Synergistic Effect of the Planetary-scale Disturbance, Typhoon and Meso-β-scale Convective Vortex on the Extremely Intense Rainstorm on 20 July 2021 in Zhengzhou

On 20 July 2021,northern Henan Province in China experienced catastrophic flooding as a result of an extremely intense rainstorm,with a record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm during 0800–0900 UTC and daily accumulated rainfall in Zhengzhou City exceeding 600 mm(“Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm”for short).The multi-scale dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms for this rainstorm are investigated based on station-observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets.The backward trajectory tracking shows that the warm,moist air from the northwestern Pacific was mainly transported toward Henan Province by confluent southeasterlies on the northern side of a strong typhoon In-Fa(2021),with the convergent southerlies associated with a weaker typhoon Cempaka(2021)concurrently transporting moisture northward from South China Sea,supporting the rainstorm.In the upper troposphere,two equatorward-intruding potential vorticity(PV)streamers within the planetary-scale wave train were located over northern Henan Province,forming significant divergent flow aloft to induce stronger ascending motion locally.Moreover,the converged moist air was also blocked by the mountains in western Henan Province and forced to rise so that a deep meso-β-scale convective vortex(MβCV)was induced over the west of Zhengzhou City.The PV budget analyses demonstrate that the MβCV development was attributed to the positive feedback between the rainfall-related diabatic heating and high-PV under the strong upward PV advection during the Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm.Importantly,the MβCV was forced by upper-level larger-scale westerlies becoming eastward-sloping,which allowed the mixtures of abundant raindrops and hydrometeors to ascend slantwise and accumulate just over Zhengzhou City,resulting in the record-breaking hourly rainfall locally.

Adjoint Sensitivity Experiments of a Meso-β-scale Vortex in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

A relatively independent and small-scale heavy rainfall event occurred to the south of a slow eastwardmoving meso-α-scale vortex. The analysis shows that a meso-β-scale system is heavily responsible for the intense precipitation. An attempt to simulate it met with some failures. In view of its small scale, short lifetime and relatively sparse observations at the initial time, an adjoint model was used to examine the sensitivity of the meso-β-scale vortex simulation with respect to initial conditions. The adjoint sensitivity indicates how small perturbations of initial model variables anywhere in the model domain can influence the central vorticity of the vortex. The largest sensitivity for both the wind and temperature perturbation is located below 700 hPa, especially at the low level. The largest sensitivity for the water vapor perturbation is located below 500 hPa, especially at the middle and low levels. The horizontal adjoint sensitivity for all variables is mainly located toward the upper reaches of the Yangtze River with respect to the simulated meso-β-scale system in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces with strong locality. The sensitivity shows that warm cyclonic perturbations in the upper reaches can have a great effect on the development of the meso-β-scale vortex. Based on adjoint sensitivity, forward sensitivity experiments were conducted to identify factors influencing the development of the meso-β-scale vortex and to explore ways of improving the prediction. A realistic prediction was achieved by using adjoint sensitivity to modify the initial conditions and implanting a warm cyclone at the initial time in the upper reaches of the river with respect to the meso-β-scale vortex, as is commonly done in tropical cyclone prediction.

Analysis of a Group of Weak Small-Scale Vortexes in the Planetary Boundary Layer in the Mei-yu Front

A mei-yu front process in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on 23 June 1999 was simulated by using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5） with FDDA （Four Dimension Data Assimilation）. The analysis shows that seven weak small mesoscale vortexes of tens of kilometers, correspondent to surface low trough or mesoscale centers, in the planetary boundary layer （PBL） in the mei-yu front were heavily responsible for the heavy rainfall. Sometimes, several weak small-scale vortexes in the PBL could form a vortex group, some of which would weaken locally, and some would develop to be a meso-α-scale low vortex through combination. The initial dynamical triggering mechanism was related to two strong currents： one was the northeast flow in the PBL at the rear of the mei-yu front, the vortexes occurred exactly at the side of the northeast flow; and the other was the strong southwest low-level jet （LLJ） in front of the Mei-yu front, which moved to the upper of the vortexes. Consequently, there were notable horizontal and vertical wind shears to form positive vorticity in the center of the southwest LLJ. The development of mesoscale convergence in the PBL and divergence above, as well as the vertical positive vorticity column, were related to the small wind column above the nose-shaped velocity contours of the northeast flow embedding southwestward in the PBL, which intensified the horizontal wind shear and the positive vorticity column above the vortexes, baroclinicity and instability.

Variational Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Hourly Rainfall Observations for a Meso-βScale Heavy Precipitation Event During the 2002 Mei-Yu Season

Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.

MAINTAINABLE MECHANISM OF MESO-β SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM

By means of the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5(MM5)with a horizontal resolution of 20 km.the maintainable mechanism of Meso-β scale Convective System(Mβ CS)has been investigated on the basis of simulation of the temporal and spatial thermodynamics structure of the MβCS which occurred in Wuhan and its surroundings on 21 July 1998.The occurrence of the significant warm-core in the center of the MβCS happened in Changjiang River Basin between the Mufu Mountain and the Dabie Mountain.To the southern side of the MβCS,there exist the southwest low-level jet(LLJ)and the vertical secondary circulation in the low and middle troposphere respectively.In respect to the northern of the MβCS,the northwest jet emerges in the upper troposphere,accompanied with cold and dry atmosphere downdrafts,resulting in another secondary circulation.The foregoing mentioned vertical wind shear provides a favorable dynamical environment for the intensification and maintenance of the MβCS.Equally important,the latent heat release associated with the MβCS produces the warm center in the middle troposphere and the pressure falls.The pressure drop then accelerates air parcels toward the low leading to strong convergence as well as the intensified convection,establishing a positive feedback between the convection and the latent heat release,which is the thermodynamic mechanism of the development and maintenance of the MβCS.

Cause–Effect Relationship between Meso-γ-Scale Rotation and Extreme Short-Term Precipitation:Observational Analyses at Minute and Sub-Kilometer Scales

The cause–effect relationship between meso-γ-scale rotation and extreme short-term precipitation events remains elusive in mesoscale meteorological research.We aimed to elucidate this relationship by analyzing a rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta during the nocturnal hours of 15 May 2017 based on 6-min radar observations and 1-min rain gauge data.This rainstorm had a maximum hourly rainfall of 100.1 mm,with 26 stations recording hourly rainfall>60 mm h^(−1) in 5 h.Extreme heavy precipitation was produced in association with a convergence zone along the southern side of a synoptic low-level shear line,where southwesterly warm,humid airflows with precipitable water of>60 mm,little convection inhibition(<10 J kg^(−1)),and a low lifting condensation level(about 300 m)dominated.A meso-γ-scale vortex was quantitatively identified during the hour with the largest number of gauges observing extreme hourly rainfall.The vortex had a mean diameter of 6.1 km and a peak intensity of 3.1×10^(−3) s^(−1) during its lifetime of 54 min.The vortex initialized and remained inside the region of extreme rain rates(radar-retrieved rain rates>100 mm h^(−1)),reached its peak intensity after the peak of the collocated 6-min rainfall accumulation,and then weakened rapidly after the extreme rainfall region moved away.The radar-retrieved liquid water path was about five to seven times the ice water path and the specific differential phase(Kdp)below 0°C increased sharply downward during the lifetime of the vortex,suggesting the presence of active warm rain microphysical processes.These results indicate that the release of the latent heat of condensation induced by extreme rainfall could have contributed to the formation of the vortex in an environment with a weak 0–1-km vertical wind shear(about 4–5 m s^(−1))through enhanced lowlevel convergence,although the strengthening of low-level updrafts by rotational dynamic effects and short-term rainfall cannot be ruled out.

A Possible Dynamic Mechanism for Rapid Production of the Extreme Hourly Rainfall in Zhengzhou City on 20 July 2021

In this study,the unprecedented extreme rainfall event during 19-20 July 2021,which caused devastating flooding in Zhengzhou City and its nearby areas,is examined based on observational data analysis and WRF model 40-h simulations on 1-km horizontal resolution.The results show that the model successfully reproduces(i)major synopticscale weather systems(i.e.,the western Pacific subtropical high,the Tibetan high,two typhoons,and the Huang-Huai cyclone),(ii)convective initiation along the east to north edge of the Songshan Mountain,where orographic lifting is obvious,and(iii)subsequent formation of the convective storm producing the extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou.In particular,the model generates the maximum rainfall rate of 233 mm h^(-1)and 40-h accumulated rainfall of 704 mm,corresponding well to the observed extreme values of 201.9 mm h^(-1)and 818 mm,at nearly observed timing and location.Importantly,the model reproduces an intense quasi-stationary,well-organized meso-γ-scale convective system,surrounded by an arc-shaped convergence zone,allowing the development of convective updrafts in a three-quarter circle around the convective system,in a way similar to“multidirectional pumping,”attracting all associated precipitation overlaid and concentrated into the same trailing region to generate the extreme hourly rainfall over Zhengzhou.Our study emphasizes the significant contribution of the unique dynamic structure of the well-organized meso-γ-scale convective system to the record-high hourly rainfall.A possible dynamic mechanism for short-time extreme rainfall production is proposed.That is,the arc-shaped convergence zone of the mesoscale convective system,acting like multidirectional lifting pumps,transports precipitation from different directions into the same region,and thus produces the extreme rainfall.The results gained herein may shed new light on better understanding and forecasting of short-time extreme rainfall.