Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to Studying the Distribution of Wave Heights in A Random Wave Field

Based on the maximum entropy principle, a probability density function (PDF) is derived for the distribution of wave heights in a random wave field, without any more hypothesis. The present PDF, being a non-Rayleigh form, involves two parameters: the average wave height H— and the state parameter γ. The role of γ in the distribution of wave heights is examined. It is found that γ may be a certain measure of sea state. A least square method for determining γ from measured data is proposed. In virtue of the method, the values of γ are determined for three sea states from the data measured in the East China Sea. The present PDF is compared with the well known Rayleigh PDF of wave height and it is shown that it much better fits the data than the Rayleigh PDF. It is expected that the present PDF would fit some other wave variables, since its derivation is not restricted only to the wave height.

A Maximum-Entropy Compound Distribution Model for Extreme Wave Heights of Typhoon-Affected Sea Areas

A new compound distribution model for extreme wave heights of typhoon-affected sea areas is proposed on the basis of the maximum-entropy principle. The new model is formed by nesting a discrete distribution in a continuous one, having eight parameters which can be determined in terms of observed data of typhoon occurrence-frequency and extreme wave heights by numerically solving two sets of equations derived in this paper. The model is examined by using it to predict the N-year return-period wave height at two hydrology stations in the Yellow Sea, and the predicted results are compared with those predicted by use of some other compound distribution models. Examinations and comparisons show that the model has some advantages for predicting the N-year return-period wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas.

Probabilistic Distribution of the Maximum Wave Heigh

A new method of treating maximum wave height as a random variable in reliability analysis of breakwater caissons isproposed. The maximum wave height is expressed as the significant wave height multiplied by the so-called wave height ratio.The proposed wave height ratio is a type of transfer function from the significant wave height to the maximum wave height.Under the condition of a breaking wave, the ratio is intrinsically nonlinear. Therefore, the probability density function for thevariable cannot be easily defined. In this study, however, it can be derived from the relationship between the maximum andsignificant waves in a nonbreaking environment. Some examples are shown to validate the derived probability density functionfor the wave ratio parameter. By introducing the wave height ratio into reliability analysis of caisson breakwater, the maximumwave height can be used as an independent and primary random variable, which means that the risk of caisson failure during itslifetime can be evaluated realistically.

A statistical analysis of typhoon frequency and application in design wave height

A typhoon leading is an important natural disaster to many disasters to China. A giant wave caused by it has brought large threat for an offshore project. Based on the maximum entropy principle,one new model which has 4 undetermined parameters is constructed,which is called the discrete maximum entropy probabilistic model. In practical applications,the design wave height is considered as soon as possible in a typhoon affected sea areas,the result fits the observed data well. Further more this model does not have the priority compared with other distributions as Poisson distribution. The model provides a theoretical basis for the engineering design more reasonable when considering typhoon factors comprehensively.

Long-Term Statistics of Extreme Tsunami Height at Crescent City

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

A New Approach to Estimating the T-Year Return-Period Wave Height

The paper introduces a new approach to estimating the T-year return-period wave height (TRPW), i.e. the wave height expected to occur in T-year, from two sets of observed extreme data and on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the approach are as follows. 1) A maximum entropy probability density function (PDF) for the extreme wave height H is derived from a Euler equation subject to some necessary and rational constraints. 2) The parameters in the function are expressed in terms of the mth moment of H. 3) This PDF is convenient to theoretical and practical applications as it is simple and its four parameters are easy to be determined from observed extreme data. An example is given for estimating the TRPW in 50 and 100 years by the present approach and by some currently used methods using observed data at two hydrographic stations.The comparison of the estimated results shows that the present approach is quite similar to the Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel methods.

Maximum Relative Displacement of Adjacent Buildings During Ground Motions

In order to give the reasonable width of seismic gaps to prevent the structural pounding during ground motions,the maximum relative displacement of adjacent structures is studied in this paper.The factors that may have effects on the maximum relative displacement are discussed.As for multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF) systems,they can be equivalent to single-degree-of-freedom(SDOF) systems with the influences of high modes neglected.The results show that the period ratio,height ratio and peak ground acceleration are the main factors that have great effects on the maximum relative displacement of adjacent structures.The maximum relative displacement of MDOF systems can be obtained from calculating the maximum relative displacement of the equivalent SDOF systems.

WavewatchⅢ模拟和统计方法在最大波高预报方面的评测分析

为了研究WavewatchⅢ(WWⅢ)海浪模型对最大波高的模拟能力及其与传统统计关系方法的差异,通过对两次台风浪过程的后报模拟和半年的业务化预报,分析了WWⅢ数值模拟的准确度及其与统计关系方法的精度差异。研究结果表明:WWⅢ数值模拟的最大波高(Hmax)的精度略低于有效波高(Hs),但也达到了24 h预报相对误差(H_(max)≥1 m)低于18%、相关系数高于0.94的水平,模拟精度可靠,可以用于业务化预报;与两种统计关系方法(H_(max)和H_(s)分别为1.42和1.52)计算的最大波高相比,数值模拟的精度总体与其相当,但在H_(max)和H_(s)比值大于1.65这种易出现危险的海况下,数值模拟具有更高的准确性,更适合应用于海浪预警报服务。

超强台风“莫兰蒂”(1614)边界层结构的风廓线雷达观测分析

利用翔安风廓线雷达和厦门探空雷达资料,对2016年超强台风“莫兰蒂”外雨带(距离台风中心120~220 km)和外围晴空(距离台风中心400~630 km)边界层结构进行观测分析,结果表明:在超强台风“莫兰蒂”外雨带,风廓线雷达反演的最大切向风速高度分布在入流层下方0.5~1.0 km处,并且随着台风中心的靠近,最大切向风速和入流层高度都有降低的趋势,受降雨粒子的影响,风廓线雷达只能定性反映台风外雨带最大切向风速高度和入流层高度分布特征。在超强台风“莫兰蒂”外围晴空天气下,最大切向风速高度与入流层高度具有一致性,其边界层高度变化比较平稳,高度分布在1.2~1.6 km之间,能够定量反映台风外围晴空边界层高度分布;相对于传统热力驱动的湍流,台风系统边界层湍流主要由风切变驱动,台风外围湍流活动的增强主要发生在最大切向风速高度附近,除了风切变还有其他比较重要的驱动源,表明在台风边界层顶部附近有更加复杂的湍流活动,需要更加精细的湍流通量试验确定其来源。

综采工作面采动覆岩导水裂隙带发育高度综合研究

针对因煤层开采易导致上覆岩层产生裂隙,贯通地下含水层引发矿井水灾的问题,以盘城岭煤业150105工作面为研究背景,采用理论公式、现场井下仰孔注水测漏法和钻孔电视成像探测法,以及FLAC3D和UDEC数值模拟综合分析导水裂隙带的高度和发育规律。理论计算导水裂隙带的最大高度为81.56 m;通过井下仰孔注水测漏法监测3个钻孔的注水渗透量梯度临界值为12 L/min,通过临界值判定导水裂隙带高度为78.56~79.99 m;通过钻孔电视成像探测法观测钻孔内裂隙分布判定导水裂隙带高度为78.39~79.46 m;利用FLAC3D和UDEC数值模拟,根据覆岩塑性区变化特征,当工作面推进至180 m时,裂隙发生贯通,塑性区最大高度达到76.4 m,并根据覆岩塑性区变化、垂直应力分布、垂直位移云图分析了导水裂隙带发育规律的3个阶段。对不同方法下的导水裂隙带高度进行了相互验证。

星载GNSS-R检测太湖水华可行性分析

星载全球导航卫星系统反射信号(GNSS-R)属于被动遥感技术,具有数据重访周期高、全天时、全天候、信号源丰富等优势。基于此,研究星载GNSS-R检测太湖水华的可行性。星载GNSS-R可以有效检测反射面的粗糙程度,通过使用相干反射表征反射面的粗糙度,研究不同风速区间内相干反射与蓝藻水华的关系。利用2020年4—8月美国气旋全球导航卫星系统(CYGNSS)数据,计算CYGNSS镜面反射点的时延多普勒图(DDM)功率比。以“哨兵-3”卫星水色遥感仪器(OLCI)影像最大特征峰高度(MPH)算法反演出的太湖叶绿素浓度作为参照,与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的风速产品进行时空间线性匹配,分析发现,在1~2.5 m/s风速区间内,叶绿素浓度达到0.1 mg/L以上时,极易引起镜面反射点发生相干反射,且功率比与叶绿素浓度的相关系数为0.84,具有良好的相关性。实验结果证明了利用星载GNSS-R的功率比及相关特性实现太湖水华检测的可行性。

基于多视角三维航摄影像的树高提取方法比较

树高是一个重要的立木调查因子,传统树高测量方法是利用测高器人工测量,该方法调查速度慢,效率低下.重叠的立体像对,可以反映地物的高度信息,为大面积树高信息提取提供了可能.本研究采用大疆Phantom 4 RTK无人机获取研究区航摄影像并构建立体像对,分别从不同视角采用三维模型直接测量法、倾斜摄影点云提取法、冠层高度模型局部最大值法进行了树高信息提取.研究结果表明,三种方法林木检测率依次为:82.5%、76.8%、71.1%,测得的树高结果精度分别为:R2=0.730,RMSE=1.699;R2=0.804,RMSE=1.459;R2=0.766,RMSE=1.548.三维模型测量法获取的树高提取率最高,倾斜摄影点云提取的树高值与实测值的拟合度最高.研究结果利用航摄影像能够高效地提取树高信息,为林业研究调查提供一种低成本、高效率的方法.

四川盆地大气混合层高度变化特征及其与PM_(2.5)浓度之间关系

利用四川盆地2016-2018年的探空资料,估算了3个代表地区(成都、宜宾、达州)最大混合层高度(MMH),运用ERA-interim再分析资料的边界层高度(ERA-PBLH)验证MMH计算结果的可靠性,分析了MMH的概率分布、季节变化特征,并结合同期PM_(2.5)日均浓度资料及地面气象观测资料,探讨了MMH和其他气象因子与PM_(2.5)日均浓度之间的关系。结果表明,四川盆地MMH整体偏低。在季节分布上,成都和宜宾MMH春季的最高,秋季的最低,达州夏季的最高,冬季的最低,这种地区性差异的主要原因来自感热通量及水汽条件的季节变化。总体上PM_(2.5)日均浓度随MMH的升高而逐渐减小。重污染天气多发生在MMH较低、相对湿度较大的情况下,较低的抬升凝结高度限制了混合层的增高,并且气溶胶吸湿增长作用明显,污染物容易聚集。盆地PM_(2.5)浓度的高值主要集中在风速为1.0 m/s左右,盆地内空气流入对当地污染物浓度有明显的增长作用。

基于漠河与武汉站流星雷达的中间层顶大气温度反演

本文利用漠河和武汉站的全天空流星雷达在2012—2022年期间的观测数据,基于流星高度分布的半高宽(full width at half maximum,FWHM)与温度之间的线性关系来反演90 km高度处的大气温度。对每年数据作线性拟合时发现拟合参数几乎不变,因此本文使用过去一段时间总结出的参数来拟合温度,并与传统梯度法对比。结果表明,使用FWHM法测出的温度与Aura卫星的温度更为接近,其中相关系数和平均误差均优于梯度法,并且FWHM法在较高纬度的漠河站的拟合效果好于较低纬度的武汉站。说明在漠河站和武汉站使用FWHM法反演中间层顶大气温度是可行的;同时也证明了纬度会影响FWHM法的误差,在较高纬度使用FWHM法的结果误差更小。

基于无人机激光雷达数据的树高提取分析

树高是森林资源调查的重要参数,由于传统人工估算树冠树高方法存在费时、费力等缺点,因此,无人机激光雷达技术被广泛应用。首先,获取数据并分析,采用坡度滤波算法和布料模拟滤波算法提取地面点的精度情况,其相关系数R²分别为0.9927、0.9922,坡度滤波算法提取地面点准确度略高;然后通过自然领域法插值生成数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM),再用归一化数字表面模型(Nor‐malized Digital Surface Model,nDSM)提取冠层高度模型(Canopy Height Model,CHM),采用局部最大值算法和分水岭算法提取树高;最后,用实测结果进行精度验证。结果表明:树顶点识别与实测树顶点结果召回率96%、准确率100%、F测度为98%,说明树顶点识别精度较高;树高提取均方根误差达到0.33、最大绝对误差为1.87、最小绝对误差为0.01,说明轻小型无人机遥感技术可快速高效地测量单木树高,且测量精度满足林业调查基本需求,为城市林业资源调查提供技术支持,实现高效化和低成本化。

融合MIC与Res-LSTM模型的有效波高预测

有效波高(significant wave height,SWH)的预测在海洋运输和海上活动方面发挥着重要作用。基于中国阳江海陵岛近岸实测数据,提出一种融合最大信息系数(maximal information coefficient,MIC)、残差网络(residual network,ResNet)和长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory networks,LSTM)的预测模型。首先,采用MIC算法从数据集中筛选出与预测指标相关性高的参数作为模型的输入;然后将ResNet引入LSTM中,构建Res-LSTM预测模型;最后选择相关系数(r-squared,R2)、均方根差(root mean squared error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)来评价预测结果。同时,对比了XGBoost(extreme gradient boosting)、SVR(support vector regression)和LSTM网络的预测效果。结果表明,MIC-Res-LSTM模型能够提高短时有效波高预测值的精度。

复合地形场景下的米波雷达超分辨测高方法

文中重点研究一种典型“平坦+斜坡”复合地形场景下超分辨测高问题。根据阵列反射径回波遮蔽情况,将回波场景分成无遮蔽、全遮蔽和部分遮蔽等三种情况。传统的基于最大似然超分辨测高方法,无法适用于阵列反射径回波部分被遮蔽的场景。文中设计了一种自适应最大似然测高方法。首先,通过上下阵子阵分割,并行构建回波模型,采用模型匹配度预估反射点遮蔽边界大致位置;然后,基于阵列通道数据幅度差异,判别反射点遮蔽边界准备位置;最后,构建新的回波模型估计目标高度。仿真结果表明,该方法能够有效实现复合地形场景下米波雷达超分辨测高。

三峡库区涉水滑坡涌浪预测分析

三峡库区涉水滑坡分布广泛,其运动方式、涌浪波特征与涉水情况紧密相关。现有的滑坡涌浪预测方法中,鲜有考虑滑坡涉水情况对涌浪的影响。基于此,通过滑坡物理概化模型试验,对涉水滑坡涌浪特征及不同淹没度λ(滑体滑动前水下部分滑体体积与整体体积之比)情况下滑坡涌浪首浪最大波高计算公式进行研究。研究发现:随着淹没度的增加,滑坡涌浪类型逐渐由水上滑坡涌浪向水下滑坡涌浪转变,且涌浪波高逐渐减小。结合试验数据通过非线性回归分析得出涉水滑坡涌浪首浪最大波高计算公式,与Node公式、潘家铮公式相比较,所推导的经验公式适合涉水滑坡涌浪首浪最大波高计算,预测精度更高,可为涉水滑坡涌浪灾害预测预报分析提供参考。

差异纹理条件下木材燃烧性能研究

为探究不同纹理木材火焰燃烧特性,选择了5种常见木材,搭建试验装置,设计15组试验,从质量损失速率、最大火焰高度、燃烧时间等方面,分析了横向、竖向、斜向纹理木材的燃烧特性。结果显示:木材的质量损失速率与纹理有关,纹理对松木燃烧时的最大火焰高度影响最小,对杉木影响最大;榉木燃烧持续时间比其他4种木材长,杉木燃烧持续时间相对较短。研究结果有助于更好地掌握纹理对木材燃烧火焰特性的影响,为木结构建筑选材及火灾防治提供理论支撑。

沙粒跃移轨迹参数的统计研究

高速频闪摄影从实验技术上加强了对沙粒跃移运动及其参数的研究,但因拍摄沙粒的成像点不完整又存在局限性,用曲线拟合高速频闪摄影的跃移沙粒轨迹可以补足缺失的成像点。本文对高速摄影的沙粒轨迹进行曲线拟合,从拟合曲线反求出沙粒的起跳角θ0、上升段跃高H1、上升段跃距L1、沉降角θt、下降段跃高H2、下降段跃距L2,并对各参数进行统计分析,得出各参数间的函数关系式,为进一步研究颗粒跃移运动过程提供基础。