Medium Term Load Forecasting for Jordan Electric Power System Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Least Square Regression Methods

This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid for year of 2015. Linear, quadratic and exponential forecast models have been examined to perform this study and compared with the Auto Regressive (AR) model. MTLF models were influenced by the weather which should be considered when predicting the future peak load demand in terms of months and weeks. The main contribution for this paper is the conduction of MTLF study for Jordan on weekly and monthly basis using real data obtained from National Electric Power Company NEPCO. This study is aimed to develop practical models and algorithm techniques for MTLF to be used by the operators of Jordan power grid. The results are compared with the actual peak load data to attain minimum percentage error. The value of the forecasted weekly and monthly peak loads obtained from these models is examined using Least Square Error (LSE). Actual reported data from NEPCO are used to analyze the performance of the proposed approach and the results are reported and compared with the results obtained from PSO algorithm and AR model.

Studies on hybridization effects of different geographic populations of Chlamys farreri Ⅱ.The medium-term growth and development of Chlamys farreri populations from China and Russia and their reciprocal crosses

Based on the research of juvenile (2, 3, 4 months) growth and survival of three populations of two different geographic areas in Chlamys farreri from Russian and China and their F1 hybrids derived from Chinese cultural population (CC) (?) × Russian population (RW) (?) , Chinese wild population (CW) (?) × Russian population (RW) (?), Russian population (RW) (?) × Chinese wild population (CW) (?) , the study of the medium-term (6, 8, 10, 12 months) growth and development of Chlamys farreri was carried out. The four determined results indicated that there existed different extent heterosis (3% -52%) for the growth in three types of F1 hybrids, and the offspring derived from CC(?) ×R(?) had a stronger heterosis among the crosses at the medium-term; the uptrend among traits are wet weight >shell width>shell length> shell height, Chinese cultural population could be recognized as excellent parent, and seasonal variations influence very much on the daily increment and growth rate of each trait of Chlamys farreri and it is only able to survive and could barely grow in winter (6-8 months), but grows fast in temperate season (10-12 months).

Medium-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Multivariable Linear and Non-Linear Regression

Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to one year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. We propose a new methodol-ogy that uses hourly daily loads to predict the next year hourly loads, and hence predict the peak loads expected to be reached in the next coming year. The technique is based on implementing multivariable regression on previous year's hourly loads. Three regression models are investigated in this research: the linear, the polynomial, and the exponential power. The proposed models are applied to real loads of the Jordanian power system. Results obtained using the pro-posed methods showed that their performance is close and they outperform results obtained using the widely used ex-ponential regression technique. Moreover, peak load prediction has about 90% accuracy using the proposed method-ology. The methods are generic and simple and can be implemented to hourly loads of any power system. No extra in-formation other than the hourly loads is required.

Research on TSIP method for medium－term earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the space increased probability of strong earthquakes (SIP)-a new design based on the algorithm CN of time increased probability of strong earthquake (TIP). The authors have done a prediction research passing in review of eight strong earthquakes with M>6 in the last 20 years in East China. The result shows that six of the eight strong earthquakes were in the space-time domain of the time and space probability of strong earthquake (TSIP) prediction. The prediction accuracy is 75%, the space-time domain rate of the TSIP precaution is 5%, the diagnosed value of R is 0. 70. So the TSIP as a method of medium-term earthquake prediction has good practicality, efficiency and prospects of applying.

“Small earthquake modulation window” and its applications in medium－term prediction

Based on the observations of many years, it has been found that “small earthquake modulation windows” exist inthe situation of some special geological structures, which respond sensitively to the variations of regional stressfields and the activities of earthquake swarms greater than moderate strong magnitude, and can supply some precursory information. More than two “small earthquake modulation windows” can also provide a general orientation of the first main earthquake of a earthquake cluster. Compared with “seismic window” based on frequency itis no doubt that the “modulation-window” has an unique characteristic of applicational significance to mediumterm earthquake prediction with a time scale of two or three years.

Stroke: Medium and long-term mortality and associated factors in French-speaking West Africa, case of Benin

Introduction: Stroke is the leading cause of mortality and physical disability in sub-Saharan Africa. Objective: Determining medium-term and long-term mortality for stroke and identifying associated factors. Method: It consists in a cross-sectional, prospective, descriptive and analytical study that was conducted from April 1 to August 31, 2013 in the Neurology Department of CNHU-HKM in Cotonou. It involved patients who have known stroke for at least 6 months, and were all admitted and discharged later on. The disease survivors were re-contacted and examined again at home or at hospital. Then, the number of deceased was systematically recorded with precision of death time-limit. Results: The overall mortality rate was 29%. Mortality was higher with patients over 70 years with a frequency of 57.1%. The medium-term mortality rate was 25% against 4% for long-term. The average time-limit for death occurrence after the vascular incident was 7 months ± 6.4 months. Prognostic factors of mortality were: the age of the patient (IC95% = 7.73 [1.49 - 39.99], p = 0.015 ), marital status (IC95% = 0.27 [0.08 to 0.94], p = 0.039 ) and the presence of aphasia (IC95% = 5.52 [1.45 to 20.94 ], p = 0.012). Conclusion: Stroke mortality still remains significant, even after the patients have been discharged from hospital. A good psychological family support and efficient aphasia coverage are essential for its reduction.

Seismicity Quantification and Its Application to Medium-term Earthquake Prediction

Bed on the analysis of each parameter describing seismicity,we think A(b)-value can betterquantitatively describe the feature of the enhancement and quietness of seismicity in this paper. Thedata of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972～1996 in North China are used in space scanningof A(b)-value. The result shows that 2～3 years before most strong earthquakes there wereObviously anomaly zones of A(b)-value with very good prediction effect. Some problems about themedium-term prediction by using A(b)-value are also discussed.

Determination of Regions With Medium-Term Risk of Strong Earthquakes: Pre-warning Active Faults

To predict the area with frequent seismicity and the future risky region of strong earthquakes on the time scale of one or several years is a very important and urgent problem that needs to be solved.On the basis of active fault research,pre-warning active faults that have been active recently will be discussed; then the medium-term risky region of strong earthquakes will be delimited around the pre-warning active faults.This method proves to be effective.

Total Hip Replacement: Short- and Medium-Term Morbidity and Mortality in the Department of Orthopedic Traumatology of Donka University Hospital, Guinea-Conakry

Introduction: Total hip prostheses are a reliable means of treating hip disorders. It is indicated when pain and reduced mobility of the hip become incompatible with the patient’s daily activities. In low-income countries, the risk factors for hip disease are numerous, but the means for its management, such as total hip prostheses, are not. The aim of this work was to determine the morbi-mortality of total hip prostheses in the short and medium term in our department and to review the literature. Patients and Method: This was a prospective and descriptive study over a period of 9 years. It involved 50 THPs performed on 45 patients. Patients who had received a THP and were followed up for at least two years were included. We excluded patients who were lost to follow-up. The Moore-type posterolateral minimally invasive approach was used. Complications were investigated from the immediate postoperative period and in the medium term. The final functional results were evaluated according to the Postel Merle d’Aubigné score. Results: We performed 50 THPs out of 750 procedures, i.e. , 6.6%. The indications were: primary coxarthrosis 60%, necrosis of the femoral head 26%, post-infectious balloon hip 4%, and pseudarthrosis of the femoral neck 10%. The average time to the consultation was 2.4 years with extremes of 1 and 5 years. According to the terrain, sickle cell disease represented 18%, tuberculosis 12%. Postoperative complications were lameness 12%, dislocation 6%, suppuration 6%, death 4%, peri-prosthetic fracture 8%, loosening 2%, peri-articular ossification 2%, and paralysis of the external popliteal nerve 2%. Conclusion: Whoever performs a THP is obliged to monitor the patient as long as he/she is alive. Complications are possible at any time and can negatively change the assigned goal and force the surgeon to be expensive and sometimes inconclusive secondary interventions.

Study on medium-short term earthquake forecast in Yunnan Province by precursory events

The medium-short term forecast for a certain kinds of main earthquake events might be possible with the time-to-failure method presented by Varnes (1989), Bufe and Varnes (1993), which is to simulate an accelerative releasing model of precursory earthquake energy. By fitting the observed data with the theoretical formula, a medium-short term forecast technique for the main shock events could be established, by which the location, time and magnitude of the main shock could be determined. The data used in the paper are obtained from the earthquake catalogue recorded by Yunnan Regional Seismological Network with a time coverage of 1965~2002. The statistical analyses for the past 37 years show that the data of M2.5 earthquakes were fairly complete. In the present paper, 30 main shocks occurred in Yunnan region were simulated. For 25 of them, the forecasting time and magnitude from the simulation of precursory sequence are very close to the actual values with the precision of about 0.57 (magnitude unit). Suppose that the last event of the precursory sequence is known, then the time error for the forecasting main shock is about 0.64 year. For the other 5 main shocks, the simulation cannot be made due to the insufficient precursory events for the full determination of energy accelerating curve or disturbance to the energy-release curve. The results in the paper indicate that there is no obviously linear relation in the optimal searching radius for the main shock and the precursory events because Yunnan is an active region with damage earthquakes and moderate and small earthquakes. However, there is a strong correlation between the main shock moment and the coefficient k/m. The optimal fitting range for the forecasting time and magnitude can be further reduced using the relation between the main shock moment lgM0 and the coefficient lgk/m and the value range of the restricting index m, by which the forecast precision of the simulated main shock can be improved. The time-to-failure method is used to fit 30 main shocks in the paper and more than 80% of them have acquired better results, indicating that the method is prospective for its ability to forecast the known main shock sequence. Therefore, the prospect is cheerful to make medium-short term forecast for the forthcoming main shocks by the precursory events.

The Study of Medium- and Short-term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (M_S=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M_S=5.8)

In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area’s seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.

Long Term Application of a Vehicle-Based Health Monitoring System to Short and Medium Span Bridges and Damage Detection Sensitivity

Largest portion of the bridge stock in almost any country and bridge owning organisation consists on ordinary bridges that has short or medium spans and are now deteriorating due to aging, etc. Therefore, it is becoming an important social concern to develop and put to practical use simple and efficient health monitoring systems for existing short and medium span (10 - 30 m) bridges. In this paper, one practical solution to the problem for condition assessment of short and medium span bridges was discussed. A vehicle-based measurement with a public bus as part of a public transit system (called “Bus monitoring system”) has been developed to be capable of detecting damage that may affect the structural safety of a bridge from long term vibration measurement data collected while the vehicle (bus) crossed the target bridges. This paper systematically describes how the system has been developed. The bus monitoring system aims to detect the transition from the damage acceleration period, in which the structural safety of an aged bridge declines sharply, to the deterioration period by continually monitoring the bridge of interest. To evaluate the practicality of the newly developed bus monitoring system, it has been field-tested over a period of about four years by using an in-service fixed-route bus operating on a bus route in the city of Ube, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Japan. The verification results thus obtained are also described in this paper. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of “characteristic deflection”, which is a bridge (health) condition indicator used by the bus monitoring system, in damage detection. Sensitivity of “characteristic deflection” is verified by introducing artificial damage into a bridge that has ended its service life and is awaiting removal. As the results, it will be able to make a rational long-term health monitoring system for existing short and mediumspan bridges, and then the system helps bridge administrators to establish the rational maintenance strategies.

2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震前兆异常特征及预测过程

2024年1月23日新疆乌什发生7.1级地震,震中位于2024年度全国地震重点危险区和新疆地震局划定的年度危险区内,震前做了较好的中、短期预测。本文总结了地震前出现的地震活动和地球物理观测等异常:①震前地震活动性存在b值、震源一致性、地震平静、条带、增强、高频等异常,长、中、短期异常预测效果均较好;②地球物理观测震前存在洞体应变、地倾斜、基岩温度、温泉氢气、井流量、地磁等异常,中短期异常较为显著,时、空、强三要素对应较好。综合分析认为,乌什7.1级地震前,地震活动和地球物理定点观测中短期异常突出,对时、空、强均有较好的预测,地球物理观测在震前存在大幅度异常变化,异常具有逐渐向震中逼近的过程。根据异常变化,新疆地震局及时向新疆维吾尔自治区政府上报震情,此次地震取得了减灾实效。

基于概率增益模型的强震概率预测研究

为提高云南地区及邻区强震中短期预测的准确度,通过强震发生前不同地震前兆指标的对比研究,发现仅用单项指标很难提高预测的准确度。挑选出能从不同侧面反映强震发生规律的6项指标,采用概率增益模型对这些指标进行综合处理,通过估算每种地震前兆的概率增益来定量判定地震发生的可能性,最终得到可用来预测云南地区及邻区M≥6.0地震未来中短期发生可能性大小的综合概率P指标。计算分析表明:①使用综合概率P预测未来半年云南地区及邻区M≥6.0强震,能通过R值检验;②取P异常阀值为20%、30%,可对强震进行不同级别预警,P值小于20%为安全,P值为20%~30%为黄色预警,为云南地区及邻区未来存在发生M≥6.0地震的可能性;P值大于30%为红色预警,表示未来半年云南地区及邻区将发生M≥6.0地震。

基于多模型融合的中长期径流集成预测方法

中长期水文预报是流域水资源规划与合理配置的重要依据。为提高中长期径流预测精度,提出了一种基于多模型融合的水库中长期径流集成预测方法。该方法将ARMA、BP、LSTM、RF和SVR等5个异质预测模型进行融合,同时采用超参数优化方法确定各模型的最优参数。将其用于青海省龙羊峡水库的中长期径流预报中,结果表明,通过Stacking融合算法建立的集成预测模型相较于单一模型,取得了更高的预测精度(R2值由0.71提升至0.82)。此方法可为提升流域中长期径流预测精度提供一定参考。

基于可解释机器学习的黄河源区径流分期组合预报

黄河源区是黄河流域重要的产流区和我国重要的清洁能源基地,提高黄河源区径流预报准确率可为流域水资源科学调配和水风光清洁能源高效利用提供重要支撑。以黄河源区唐乃亥和玛曲水文站为研究对象,基于不同月份径流组分的差异,考虑积雪覆盖率及融雪水当量变化,构建了中长期径流分期组合机器学习预报模型及其可解释性分析框架。研究结果表明:1)年内的径流预报时段可划分为融雪影响期(3—6月)和非融雪主导(以降雨和地下水补给为主)期(7月—次年2月);2)与传统不分期模型相比,唐乃亥站和玛曲站分期组合预报模型的纳什效率系数分别达0.897、0.835,确定系数(R2)分别达0.897、0.839,均方根误差分别降低了10%、17%,提高了径流预报准确率,通过分位数映射校正,唐乃亥站和玛曲站预报模型的R2分别进一步提升至0.926和0.850;3)基于SHAP机器学习可解释性分析框架,辨识了预报因子对径流预报结果的贡献程度,由高到低依次为降水、前一个月流量、蒸发、气温、相对湿度、融雪水当量等,发现了不同预报因子之间交互作用散点分布具有拖尾式或阶跃式的特征。

基于集合Kalman滤波的中长期径流预报

为降低中长期径流预报的不确定性,增加水电站水库的发电效益,针对现有方法侧重于提高单一预报模型确定性预报结果的准确性以降低径流预报不确定性的问题,提出一种基于集合Kalman滤波的入库径流确定性预报方法。以旬为预见期的锦西水库实例验证结果表明:相比传统的单一预报模型和传统的信息融合预报模型,基于集合Kalman滤波的中长期径流预报可使RMSE降低4.78 m^(3)/s,合格率可提高0.56%,且更有效地降低了汛期预报的不确定性,得到了更加准确、可靠的确定性径流预报结果,可为开展流域梯级水电站优化调度提供技术支持。

考虑发用电相似性的海上风电中长期双边协商交易优化决策模型

海上风电是未来最有潜力的可再生能源之一,但其出力具有随机性和波动性。为了更好地促进海上风电的市场化消纳,文中基于海上风电商与负荷聚合商间的中长期双边协商交易构建了优化决策模型。首先,通过时间序列相似性评估方法,为目标海上风电寻找最优的用电负荷组合。其次,考虑需求响应备用容量配置和发用电曲线预测误差,构建了基于两阶段分布鲁棒优化的中长期交易优化决策模型,为海上风电配置适应其未来一段时间内出力特性的需求响应资源,并合理调整中长期交易曲线。最后,通过仿真算例验证了所提模型的有效性和实用性。

可持续视角下预算绩效管理的现实要求与实践方向

面对财政收支矛盾突出的现实,提升预算可持续性成为现代财政制度建设的重要内容。从可持续视角出发,预算总量的可控性、绩效约束的有效性、中期框架下的绩效保证,体现了新时代预算绩效管理的新要求。具体而言,通过提升预算透明度与强化隐性债务绩效管理,加快推进阳光财政建设、有效化解预算风险;结合零基预算与绩效导向,合理确定预算优先序、加强预算绩效信息的有效应用;加强中期财政规划对年度预算的约束,并促进其与绩效管理的有效结合,进而实现预算绩效管理从年度向中期的可持续拓展。

女性中层管理者职业继续发展阻碍因素的探索研究

为定位“玻璃天花板”的最关键因素及特殊阶段呈现的重要因素,文章聚焦“分水岭”阶段的女性中层管理者群体,构建女性职业发展阻碍因素的理论模型。结果表明,影响女性中层管理者职业继续发展的因素及作用机制可以结合能力—动机—机会(Ability-Motivation-Opportunity,AMO)框架加以理解。组织结构同质化、结构性晋升阻碍和职场性别劣势限制了女性中层管理者职业继续发展机会;社会性别分工认同、工作-家庭平衡成功观,以及低职场性别效能削弱了女性中层管理者职业继续发展的动机;由于工作压力和社会性别评价压力,以及职场任务导向认知、工具性内隐领导原型和性别特质的影响,许多女性中层管理者呈现出侧重任务导向,但任务导向执行低效的领导行为特点,降低了女性中层管理者的领导力,进而制约了女性中层管理者的职业继续发展能力。