Study on a Mesoscale Convective Vortex Causing Heavy Rainfall during the Mei-yu Season in 2003

The strong heavy rainfall on 3–5 July 2003 causing the severe flooding in Huaihe River basin （HRB）, China is studied. It is noted that there are sometimes mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） in East Asia during the mei-yu season. Simulation results from the ARPS （Advanced Regional Prediction） data analysis system （ADAS） and WRF model were used to study the development of the mesoscale convective system （MCS） and mesoscale convective vortex （MCV）. It is confirmed that the MCV formed during the development of a previous severe MCS. A closed vortex circulation can be found below 600 hPa with a vorticity maximum in the middle troposphere. The evolution process of the MCV can be divided into three stages： initiation, maturation, and dissipation. During the mature stage of the MCV, a downdraft occurred in the center of the MCV and new convection developed in southeast of the MCV. The convergence and the tilting in the lower troposphere convergence and vertical advection in the middle troposphere were the main vorticity sources in the MCV initiation stage. Finally, a conceptual model between the mei-yu front and the embedded MCS and MCV is proposed. The mei-yu front was the background condition for the development of the MCS and MCV. A low level jet （LLJ） transported moisture and the weak cold air invasion via a trough aloft in the middle troposphere and triggering the severe convection. Furthermore, the intensified jet was able to result in the initiation of new ＂secondary＂ areas of convection in the eastern part of the MCV.

Initiation and Evolution of Long-Lived Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Second-Step Terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES IN EAST CHINA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Data from high-resolution satellites were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of mesoscale convective vortices(MCVs) in central and east China and the western Pacific Ocean region. The monthly variation in MCVs was significant. From May to October, MCVs were clearly affected by large-scale environmental conditions,including the South Asian summer monsoon, subtropical high and solar radiation, which resulted in clear changes in MCV spatial distributions from strengthening and weakening processes. Based on the analysis of diurnal MCV variations and the precipitation rate from May to October, MCVs were found to occur more frequently over the ocean than over land. MCVs near the Sea of Japan and northern South China Sea occurred during all types of weather. Ocean occurrences near land, such as the Ryukyu Islands, were categorized as morning-active MCVs. The hilly regions of southeastern China and North China Plain were characterized by afternoon-active MCVs. Limited to topography and the urban heat island effect, the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area had evening-active MCVs, while Changbai Mountain had nocturnal MCVs.

A Study of Structure and Mechanism of a Meso-beta-scale Convective Vortex and Associated Heavy Rainfall in the Dabie Mountain Area Part I: Diagnostic Analysis of the Structure

An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.

华北局地大暴雨过程中多个β中尺度对流系统发生发展对比分析

利用常规地面高空观测、多普勒雷达、风廓线、VDRAS(Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System)和NCEP再分析资料,对2018年8月5—6日副热带高压(以下简称副高)控制下华北一次局地大暴雨过程中多个β中尺度对流系统触发和发展机制进行了分析。结果表明:这次大暴雨发生在副高控制下,处于高温、高湿气团中,大气层结极不稳定。暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成,分别是太行山迎风坡上西南—东北向、华北平原地区保定一带南北向、保定至霸州附近西南—东北向和以雄安新区为中心东西向原地生消的准静止MCS-Ⅰ、MCS-Ⅱ、MCS-Ⅲ和MCS-Ⅳ,均属于β中尺度。在相似的环境中,不同中尺度对流系统触发机制有较大差异,太行山迎风坡上的MCS-Ⅰ是由近地层偏东暖湿气流在迎风坡与山风形成的辐合抬升触发;由辐射差异和前期强降水形成的局地冷池受MCS-Ⅰ影响再次加强后,其出流与环境风形成的两条地面辐合线分别触发了MCS-Ⅱ和MCS-Ⅲ,并组织对流沿辐合线呈带状发展;而超低空偏东风增强叠加冷池出流在地形抬升作用下促使沿山暖湿气团进一步抬升,使得原本消亡的MCS-Ⅰ再次重建。MCS-Ⅳ发展最旺盛、持续时间最长,是大暴雨中心的直接制造者,一方面MCS-Ⅱ与MCS-Ⅲ、MCS-Ⅰ与MCS-Ⅳ的两次合并过程,是MCS-Ⅳ增强、持久的重要原因;另一方面边界层偏东风急流为MCS-Ⅳ的发展提供了水汽和不稳定能量等有利条件,同时推动其左前方中尺度涡旋的发展,导致MCS-Ⅳ所在地的气旋性涡度大大增加,加强了以急流轴为中心的垂直次级环流发展,造成MCS-Ⅳ的发展维持,形成华北平原地区以雄安新区为中心的东西向大暴雨带。

A Numerical Study of the Evolution of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex on the Meiyu Front

The Advanced Research WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） model is used to simulate the evolution of a mesoscale convective vortex（MCV） that formed on the Meiyu front and lasted for more than two days. The simulation is used to investigate the underlying reasons for the genesis, intensification, and vertical expansion of the MCV. This MCV is of a type of mid-level MCV that often develops in the stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems. The vortex strengthened and reached its maximum intensity and vertical extent（from the surface to upper levels） when secondary organized convection developed within the mid-level circulation. The factors controling the evolution of the kinetic and thermal structure of the MCV are examined through an analysis of the budgets of vorticity, temperature, and energy. The evolution of the local Rossby radius of deformation reveals the interrelated nature of the MCV and its parent mesoscale convective system.

A CASE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING INTO A VORTEX

A case of mesoscale convective complex(MCC)which evolved into a vortex is documented in this paper.As the MCC entered into the dissipating phase,a well-defined spirally banded structure became visible in the satellite image. The blackbody temperature(TBB)of the residual cold-cloud-shield indicates the vortex existed in the layer from 400 to 250 hPa.According to the upper air analysis,the upper level vortex was an anticyclone.The MCC-generated vortex was visualized in the satellite images because it was located in the subtropical high where the wind field was very weak.

江苏一次锢囚状MCS和相关中涡旋MCV的观测分析

利用常规地面和高空气象观测资料,结合气象卫星云图和雷达回波,分析了2009年6月14日15—23时（北京时,下同）,造成江苏强对流天气的一个中尺度对流系统（MCS）的锢囚状特征的形成过程及其垂直结构。地面中尺度分析表明,雷暴高压东侧在飑前倒槽北端发展的闭合低压环流的东南气流将暖湿空气输送到冷性雷暴高压的北侧形成东南一西北向的暖舌,从而形成锢囚状的结构。长三角探空网资料的垂直结构分析表明,在对流层下部地面到850 hPa为冷性的雷暴高压,在对流层中部700 hPa为冷性的α中尺度涡旋（MCV）,而500 hPa已转变为暖性的MCV。静力学关系可以说明MCV仅仅存在于700~500 hPa的原因和MCS下冷上暖的热力结构密切相关。

昆仑山北坡“6·14”极端暴雨过程的中尺度对流系统特征分析

在全球变暖的背景下,昆仑山北坡极端暴雨频发且影响巨大,由于对其的观测和研究相对匮乏,使得该区域暴雨监测和预报难度大。理解其发生机理和关键影响系统是提高其监测预报的有效途径,对该区域防灾减灾意义重大。利用高时空分辨率的气象观测资料、GPS/Met大气可降水量(PWV)资料、风云卫星资料(FY-2H)和ERA5再分析资料,对2021年6月14—17日昆仑山北坡一次极端暴雨过程进行大尺度环流背景场和中尺度对流系统特征分析。结果表明:(1)此次暴雨过程,暴雨站数多、累积降水量大、局地性强并且极端性强,在和田地区出现3个极端暴雨中心,分别发生了短时强降水和连续性降水。其中短时强降水过程持续时间短,最大小时雨强达29.4 mm;连续性降水持续时间达3 d,小时雨强小于5 mm。本次极端暴雨发生的有利环流背景是双体型南亚高压在对流层高层维持,中亚低涡形成发展。在高低空急流共同作用下,高层强辐散、低层辐合促进大气垂直运动发展,500 hPa偏南气流、700 hPa切变线以及850 hPa偏东气流相互配合为暴雨提供有利动力配置。(2)对流层中层以西南路径和西南+南方路径水汽输送为主,低层主要以低空偏东急流携带水汽输送为主,中低层水汽输送路径形成耦合,促进本次极端暴雨的发展加强。极端暴雨发生前持续的水汽输送和强的水汽通量辐合中心,使得暴雨区大气可降水量(PWV)在降水前出现显著增湿聚集过程,PWV达30 mm。(3)列车效应型+合并加强型中尺度对流云团不断在暴雨站点上空生成发展并移过,是触发短时强降水的直接影响系统,站点位于对流云团黑体亮温(TBB)梯度最大处。中-β和中-α尺度对流云团发展维持以及涡旋状中尺度对流云带的持续覆盖,是导致暴雨站点发生连续性降水的关键系统。

A Simulation Study of the Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Rain Event

In this study, evolution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） within a Meiyu front during a particularly heavy rainfall event on 22 June 1999 in East China was simulated by using a nonhydrostatic numerical model ARPS （Advanced Regional Prediction System）. Investigations were conducted with emphasis on the impact of the interaction among multi-scale weather systems （MWSs） on the development of MCSs in the Meiyu frontal environment. For this case, the development of MCSs experienced three different stages. （1） The convections associated with MCSs were firstly triggered by the eastward-moving Southwest Vortex （SWV） from the Sichuan Basin, accompanying the intensification of the upper-level jet （ULJ） and the low-level jet （LLJ） that were approaching the Meiyu front. （2） Next, a low-level shear line （LSL） formed, which strengthened and organized the MCSs after the SWV decayed. Meanwhile, the ULJ and LLJ enhanced and produced favorable conditions for the MCSs development. （3） Finally, as the MCSs got intensified, a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV）, a mesoscale LLJ and a mesoscale ULJ were established. Then a coupled-development of MWSs was achieved through the vertical frontal circulations, which further enhanced the MCV and resulted in the heavy rainfall. This is a new physical mechanism for the formation of Meiyu heavy rainfall related to the SWV during the warm season in East China. In the three stages of the heavy rainfall, the vertical frontal circulations exhibited distinguished structures and played a dynamic role, and they enhanced the interaction among the MWSs. A further examination on the formation and evolution of the MCV showed that the MCV was mainly caused by the latent heat release of the MCSs, and the positive feedback between the MCSs and MCV was a key characteristic of the scale interaction in this case.

北京“23·7”极端强降雨特征和成因分析

利用北京地区加密气象站、补盲的北京市规划和自然资源委员会雨量站、双偏振雷达、风廓线雷达、GPS水汽等观测数据和ERA5再分析数据,对北京“23·7”极端强降雨阶段性特征和成因进行了分析。结果表明:“23·7”极端强降雨累计降水量(331 mm)和单点最大降水量(1025 mm)均打破历史纪录,最大雨强(126.6 mm·h^(-1))排名历史第二位,具有显著的极端性。强降雨可分为5个阶段,其中第Ⅱ和第Ⅳ阶段降水量分别占过程累计降水量的37.1%和39.7%,第Ⅳ阶段雨强更大,对应急流更强,高温、高湿特征也更明显。地形对降雨的增幅作用显著,降水量在海拔100~300 m山区迅速增加,极大值出现在海拔约400 m的山区,第Ⅱ(第Ⅳ)阶段山区平均降水量和小时雨强分别是平原的2.1(3.0)倍和2.0(2.7)倍;第Ⅱ阶段主要为地形对急流的直接抬升,第Ⅳ阶段为地形绕流辐合和直接抬升共同作用。7月31日上午(第Ⅳ阶段)边界层急流出口区与低空急流入口区耦合导致低层上升运动增强,促使西部山前β中尺度对流系统由块状发展成线状并有γ中尺度涡旋产生,该β中尺度对流系统北上时形成短暂的列车效应,引发了西部山区8个站次100 mm·h^(-1)以上的极端短时强降水。

东北冷涡下一次飑线和MCV的形成与水平涡度的关系

利用WRF中尺度数值模式,NCEP/NCAR分析资料,多普勒雷达观测资料等,对2016年7月25日一次东北冷涡下的飑线过程进行数值模拟,研究了飑线形成和维持与水平涡度的关系及飑线过程中中尺度对流涡旋(MCV)的形成机制,分析发现,高低层水平涡度逆时针旋转对本次飑线的形成和维持有很好的指示意义。(1)飑线发生前,高层渤海湾西侧出现水平涡度的逆时针旋转中心,并有较强的辐散配合,低层水平涡度为逆时针弯曲,为飑线产生提供了有利的上升运动条件。随后高层多个对流单体的水平涡度气旋式涡旋合并形成较大范围的气旋式涡旋结构,触发低层的上升运动,同时低层对流区前部形成一致的气旋式弯曲使得对流单体组织成带状结构,形成飑线。(2)飑线成熟时期高层水平涡度表现为统一大范围气旋式涡旋结构,低层则呈现典型的S型弯曲结构,水平涡度x方向的分量沿对流带从南至北表现为正负正,y方向的分量始终为正,并由对流带的中心向两侧减小,显示出水平涡度矢量旋转的方向对飑线影响的重要性。(3)由垂直涡度方程的分析得出,在飑线发展中期,MCV形成前,雷达反射率回波在500 hPa左右表现出明显的旋转,此时主要与500 hPa以上强的正涡度水平平流项及中层倾侧项和水平散度项有关,之后,在这几项的作用下使得中层风场产生气旋式旋转,形成MCV。

一次江淮地区MCV过程的数值模拟分析

本文在前期统计工作的基础上,选取了一次典型的中尺度对流涡旋(MCV)个例,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析其背景场特征,并利用WRF数值模拟结果分析其成因及其触发"二次对流"的可能机制。结果表明:MCV发生前,江淮地区处于200 h Pa强辐散场中,高层抽吸作用明显,500 h Pa江淮西北部短波槽槽后不断有冷空气南下,加强该地区大气层结不稳定,850 h Pa湖北至安徽中部有切变线活动,这种高低层配置十分有利于MCV生成及对流发生;MCV生命史各阶段垂直输送项和涡管倾斜项呈反位相分布,而水平平流项和辐合辐散项的作用基本是相互抵消的,垂直输送项和辐合辐散项是MCV生成阶段中低层涡度的主要来源;MCV引发的"二次对流"出现在其生成阶段,且位于其南侧,MCV发展成熟后,对流迅速减弱;MCV的生成使南侧西南低空急流加强,伴随水平涡度的变化,"二次对流"的发生发展与水平涡度对应的垂直环流上升支有直接联系。

“21·7”河南特大暴雨的中尺度系统活动特征

2021年7月17日至22日河南省遭遇了罕见特大暴雨过程,特别是郑州市在7月20日出现了极端降水事件。本文首先分析了有利的大尺度环流背景,然后采用多源高分辨率观测和再分析资料深入分析了此次特大暴雨过程中不同阶段的水汽来源以及中尺度系统的活动特征。此次特大暴雨过程主要分为三个阶段,其主要的中尺度系统包括:黄淮气旋、中尺度对流系统(MCS)以及与MCS伴随的中尺度对流涡旋(MCV)。第一阶段(7月17~18日)主要为分散性降雨,水汽主要来自于南海、东南沿海、西北太平洋、长江中游地区的近距离水汽输送和河套地区。影响河南地区的中尺度系统为黄淮气旋,其于7月15日11时(协调世界时,下同)生成河南的东北部,18日23时在河南西南部消亡,垂直伸展最大高度为1000~350 hPa,维持时间约为89小时。第二阶段(7月19~20日),随着西太平洋副热带高压的北抬和台风“烟花”的西进北移发展,西北太平洋的水汽贡献也逐渐增多。由于黄淮气旋中心移动到河南西南部,其北部东南气流影响河南大部分地区。二级地形(伏牛山)东部的局地对流发展为MCS。由于地形的抬升作用,对流系统中强上升运动的维持有利于低层气旋性切变的增强,从而诱发了对流层中低层(750~600 hPa)MCV的生成。MCV的增强发展又进一步促进了MCS的维持以及偏南气流的增强。偏南气流输送大量水汽有利于午后分散性强对流单体的生成,分散对流单体与原有河南中北部MCS的合并后增强发展,从而造成了郑州极端小时降雨的出现。第三阶段(7月21~22日),暴雨过程的水汽主要来自于西北太平洋地区,其主要影响系统是MCS。低层气流受到二级地形(太行山)的阻挡,地形东部边界强的水汽通量辐合有利于MCS不断与新生对流单体合并发展,从而在河南、河北交界区域产生较强的降雨中心。

A semi-idealized modeling study on the long-lived eastward propagating mesoscale convective system over the Tibetan Plateau

Based on a 16-warm-season statistical study on the mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)that were generated over the Tibetan Plateau(TP),11 long-lived eastward propagating MCSs of the same type were selected for a composite semiidealized simulation and a corresponding no-latent-heating sensitivity run by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Common evolutionary features and associated mechanisms of this type of long-lived eastward propagating MCS were investigated.Main results are as follows:(i)This type of MCS was generated in a favorable background environment which was characterized by a notable upper-tropospheric divergence south of an upper-level jet,a strong warm advection around a middle-level shortwave trough’s central area,and an instable convective stratification below the trough.Development of the MCS featured rapid increase of cyclonic vorticity in the middle and lower troposphere.The convergence-related vertical stretching and tilting were key factors for the cyclonic-vorticity’s production,and convection-related upward cyclonic-vorticity transport contributed to the upward extending of the MCS.(ii)During the vacating stage of the MCS,it first coupled with a quasistationary Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)over the TP’s eastern section,and then decoupled from the vortex.In the former stage,the MCS contributed to maintaining ascending motions and convergence associated with the TPV,which favored its persistence;whereas,in the latter stage,decoupling weakened the TPV-associated convection significantly.This reduced the upward transport of cyclonic vorticity notably,which,together with the negative tilting effect,finally led to the vortex’s dissipation.(iii)After vacating TP,the MCS first weakened due to the disappearance of strong direct sensible heating from the TP on its bottom,and then,under the favorable conditions associated with the shortwave trough over the eastern section of the TP,the MCS redeveloped rapidly.Convergence-related cyclonic-vorticity production in the middle and lower troposphere and upward transport of cyclonic vorticity due to convection governed the MCS’s redevelopment.(iv)Sensitivity simulation shows that latent heating was a necessary condition for the formation and development of the long-lived eastward propagating MCS.On the one hand,this MCS affected the TP’s eastern section and downstream regions directly by inducing precipitation;and on the other hand,it exerted effects on the precipitation over a wider range in the downstream regions by modulating large-scale circulations over and around the TP.

高空急流与副急流演变及其与河南2021年“21·7”特大暴雨的关系

利用中国气象局所提供的逐小时的站点降水资料与欧洲中期天气预报中心所提供的逐小时、0.25°(纬度)×0.25°(经度)的ERA5再分析数据,重点研究了产生郑州极端小时降水的关键天气系统,并对高空急流与副急流进行了动能收支诊断,研究发现:2021年“21·7”河南特大暴雨呈现出显著的阶段性特征,在郑州极端小时降水出现的时段内,强降水主要出现在河南北部的山区及山区的迎风坡周边,受地形响显著。位于河南上空,对流层高层的高压脊、对流层中层的低压倒槽以及对流层低层的水平切变线与中尺度对流涡旋是引发郑州极端小时降水的关键天气系统。处于南亚高压东北部的高空急流与副急流通过引发强冷平流使得位于陕西上空的对流层高层短波槽快速发展,该槽的斜压发展使得其槽前的暖平流显著增强,从而导致河南上空对流层高层的高压脊迅速发展并维持强高空辐散条件,这为郑州极端小时降水的出现提供了极为有利的背景环流条件。南亚高压东北部的高空急流与副急流呈现出显著的水平分布不均特征,其中,风速增强趋势与冷平流强度均在上层急流分岔点(1区)达到极大值,这为陕西上空对流层高层短波槽的快速增强提供了最有利的条件。动能收支表明,南亚高压东北部偏西风的水平动能输送是本区域内高空急流与副急流发展/维持的最有利因子,其动能主要来源于南亚高压北部边缘的高空急流区;在此阶段内,气压梯度力主要做负功,是最不利于高空急流与副急流发展/维持的因子。

桂林“5·22”大暴雨的MCS特征及对短时强降雨的影响

利用常规观测资料、风云气象卫星四号A星(FY4A)资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心全球第五代大气再分析数据集(EAR5)以及桂林和柳州多普勒雷达资料,分析2023年5月22日桂林极端大暴雨过程的中尺度对流系统(MCS)特征及其对短时强降雨的影响。结果表明,此次过程降水时段集中、局地性强、极端性大,强降水时段与对流云团的强烈组织发展阶段基本一致。在“北槽南涡”的环流背景下,高原低涡东移及其切变线诱发MCS生成,地面冷空气和辐合线使其强烈发展。降水回波强度强,质心低,降水效率高,强回波柱在桂林市区维持。MCS具有低层正涡度、负散度,高层负涡度、正散度的垂直结构,上升速度大,利于发展维持。MCS发展前期对流有效位能(CAPE)值迅速增大,桂林处于有利的抬升环境中,大气可降水量峰值出现时间与强降水发生时间对应。

山东较大范围致灾雷暴大风的多普勒天气雷达特征

利用多源观测资料对2005—2021年山东和周边地区较大范围致灾雷暴大风事件及造成此类事件的对流系统的雷达回波特征从两个尺度进行了分析,结果发现:17年间共发生41次较大范围致灾雷暴大风事件,年均发生2.4次,主要发生在6月。发生前,对流层中下层具有明显的条件不稳定,湿度条件中等略偏干,中层具有明显干层,垂直风切变中等略偏强。就导致较大范围致灾雷暴大风的对流系统整体而言,可分为Ⅰ型(单体可分辨形)飑线、Ⅱ型(条形)飑线、多单体风暴群和弱回波型飑线四类。后侧入流急流携带干冷空气进入飑线通过蒸发冷却降温增强负浮力是Ⅰ型飑线和Ⅱ型飑线产生致灾雷暴大风重要机理。后(右)向传播的多单体风暴群均伴有超级单体,其阵风锋一方面能够触发新生风暴,另一方面本身也可以产生致灾雷暴大风。强对流风暴本身较快的移动速度和可能的后侧入流急流在系统内由降水触发的下沉气流作用下产生的动量下传,导致非对称的下击暴流,增加了出现极端雷暴大风的可能性。弱回波型飑线产生的致灾大风最易被忽视。直接造成120站次致灾雷暴大风的对流分系统包括弓形回波、非超级单体强单体、超级单体、阵风锋和混合型五类,占比分别为30%、26%、6%、23%和16%。弓形回波和超级单体产生的致灾雷暴大风极大风速平均值最大,分别为28.2 m·s^(-1)和29.9 m·s^(-1)。强后侧入流急流和显著中层径向辐合特征可提前约20 min预报弓形回波的形成。致灾雷暴大风主要出现在弓形回波移动方向的中间部分和左侧部分。阵风12级及以上的极端雷暴大风由镶嵌弓形回波的波动型线状回波、弓形回波与中尺度涡旋的组合以及超级单体产生。具有深厚中层径向辐合的非超级单体强单体、强烈发展的飑线的阵风锋、地面冷锋与阵风锋的叠加(常伴有高空动量下传)均可能产生30 m·s^(-1)左右的雷暴大风。

四川盆地一次暖性西南低涡大暴雨的中尺度分析

2021年8月7—8日,四川盆地中东部出现大暴雨、局地特大暴雨,是重庆2021年度社会影响最大的一次暴雨过程。采用多源观测及ERA5再分析资料,对此次大暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:大暴雨发生在低槽移入四川盆地诱发暖性西南低涡背景下,具有显著的阶段性、跳跃性和极端性特征。大暴雨先后形成于西南低涡中心东南部、西南低涡东侧和西南低涡南侧暖湿的边界层辐合线附近。各阶段大暴雨均由移动缓慢、维持时间达3~6 h的β中尺度对流系统影响形成,暖湿不稳定和弱垂直风切变为β中尺度对流系统的形成提供了有利的环境条件。涡度分析表明,西南低涡的发展主要源于低空辐合及垂直涡度输送效应,但暴雨区的正涡度发展与西南低涡并不完全相同,水平涡度倾侧效应较为显著。第一阶段暴雨区正涡度主要源于对流层中低层西南低涡中心附近显著的低空辐合、涡度垂直输送及水平涡度倾侧效应;第二阶段和第三阶段暴雨区正涡度主要源于边界层辐合及边界层以上的水平涡度倾侧效应,边界层辐合触发暖湿大气中的中尺度对流活动促进了第二阶段和第三阶段大暴雨的形成。

绥化市一次冷涡背景下的强对流天气成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站资料和雷达资料,分析2020年6月28日冷涡背景下绥化市出现的强对流天气成因。结论如下:(1)高层脊前的干冷气流与低层的暖湿气流形成上干下湿不稳定状态,有利于对流的发生;(2)绥化地区低层湿度较大,偏东气流加强了水汽输送,有利于风雹天气产生;(3)探空图上有明显的“喇叭口”,对流有效位能、K指数、沙氏指数均指示着大气为不稳定状态,有利于冰雹的发生;(4)地面辐合线造成辐合抬升,触发强对流天气,湿舌前端形成对流系统和冷池,易出现风雹天气;(5)较强的基本反射率对应强降水区,“V”形缺口、垂直液态水含量大值区、高悬的强回波中心是冰雹的特征。