It is not only meteorological problems for the medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) research to be in operation,but also engineering and technological problems.Here we gener- ally described the results of r...It is not only meteorological problems for the medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) research to be in operation,but also engineering and technological problems.Here we gener- ally described the results of research,engineering construction,operation information and testing,in the course of set-up of medium-range NWP operation system in the China National Meteorological Center.展开更多
The uncertainties caused by the errors of the initial states and the parameters in the numerical model are investigated. Three problems of predictability in numerical weather and climate prediction are proposed, which...The uncertainties caused by the errors of the initial states and the parameters in the numerical model are investigated. Three problems of predictability in numerical weather and climate prediction are proposed, which are related to the maximum predictable time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum admissible errors of the initial values and the parameters in the model respectively. The three problems are then formulated into nonlinear optimization problems. Effective approaches to deal with these nonlinear optimization problems are provided. The Lorenz’ model is employed to demonstrate how to use these ideas in dealing with these three problems.展开更多
The regional climate model(RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Ce...The regional climate model(RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation(EP) in the next 100 years under the A1 B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1 B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.展开更多
The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large...The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large-scale weather systems. However, the model has only recently begun running operationally at horizontal grid spacings of ～1.5 km [e.g.,at the UK Met Office and the Korea Meteorological Administration（KMA）]. As its microphysics scheme was originally designed and tuned for large-scale precipitation systems, we investigate the performance of UM microphysics to determine potential inherent biases or weaknesses. Two rainfall cases from the KMA forecasting system are considered in this study： a Changma（quasi-stationary） front, and Typhoon Sanba（2012）. The UM output is compared to polarimetric radar observations in terms of simulated polarimetric radar variables. Results show that the UM generally underpredicts median reflectivity in stratiform rain, producing high reflectivity cores and precipitation gaps between them. This is partially due to the diagnostic rain intercept parameter formulation used in the one-moment microphysics scheme. Model drop size is generally both underand overpredicted compared to observations. UM frozen hydrometeors favor generic ice（crystals and snow） rather than graupel, which is reasonable for Changma and typhoon cases. The model performed best with the typhoon case in terms of simulated precipitation coverage.展开更多
FY-3C Microwave Temperature SounderⅡ(MWTS-Ⅱ)lacks observations at 23.8 GHz,31 GHz and 89 GHz,making it difficult to remove the data contaminated by precipitation in assimilation.In this paper,a fast forward operator...FY-3C Microwave Temperature SounderⅡ(MWTS-Ⅱ)lacks observations at 23.8 GHz,31 GHz and 89 GHz,making it difficult to remove the data contaminated by precipitation in assimilation.In this paper,a fast forward operator based on the Community Radiative Transfer Model(CRTM)was used to analyze the relationship between the observation minus background simulation(O-B)and the cloud fractions in different MWTS-Ⅱchannels.In addition,based on the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI)system,the radiation brightness temperature of the MWTS-Ⅱwas assimilated in the regional Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)model.In the process of assimilation,Visible and Infrared Radiometer(VIRR)cloud detection products were matched to MWTS-Ⅱpixels for precipitation detection.For typhoon No.18 in 2014,impact tests of MWTS-Ⅱdata assimilation was carried out.The results show that,though the bias observation minus analysis(O-A)of assimilated data can be reduced by quality control only with|O-B|<3 K;however,the O-A becomes much smaller while the precipitation detection is performed with Fvirr<0.9(VIRR cloud fraction threshold of 0.9).Besides,the change of the environmental field around the typhoon is more conducive to make the simulated track closer to the observation.The 72-hour typhoon track simulation error also shows that,after the precipitation detection,the error of simulated typhoon track is significantly reduced,which reflects the validity of a precipitation detection method based on a double criterion of|O-B|<3 K and Fvirr<0.9.展开更多
文摘It is not only meteorological problems for the medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) research to be in operation,but also engineering and technological problems.Here we gener- ally described the results of research,engineering construction,operation information and testing,in the course of set-up of medium-range NWP operation system in the China National Meteorological Center.
基金the National Key Basic Research Project Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Synoptic Disasters i
文摘The uncertainties caused by the errors of the initial states and the parameters in the numerical model are investigated. Three problems of predictability in numerical weather and climate prediction are proposed, which are related to the maximum predictable time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum admissible errors of the initial values and the parameters in the model respectively. The three problems are then formulated into nonlinear optimization problems. Effective approaches to deal with these nonlinear optimization problems are provided. The Lorenz’ model is employed to demonstrate how to use these ideas in dealing with these three problems.
基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB03020601)National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB833406)National Science Foundation of China(41290255)
文摘The regional climate model(RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation(EP) in the next 100 years under the A1 B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1 B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.
基金supported by a research grant of “Development of a Polarimetric Radar Data Simulator for Local Forecasting Model (Ⅱ)” by the KMAsupport was provided by a NOAA Warn-on-Forecast grant (Grant No. NA16OAR4320115)a National Science Foundation grant (Grant No. AGS-1261776)
文摘The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large-scale weather systems. However, the model has only recently begun running operationally at horizontal grid spacings of ～1.5 km [e.g.,at the UK Met Office and the Korea Meteorological Administration（KMA）]. As its microphysics scheme was originally designed and tuned for large-scale precipitation systems, we investigate the performance of UM microphysics to determine potential inherent biases or weaknesses. Two rainfall cases from the KMA forecasting system are considered in this study： a Changma（quasi-stationary） front, and Typhoon Sanba（2012）. The UM output is compared to polarimetric radar observations in terms of simulated polarimetric radar variables. Results show that the UM generally underpredicts median reflectivity in stratiform rain, producing high reflectivity cores and precipitation gaps between them. This is partially due to the diagnostic rain intercept parameter formulation used in the one-moment microphysics scheme. Model drop size is generally both underand overpredicted compared to observations. UM frozen hydrometeors favor generic ice（crystals and snow） rather than graupel, which is reasonable for Changma and typhoon cases. The model performed best with the typhoon case in terms of simulated precipitation coverage.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(41505082)Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorology in the Public Welfare Profession of China(GYHY201506002,GYHY201506022)
文摘FY-3C Microwave Temperature SounderⅡ(MWTS-Ⅱ)lacks observations at 23.8 GHz,31 GHz and 89 GHz,making it difficult to remove the data contaminated by precipitation in assimilation.In this paper,a fast forward operator based on the Community Radiative Transfer Model(CRTM)was used to analyze the relationship between the observation minus background simulation(O-B)and the cloud fractions in different MWTS-Ⅱchannels.In addition,based on the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI)system,the radiation brightness temperature of the MWTS-Ⅱwas assimilated in the regional Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)model.In the process of assimilation,Visible and Infrared Radiometer(VIRR)cloud detection products were matched to MWTS-Ⅱpixels for precipitation detection.For typhoon No.18 in 2014,impact tests of MWTS-Ⅱdata assimilation was carried out.The results show that,though the bias observation minus analysis(O-A)of assimilated data can be reduced by quality control only with|O-B|<3 K;however,the O-A becomes much smaller while the precipitation detection is performed with Fvirr<0.9(VIRR cloud fraction threshold of 0.9).Besides,the change of the environmental field around the typhoon is more conducive to make the simulated track closer to the observation.The 72-hour typhoon track simulation error also shows that,after the precipitation detection,the error of simulated typhoon track is significantly reduced,which reflects the validity of a precipitation detection method based on a double criterion of|O-B|<3 K and Fvirr<0.9.
文摘晨昏卫星(晨昏轨道极轨气象卫星,也简称晨昏轨道卫星)是指太阳同步近极地轨道卫星中轨道降交点地方时间(Equator Cross Time,ETC)在6:00左右的卫星,观测地方时间总在凌晨和傍晚。在介绍晨昏卫星的基础上,分析了晨昏卫星的平台特征、观测特点和潜在应用。对轨道模拟仿真和多国观测系统试验(observing system experiments,OSE)的分析表明:晨昏卫星同上午卫星和下午卫星共同构成极轨气象卫星业务观测系统,可以每6h提供一次无缝隙的全球大气探测资料,改进NWP的初始场,对南北半球预报和行星尺度的区域预报均有积极的贡献。利用FY-1D卫星观测资料的分析表明:晨昏卫星对气候和环境监测也具有独特的作用。根据现有风云气象卫星的发展规划,还讨论了发展晨昏卫星的可能途径。
