Efficient slope reliability analysis under soil spatial variability using maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments

Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.

Maximum Correntropy Criterion-Based UKF for Loosely Coupling INS and UWB in Indoor Localization

Indoor positioning is a key technology in today’s intelligent environments,and it plays a crucial role in many application areas.This paper proposed an unscented Kalman filter(UKF)based on the maximum correntropy criterion(MCC)instead of the minimummean square error criterion(MMSE).This innovative approach is applied to the loose coupling of the Inertial Navigation System(INS)and Ultra-Wideband(UWB).By introducing the maximum correntropy criterion,the MCCUKF algorithm dynamically adjusts the covariance matrices of the system noise and the measurement noise,thus enhancing its adaptability to diverse environmental localization requirements.Particularly in the presence of non-Gaussian noise,especially heavy-tailed noise,the MCCUKF exhibits superior accuracy and robustness compared to the traditional UKF.The method initially generates an estimate of the predicted state and covariance matrix through the unscented transform(UT)and then recharacterizes the measurement information using a nonlinear regression method at the cost of theMCC.Subsequently,the state and covariance matrices of the filter are updated by employing the unscented transformation on the measurement equations.Moreover,to mitigate the influence of non-line-of-sight(NLOS)errors positioning accuracy,this paper proposes a k-medoid clustering algorithm based on bisection k-means(Bikmeans).This algorithm preprocesses the UWB distance measurements to yield a more precise position estimation.Simulation results demonstrate that MCCUKF is robust to the uncertainty of UWB and realizes stable integration of INS and UWB systems.

Probabilistic Global Maximum Power Point Tracking Algorithm for Continuously Varying Partial Shading Conditions on Autonomous PV Systems

A photovoltaic (PV) string with multiple modules with bypass diodes frequently deployed on a variety of autonomous PV systems may present multiple power peaks under uneven shading. For optimal solar harvesting, there is a need for a control schema to force the PV string to operate at global maximum power point (GMPP). While a lot of tracking methods have been proposed in the literature, they are usually complex and do not fully take advantage of the available characteristics of the PV array. This work highlights how the voltage at operating point and the forward voltage of the bypass diode are considered to design a global maximum power point tracking (GMPPT) algorithm with a very limited global search phase called Fast GMPPT. This algorithm successfully tracks GMPP between 94% and 98% of the time under a theoretical evaluation. It is then compared against Perturb and Observe, Deterministic Particle Swarm Optimization, and Grey Wolf Optimization under a sequence of irradiance steps as well as a power-over-voltage characteristics profile that mimics the electrical characteristics of a PV string under varying partial shading conditions. Overall, the simulation with the sequence of irradiance steps shows that while Fast GMPPT does not have the best convergence time, it has an excellent convergence rate as well as causes the least amount of power loss during the global search phase. Experimental test under varying partial shading conditions shows that while the GMPPT proposal is simple and lightweight, it is very performant under a wide range of dynamically varying partial shading conditions and boasts the best energy efficiency (94.74%) out of the 4 tested algorithms.

The Accelerated Expansion of the Universe in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle

The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.

Revisiting East Asian monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum using PMIP4 simulations

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,本文重新检查了末次冰盛期(距今约21000年)东亚季风变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有5个模式一致模拟显示末次冰盛期东亚季风减弱,冬季和夏季减幅分别为1%-18%和2-32%;不同模式中东亚季风环流变化的空间分布存在差异,这主要源于该时期大尺度变冷和海平面气压梯度变化的空间分布不同;由于模式之间的差异和重建记录之间的不确定性,未来有待开展更多模拟和重建工作以更好地理解冰期东亚季风变化.

Maximum Correntropy Kalman Filtering for Non-Gaussian Systems With State Saturations and Stochastic Nonlinearities

This paper tackles the maximum correntropy Kalman filtering problem for discrete time-varying non-Gaussian systems subject to state saturations and stochastic nonlinearities. The stochastic nonlinearities, which take the form of statemultiplicative noises, are introduced in systems to describe the phenomenon of nonlinear disturbances. To resist non-Gaussian noises, we consider a new performance index called maximum correntropy criterion(MCC) which describes the similarity between two stochastic variables. To enhance the “robustness” of the kernel parameter selection on the resultant filtering performance, the Cauchy kernel function is adopted to calculate the corresponding correntropy. The goal of this paper is to design a Kalman-type filter for the underlying systems via maximizing the correntropy between the system state and its estimate. By taking advantage of an upper bound on the one-step prediction error covariance, a modified MCC-based performance index is constructed. Subsequently, with the assistance of a fixed-point theorem, the filter gain is obtained by maximizing the proposed cost function. In addition, a sufficient condition is deduced to ensure the uniqueness of the fixed point. Finally, the validity of the filtering method is tested by simulating a numerical example.

The study of a neutron spectrum unfolding method based on particle swarm optimization combined with maximum likelihood expectation maximization

The neutron spectrum unfolding by Bonner sphere spectrometer(BSS) is considered a complex multidimensional model,which requires complex mathematical methods to solve the first kind of Fredholm integral equation. In order to solve the problem of the maximum likelihood expectation maximization(MLEM) algorithm which is easy to suffer the pitfalls of local optima and the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm which is easy to get unreasonable flight direction and step length of particles, which leads to the invalid iteration and affect efficiency and accuracy, an improved PSO-MLEM algorithm, combined of PSO and MLEM algorithm, is proposed for neutron spectrum unfolding. The dynamic acceleration factor is used to balance the ability of global and local search, and improves the convergence speed and accuracy of the algorithm. Firstly, the Monte Carlo method was used to simulated the BSS to obtain the response function and count rates of BSS. In the simulation of count rate, four reference spectra from the IAEA Technical Report Series No. 403 were used as input parameters of the Monte Carlo method. The PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the neutron spectrum of the simulated data and was verified by the difference of the unfolded spectrum to the reference spectrum. Finally, the 252Cf neutron source was measured by BSS, and the PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the experimental neutron spectrum.Compared with maximum entropy deconvolution(MAXED), PSO and MLEM algorithm, the PSO-MLEM algorithm has fewer parameters and automatically adjusts the dynamic acceleration factor to solve the problem of local optima. The convergence speed of the PSO-MLEM algorithm is 1.4 times and 3.1 times that of the MLEM and PSO algorithms. Compared with PSO, MLEM and MAXED, the correlation coefficients of PSO-MLEM algorithm are increased by 33.1%, 33.5% and 1.9%, and the relative mean errors are decreased by 98.2%, 97.8% and 67.4%.

Flexible path planning-based reconfiguration strategy for maximum capacity utilization of battery pack

Maximizing the utilization of lithium-ion battery capacity is an important means to alleviate the range anxiety of electric vehicles.Battery pack inconsistency is the main limiting factor for improving battery pack capacity utilization,and poses major safety hazards to energy storage systems.To solve this problem,a maximum capacity utilization scheme based on a path planning algorithm is proposed.Specifically,the reconfigurable topology proposed is highly flexible and fault-tolerant,enabling battery pack consistency through alternating cell discharge and reducing the increased risk of short circuits due to relay error.The Dijkstra algorithm is used to find the optimal energy path,which can effectively remove faulty cells and find the current path with the best consistency of the battery pack and the lowest relay loss.Finally,the effectiveness of the scheme is verified by hardware-in-the-loop experiments,and the experimental results show that the state-of-charge SOC consistency of the battery pack at the end of discharge is increased by 34.18%,the relay energy loss is reduced by 0.16%,and the fault unit is effectively isolated.

A fuzzy control and neural network based rotor speed controller for maximum power point tracking in permanent magnet synchronous wind power generation system

When the wind speed changes significantly in a permanent magnet synchronous wind power generation system,the maximum power point cannot be easily determined in a timely manner.This study proposes a maximum power reference signal search method based on fuzzy control,which is an improvement to the climbing search method.A neural network-based parameter regulator is proposed to address external wind speed fluctuations,where the parameters of a proportional-integral controller is adjusted to accurately monitor the maximum power point under different wind speed conditions.Finally,the effectiveness of this method is verified via Simulink simulation.

Effects of site productivity on individual tree maximum basal area growth rates of Eucalyptus pilularis in subtropical Australia

Inventory data were available from 96 plots of even-aged,monoculture,tall-open forests of Eucalyptus pilularis Smith,aged 2-63 years,growing in sub-tropical regions along the east coast of Australia.A model was developed relating the maximum possible stem basal area growth rate of individual trees to their stem basal area.For any tree size,this maximum increased as site productivity increased.However,the size at which this maximum occurred decreased as productivity increased.Much research has shown that,at any stand age,trees of a particular stem basal area are taller on more productive sites than on less productive ones.Taller trees incur greater respiratory costs to ensure maintenance of the photo synthetic capacity of their canopies;this reduces their growth rates.It was concluded that trees with larger basal areas will have the maximum possible growth rate on a less productive site,whilst trees with smaller basal areas will have the maximum possible on a more productive site.The model developed may constitute the first stage of a complete individual tree growth model system to predict wood yields from these forests.

Weighted Maximum Likelihood Technique for Logistic Regression

In this paper, a weighted maximum likelihood technique (WMLT) for the logistic regression model is presented. This method depended on a weight function that is continuously adaptable using Mahalanobis distances for predictor variables. Under the model, the asymptotic consistency of the suggested estimator is demonstrated and properties of finite-sample are also investigated via simulation. In simulation studies and real data sets, it is observed that the newly proposed technique demonstrated the greatest performance among all estimators compared.

Seasonal variability of the mixed layer depth determined using an improved maximum angle method in the Arctic basins

To investigate the spatiotemporal variations in the mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Arctic basins,a new criterion to determine the MLD,called the improved maximum angle method(IMAM),was developed.A total of 45123 potential density profiles collected using Ice-Tethered Profilers(ITPs)in the Arctic basins during 2005-2021 were used to demonstrate the method’s effectiveness.By comparing the results obtained by the fixed threshold method(FTM),percentage threshold method(PTM),and maximum gradient method(MGM)for profiles in the Canada Basin,Makarov Basin,and Eurasian Basin,we determined that the quality index(1.0 for perfect identification of the MLD)of the IMAM regarding the assessment of the MLD determination method reached 0.94,which is much greater than those of other criteria.Moreover,two types of the density profiles were identified based on the mixed layer development stage.The MLDs of the typical profiles determined using the IMAM were found to have better consistency with the original definition.By utilizing the new mixed layer criterion,the seasonal variations and regional differences in the MLD in the Arctic basins were analyzed.Spatially,the summer and winter MLDs in the Canada Basin were the shallowest(13.55 m in summer,26.76 m in winter)than those in the Makarov(29.51 m in summer,49.08 m in winter)and Eurasian(20.36 m in summer,46.81 m in winter)basins due to the stable stratification in the upper ocean and the subsequent small effects of dynamic and thermodynamic processes(wind-driven stirring and brine rejection)in the Canada Basin.Seasonally,in the three Arctic basins,the average MLD was shallowest(22.77 m)in summer;it deepened through autumn and reached a winter maximum(41.12 m).

Delineation of Prospecting Prospect Area Based on Maximum Entropy Model

Taking the Dapingzhang copper-polymetallic deposit in Yunnan Province, China as the research object, the maximum entropy model was used to extract the mining information, and the mineral resource prediction model was established by using the exploration data of the deposit and related regions in this area, so as to determine the prospecting prospect area in the study area. In this paper, the Jacknife analysis module of maximum entropy model is used to quantitatively rank the importance of 39 geochemical element variables, and finally obtain the prospecting prospect map of the study area. The research results show that the Dapingzhang mining area has the potential to find hidden ore in the deep and surrounding areas, and the northern and southern ends and western sides of the rock ore control structural belt in the eastern region of the mining area have good prospecting prospects. The research results provide an important basis for the deployment of follow-up exploration work in the study area, and the maximum entropy model has a good application effect in mineral resources exploration.

Three-Drug Therapies in Psychiatry in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”—D.D. 23 Luglio 2023, Tempo Ordinario (3.00 e 10.20)

The present paper aims at showing the possible adoption in Psychiatry of a general methodology finalized to prescribe the most appropriate Therapy based on the knowledge of its correlative effects in advance, instead of recognizing them ex post. The specific case here considered is the “bipolar disorder”, in which the adoption of three different drugs is the most common practice, although with a possible differentiation between the prescription in the morning and in the evening, respectively. Thus, the proposed methodology will consider the Ordinal Interactions between the various drugs by evaluating their combined effects, which will result as being not a simple additive “sum”, because they are evaluated on the basis of the Maximum Ordinality Principle (MOP) and, in addition, in Adherence to the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”. In this way the Methodology here proposed is able to suggest how to account for the synergistic effects of the various drugs, especially when the latter are characterized by different concentrations and, at the same time, by generally different half-lives respectively.

Solution to the “Three-Body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, as a “Suggestion” for a Ri-Orientation of the Present Scientific Perspective in “Favor” of the “Irreducible Quality”

This paper presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle. In the first part, however, it starts with the Solution to the Solar System, made up of “11 Bodies”. This is because, in such a context, the “Three-body Problem” can be analyzed in its all descriptive possibilities. Nonetheless, the paper also presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” with reference to Systems totally independent from the Solar System, such as, for example, the “Triple Stars” and the “Triple Galaxies”. In this way, the paper offers a sufficiently complete framework concerning the Solution to the “Three-body Problem”, always in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, described in detail in Appendix A.

Ecological and hydrologic evolution history in the sensitive zone of both East Asian summer monsoon and Westerly since the Last Glacial Maximum

The Qilian Mountains,located in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is a sensitive zone of both East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and westerly winds(WW).The evolution history and driving mechanism of the ecosystem and hydrologic cycle in this region on long-term timescales have not yet been clarified.In this study,we comprehensively study the hydrologic and ecological evolution history in the sensitive zone since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM)by integrating surface sediments,paleoclimate records,TraCE-21ka transient simulations,and PMIP3-CMIP5 multi-model simulation.Results show that hydrologic and ecological proxies from surface sediments are significantly different from west to east and mainly divided into three sections:the monsoonaffected region in the eastern Qilian Mountains,the intersection region in the central Qilian Mountains,and the westerly-affected region in the western Qilian Mountains.Meanwhile,paleo-ecological and paleohydrologic reconstructions from the surroundings uncover a synchronous climate evolution that the EASM mainly controls the eastern Qilian Mountains and penetrates the central Qilian Mountains in monsoon intensity maximum,while the WW dominates the central and western Qilian Mountains on both glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales.The simulation results further bear out the glacial humid climate in the central and western Qilian Mountains caused by the enhanced WW,and the humidity maximum in the eastern Qilian Mountains controlled by the strong mid-Holocene monsoon.In general,east-west differences in climate pattern and response for the EASM and the WW are integrally stable on both short-term and long-term timescales.

Heuristic techniques for maximum likelihood localization of radioactive sources via a sensor network

Maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)is an effective method for localizing radioactive sources in a given area.However,it requires an exhaustive search for parameter estimation,which is time-consuming.In this study,heuristic techniques were employed to search for radiation source parameters that provide the maximum likelihood by using a network of sensors.Hence,the time consumption of MLE would be effectively reduced.First,the radiation source was detected using the k-sigma method.Subsequently,the MLE was applied for parameter estimation using the readings and positions of the detectors that have detected the radiation source.A comparative study was performed in which the estimation accuracy and time consump-tion of the MLE were evaluated for traditional methods and heuristic techniques.The traditional MLE was performed via a grid search method using fixed and multiple resolutions.Additionally,four commonly used heuristic algorithms were applied:the firefly algorithm(FFA),particle swarm optimization(PSO),ant colony optimization(ACO),and artificial bee colony(ABC).The experiment was conducted using real data collected by the Low Scatter Irradiator facility at the Savannah River National Laboratory as part of the Intelligent Radiation Sensing System program.The comparative study showed that the estimation time was 3.27 s using fixed resolution MLE and 0.59 s using multi-resolution MLE.The time consumption for the heuristic-based MLE was 0.75,0.03,0.02,and 0.059 s for FFA,PSO,ACO,and ABC,respectively.The location estimation error was approximately 0.4 m using either the grid search-based MLE or the heuristic-based MLE.Hence,heuristic-based MLE can provide comparable estimation accuracy through a less time-consuming process than traditional MLE.

Generativity of Self-Organizing Processes and Their Correlative Description in Terms of a Formal Language of Meta-Ordinal Generative Nature, in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the internal processes of Self-Organizing Systems represent a unique and singular process, characterized by their specific generativity. This process can be modeled using the Maximum Ordinality Principle and its associated formal language, known as the “Incipient” Differential Calculus (IDC).

Joint polarization and DOA estimation based on improved maximum likelihood estimator and performance analysis for conformal array

The conformal array can make full use of the aperture,save space,meet the requirements of aerodynamics,and is sensitive to polarization information.It has broad application prospects in military,aerospace,and communication fields.The joint polarization and direction-of-arrival(DOA)estimation based on the conformal array and the theoretical analysis of its parameter estimation performance are the key factors to promote the engineering application of the conformal array.To solve these problems,this paper establishes the wave field signal model of the conformal array.Then,for the case of a single target,the cost function of the maximum likelihood(ML)estimator is rewritten with Rayleigh quotient from a problem of maximizing the ratio of quadratic forms into those of minimizing quadratic forms.On this basis,rapid parameter estimation is achieved with the idea of manifold separation technology(MST).Compared with the modified variable projection(MVP)algorithm,it reduces the computational complexity and improves the parameter estimation performance.Meanwhile,the MST is used to solve the partial derivative of the steering vector.Then,the theoretical performance of ML,the multiple signal classification(MUSIC)estimator and Cramer-Rao bound(CRB)based on the conformal array are derived respectively,which provides theoretical foundation for the engineering application of the conformal array.Finally,the simulation experiment verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Application of Machine-Learning-Based Objective Correction Method in the Intelligent Grid Maximum and Minimum Temperature Predictions

Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).