In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to cont...In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to control the power output for wind power generators as accurately as possible, a method of wind speed estimation is required. In this paper, a technique considers that wind speed in the order of 1 - 30 seconds is investigated in confirming the validity of the Auto Regressive model (AR), Kalman Filter (KF) and Neural Network (NN) to forecast wind speed. This paper compares the simulation results of the forecast wind speed for the power output forecast of wind power generator by using AR, KF and NN.展开更多
Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause catastrophic damage and loss of life worldwide.Accurately predicting landslide displacement enables effective early warning and risk management.However,the limit...Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause catastrophic damage and loss of life worldwide.Accurately predicting landslide displacement enables effective early warning and risk management.However,the limited availability of on-site measurement data has been a substantial obstacle in developing data-driven models,such as state-of-the-art machine learning(ML)models.To address these challenges,this study proposes a data augmentation framework that uses generative adversarial networks(GANs),a recent advance in generative artificial intelligence(AI),to improve the accuracy of landslide displacement prediction.The framework provides effective data augmentation to enhance limited datasets.A recurrent GAN model,RGAN-LS,is proposed,specifically designed to generate realistic synthetic multivariate time series that mimics the characteristics of real landslide on-site measurement data.A customized moment-matching loss is incorporated in addition to the adversarial loss in GAN during the training of RGAN-LS to capture the temporal dynamics and correlations in real time series data.Then,the synthetic data generated by RGAN-LS is used to enhance the training of long short-term memory(LSTM)networks and particle swarm optimization-support vector machine(PSO-SVM)models for landslide displacement prediction tasks.Results on two landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)region show a significant improvement in LSTM model prediction performance when trained on augmented data.For instance,in the case of the Baishuihe landslide,the average root mean square error(RMSE)increases by 16.11%,and the mean absolute error(MAE)by 17.59%.More importantly,the model’s responsiveness during mutational stages is enhanced for early warning purposes.However,the results have shown that the static PSO-SVM model only sees marginal gains compared to recurrent models such as LSTM.Further analysis indicates that an optimal synthetic-to-real data ratio(50%on the illustration cases)maximizes the improvements.This also demonstrates the robustness and effectiveness of supplementing training data for dynamic models to obtain better results.By using the powerful generative AI approach,RGAN-LS can generate high-fidelity synthetic landslide data.This is critical for improving the performance of advanced ML models in predicting landslide displacement,particularly when there are limited training data.Additionally,this approach has the potential to expand the use of generative AI in geohazard risk management and other research areas.展开更多
Recently, fault or health condition prediction of complex systems becomes an interesting research topic. However, it is difficult to establish precise physical model for complex systems, and the time series properties...Recently, fault or health condition prediction of complex systems becomes an interesting research topic. However, it is difficult to establish precise physical model for complex systems, and the time series properties are often necessary to be incorporated for the prediction in practice. Currently, the LS-SVR is widely adopted for prediction of systems with time series data. In this paper, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, accumulated generating operation （AGO） is carried out to improve the data quality and regularity of raw time series data based on grey system theory; then, the inverse accumulated generating operation （IAGO） is performed to obtain the prediction results. In addition, due to the reason that appropriate kernel function plays an important role in improving the accuracy of prediction through LS-SVR, a modified Gaussian radial basis function （RBF） is proposed. The requirements of distance functions-based kernel functions are satisfied, which ensure fast damping at the place adjacent to the test point and a moderate damping at infinity. The presented model is applied to the analysis of benchmarks. As indicated by the results, the proposed method is an effective prediction one with good precision.展开更多
This study presents an extended version of a single site daily weather generator after Richardson. The model is driven by daily precipitation series derived by a first-order two-state Markov chain and considers the an...This study presents an extended version of a single site daily weather generator after Richardson. The model is driven by daily precipitation series derived by a first-order two-state Markov chain and considers the annual cycle of each meteorological variable. The evaluation of its performance was done by deploying its synthetic time series into the physical based hydrological model BROOK90. The weather generator was applied and tested for data from the Anchor Station at the Tharandt Forest, Germany. Additionally its results were compared to the output of another weather generator with spell-length approach for the precipitation series (LARS-WG). The comparison was distinguished into a meteoro-logical and a hydrological part in terms of extremes, monthly and annual sums and averages. Extreme events could be preserved adequately by both models. Nevertheless a general underestimation of rare events was observed. Natural correlations between vapour pressure and minimum temperature could be conserved as well as annual cycles of the hydro-logical and meteorological regime. But the simulated spectrums of extremes, especially, of precipitation and temperature, are more limited than the observed spectrums. While LARS-WG already finds application in practice, the results show that the data derived from the presented weather generator is as useful and reliable as those from the established model for the simulation of the water balance.展开更多
Renewable and nonrenewable energy sources are widely incorporated for solar and wind energy that produces electricity without increasing carbon dioxide emissions.Energy industries worldwide are trying hard to predict ...Renewable and nonrenewable energy sources are widely incorporated for solar and wind energy that produces electricity without increasing carbon dioxide emissions.Energy industries worldwide are trying hard to predict future energy consumption that could eliminate over or under contracting energy resources and unnecessary financing.Machine learning techniques for predicting energy are the trending solution to overcome the challenges faced by energy companies.The basic need for machine learning algorithms to be trained for accurate prediction requires a considerable amount of data.Another critical factor is balancing the data for enhanced prediction.Data Augmentation is a technique used for increasing the data available for training.Synthetic data are the generation of new data which can be trained to improve the accuracy of prediction models.In this paper,we propose a model that takes time series energy consumption data as input,pre-processes the data,and then uses multiple augmentation techniques and generative adversarial networks to generate synthetic data which when combined with the original data,reduces energy consumption prediction error.We propose TGAN-skip-Improved-WGAN-GP to generate synthetic energy consumption time series tabular data.We modify TGANwith skip connections,then improveWGANGPby defining a consistency term,and finally use the architecture of improved WGAN-GP for training TGAN-skip.We used various evaluation metrics and visual representation to compare the performance of our proposed model.We also measured prediction accuracy along with mean and maximum error generated while predicting with different variations of augmented and synthetic data with original data.The mode collapse problemcould be handled by TGAN-skip-Improved-WGAN-GP model and it also converged faster than existing GAN models for synthetic data generation.The experiment result shows that our proposed technique of combining synthetic data with original data could significantly reduce the prediction error rate and increase the prediction accuracy of energy consumption.展开更多
Long-term prediction is still a difficult problem in data mining.People usually use various kinds of methods of Recurrent Neural Network to predict.However,with the increase of the prediction step,the accuracy of pred...Long-term prediction is still a difficult problem in data mining.People usually use various kinds of methods of Recurrent Neural Network to predict.However,with the increase of the prediction step,the accuracy of prediction decreases rapidly.In order to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction,we propose a framework Variational Auto-Encoder Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(VAECGAN).Our model is divided into three parts.The first part is the encoder net,which can encode the exogenous sequence into latent space vectors and fully save the information carried by the exogenous sequence.The second part is the generator net which is responsible for generating prediction data.In the third part,the discriminator net is used to classify and feedback,adjust data generation and improve prediction accuracy.Finally,extensive empirical studies tested with five real-world datasets(NASDAQ,SML,Energy,EEG,KDDCUP)demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed approach.展开更多
文摘In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to control the power output for wind power generators as accurately as possible, a method of wind speed estimation is required. In this paper, a technique considers that wind speed in the order of 1 - 30 seconds is investigated in confirming the validity of the Auto Regressive model (AR), Kalman Filter (KF) and Neural Network (NN) to forecast wind speed. This paper compares the simulation results of the forecast wind speed for the power output forecast of wind power generator by using AR, KF and NN.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20220421)the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42230702)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.82302352).
文摘Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause catastrophic damage and loss of life worldwide.Accurately predicting landslide displacement enables effective early warning and risk management.However,the limited availability of on-site measurement data has been a substantial obstacle in developing data-driven models,such as state-of-the-art machine learning(ML)models.To address these challenges,this study proposes a data augmentation framework that uses generative adversarial networks(GANs),a recent advance in generative artificial intelligence(AI),to improve the accuracy of landslide displacement prediction.The framework provides effective data augmentation to enhance limited datasets.A recurrent GAN model,RGAN-LS,is proposed,specifically designed to generate realistic synthetic multivariate time series that mimics the characteristics of real landslide on-site measurement data.A customized moment-matching loss is incorporated in addition to the adversarial loss in GAN during the training of RGAN-LS to capture the temporal dynamics and correlations in real time series data.Then,the synthetic data generated by RGAN-LS is used to enhance the training of long short-term memory(LSTM)networks and particle swarm optimization-support vector machine(PSO-SVM)models for landslide displacement prediction tasks.Results on two landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)region show a significant improvement in LSTM model prediction performance when trained on augmented data.For instance,in the case of the Baishuihe landslide,the average root mean square error(RMSE)increases by 16.11%,and the mean absolute error(MAE)by 17.59%.More importantly,the model’s responsiveness during mutational stages is enhanced for early warning purposes.However,the results have shown that the static PSO-SVM model only sees marginal gains compared to recurrent models such as LSTM.Further analysis indicates that an optimal synthetic-to-real data ratio(50%on the illustration cases)maximizes the improvements.This also demonstrates the robustness and effectiveness of supplementing training data for dynamic models to obtain better results.By using the powerful generative AI approach,RGAN-LS can generate high-fidelity synthetic landslide data.This is critical for improving the performance of advanced ML models in predicting landslide displacement,particularly when there are limited training data.Additionally,this approach has the potential to expand the use of generative AI in geohazard risk management and other research areas.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation(NNSF)of China under Grant No.61371024Aviation Science Fund of China under Grant No.2013ZD53051+1 种基金Aerospace Technology Support Fund of Chinathe Industry-Academy-Research Project of AVIC(cxy2013XGD14)
文摘Recently, fault or health condition prediction of complex systems becomes an interesting research topic. However, it is difficult to establish precise physical model for complex systems, and the time series properties are often necessary to be incorporated for the prediction in practice. Currently, the LS-SVR is widely adopted for prediction of systems with time series data. In this paper, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, accumulated generating operation （AGO） is carried out to improve the data quality and regularity of raw time series data based on grey system theory; then, the inverse accumulated generating operation （IAGO） is performed to obtain the prediction results. In addition, due to the reason that appropriate kernel function plays an important role in improving the accuracy of prediction through LS-SVR, a modified Gaussian radial basis function （RBF） is proposed. The requirements of distance functions-based kernel functions are satisfied, which ensure fast damping at the place adjacent to the test point and a moderate damping at infinity. The presented model is applied to the analysis of benchmarks. As indicated by the results, the proposed method is an effective prediction one with good precision.
基金supported by the German Academic Exchange Service(DAAD).
文摘This study presents an extended version of a single site daily weather generator after Richardson. The model is driven by daily precipitation series derived by a first-order two-state Markov chain and considers the annual cycle of each meteorological variable. The evaluation of its performance was done by deploying its synthetic time series into the physical based hydrological model BROOK90. The weather generator was applied and tested for data from the Anchor Station at the Tharandt Forest, Germany. Additionally its results were compared to the output of another weather generator with spell-length approach for the precipitation series (LARS-WG). The comparison was distinguished into a meteoro-logical and a hydrological part in terms of extremes, monthly and annual sums and averages. Extreme events could be preserved adequately by both models. Nevertheless a general underestimation of rare events was observed. Natural correlations between vapour pressure and minimum temperature could be conserved as well as annual cycles of the hydro-logical and meteorological regime. But the simulated spectrums of extremes, especially, of precipitation and temperature, are more limited than the observed spectrums. While LARS-WG already finds application in practice, the results show that the data derived from the presented weather generator is as useful and reliable as those from the established model for the simulation of the water balance.
基金This research was financially supported by the Ministry of Small and Mediumsized Enterprises(SMEs)and Startups(MSS),Korea,under the“Regional Specialized Industry Development Program(R&D,S3091627)”supervised by Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT).
文摘Renewable and nonrenewable energy sources are widely incorporated for solar and wind energy that produces electricity without increasing carbon dioxide emissions.Energy industries worldwide are trying hard to predict future energy consumption that could eliminate over or under contracting energy resources and unnecessary financing.Machine learning techniques for predicting energy are the trending solution to overcome the challenges faced by energy companies.The basic need for machine learning algorithms to be trained for accurate prediction requires a considerable amount of data.Another critical factor is balancing the data for enhanced prediction.Data Augmentation is a technique used for increasing the data available for training.Synthetic data are the generation of new data which can be trained to improve the accuracy of prediction models.In this paper,we propose a model that takes time series energy consumption data as input,pre-processes the data,and then uses multiple augmentation techniques and generative adversarial networks to generate synthetic data which when combined with the original data,reduces energy consumption prediction error.We propose TGAN-skip-Improved-WGAN-GP to generate synthetic energy consumption time series tabular data.We modify TGANwith skip connections,then improveWGANGPby defining a consistency term,and finally use the architecture of improved WGAN-GP for training TGAN-skip.We used various evaluation metrics and visual representation to compare the performance of our proposed model.We also measured prediction accuracy along with mean and maximum error generated while predicting with different variations of augmented and synthetic data with original data.The mode collapse problemcould be handled by TGAN-skip-Improved-WGAN-GP model and it also converged faster than existing GAN models for synthetic data generation.The experiment result shows that our proposed technique of combining synthetic data with original data could significantly reduce the prediction error rate and increase the prediction accuracy of energy consumption.
基金the Youth Talent Star of Institute of Information Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y7Z0091105)This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61771469.
文摘Long-term prediction is still a difficult problem in data mining.People usually use various kinds of methods of Recurrent Neural Network to predict.However,with the increase of the prediction step,the accuracy of prediction decreases rapidly.In order to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction,we propose a framework Variational Auto-Encoder Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(VAECGAN).Our model is divided into three parts.The first part is the encoder net,which can encode the exogenous sequence into latent space vectors and fully save the information carried by the exogenous sequence.The second part is the generator net which is responsible for generating prediction data.In the third part,the discriminator net is used to classify and feedback,adjust data generation and improve prediction accuracy.Finally,extensive empirical studies tested with five real-world datasets(NASDAQ,SML,Energy,EEG,KDDCUP)demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed approach.
