Design of Web System for Meso-scale Meteorological Observational Station Based on SVG

The web of meso-scale meteorological observational station based on WebGIS realized by SVG technology was briefly introduced.Through grasping and applying SVG technology,the high-density automatic observational station in Anhui Province was developed.The web of meso-scale meteorological observational stations constructed by SVG technique can display the network graphics of weather data and intuitionistic vector graphics interface.

CMA-MESO千米尺度变分同化系统中极小化控制变量的重构

重构GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球、区域一体化变分同化系统中的极小化控制变量,提升中、小尺度同化分析能力,为中国气象局业务区域数值预报系统CMA-MESO提供千米尺度适用的同化方案。新方案用纬向风速(u)和经向风速(v)替代原有流函数和势函数作为新的风场控制变量,采用温度和地面气压(T,ps)替代原有非平衡无量纲气压作为新的质量场控制变量,同时不再考虑准地转平衡约束,而是采用连续方程弱约束保证分析平衡。背景误差参数统计和数值试验结果表明,采用重构后的极小化控制变量,观测信息传播更加局地,分析结构更加合理,避免了原方案在中、小尺度应用时存在的虚假相关问题。连续方程弱约束的引入,限制了同化分析中辐合、辐散的不合理增长,帮助新方案在分析更加局地的同时保证分析平衡。为期1个月的连续同化循环和预报试验结果表明,新方案可以减小风场和质量场分析误差,CMAMESO系统地面降水和10 m风场的预报评分显著提升。

地形影响的水平相关模型在CMA-MESO中的应用

在背景误差水平相关模型中引入地形作用,研究复杂地形下近地面观测资料同化对分析和预报的影响。CMAMESO三维变分系统中背景误差水平相关关系采用高斯相关模型描述,观测信息在高度追随坐标的模式面上各向同性传播。然而在地形复杂的近地面层,观测信息传播受到山脉阻挡,因而其背景误差协方差非均匀且各向异性,观测信息传播应随地形高度变化。为此,采用美国国家气象中心NMC方法统计复杂地形下背景误差水平相关结构,构建包含地形高度和地形梯度影响的高斯相关模型,并将改进的水平相关模型应用于CMA-MESO三维变分分析。理想试验表明:考虑地形项的水平相关模型方案使观测信息以随地形高度变化的各向异性形式传播,越过大地形观测信息影响明显减弱,分析增量更加合理。我国北方一次强降水过程分析预报试验表明:随地形高度变化的水平相关模型方案使地面观测信息各向异性传播,削弱了大地形处近地面的分析增量,对降水预报略有正贡献。针对华东地区降水过程进行5 d逐小时快速更新分析预报循环试验结果表明,随地形变化的水平相关模型方案对10 m风场和24 h时效内降水预报有正贡献。

葵花-8卫星AOD资料在CMA-MESO/CUACE CW 3DVar同化系统中的个例应用研究

CMA-MESO/CUACE CW化学天气耦合模式是自主研发的大气化学耦合模式,目前CMA-MESO/CUACE CW3DVar同化系统实现了地面气溶胶观测可吸入颗粒物PM_(2.5)和PM10的同化,为增强耦合同化系统非常规观测的同化能力,文中在CMA-MESO大气化学天气耦合三维变分同化框架基础上,利用查表法获得气溶胶消光系数,然后建立气溶胶光学厚度(AerosolOpticalDepth,AOD)和气溶胶组分之间关系的观测算子、切线性观测算子和伴随观测算子,实现AOD观测资料的同化应用。针对2016年12月18-20日华北、黄淮地区一次污染天气过程进行同化预报试验,试验结果表明同化葵花-8卫星(Hi‐mawari-8)气溶胶光学厚度观测后,PM_(2.5)分析的重污染区范围有所扩大,山西东南部分析与实况分布更为接近,但是山东大部地区PM_(2.5)分析偏强,与观测相比PM_(2.5)质量浓度存在高估。同时同化Himawari-8 AOD观测和地面气溶胶站点观测的PM_(2.5)分析最优,分析与观测距平相关系数最高,平均偏差、均方根误差及标准差最小。重污染区的PM_(2.5)预报检验结果表明,同化Himawari-8AOD观测对大于350µg·m^(-3)量级PM_(2.5)预报正贡献可以持续到48 h,但整体来说,同时同化Himawari-8AOD观测和地面气溶胶站点观测对各个量级的PM_(2.5)质量浓度预报质量最优。

往返平飘式探空在CMA-MESO三维变分中的同化及对模式预报的影响

往返平飘式探空通过一次探空气球施放实现“上升段-平飘段-下降段”三段观测,其下降段能实现在06时(世界时,下同)和18时自动垂直加密观测大气,具备提升区域高分辨率快速同化循环预报系统在06时和18时的预报技巧潜力。为了实现往返平飘式探空在区域高分辨率模式中的同化,分析其对预报的影响,初步提出了“选取模式层最接近观测”的垂直稀疏化方法来预处理资料,深入分析了稀疏化对同化效果的影响,论证了资料垂直稀疏化对于同化应用的必要性;在此基础上,开展了为期1个月的批量同化影响试验,着重分析了往返平飘式探空在长江中下游区域的组网观测对CMA-MESO模式预报技巧的影响。稀疏化敏感性试验结果表明,同化不稀疏化的往返平飘式探空相比同化传统业务探空,分析和预报误差显著增加,降水预报评分也显著降低,相反,“选取最接近模式层”数据的垂直稀疏化方案能提高模式的分析和预报技巧,表明往返平飘式探空同化前必须进行垂直稀疏化。批量同化试验结果表明,在冷启动时刻(00时和12时,为常规探空释放时刻),同化往返平飘式探空(上升段)相对同化传统业务探空,分析误差和预报误差变化较小。但在暖启动时刻(03、06、09、15、18、21时,无常规探空释放时刻),增加往返平飘式探空下降段数据,相比控制试验,分析场精度提高了约0.4%。此外,0~12 h累计降水预报的ETS评分变化较小,但12~24 h累计降水预报在0.1、1.0、5.0、10.0、25.0 mm量级降水ETS评分提高了约0.5%,在50.0 mm量级的降水ETS评分提高了约2.3%。总体而言,同化往返平飘式探空对于区域高分辨率快速同化循环预报系统在暖启动时刻的降水预报技巧有正贡献。

Adjoint Sensitivity Experiments of a Meso-β-scale Vortex in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

A relatively independent and small-scale heavy rainfall event occurred to the south of a slow eastwardmoving meso-α-scale vortex. The analysis shows that a meso-β-scale system is heavily responsible for the intense precipitation. An attempt to simulate it met with some failures. In view of its small scale, short lifetime and relatively sparse observations at the initial time, an adjoint model was used to examine the sensitivity of the meso-β-scale vortex simulation with respect to initial conditions. The adjoint sensitivity indicates how small perturbations of initial model variables anywhere in the model domain can influence the central vorticity of the vortex. The largest sensitivity for both the wind and temperature perturbation is located below 700 hPa, especially at the low level. The largest sensitivity for the water vapor perturbation is located below 500 hPa, especially at the middle and low levels. The horizontal adjoint sensitivity for all variables is mainly located toward the upper reaches of the Yangtze River with respect to the simulated meso-β-scale system in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces with strong locality. The sensitivity shows that warm cyclonic perturbations in the upper reaches can have a great effect on the development of the meso-β-scale vortex. Based on adjoint sensitivity, forward sensitivity experiments were conducted to identify factors influencing the development of the meso-β-scale vortex and to explore ways of improving the prediction. A realistic prediction was achieved by using adjoint sensitivity to modify the initial conditions and implanting a warm cyclone at the initial time in the upper reaches of the river with respect to the meso-β-scale vortex, as is commonly done in tropical cyclone prediction.

Variational Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Hourly Rainfall Observations for a Meso-βScale Heavy Precipitation Event During the 2002 Mei-Yu Season

Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.

Mesoscale Predictability of Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall

Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4- 6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of the mei-yu front and scale interactions, the error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall forecasts is markedly different from that in middle-latitude moist baroclinic systems. The optimal growth of the errors has a relatively wide spectrum, though it gradually migrates with time from small scale to mesoscale. During the whole period of this heavy rainfall event, the error growth has three different stages, which similar to the evolution of 6-hour accumulated precipitation. Multi-step error growth manifests as an increase of the amplitude of errors, the horizontal scale of the errors, or both. The vertical profile of forecast errors in the developing convective instability and the moist physics convective system indicates two peaks, which correspond with inside the mei-yu front, and related to moist The error growth for the mei-yu heavy rainfall is concentrated convective instability and scale interaction.

Recent Advances in Computational Simulation of Macro-,Meso-,and Micro-Scale Biomimetics Related Fluid Flow Problems

Over the last decade, computational methods have been intensively applied to a variety of scientific researches and engineering designs. Although the computational fluid dynamics （CFD） method has played a dominant role in studying and simulating transport phenomena involving fluid flow and heat and mass transfers, in recent years, other numerical methods for the simulations at meso- and micro-scales have also been actively applied to solve the physics of complex flow and fluid-interface interactions. This paper presents a review of recent advances in multi-scale computational simulation of biomimetics related fluid flow problems. The state-of-the-art numerical techniques, such as lattice Boltzmann method （LBM）, molecular dynamics （MD）, and conventional CFD, applied to different problems such as fish flow, electro-osmosis effect of earthworm motion, and self-cleaning hydrophobic surface, and the numerical approaches are introduced. The new challenging of modelling biomimetics problems in developing the physical conditions of self-clean hydrophobic surfaces is discussed.

Numerical Simulation of Microphysics in Meso-β-Scale Convective Cloud System Associated with a Mesoscale Convective Complex

Numerical simulation of meso-β-scale convective cloud systems associated with a PRE-STORM MCC case has been carried out using a 2-D version of the CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) nonhydrostatic model with parameterized microphysics. It is found that the predicted meso-r-scale convective phenomena arc basically unsteady under the situation of strong shear at low-levels, while the meso-β-scale convective system is maintained up to 3 hours or more. The meso -β- scale cloud system exhibits characteristics of a multi-celled convective storm in which the meso-r-scale convective cells have lifetime of about 30 min. Pressure perturbation depicts a meso-low after a half hour in the low levels. As the cloud system evolves, the meso-low intensifies and extends to the upshear side and covers the entire domain in the mid-lower levels with the peak values of 5-8 hPa. Temperature perturbation depicts a warm region in the middle levels through the entire simulation period. The meso-r-scale warm cores with peak values of 4-8 ℃ are associated with strong convective cells. The cloud top evaporation causes a stronger cold layer around the cloud top levels.Simulation of microphysics exhibits that graupel is primarily concentrated in the strong convective cells forming the main source of convective rainfall after one hour of simulation time. Aggregates are mainly located in the stratiform region and decaying convective cells which produce the stratiform rainfall. Riming of the ice crystals is the predominant precipitation formation mechanism in the convection region, whereas aggregation of ice crystals is the predominant one in the stratiform region, which is consistent with observations. Sensitivity experiments of ice-phase mierophysical processes show that the microphysical structures of the convective cloud system can be simulated better with the diagnosed aggregation collection efficiencies.

Effects of Kuroshio intrusion optimization on the simulation of mesoscale eddies in the northern South China Sea

The impacts of Kuroshio intrusion(KI) optimization on the simulation of meso-scale eddies(MEs) in the northern South China Sea(SCS) were investigated based on an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model by comparing two numerical experiments with differences in their form and intensity of KI due to the optimizing topography at Luzon Strait(LS). We found that a reduced KI reduces ME activities in the northern SCS, which is similar to the observations. In this case, the biases of the model related to simulating the eddy kinetic energy(EKE) west of the LS and along the northern slope are remarkably attenuated. The reduced EKE modeling bias is associated with both the reduced number of anti-cyclonic eddies(AEs) and the reduced amplitude of cyclonic eddies(CEs). The EKE budget analysis further suggests that the optimization of the KI will change the EKE by changing the horizontal velocity shear and the slope of the thermocline, which are related to barotropic and baroclinic instabilities, respectively. The former plays the key role in regulating the EKE in the northern SCS due to the changing of the KI. The EKE advection caused by the KI is also important for the EKE budget to the west of the LS.

基于多尺度Scale-Unet的单样本图像翻译

随着生成对抗网络(GAN)的发展,基于单样本的无监督图像到图像翻译(UI2I)取得了重大进展。然而,以前方法无法捕获图像中的复杂纹理并保留原始内容信息。为解决这个问题,提出了一种基于尺度可变U-Net结构(Scale—Unet)的新型单样本图像翻译结构SUGAN。所提出的SUGAN使用Scale—Unet作为生成器,利用多尺度结构和渐进方法不断改进网络结构,以从粗到细地学习图像特征。同时,提出了尺度像素损失scale-pixel来更好地约束保留原始内容信息,防止信息丢失。实验表明,与SinGAN、TuiGAN、TSIT、StyTR2等公共数据集Summer■Winter、Horse■Zebra上的方法相比,该方法生成图像的SIFID值平均降低了30%。所提方法可更好地保留图像内容信息,同时生成详细逼真的高质量图像。

Meso-scale modeling of chloride diffusion in concrete with consideration of effects of time and temperature

A meso-scale truss network model was developed to predict chloride diffusion in concrete. The model regards concrete as a three-phase composite of mortar matrix, coarse aggregates, and the interfacial transition zone （ITZ） between the mortar matrix and the aggregates. The diffusion coefficient of chloride in the mortar and the ITZ can be analytically determined with only the water-to-cement ratio and volume fraction of fine aggregates. Fick＇s second law of diffusion was used as the governing equation for chloride diffusion in a homogenous medium （e.g., mortar）; it was discretized and applied to the truss network model. The solution procedure of the truss network model based on the diffusion law and the meso-scale composite structure of concrete is outlined. Additionally, the dependence of the diffusion coefficient of chloride in the mortar and the ITZ on exposure duration and temperature is taken into account to illustrate their effect on chloride diffusion coefficient. The numerical results show that the exposure duration and environmental temperature play important roles in the diffusion rate of chloride ions in concrete. It is also concluded that the meso-scale truss network model can be applied to chloride transport analysis of damaged （or cracked） concrete.

Statistical characteristics of meso-scale vortex effects on the track of a tropical cyclone

This paper examines initial meso-scale vortex effects on the motion of a tropical cyclone （TC） in a system where coexisting two components of TC and meso-scale vortices with a barotropic vorticity equation model. The initial mesoscale vortices are generated stochastically by employing Reinaud＇s method. The 62 simulations are performed and analysed in order to understand the statistical characteristics of the effects. Results show that the deflection of the TC track at t = 24 h induced by the initial meso-scale vortices ranges from 2 km to 37 km with the mean value of 13.4 km. A more significant deflection of the TC track can be reduced when several initial meso-scale vortices simultaneously appear in a smaller TC circulation area. It ranges from 22 km to 37 km with the mean value of 28 km, this fact implies that the initial meso-scale vortices-induced deflection may not be neglected sometimes.

Mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale

On small-meso scale, the sea ice dynamic characteristics are quite different from that on large scale. To model the sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale, a new elastic-viscous-plastic （EVP） constitutive model and a hybrid Lagrangian- Eulerian （HLE） numerical method are developed based on continuum theory. While a modified discrete element model （DEM） is introduced to model the ice cover at discrete state. With the EVP constitutive model, the numerical simulation for ice ridging in an idealized rectangular basin is carried out and the results are comparable with the analytical solution of jam theory. Adopting the HLE numerical model, the sea ice dynamic process is simulated in a vortex wind field. The furthering application of DEM is discussed in details for modeling the discrete distribution of sea ice. With this study, the mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics can be improved with high precision and computational efficiency.

Analysis on the Meso-scale System Activity and the Structure Characteristics of A Short-time Rainstorm

By using the rainfall data in the regional automatic station,FY-2E satellite data,NCEP reanalysis data,the evolution features and the structure characteristics of a meso-scale convective system(MCS) which happened on May 6 in 2010 in Loudi City of Hunan Province were analyzed.The results showed that MCS was the important influence system for the generation and development of strong precipitation.The equivalent blackbody brightness temperature(TBB) field of satellite inversion could directly reflect the convective activity of cumulus,the precipitation distribution and the intensity characteristics in the rainstorm process.TBB low value belt had the good corresponding relationship with the rainstorm falling zone.The disturbance flow field and the height field which passed Barnes band-pass wave filtering represented that there existed the obvious high-layer anticyclonic circulation and the low-layer cyclonic circulation near the rainstorm zone.The divergence in the high layer and the convergence in the low layer enhanced the occurrence and development of MCS.In addition,the disturbance temperature field revealed the main source of energy which the occurrence and development of strong convective weather needed.

Meso-scale available gravitational potential energy in the world oceans

The pitfalls of applying the commonly used definition of available gravitational potential energy （AGPE） to the world oceans are re-examined. It is proposed that such definition should apply to the meso-scale problems in the oceans, not the global scale. Based on WOA98 climatological data, the meso-scale AGPE in the world oceans is estimated. Unlike previous results by Oort et al. , the meso-scale AGPE is large wherever there is a strong horizontal density gradient. The distribution of meso-scale AGPE reveals the close connection between the baroclinic instability and the release of gravitational potential energy stored within the scale of Rossby deformation radius.

CMA-MESO模式对“21·7”河南特大暴雨的预报评估与误差分析

为分析CMA-MESO模式对2021年7月19—21日河南特大暴雨的预报性能,除了常规观测资料,还利用雷达和卫星非常规观测资料,对模拟回波和云产品开展传统和新型空间检验,以揭示对流风暴和中尺度对流系统(MCS,基于卫星红外通道)的模式预报偏差细节,并从降水形成的水汽、动力、触发和维持机制等角度分析模式误差产生的原因。结果表明:模式能较好预报雨带形态、弱回波持续时间以及主要降水发生前期和后期MCS的面积和强度演变趋势;模式偏差主要体现在低估了降水强度且未报出郑州站极端小时降水,错报主雨带小时降水演变,严重低估了对流风暴和强对流风暴的持续时间,未能报出午后MCS面积陡增的变化趋势且MCS位置预报偏西、偏北;模式降水偏差的原因主要在于水汽的模拟,模式水汽垂直分布不合理,对台风烟花和查帕卡的水汽输送均偏弱,而水汽输送不足的根源是低空急流偏弱和超低空急流脉动不足。另外,模式未能在郑州站附近预报出稳定少动的地面中尺度辐合线,加之大气层结不稳定度不足和对流不稳定能量偏低,使得对流发展不够旺盛,最终导致降水预报不足。

DEVELOPMENT OF MESO-AND MICRO-SCALE STRUCTURES IN THE CHAMBA-BHARMAUR SYNCLINE, WESTERN HIMALAYA, INDIA

The Chamba\|Bharmaur syncline located in between Zanskar range in the north and Dhauladhar\|Pirpanjal range in the south , in the Chamba district of Western Himachal Pradesh. The rocks constituting Chamba\|Bharmaur syncline belong to Precambrian to Lr. Triassic (Rattan, 1973) and represent the southern extension of the Tethyan facies of the Zanskar Tethys Himalayan sequence (Thakur, 1998). The geological and structural mapping in the Chamba\|Bharmaur syncline reveal that the area comprises of various litho\|units which show imprint of various phases of deformation. Three main phases of deformation DF\-1, DF\-2 and DF\-3 have affected the rocks of the Chamba\|Bharmaur syncline. The earliest recognisable deformational structures of the area are tight isoclinal folds appressed with long drawn out limbs and thickened hinges have experienced buckle shortening of 80%. They have been rendered intrafolial folds in many places; only a few of them show disharmony. The folds initiated in the multilayered sequences are generally controlled in their distribution and wave\|length by more competent members of the sequence.

Case study on the three-dimensional structure of meso-scale eddy in the South China Sea based on a high-resolution model

Meso-scale eddies are important features in the South China Sea（SCS）. The eddies with diameters of 50–200 km can greatly impact the transport of heat, momentum, and tracers. A high-resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model was developed to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS in this study. The aim of this study is to examine the model ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilations The simulated Sea Surface Height（SSH） anomalies agree with the observed the AVISO SSH anomalies well. The simulated subsurface temperature profiles agree with the CTD observation data from the ROSE（Responses of Marine Hazards to climate change in the Western Pacific） project. The simulated upper-ocean currents also agree with the main circulation based on observations. A warm eddy is identified in winter in the northern SCS. The position and domain of the simulated eddy are confirmed by the observed sea surface height data from the AVISO. The result shows that the model has the ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilation.The three-dimensional structure of the meso-scale eddy in the SCS is analyzed using the model result. It is found that the eddy center is tilted vertically, which agrees with the observation. It is also found that the velocity center of the eddy does not coincide with the temperature center of the eddy. The result shows that the model has the ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilations. Further study on the forming mechanism and the three-dimensional structure of the meso-scale eddies will be carried out using the model result and cruise observation data in the near future.