Poisson-Gumbel Model for Wind Speed Threshold Estimation of Maximum Wind Speed

Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution.However,few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model.In this study,a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed.We set 0%,5%,10%,20%and 30%gradient thresholds.Then,we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods.The results showed that:(1)When the threshold increases,the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually.This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods.Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence,it shortens the length of the sample sequence,resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed.However,this deviation is not large.Taking the common 10%threshold as an example,the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%;(2)Theoretically,the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution,but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion.Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can makeχ2 decrease,the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182.Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example,theχ2 of 20%threshold was as high as 6.35,meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.

The Change in the Maximum Wind Speed and the Impact of it on Agricultural Production

Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The results show that over thirty-nine years, the annual maximum wind speed in four seasons in Zhucheng City tends to decline. The annual maximum wind speed declines at the rate of 1.45 m/s every 10 years. It falls fastest in winter, with decline rate of 1.73 m/s every 10 years; it is close to the average annual maximum wind speed in spring and autumn, with decline rate of 1.44 m/s and 14.8 m/s every 10 years, respectively; it falls slowest in summer, and the extreme value of the maximum wind speed occurs mainly in spring. The curve of changes in the monthly maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City assumes diminishing shape of "two peaks and one trough". We conduct preliminary analysis of the windy weather situation, and put forth specific defensive measures against the hazards of strong winds in the different periods.

On maximum power point tracking control strategy for variable speed constant frequency wind power generation

Based on the characteristic of AC-excited variable speed constant frequency(VSCF)wind power generation,the vector control technique was applied in a doubly fed induction generator(DFIG).Maximum wind energy or maximum output power point can be tracked by decoupling control of active power and reactive power.The research result shows that the net power of generation system delivered to grid in maximum wind energy tracking mode is not the most.We presented a novel maximum power point tracking(MPPT)control strategy by analyzing the DFIG mathematic model and power relations which delivered the maximum power to the grid.The maximum power point could be tracked automatically without measuring wind speed in the control strategy and the control was independent of optimal turbine power curve,which had excellent dynamic and static performances and robustness.Simulation and experimental results testify the accuracy and validity of the control strategy.

考虑车流速度分布扰动的干道绿波最大带宽协调控制

城市车辆速度受多种因素影响呈现某种分布,鲁棒的干道协调控制模型应考虑不同速度下的车辆带宽需求。针对速度波动变化干道传统协调控制方法适用性差的问题,分析了带干扰的干道车辆速度时空分布特征,以推荐速度带宽最大与期望带宽最大为目标,提出了考虑车流速度分布扰动的干道绿波最大带宽协调控制方法。针对佛山市同济路4交叉口干道,速度分布扰动干道协调方法能够提供更符合车辆分布特性的协调方案,比Maxband模型和改进的Maxband模型提升约70%和14%的期望带宽。研究结果表明:笔者方法能够降低Maxband模型平均停车次数25%,平均延误45%和平均排队长度17%;针对不同速度期望和方差情况下的灵敏度分析实验表明,该方法能够为干道提供更具有鲁棒性的干道协调控制方案。

玻璃破碎新鲜表面吸气特性及其诱导下快速抽气新方法研究

高真空获得及维持技术对微纳材料制备、微电子设备制造、真空电子器件工艺优化等领域的科学研究及工业应用至关重要。文章面向高真空获得及维持过程中吸气材料吸气机理解析及寻优材料替代之关键科学问题,致力于克服传统高真空技术维持高真空状态能耗高、传统高真空获得方法依赖于昂贵设备和复杂操作等缺陷,提出了一种基于玻璃破碎新鲜表面诱发高真空获得及压力下限突破的新方法;文章首先开展了吸气成分及分压力测试实验及最大有效抽速实验研究。实验结果表明新鲜玻璃破碎表面具备吸气效应;解析玻璃新鲜表面吸附的主要气体成分及分压力变化,剖析出主要吸附气体组分为氢气和氮气;定量评估了新方法的抽气能力,利用蒙特卡洛方法仿真分析了泵出口管道的传输概率,获得新方法的最大有 效抽速。相比现有真空获得和维持技术,文章所提出的新方法具有易激活、材料性价比高、抽速可观等优势,有助于为狭小 空间高真空获得及维持提供新型技术途径及应用有效性参考。

大规模云计算网络用户短时需求任务调度优化算法

设计一种大规模云计算网络用户短时需求任务调度优化算法,在较短的时间内处理大量的云计算任务,以满足用户短时需求。建立一个大规模云计算网络任务调度模型,将大规模云计算网络任务分配到各个虚拟机节点上,快速完成用户的短时需求任务;再通过遗传算法的个体编解码、自适应函数和遗传操作获取最优任务调度结果;并引入模拟退火算法,在遗传算法获取最佳调度结果的基础上进行局部搜索,直到迭代完成,输出最终的大规模云计算网络用户短时需求任务调度的全局最优解。实验结果表明:所设计算法能够实时关注用户任务执行状态以及用户任务执行时间;当用户任务数量为220时,该算法的单节点最大执行时间约为0.27 s,可提升整个任务调度的性能和效率;且该算法获取任务调度结果的收敛速度快、精度高。

沅水光泽黄颡鱼和鲫的临界游泳速度和最大游泳速度比较

为了分析洞庭水系鱼类趋流特性的生态适应性及为水域渔业资源保护提供基本数据,在水温(20.0±1.5)℃和自然光周期下,用实验室自制的鱼类运动测试水槽和递增流速法测定了沅水中游常德河洑江段体长(13.94±1.85)cm光泽黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus nitidus)和体长(12.28±1.42)cm鲫(Carassius auratus)的临界游泳速度及最大游泳速度等参数,分析两种鱼这两个参数与体长等因素的关联及差异。外置变频器调节电机功率改变螺旋桨的转速而呈不同流速。1 BL·s^(-1)时开始实验,每15 s提高流速2 cm·s^(-1),直到鱼变疲劳在拦网处停止游泳20 s时的水流速度就是该鱼的最大游泳速度(U_(max),单位cm·s^(-1))和相对最大游泳速度(U_(max)^(r))[(=U_(max)/BL(体长),单位BL·s^(-1))]。流速慢慢增至60%U_(crit)估计值下,实验鱼持续游动15 min后,将增加15%U_(crit)估计值,之后继续以这种方式不断提升流速,至实验鱼达到运动力竭状态不能继续游泳为止。记录此时电机频率并把实验鱼从观察区移出来放入休息区,记录实验鱼的形态参数和达到力竭状态的前一档游泳时间,计算临界游泳速度U_(crit)和相对临界游泳速度(U_(crit)^(r),单位为BL·s^(-1))。结果表明:光泽黄颡鱼的U_(crit)和U_(crit)^(r)分别为(39.21±3.41)cm·s^(-1)和(2.83±0.15)BL·s^(-1),其U_(max)和U_(max)^(r)分别为(28.96±3.44)cm·s^(-1)和(2.08±0.04)BL·s^(-1);鲫的U_(crit)和U_(crit)^(r)分别为(40.78±2.15)cm·s^(-1)和(3.34±0.23)BL·s^(-1),其U_(max)和U_(max)^(r)分别为(39.67±3.14)cm·s^(-1)和(3.24±0.14)BL·s^(-1)。依据结果,取得不同鱼类临界游泳速度、最大游泳速度与体长的线性和非线性函数显著相关模型(P<0.05)。光泽黄颡鱼和鲫的绝对临界游泳速度差异不显著(P>0.05),但绝对最大游泳速度、相对临界游泳速度和相对最大游泳速度差异极显著(P<0.01)。鲫的U_(max)^(r)和U_(crit)^(r)都显著高于光泽黄颡鱼。本实验结果可为不同鱼类运动生理生态的适应机制及过鱼设施的设计提供相应支持。

不同桨叶数量的高转速明轮推进性能

【目的】研究不同桨叶数量的高转速明轮推进器力学特性,以解决目前高转速明轮推进器流场特性不清晰的问题。【方法】采用计算流体力学,基于N-S方程,对系列桨叶在不同转速下的推力、升力、力矩以及流场特性等进行研究,并与试验结果进行对比分析。【结果与结论】本研究提出的计算方法对于高转速明轮的推力在v<5 m/s和v=9 m/s牵引航速段时误差较大,但在峰值v=7 m/s附近误差普遍在9%以下,且总体变化趋势与试验结果接近;明轮在不同牵引航速和不同转速下均有一个最佳推力曲线,且桨叶数量不同时最佳的推力也存在差异;明轮在牵引航速v<5 m/s时有轻微颤振,主要由于桨叶的进流角设计与牵引航速不完全匹配有关,而过高的转速(r>2500 r/min)不会对明轮的推进效率产生增益;在高牵引航速(v>8 m/s)状态下可以通过增加桨叶数量的方式提高明轮的推进效率。

高速挖掘机涉水条件下的机动能力仿真与评估

高速挖掘机的机动性能是装备遂行工程保障行动效率的重要指标之一,涉水条件是高速挖掘机在机动过程中经常遇到的自然条件,结合这一常见环境影响因素,基于实装数据,构建装备仿真模型,分析涉水条件下的动力学模型.以高速挖掘机的最高行驶速度和加速能力两个方面为例,开展高速挖掘机涉水条件下的机动性能仿真与评估研究,计算得到不同涉水深度和不同水流流速条件下的加速时间、最高行驶速度,能够为科学研判高速挖掘机的相关机动性能提供理论参考,为高速挖掘机使用单位提供借鉴指导.

改进差分进化的光伏最大功率点跟踪

针对现有差分进化算法在局部遮阴情况下跟踪速度慢的问题,提出一种新的改进差分进化算法的光伏发电系统最大功率点跟踪控制策略。首先,引入三角突变策略,并将其嵌入传统差分进化算法的交叉公式当中,避免因迭代前后输出相同的占空比造成重复采样功率的情况。其次,引入自适应比例因子策略,以加强个体的收敛性。最后,通过奖励惩罚机制平衡所提算法的全局开发和局部探索能力。仿真结果表明,与对比文献的差分进化算法相比,改进算法在跟踪速度、稳定性方面具有显著的优势。

钦州市50年重现期基本风压及分布规律分析

利用钦州市辖区19个气象观测站建站以来至2022年的风速资料,采用数理统计等方法推算重现期为50a的最大风速,研究分析基本风压值及其分布规律。结果表明,钦州市基本风速为11.7~40.4m·s^(-1),基本风压在0.08k~0.97kN·m^(-2)之间,二者总体上均呈沿海向内陆逐渐减小的分布特征。钦州国家基本气象站的基本风压计算值为0.51kN·m^(-2),与《建筑结构荷载规范》推荐值的差值最小,为0.04kN·m^(-2),可为当地提供更精细的基本风压参考。

插入式永磁同步电主轴无传感器弱磁控制技术研究

为了提高电主轴的电流利用率和鲁棒性,在矢量控制的基础上,对插入式永磁同步电主轴进行研究。对最大转矩电流比控制的四阶方程进行标幺化处理,采用拟合曲线的方式对方程进行近似求解;利用弱磁调速扩展主轴的速度范围。通过滑模观测器估算电主轴转速,为了改善传统滑模观测器的抖振问题,将Sigmoid函数引进传统滑模观测器中,通过李雅普诺夫判据对所提策略的稳定性进行推导说明。以实验室中高速磨削电主轴FL170-20-15为例,通过以上算法搭建基于MATLAB的仿真实验平台进行实验验证,并分析该控制策略的效果。实验结果表明:采用该方法的高速磨削电主轴减小了滑模观测的抖振现象,提高了控制系统的鲁棒性。

基于孤立森林法风电机组数据处理方法分析

为验证中小型风电机组中被动侧偏限速机构合理性,针对中小型风电机组实测数据处理,提出了一种数据处理方法,采用孤立森林法对误差失真数据进行筛选剔除预处理,再运用比恩法进行数据选点,曲线拟合方法采用多项式拟合,多项式拟合系数由最小二乘法确定。得到对于被动侧偏限速的风电机组风功率曲线的处理方法。选取被动侧偏限速FD4.0-2kW/10风电机组进行算例分析,论证该数据处理方法的有效性,后并建立风能利用率与尖速比之间的关系,对FD4.0-2kW/10风电机组性能进行分析得出,在13 m/s以上时,机组输出功率开始下降,表明该机组侧偏限速机构设计合理、安全性较高。

Progress in high-speed train technology around the world

This is a review of high-speed train development in the sense of technology advances all over the world. Three generations of high-speed trains are classified according to their technical characteristics and maximum operating speed. Emphasis is given to the newly developed high-speed train in China, CRH380. The theoretical foundations and future development of CRH380 are briefly discussed.

低真空隧道列车车厢内部火灾温度分布特征

为解决低真空隧道内高速列车运营时,火灾突发事件中出现的危险性、列车结构的完整性及人员安全等问题,以低真空隧道内的高速列车车厢为研究对象,首先用数值模拟的方法,探究着火车厢内部发生火灾后的温度衰减特征;然后分析相邻车厢内部的温度分布情况;最后研究着火车厢内部最大温度的分布特征。结果表明:着火车厢及相邻车厢顶棚处沿着纵向的温度呈指数形式衰减;相邻车厢内,功率对温度衰减影响较大,即:低火源功率(0.3~0.6 MW)下,高温烟气蔓延相对较弱,相邻车厢内乘客相对安全;中火源功率(0.7~1.1 MW)下,高温烟气蔓延显著,由于受到车厢壁面以及车门的影响出现温度突变点;高火源功率(1.2~1.5 MW)下,热羽流强度较高,高温烟气蔓延受车厢壁面以及车门的影响相对较小,在车厢连接部分与相邻车厢内的高温蔓延趋势基本一致。车厢内的最大温度与火源功率及火源至顶棚的距离有关,并存在线性关系。

The response of collision speed caused by the large bus to new flexible barrier

In order to study the response of collision speed caused by the large bus to new flexible barrier,in this paper,with the large bus as the carrier,the full-scale impact tests between flexible barrier and vehicle with the impact velocities of 40 km/h and 60 km/h were carried out separately,following the procedures of the test preparation,test processing,data acquisition, etc,which were based on the test platform of the Large Structure Crash Testing Laboratory of Changsha University of Science and Technology. The important test results which contain the damage of vehicles and barrier,the moving locus of vehicle,the occupant risk index,the maximum dynamic deformation, etc,were obtained through the analysis under the different collision speeds. These provide the necessary reference basis for the further research on the structure topology optimization and improve the comprehensive constraint performance to the flexible barrier.

A New Method for Calculating the Wind Speed Distribution of a Moving Tropical Cyclone

Based on gradient wind equations, including frictional force, and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed, the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified, and the numerical scheme for calculating the maximum wind speed radius and wind velocity distribution of a moving tropical cyclone is derived. In addition, the effect of frictional force on the internal structure of the tropical cyclone is discussed. By comparison with observational data, this numerical scheme demonstrates great advantages, i.e. it can not only describe the asymmetrical wind speed distribution of a tropical cyclone reasonably, but can also calculate the maximum wind speed in each direction within the typhoon domain much more accurately. Furthermore, the combination of calculated and analyzed wind speed distributions by the scheme is perfectly consistent with observations.

Age factor affects reading acuity and reading speed in attaining text information

AIM: To investigate the effect of age on reading acuity and reading speed in attaining text information in healthy eyes.METHODS: Reading acuity, critical print size, reading speed and maximum reading speed were measured in groups of 40 children (8 to 12 years old), 40 teenagers (13 to 19 years old), 40 young adults (20 to 39 years old), and 40 adults (40 years old and above) using the Buari-Chen Malay Reading Chart [contextual sentences (CS) set and random words (RW) set] in a cross-sectional study design.RESULTS: Reading acuity was significantly improved by 0.04 logMAR for both CS set and RW set from children to teenagers, then gradually worsened from young adults to adults (CS set: 0.06 logMAR;RW set: 0.08 logMAR). Critical print size for children showed a significant improvement in teenagers (CS set: 0.14 logMAR;RW set: 0.07 logMAR), then deteriorated from young adults to adults by 0.09 logMAR only for CS set. Reading speed significantly increased from children to teenagers,[CS set: 46.20 words per minute (wpm);RW set: 42.06 wpm], then stabilized from teenagers to young adults, and significantly reduced from young adults to adults (CS set: 28.58 wpm;RW set: 24.44 wpm). Increment and decrement in maximum reading speed measurement were revealed from children to teenagers (CS set: 39.38 wpm;RW set: 43.38 wpm) and from young adults to adults (CS set: 22.26 wpm;RW set: 26.31 wpm) respectively.CONCLUSION: The reference of age-related findings in term of acuity and speed of reading should be incorporated in clinical practice to enhance reading assessment among healthy eyes population.

基于SVM和最大熵模型的桥梁极值风速预测研究

大跨度桥梁对极值风荷载作用十分敏感,基于桥址处长期实测风速数据得到合理的极值风速至关重要。由于在桥址处进行长期风速监测较难实现,研究极值风速预测方法对于大跨度桥梁抗风研究具有重要意义。以泉州湾高速铁路斜拉桥为工程背景,提出一种基于支持向量机(SVM)和最大熵模型的极值风速预测方法。通过临近风速观测塔与桥面风速仪同步实测短期风速数据建立SVM风速预测模型,预测得到桥面长达3 a的平均风速数据,进而采用最大熵方法计算得到桥梁高度处不同重现期内极值风速,最后采用时域分析方法进行桥梁抖振响应分析,探讨不同风速下桥梁抖振响应的差异。研究结果表明:SVM模型应用于风速预测效果比较理想,测试集预测风速与实测风速均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为0.115和0.252。基于桥面预测平均风速样本,采用最大熵理论计算得到100 a重现期极值风速为21.52 m/s,小于泉州湾高铁斜拉桥抗风设计时采用的极值风速49.4 m/s。SVM模型预测得到的极值风速对应的主梁跨中位置横向、竖向和Rotx扭转抖振位移响应峰值与采用设计风速为49.4 m/s的桥梁抖振响应比较,降幅分别为80.3%,79.6%和78.7%。桥梁抖振响应受平均风速影响较大,选择准确的桥址处极值风速对桥梁抖振响应研究至关重要。研究结果可应用于仅有短期实测风速数据的桥梁得到合理的极值风速,为大跨度桥梁抗风研究提供参考。