital market development, but also raise the risk awareness of individual pensioners.

Internet Financial Risks and Investors’Risk Awareness--Evidence from Transaction Data of Online Lending Platforms

For the first time,this paper uses the operation data of 575 online P2P lending platforms to test whether investors have a strong risk awareness of online lending products.It is found that investors’behavior shows a certain risk awareness,both for the individual risk of specific platforms and for the overall market risk of the industry.On the one hand,raising interest rates and shortening the term does attract more investment,but for potentially problematic platforms,the effect of attracting investment is significantly worse,with excessive interest rates on the platforms even causing investors to invest less.On the other hand,when there are more online lending platforms in the market,investors will behave more cautiously.