Determination of Kolmogorov Entropy of Chaotic Attractor Included in One-Dimensional Time Series of Meteorological Data

The 1970-1985 day to day averaged pressure dataset of Shanghai and the extension method in phase space are used to calculate the correlation dimension D and the second-order Renyi entropy K2 of the approximation of Kolmogorov's entropy, the fractional dimension D = 7.7-7.9 and the positive value K2 - 0.1 are obtained. This shows that the attractor for the short-term weather evolution in the monsoon region of China exhibits a chaotic motion. The estimate of K2 yields a predictable time scale of about ten days. This result is in agreement with that obtained earlier by the dynamic-statistical approach.The effects of the lag time i on the estimate of D and K2 are investigated. The results show that D and K2 are convergent with respect to i. The day to day averaged pressure series used in this paper are treated for the extensive phase space with T = 5, the coordinate components are independent of each other; therefore, the dynamical character quantities of the system are stable and reliable.

Variability of Sea Ice from 2008 to 2019 in the Bohai and Northern Huanghai Sea, China and the Relationship with Climatic Factors

Sea ice has important effect on the marine ecosystem and people living in the surrounding regions in winter.However,the understanding on changes of sea ice in the Bohai and northern Huanghai Sea(BNHS),China is still limited.Based on the images from Visible and InfraRed Radiometer(VIRR)onboard Chinese second generation polar-orbit meteorological series satellites FY-3A/B/C,the sea ice areas in the BNHS were extracted from December 2008 to March 2019,the spatio-temporal distribution charac-teristics of sea ice and the relationship between sea ice area and climatic factors were analyzed,then a preliminary sea ice forecast model based on the climatic factors was developed.The results showed that sea ice area in the BNHS in each December was relatively small and rather high sea ice occurrence probability appeared in the offshore areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea.The sea ice area in January or February each year was the largest,and sea ice occurred in most of areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea with rather high probability and in some areas in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay with relatively high probability.How-ever,the sea ice area in each March was the smallest,and sea ice was even melted completely occasionally,hence with relatively low occurrence probability in Liaodong Bay.As for the inter-annual variability of sea ice in the BNHS during the research period,the sea ice area was largest in winter 2010/11 and smallest in winter 2014/15,and annual sea ice area presented a decreasing trend.The at-mospheric temperature,western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),Asia polar vortex(APV),Asian monsoon circulation(AMC)and Eurasian monsoon circulation(EMC)were very important climatic factors for sea ice formation and they had significant correlations with sea ice area.Therefore,a preliminary sea ice forecast model was constructed by using eight climatic factors including western Pacific subtropical high area index(WPSHAI),western Pacific subtropical high intensity index(WPSHII),western Pacific subtro-pical high northern boundary position index(WPSHNBPI),Asia polar vortex area index(APVAI),Asian zonal circulation index(AZCI),Asian meridional circulation index(AMCI),Eurasian zonal circulation index(EZCI)and mean minimum atmospheric tem-perature(MMAT).The model was confirmed to have a robust forecast effect by using F-test and validated sample data.The results are useful for monitoring sea ice with remote sensed data and forecasting sea ice conditions by climatic indices.