Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions ...Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.展开更多
目的探讨MELD(Model For End-StageLiver Disease)评分在评估肝硬化患者预后及肝脏储备功能中方面的作用。方法分析我院从2005年8月至2009年7月收治外科病房的429例肝硬化患者的临床资料,对照MELD评分,Child-Pugh分级,肝脏体积及吲哚氰...目的探讨MELD(Model For End-StageLiver Disease)评分在评估肝硬化患者预后及肝脏储备功能中方面的作用。方法分析我院从2005年8月至2009年7月收治外科病房的429例肝硬化患者的临床资料,对照MELD评分,Child-Pugh分级,肝脏体积及吲哚氰绿(Indocyanine greenICG)试验数值,分析肝硬化患者预后情况,各个评分体系之间的关系。结果 MELD评分与Child-Pugh分级生存组与死亡组比较均有明显差异(P<0.01),MELD评分与Child-Pugh分级两体系的ROC曲线面积有差异(P<0.01)。MELD评分,Child-Pugh分级与肝脏体积有相关性(P<0.01),肝脏体积与MELD评分的相关系数大于Child-Pugh分级。Child-Pugh分级与吲哚氰绿试验指标(K值,R15)有相关性(P<0.05);MELD评分与吲哚氰绿试验指标(K值,R15)有显著相关性(P<0.01)。结论相对于传统的Child-Pugh分级,MELD评分能更好的预测患者预后,特异度,敏感度更高,精确性更好,MELD评分与肝脏体积,肝脏储备功能间存在明显相关性,且相关性明显好于Child-Pugh分级,作为评价患者预后,MELD评分体系更可靠,更能间接反映出肝脏的储备功能。展开更多
文摘Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.
