Estimation of the Maximum Annual Loads Modeling for Kingdom of Bahrain

The present paper proposes the impact of the air temperature on electricity demand as expected. It is clear that the annual maximum load is recorded versus the years starting by the year 2009 up to 2012. At present, the graph fitting technique is applied with some mathematical and computational tools based on the actual values of the years 2009 up to 2012 considering the lower values, the higher values and the average values of the annual maximum loads for Kingdom of Bahrain. For the three scenarios, the models are obtained by curve fitting technique. As well, the model of actual loads is obtained finally which has mostly the closest values obtained.

Hybrid Deep Learning Architecture to Forecast Maximum Load Duration Using Time-of-Use Pricing Plans

Load forecasting has received crucial research attention to reduce peak load and contribute to the stability of power grid using machine learning or deep learning models.Especially,we need the adequate model to forecast the maximum load duration based on time-of-use,which is the electricity usage fare policy in order to achieve the goals such as peak load reduction in a power grid.However,the existing single machine learning or deep learning forecasting cannot easily avoid overfitting.Moreover,a majority of the ensemble or hybrid models do not achieve optimal results for forecasting the maximum load duration based on time-of-use.To overcome these limitations,we propose a hybrid deep learning architecture to forecast maximum load duration based on time-of-use.Experimental results indicate that this architecture could achieve the highest average of recall and accuracy(83.43%)compared to benchmark models.To verify the effectiveness of the architecture,another experimental result shows that energy storage system(ESS)scheme in accordance with the forecast results of the proposed model(LSTM-MATO)in the architecture could provide peak load cost savings of 17,535,700 KRW each year comparing with original peak load costs without the method.Therefore,the proposed architecture could be utilized for practical applications such as peak load reduction in the grid.

Total Maximum Allocated Loads on Stoichiometry of Nitrogen and Identification of Critical Form in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Total pollutant load control management for total dissolved nitrogen(TDN) is an urgent task required to gain a good water quality status in Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), China. In this paper, the stoichiometry of multiform TDN on land-ocean interactions associated with marine biogeochemical reaction(LOIMBR) was studied by modeling the load-response relationship based on a three-dimensional water quality model of nitrogen in JZB. The results showed that the stoichiometry on LOIMBR of dissolved organic nitrogen(DON), NO3-N and NH4-N was 3:1:1, with one-third of the contribution on the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) in JZB for the land-based DON loads to DIN loads. Based on the stoichiometric relationship of nitrogen forms, the total maximum allocated load(TMAL) of equivalent TDN(ETDN) was approximately 5300 t a^-1 in JZB, equivalent to the TMAL of 5700, 5800 and 15600 t a^-1 for NH4-N, NO3-N and DON, respectively. According to the loads of ETDN, there were four outfalls overloaded in JZB in 2015, which lie in the head of the bay. In the four overloaded outfalls, besides NO3-N, NH4-N was the critical nitrogen control form for Moshui River, while DON for Dagu River and Haibo River. The results of numerical experiments further showed that JZB will achieve good water quality after 7 years by implementation of the 'different emission reduction' based on TMAL of ETDN, which is significantly better than 'equal percent removal'.

Prediction of a maximum pull-out load of anchor bolts using an optimal combination model

The mixed model of improved exponential and power function and unequal interval gray GM(1,1)model have poor accuracy in predicting the maximum pull-out load of anchor bolts.An optimal combination model was derived using the optimally weighted combination theory and the minimum sum of logarithmic squared errors as the objective function.Two typical anchor bolt pull-out engineering cases were selected to compare the performance of the proposed model with those of existing ones.Results showed that the optimal combination model was suitable not only for the slow P-s curve but also for the steep P-s curve.Its accuracy and stable reliability,as well as its prediction capability classification,were better than those of the other prediction models.Therefore,the optimal combination model is an effective processing method for predicting the maximum pull-out load of anchor bolts according to measured data.

Development of the artificial seabed technology and implementation pretrial well in the South China Sea

This paper introduces the recent highly significant activity of China Oilfield Services Ltd. （COSL） in the South China Sea, where COSL conducted pretrial drilling in June of 2008. The paper discusses some key research and new practices which led to the fabrication of related equipment which was evaluated in the trial. The market for deepwater drilling in the world has grown over the past 10 years but there are few drilling vessels or platforms suitable for drilling in deepwater or super deepwater. China needs equipment capable of deepwater drilling operations. COSL has some semisubmersible platforms, but they are only considered suitable for operations in water depths less than 475 m. An enabling technology, referred to as an artificial seabed, has been under development by COSL since 2004, and it applies the research results and experiences of many experts in deepwater drilling. COSL hopes this technology will allow drilling to depths of approximately 1 000-1 500m with its current platforms. The paper presents research progress and improvements in fabrication and necessary upgrades to equipment for extending deepwater drilling. The pretrial well was executed at a water depth of nearly 500m. COSL will drill the trial well around 2009 at the same location in the South China Sea.

Impact damage behavior of sandwich composite with aluminum foam core

Impact property of the sandwich composite with aluminum foam core was investigated by experiment and simulation analysis. Impact energies of 50, 70 and 100 J were applied to the specimens in impact tests. The results show that the striker penetrates the upper face sheet, causing the core to be damaged at 50 J test but the lower face sheet remains intact with no damage. At 70 J test, the striker penetrates the upper face sheet and the core,and causes the lower face sheet to be damaged. Finally at 100 J test, the striker penetrates both the upper face sheet and the core, and even the lower face sheet. The experimental and simulation results agree with each other. By the confirmation with the experimental results, all these simulation results can be applied on structure study of real sandwich composite with aluminum foam core effectively.

Novel method for the identification of the maximum solid loading suitable for optimal extrusion of ceramic pastes

Gadolinia-doped ceria ceramic pastes were formulated with different solid loadings and extruded using lab-scale equipment.The force to maintain a constant ram speed of 10 mm/min was recorded.The radial shrinkage after drying was proportional to the solid loading and this allowed the determination of the maximum solid loading by an extrapolation procedure.In order to obtain the apparent viscosity of the pastes,a novel approach based on the analysis of the slope of the extrusion pressure plot versus distance covered by the ram,was formulated for the direct determination of the shear stress upon extrusion.The agreement of the determined maximum solid loading with values calculated by two existing models confirmed that the proposed approach was an alternative and reliable method to identify the upper limit of the solid loading range for the formulation of extrudable ceramic pastes.

Critical flow-storm approach to total maximum daily load (TMDL) development:an analytical conceptual model

One of the key challenges in the total maximum daily load(TMDL)development process is how to define the critical condition for a receiving waterbody.The main concern in using a continuous simulation approach is the absence of any guarantee that the most critical condition will be captured during the selected representative hydrologic period,given the scarcity of long-term continuous data.The objectives of this paper are to clearly address the critical condition in the TMDL development process and to compare continuous and event-based approaches in defining critical condition during TMDL development for a waterbody impacted by both point and nonpoint source pollution.A practical,event-based critical flow-storm(CFS)approach was developed to explicitly addresses the critical condition as a combination of a low stream flow and a storm event of a selected magnitude,both having certain frequencies of occurrence.This paper illustrated the CFS concept and provided its theoretical basis using a derived analytical conceptual model.The CFS approach clearly defined a critical condition,obtained reasonable results and could be considered as an alternative method in TMDL development.

Assessment of the maximum allowed acid deposition load at current stage in China

Soil acidification caused by acid deposition has been significant in some forests in southern China. We present an approach for assessing the current stage maximum allowed load （SML） of acid deposition for terrestrial system in the country. The main idea was that soil base cation exchange as a finite buffer to acidity was included in the soil acidity mass balance calculation at current acidification stage. We calculated the SML for five forests in southern China. The usual critical loads for the same forests were also calculated by the steady state mass balance model for comparison. The results showed that the SML is a more tolerant limit than the critical load for the forests with soils not acidified seriously at current stage. However, the SML become a more stringent limit to acid deposition when the forest soils have acidified seriously to very low base cation saturation. In this case the SML assessment is beneficial for the soils recovering from a serious acidified state. Based on a national scale database, the SML mapping for non-agricultural soil system in China was carried out.

Predicting the Maximum Load of Reinforced-Concrete Pipe Columns

To simplify the calculation of the maximum load at which instability occurs for reinforced-concrete pipe columns under eccentric compression, a method based on the transformed cross-sectional area of the column and the concrete secant modulus of elasticity is proposed, consisting of an iterative process in which a sequence of lateral deflections is at column mid-height. The method assumes the deflected shape of the column as a half cosine wave. Analytical results were compared with experimental values obtained from 16 reinforced-concrete pipe columns. Using deflection at column mid-height recorded during the loading proc-ess, a typical load-deflection curve can be plotted and used to describe column behavior. The experimental results demonstrate that the failure of concrete columns is a process. The starting point is the cracking load point, when cracks are initiated in the concrete of the tensile zone of the critical cross-section of specimens. The maximum load point is the top of the failure process, and then the maximum bending moment occurs. The first point represents instability while the second one corresponds to the strength failure of the columns. The experimental results are close to the analytical values. The method is simple and can be used for stabil-ity analysis of reinforced-concrete pipe columns.

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for TMDL development of Lake Fuxian,China

Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard （CNWQS）, i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class II threshold in some areas. Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load （TMDL） program. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian, simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport. The model development process consists of several steps, including grid generation, initial and boundary condition configurations, and model calibration processes. The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation, spatiotemporal variations in temperature, and total nitrogen （TN）, total phosphorus （TP）, and chemical oxygen demand （COD） concentrations, suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses. The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class I of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations. Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN, TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%, 68% and 57%, respectively. Water quality was the highest priority; however, local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues. In the second interpretation, the model results showed that, under the existing conditions, the average water quality meets the Class I standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary. Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.

Resilience indicators support valuation of estuarine ecosystem restoration under climate change

Economic valuation of ecological restoration most often encompasses only the most tangible ecosystem service benefits,thereby omitting many difficult-to measure benefits,including those derived from enhanced reliability of ecosystem services.Because climate change is likely to impose novel ecosystem stressors,a typical approach to valuing benefits may fail to capture the contribution of ecosystem resilience to sustaining long-term benefits.Unfortunately,we generally lack predictive probabilistic models that would enable measurement and valuation of resilience.Therefore,alternative measures are needed to complement monetary values and broaden understanding of restoration benefits.We use a case study of Chesapeake Bay restoration(total maximum daily load)to show that ecosystem service benefits that are typically monetized leave critical information gaps.To address these gaps,we review evidence for ecosystem services that can be quantified or described,including changes in harmful algal bloom risks.We further propose two integrative indicators of estuarine resilience-the extent of submerged aquatic vegetation and spatial distribution of fish.Submerged aquatic vegetation extent is indicative of qualities of ecosystems that promote positive feedbacks to water quality.Broadly distributed fish populations reduce risk by promoting diverse responses to spatially heterogeneous stresses.Our synthesis and new analyses for the Chesapeake Bay suggest that resilience metrics improve understanding of restoration benefits by demonstrating how nutrient and sediment load reductions will alleviate multiple sources of stress,thereby enhancing the system’s capacity to absorb or adapt to extreme events or novel stresses.