Research on Market Risk Assessment of Dairy Farms: Taking 75 Dairy Farms in Heilongjiang Province as Examples

Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings： the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding.

Assessment of Child Labour Practices among Market Women and Food Sellers in Ife Central Local Government Area of Osun State,Nigeria

The study examined the forms of child labour practices common among market women and food sellers in Ife Central local government area of Osun State.It also determined the awareness level of market women and food sellers on the existing child labour law in Nigeria and finally examined factors contributing to child labour practices among market women and food sellers.The study employed the descriptive research of the survey type.The study population consisted of market women and food sellers in Ife Central local government in Osun State.The sample consisted of 170 market women and 80 food sellers in conveniently selected five markets in the study area.The researchers developed three research instruments for this study,namely:Knowledge of Child Labour Questionnaire(KCLQ),Forms of Child Labour Practices Questionnaire(FCLPQ),and Factors Contributing to Child Labour Questionnaire(FCCLQ).The three instruments were validated by the investigators,using Cronbach alpha which yielded 0.79,0.77,and 0.78 values for KCLQ,FCLPQ,and FCCLQ respectively.Data collected were analyzed by using simple percentage and Relative Importance Index.The results among others showed that domesticlabour ranked the first significantly influential forms of child labour practiced among market women and food sellers in Ife Central local government,Osun State with RII analysis of 0.810 and 0.850 respectively.The study therefore concluded that majority of the respondents have low awareness level on the existing child labour law hence government should intensify the creation of awareness of the child labour law among market women and food sellers in Ife Central local government,Osun State.

A Quantitative Security Metric Model for Security Controls:Secure Virtual Machine Migration Protocol as Target of Assessment

Quantitative security metrics are desirable for measuring the performance of information security controls. Security metrics help to make functional and business decisions for improving the performance and cost of the security controls. However, defining enterprise-level security metrics has already been listed as one of the hard problems in the Info Sec Research Council's hard problems list. Almost all the efforts in defining absolute security metrics for the enterprise security have not been proved fruitful. At the same time, with the maturity of the security industry, there has been a continuous emphasis from the regulatory bodies on establishing measurable security metrics. This paper addresses this need and proposes a relative security metric model that derives three quantitative security metrics named Attack Resiliency Measure(ARM), Performance Improvement Factor(PIF), and Cost/Benefit Measure(CBM) for measuring the performance of the security controls. For the effectiveness evaluation of the proposed security metrics, we took the secure virtual machine(VM) migration protocol as the target of assessment. The virtual-ization technologies are rapidly changing the landscape of the computing world. Devising security metrics for virtualized environment is even more challenging. As secure virtual machine migration is an evolving area and no standard protocol is available specifically for secure VM migration. This paper took the secure virtual machine migration protocol as the target of assessment and applied the proposed relative security metric model for measuring the Attack Resiliency Measure, Performance Improvement Factor, and Cost/Benefit Measure of the secure VM migration protocol.

An Assessment of Vehicular Emission in the Vicinity of Selected Markets in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria

This study assessed pollutants concentration at selected markets in Owerri. These markets were purposively selected after careful consideration of all major markets in the study area;the selected markets were considered to be more congested during the day as a result of open assess to road junctions coupled with a high density of vehicular movement, presence of offices, residential buildings, and human activities. Five air pollutants from vehicular emissions were monitored, namely: carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM 2.5) and particulate matter (PM 10). Assessments were carried out within 3 hours per dual diurnal section using approved standard methods which were converted to a 1-hour mean for the morning and afternoon period of sampling 7-10 am and 2-5 pm. These periods are known for the peak of human and vehicular movement within the study area. Results show that the highest level of CO concentration (0.293 - 0.387 ppm) was recorded at Alaba market and is less than the permissible limit of 35 ppm given by national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS). The highest range of CO2 (1153 - 1875 ppm) was recorded from Alaba market which is higher than the ambient standard of 314 ppm. The highest level of NO2 (0.116 - 0.297 ppm) was recorded from Relief market which is also higher than the permissible limit (0.100 ppm) of NAAQS. The highest range of particulate matter of PM 2.5 and PM 10 was recorded from Relief market (0.011 - 0.029 μg/m3) and (0.065 - 0.172 μg/m3) respectively and is far lower than the permissible limit (150 μg/m3) of NAAQS and WHO (base on target 1) standards. The study, therefore, concludes that there is a significant impact of emission from vehicles in the selected markets in Owerri metropolis as result indicates a high risk of health problems in the markets due to the high level of CO2 and NO2. It, therefore, recommends that an adequate mechanism should be put in place to decongest traffic density in the city especially near markets so as to have a substantial reduction in vehicular emissions and improve the livability of the citizens.

A Macroinvertebrate Multimetric Index for the Bioassessment of Wetlands Adjacent to Agriculture Fields in the Sanjiang Plain, China

Adjacent intensive agriculture disturbs the natural condition of wetlands.However, to assess the effect of this agriculture on wetlands, few studies have used indices based on aquatic invertebrates.Multi-metric indices(MMIs) have been successfully used to assess freshwater ecosystems worldwide and are an important management tool, but little is known about their applicability in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China.In this study, we developed a MMIs for aquatic invertebrates to assess freshwater wetlands in this region.The aquatic invertebrate assemblages were sampled in 27 wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain that included those in natural reserves and those affected by adjacent, intensive agriculture.Twenty-four candidate metrics were initially reviewed and screened before four core metrics were selected: total number of taxa, number of Hemiptera taxa, proportion of Gastropoda, and proportion of predators.Mann-Whitney U tests, Box and Whisker plots, correlation analyses, and redundant metric tests were used to assess the ability of metrics to distinguish among reference and impaired wetlands.Four ordinal rating categories for wetland were defined: poor, fair, good, and excellent.Of the impaired freshwater wetlands, 76.2% were in poor or fair categories.The MMIs was robust in discriminating reference wetlands from impaired wetlands and therefore have potential as a biomonitoring tool to assess the condition and to guide the restoration efforts of freshwater wetlands in Northeast China.

Spatiotemporal variations of ozone exposure and its risks to vegetation and human health in Cyprus:an analysis across a gradient of altitudes

Ground-level ozone(O_(3)) aff ects vegetation and threatens environmental health when levels exceed critical values,above which adverse eff ects are expected.Cyprus is expected to be a hotspot for O_(3)concentrations due to its unique position in the eastern Mediterranean,receiving air masses from Europe,African,and Asian continents,and experiencing a warm Mediterranean climate.In Cyprus,the spatiotemporal features of O_(3) are poorly understood and the potential risks for forest health have not been explored.We evaluated O_(3) and nitrogen oxides(NO and NO 2)at four regional background stations at different altitudes over 2014−2016.O_(3) risks to vegetation and human health were estimated by calculating accumulated O_(3)exposure over a threshold of 40 nmol mol^(−1)(AOT40)and cumulative exposure to mixing ratios above 35 nmol mol^(−1)(SOMO35)indices.The data reveal that mean O_(3)concentrations follow a seasonal pattern,with higher levels in spring(51.8 nmol mol^(−1))and summer(53.2 nmol mol^(−1))and lower levels in autumn(46.9 nmol mol^(−1))and winter(43.3 nmol mol^(−1)).The highest mean O_(3)exposure(59.5 nmol mol^(−1)) in summer occurred at the high elevation station Mt.Troodos(1819 m a.s.l.).Increasing(decreasing)altitudinal gradients were found for O_(3)(NO x),driven by summer–winter diff erences.The diurnal patterns of O_(3) showed little variation.Only at the lowest altitude O_(3) displayed a typical O_(3) diurnal pattern,with hourly diff erences smaller than 15 nmol mol^(−1).Accumulated O_(3) exposures at all stations and in all years exceeded the European Union’s limits for the protection of vegetation,with average values of 3-month(limit:3000 nmol mol^(−1)h)and 6-month(limit:5000 nmol mol^(−1)h)AOT40 for crops and forests of 16,564 and 31,836 nmol mol^(−1)h,respectively.O_(3) exposures were considerably high for human health,with an average SOMO35 value of 7270 nmol mol^(−1) days across stations and years.The results indicate that O_(3) is a major environmental and public health issue in Cyprus,and policies must be adopted to mitigate O_(3) precursor emissions at local and regional scales.

地方政府考核目标转变的经济效率与福利效应研究

构建一个合理且科学的考核体系,并引导地方政府更科学关注经济发展质量,是学术界亟须解决的重要问题之一。基于新开放宏观模型,通过构建一个包含地区竞争、市场分割及营商环境的动态随机一般均衡模型,从经济效率和经济福利两个维度来考察地方政府考核目标转变对经济发展质量的影响。研究发现:第一,传统考核机制会阻碍经济效率、经济福利水平的提升,地区竞争程度越大、市场分割程度越高、为优化营商环境努力程度越低,所引起的阻碍作用越明显;第二,在多元化考核机制下,地方政府短期目标导向能够缓解经济发展质量的负面影响,其中营商环境的优化有利于经济高质量的发展,但由于地区竞争与市场分割的存在,缓解作用并不能得到很好地释放。在经济高质量发展不断推进阶段,应尽快落实多元化考核机制,引导地方政府优化营商环境,并在一定程度上消除地区竞争与市场分割,以保证经济可持续发展。

东南亚水电国际合作重点国别市场环境评估研究

近年来,随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,中国与东南亚国家水电合作潜力不断释放,面对充满机遇且复杂多变的国际市场,如何科学合理地甄别目标国别的市场环境是国际合作成功的重要保障。基于PEST国际通用的战略环境分析工具,考虑与水电国际合作相关的重要影响因素,从政治环境、经济环境、社会环境、技术环境等4个方面,通过基于公开发布或合理测算的各类影响因素定性或定量的评估结果,采用无量纲化数据处理方式,科学建立东南亚重点国别市场环境指标评价模型,为评估东南亚国别市场环境风险、制定合作战略并做好市场布局提供技术参考。

新营商环境评估“促进市场竞争”指标的竞争法回应

世界银行开启的升级版营商环境项目B-READY体系中增加了唯一的新指标“促进市场竞争”,旨在从市场竞争的法规质量、促进竞争的公共服务充分性、促进竞争的关键服务效率三个方面,系统评估经济体的可竞争水平。促进市场竞争已经成为我国现代市场体系建设的基础和关键,但是“促进市场竞争”指标与我国竞争法体系存在兼容性问题。基于此,应当遵从“中国道路”的逻辑提出“促进市场竞争”指标的中国方案,分类推进“促进市场竞争”指标,同时试点并推广公平竞争指数。针对我国竞争法规制的不足,一方面要从推动国有企业参与公平竞争、优化反垄断法及其实施、促进知识产权保护和创新、保障政府采购领域的公平竞争等方面进行指标的对标性改进;另一方面要深入实施公平竞争审查制度、切实推动全国统一大市场建设、加强竞争执法和实施竞争倡导等方面促进营商环境的综合性提升。

基于多情景模拟的生态网络保护格局有效性评估——以桂林市为例

生态网络构建是维系区域生态系统完整性、缓解景观破碎化、限制城市扩张蔓延的有效手段。虽然已有研究针对生态网络的跨尺度衔接提出了基于尺度嵌套的规划思路,但土地扩张动态情景下这一思路对生态保护有效性尚需验证。通过设置“无生态网络”“非尺度嵌套生态网络”和“多尺度嵌套生态网络”三种约束情景,利用FLUS模型模拟了2030年桂林市土地利用格局变化,并选取景观指数,从市域和中心城区两个尺度,对生态网络保护格局的有效性进行了定量评估。结果表明:(1)桂林市土地利用类型中建设用地增量明显,2018年至2030年预计增加613.85 km^(2),变化幅度为46.52%,其次是水域,增加53.50 km^(2)、变化幅度为6.42%;(2)基于生态网络的规划政策及情景设置对区域建设用地扩张限制明显,而在多尺度嵌套的生态网络约束情景下,这种抑制作用将进一步增强,新增建设用地仅为237.49 km^(2),增长率为18.00%;(3)非尺度嵌套与多尺度嵌套的生态网络约束情景相比,后者在市域尺度及中心城区尺度上对遏制景观破碎化、改善景观连通性上都取得了更好的保护成效。研究揭示了将基于尺度嵌套的生态网络构建方案纳入未来土地扩张动态与机制中的有效性,为指导区域生态保护规划与实践、平衡保护与发展的矛盾提供了参考借鉴。

考虑注意力机制的CNN-LSTM高渗透风电并网暂态电压稳定性研究

为了能够快速且精确地判断出风电场接入电网后系统暂态电压稳定性,文章基于注意力机制提出一种卷积-长短时记忆网络(Convolutional Neural Networks-Long Short-Term Memory,CNN-LSTM)暂态稳定评估指标。为了更好地捕捉输入数据中空间和时间的相关性,基于核主成分分析(Kernel Principal Component Analysis,KPCA)进行特征降维;针对高比例的新能源电网中,整个系统的短路容量下降、短路电流水平攀升问题,提出了安装超导故障限流器的主动支撑措施,限制故障过程短路电流水平,维持并网点电压稳定。最后,在PSD-BPA中搭建含风电的IEEE39节点系统进行仿真计算和数据采集。结果表明,KPCA方案能有效筛选电力系统暂态稳定评估中重要度高的特征,所提评估指标具有更高的辨识能力,所提改进措施对高比例风电并网系统暂态电压稳定具有积极作用。

功能性行为评估对孤独症儿童问题行为的个案干预研究——Tau-U指标的应用

孤独症儿童问题行为相当普遍,其中自伤性行为、攻击性行为和自我刺激行为发生频率高,其破坏性和危险性令人担忧。研究通过功能性行为评估,分析学前(2-5岁)孤独症儿童三种典型问题行为背后的功能原因,设计相应的干预方案,采用单一被试A-B-A倒返实验设计对问题行为进行干预。采用单一被试研究数据分析指标Tau-U进行分析,数据显示,经过4周干预,三名学前孤独症儿童问题行为的发生频率显著降低,干预有效。研究表明应用功能性行为评估诊断孤独症儿童问题行为,据此实施干预可有效减少问题行为,促进其适应性行为建立。

基于最小二乘的AHP-CRITIC组合赋权的砼梁桥技术状况指标权重确定

为了得到符合实际情况的桥梁技术状况评估指标权重,将层次分析法(AHP)与CRITIC赋权法相结合,采用基于最小二乘的AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法求解组合权重。该方法选取0.1~0.9标度法替代传统的1~9标度法确定指标主观权重,采用CRITIC法确定指标客观权重,同时引入欧氏距离函数确定桥梁技术状况的主客观综合评估分数,最后利用最小二乘法经过合理运算得出理想的组合权重。结果显示:与其他组合赋权方法所确定的权重进行比较时,采用最小二乘的AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法所确定的指标权重与《公路桥梁技术状况评定标准》(JTG/T H21—2011)中的权重最为相近,同时由于引入了各指标实际评估分数得出组合权重,使得采用最小二乘的AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法所确定的指标权重更加符合实际情况。

冰灾下考虑多重不确定性的负荷聚合商市场力评估方法

在极端场景下,负荷聚合商可能会控制市场以攫取超额利润。为此,以冰灾为例,提出一种考虑多重不确定性的负荷聚合商市场力评估方法。首先,利用UGF(通用生成函数)来描述冰灾下架空线路、风电机组随机故障的不确定性;其次,通过聚合各类不确定性的标准概率函数,提出市场力评估算子以建立负荷聚合商节点市场力评估模型;最后,基于出清模型的结果,构建时空市场力指标体系以辨识具有高市场力水平的关键负荷聚合商以及相应的关键时段。算例结果表明,该方法有效量化了冰灾下负荷聚合商的市场力水平,处于负荷水平较高区域的负荷聚合商在覆冰严重的时段更容易行使市场力。

基于胜任力理论的高校学生精英足球裁判评价指标体系构建研究

足球裁判是足球运动发展中的重要组成部分,构建科学合理的评价指标体系是综合谛视裁判发展与培养质量的理论基础与重要依据。基于胜任力理论,本文运用文献资料法、德尔菲法、层次分析法、数理统计法构建高校学生精英足球裁判评价指标体系,其结果为:知识、技能、自我形象、动机和个性5个维度为一级指标,另外包含15个二级指标、40个三级指标。实证研究表明,参考各指标内容开展足球裁判评价切实可行,评价重心聚焦于足球理论知识、运动训练知识、执裁能力、运动能力、自我提高内驱力、心理特征等因素。

数据资产质量评估研究和实践分析

自国家将“数据”列为新型生产要素后,实现数据资产质量的智能评估和闭环式质量管理变得至关重要。本文以数据资产质量评估为主题,通过分析研究数据资产评估和管理现状和挑战,系统探讨数据资产质量评估的原理、方法和模型,并引入了质量调整系数以提高评估结果准确性,以优化数据资产估值理论和方法,落地数据资产质量评估应用试点,推动数据资产价值实现。

平衡计分卡下公共体育场馆服务绩效管理指标体系构建——基于德尔菲法的应用

公共体育场馆是推动全民健身国家战略深入实施的物质载体,而公共体育场馆绩效管理是促进全民健身事业健康发展的重要动力源。本文运用层次分析法、德尔菲法对我国公共体育场馆服务绩效管理进行探究,旨在构建公共体育场馆服务绩效评价指标体系。根据平衡计分卡的原理与公共体育场馆服务使命,本研究从公民、财务、内部运营、学习与成长四个方面,提炼出22项评价指标。经分析发现,公民维度和内部运营维度指标重要性较大,健身服务满意度、健身设施满意度、活动开展满意度、公民健身参与度、公民投诉率、营业收入、净利润、组织管理能力、突发事件处理能力、体育活动组织情况、员工素质、员工培训次数是影响公共体育场馆服务绩效提升的重要因素。因此,提升公共体育场馆服务绩效应重视上述指标对应工作的改进。

电力市场环境下需求侧资源评估与调控综述

随着高比例新能源接入以及尖峰时段电力需求增长,中国电力供需平衡压力日益加大,亟需深入挖掘需求侧资源调节潜力,建立健全完善的电力市场机制,推动新型电力系统下“源随荷动”向“源荷互动”转变。首先对需求侧资源进行多维梳理,并总结了其参与的市场类型,接着从需求侧资源可调潜力量化评估、需求侧资源聚合调控、需求侧管理系统装备3方面总结需求侧资源评估与调控的技术进展,最后结合新型电力系统要求,对市场环境下的需求侧资源利用提出一些建议。

碳排放权价值评估探析

为控制二氧化碳等温室气体过量排放,聚焦探索构建碳排放权交易市场,碳排放权合理定价是发展成熟碳市场的核心问题;我国碳市场发展不成熟,碳排放权价格低于其内在价值,准确评估碳排放权价值是研究热点。运用对比研究法,分析不同学者所用评估方法的优缺点;从基础评估方法、期权定价模型、PCV模型、影子价格法四方面分析碳排放权价值评估困境和改进方向。结果表明:公平原则分配方案和单一影响因素分配模型在省域和行业间配额分配效率低,引发碳价频繁波动,难以准确预测未来收益额;评估方法因数据虚报和缺失、参数过多、假设与我国碳市场冲突等方面在评估时适用性差;忽略省域隐含碳测算,核算不全面影响评估准确性。基于研究结果,提出在未来评估碳排放权价值时,应从构建多因素配额分配模型或将配额分配方案组合、优化评估方法、合理测算贸易隐含碳、区块链大数据技术应用碳交易流程等方面深入研究,实现碳排放权合理定价。

电价改革形势下电网企业代理购电风险分析及应对策略研究

为改变电力短缺的现状,继续全面深入推进电价市场化改革,电网企业逐步进行用电侧改革,积极组织开展代理购电业务。在调研电力代理购电业务相关政策规则的基础上,分析了代理购电业务关键信息以及业务开展过程中可能遇到的不确定因素,对代理购电业务全流程风险进行识别;设计了电网企业代理购电业务全流程风险指标体系,构建了代理购电业务风险综合评估模型,实现全方位的风险感知与评估;最后,提出了电网企业应对风险的策略,以期为电网企业代理购电业务的开展提供理论指导。